The 2021 “My Guys” Episode! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/20

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All three of my my guys this year can be had after the eighth round of fantasy football drafts. And the last two. Discount drafting. Yeah, the last two my guys that I have today are both after the 10th round. And so my second my guy, look, timing is everything. You ever heard that, you know? Timing is everything. Sometimes things just need to come together in the right time. Sometimes you could be a little early.

A little late. Timing is everything. Like how you wrote him on the board before me. Tyler Higby, Rams tight end is my second my guy. He's had him on the board forever. No, my point is that I love this guy. And I completely agree. He's a phenomenal target and a great my guy. Yes, the Higbeast himself. Look, I was completely out on him last year. I spent the entire off season pushing back against breakout hopes for Tyler Higby.

I didn't believe that the season-in trend where he was like the tight-in one, five, three, nine, one. He ended that year. I didn't think it was enough to, you know, go all in on him last year with Gerald Everett coming back into the fold after the injury. But this year, he is a my guy due to the breakout potential combined with the fantasy draft value of picking them up as the tight-in 12 in drafts after the 10th round.

Let's start with the argument for, look, you know Gerald Everett's gone. So that's a piece of the puzzle, right? Sean McVeigh came out and said, hey, Tyler is the guy and going to be an intricate part of this offense. And that offense is changing. That offense has Matthew Stafford at quarterback. Everett's gone, but Josh Reynolds is gone. And Matthew Stafford is going to do more for the tight-in position than Jared Gough does. In three out of the last four years in Detroit,

Lions' tight-in saw more than 21% of the team's targets. It was Matthew Stafford on the other end of a lot of the Hawkinson breakout last year. This is a team that in Detroit, he had Kenny Galladay, Marvin Jones, Golden Tate for years. He had elite wide receiver options. He still involved the tight-in position and gave them a large target share. So we've seen the sample size that...

got people hot and bothered about Tyler Higby two years ago. So we know that in a given stretch, he can go out and deliver elite tight-in numbers. But what I like about him is when I look at tight-ins and tight-in breakouts, I'm not looking for PPR hope. I'm looking for players that can do the George Kittle, Noah Fant, Mark Andrews, big playability. And even last year,

With Gerald Everett, he was in the top half in yards after the catch. He had the six most 20 plus yard receptions at the position. So you get big plays from Tyler Higby. So I'm really, really excited about the value and upside. I know, Jason, you're in the same boat. We've liked Higby since the birth of the off season. Tyler Higby has been on our radar as, well, you know, this team is, it's his tight end room now. And, you know, everything at camp has looked.

outstanding. So I'm really excited about what he offers fantasy players who miss out on the Kelsey Waller Kiddle. Just go Higby late like we did in the mock draft. Yeah, I mean, I think some of the worst picks right now are the mid-late.

tight ends who are all going to disappoint but take you away from taking a really valuable prospect at running back or wide receiver. When you're drafting a Dallas Godder, it's a matter of value for Higby. I don't think any of us think Higby is going to be the number one tight end. But when it allows Higby, what he does is he lets the rest of your roster be great. And then he's better than some of the tight ends you bypassed. What's the cost on Hockinson right now? He is a fifth round. So I have.

A higher fantasy projection for Tyler Higbee than T.J. Hawkinson. Oh, my. So, like, the end-of-year fantasy production is, I have, just barely, but he is higher. So if there's even a question that you believe that those two guys could be close together and you get one five rounds later, like you said the cost on Hawkinson is probably prohibited for you. Yeah. Just because of the wide receivers you love in the fifth round. Yeah, it's true. So that's not the same for the wide receivers you love in the 10th?

That is not the same for the wide receivers I love in the tent. That is true. All right. My second, my guy, I am so excited about this one. I just think he is being completely disrespected because of emotions. And that is Clyde Edwards Allaire. Is he your Clyde guy? He's my Clyde guy. Chiefs running back coming into his second year. Rider, Clyde. Ryder Clyde. Okay. Okay. Clyde or die?

Clyder die? Clyder die. What about Clyde or Clyde? No? Did we mind it? Wait, I've got it. My guy. My guy Clyde Edwards-A-Layer. Let's go back to the first one. Look, he's a very, very safe player, and I think he has an incredibly high ceiling. Here's a reminder of his rookie year. Sadness, disappointment, excruciating pain. He sucked, except not really.

He had 1,100 yards. And before he got injured in week 12, he was the RB 11 through that time. He was just disappointing because people were taking him number four. In the Sleeper Bowl last year, at the number four spot, we had an argument between Alvin Cabera and Clyde Edwards-Aler. When you draft someone that high and they're the running back 11 and then they get injured, you're just, oh, man, he's a complete disappointment. But his floor is as high as any player outside of the top five picks.

but his ceiling is higher than most everyone's, and there are two main reasons that I love his ceiling. His ceiling to me is based on touchdowns and receptions. The touchdowns, well, look, he's safe, okay? He practically had none. He had four rushing touchdowns. So, like, maybe there's, well, I worry, maybe, uh, Daryl William meets into the goal line. So what? Who cares? He's, right now he's being drafted as the running back 14.

So he was the running back 11 last year with four rushing touchdowns through that stretch. So, but what if, just what if, I don't know, on this great offense? What if he scores like a league average touchdown rate? He had 43 touches for every touchdown. He had 100 snaps per touchdown. That is horrifically bad. Here's an example of how bad it was. He had nine carries inside the five yard line. That is the exact same number as this four pack of all stars. Malcolm Brown, Peyton Barber.

Leonard Fournett and Jordan Howard. Jordan Howard is unstoppable. That is the one. Yeah. They all had nine five zone attempts and they all turned them into four plus touchdowns. Four for everyone, five for four net. And Clyde Edwards-Alair had one. And do you guys remember why the Chiefs lost the Super Bowl? Patrick Mahomes sure does. It's because their offensive line sucked. Yeah.

I mean, they were terrible. And what did they do this offseason? They traded for Orlando Brown. They signed big money contract for Joe Tuny. They drafted Creed Humphry. They're getting COVID-opt-out Laurent Duvernay Tardief back. Their offensive line is one of the most approved in the league. So it's just better rushing lanes, better goal-line opportunities. So I think he has the, I believe he gets like seven rushing touchdown, just a league average. I'm not talking 10-12, and that will already catapult him up. So that's one reason. And the other reason is pass-catching.

He only had 36 receptions last year in his rookie season, and he is a pass-catching specialist. He's not a guy like Josh Jacobs who was good at catching the ball in college. That was his Trump card. That was his calling card. I mean, he was a pass-catching back. And, of course, as a rookie, he wasn't used that much, 55 targets, 36 receptions.

I'm not letting you get away with that one. No, no, no. I wouldn't want to. You were faster than me. You won that race. And the Chiefs beat reporters are saying that Clyde Edwards Allaire has run more routes in the middle of the field, that he's got a more sophisticated route tree. I wanted to see what is the average bag, not just for Clyde, but for Antonio Gibson, for camakers of yesteryear and for the future. I want to see what is the average rookie running back who is fantasy relevant? What happens to their just normal target volume? I took a look at 458 rookies.

And I narrowed them down to this criteria because I wanted them to be relevant and not too noisy. Just running backs who had at least 10 fantasy points a game, who played in at least 10 games, who had fewer than 80 targets. So they weren't Sequin Barclay, basically, rookie year. And of that group, 70% of them increased an average of 1.2 targets a year, or a game, so 20 targets a year.

So that's just the average. That's not to say they're great at catching the ball bad. That's just what happens from rookie year to sophomore year for running backs. And he's above average in that skill. So I think the fact that his targets could go up and his touchdowns could go up. His ceiling is astronomical. He's a super young guy. He's 22 years old. You are 100% right with the emotional reaction to him because over the last 10 years, there have been 14 first round running backs. Only three have.

Rookie backs, sorry, 14 rookie first round running backs. Only three of them have not delivered on ADP. And he was 15 spots lower than where he was drafted at the running back position. He was drafted, like you said, it was up at RB6 last year. He finished at 21. That is an emotional toll because for some, they're going to make a resignation. They're going to make a...

Well, that just didn't work out. Like you didn't get Christian McCaffrey. You didn't get Sequin Barclay rookie year. You didn't even get Kareem Hunt's rookie year. You got a disappointing feeling week after week because you thought you dropped him there.

He's got to win you weeks. And you didn't get weak winning weeks. If he was a fifth round draft pick last year, he'd be in the first round this year. You'd go, what a great rookie season he had. And he's on Patrick Mahomes team and upgraded offensive line. He's going to be great. But there's disappointment. And this is something I just found interesting. I found this last night. I did not know this. So obviously he's very young. He's 21 years old as a rookie. He's still a full year younger than Najee incoming. That's always so funny. I know. Still. Still. And always will be.

Andy Reed has had a 21-year-old rookie running back before, who played his entire rookie season as a 21-year-old, who had exactly four rushing touchdowns. Oh, man. And had exactly 55 targets. The same numbers. Yes? Same one. LaShawn McCoy's rookie season was four rushing touchdowns and 55 targets as a 21-year-old coming into his 22-year-old season.

He goes to seven rushing touchdowns and 90 targets finishes as the running back two. He just wasn't touchdown dependent last year. And so that's the most compelling argument to me is he didn't score. He was still fantasy relevant. If he scores, he could go nuclear. And he's at the two three turn right now. He's the running back 14. Get Chris McCaffrey and Clyde Edwards Allaire and then smash wide receiver. So Clyder die this year? Clyder die. All right, Mike. You are back up. All right. Guy number two. This one.

Claypool, I don't think it was a surprise. This one should not be a surprise either. Either. Either. Either. Either. Either. What do you go with? I go either, usually. Unless I want emphasis. If I want emphasis, it's either one. Okay. That's true. It's Tyler Lockett, wide receiver from the Seattle Seahawks. I was hanging out with my D&D crew last night, and they were asking me, like,

Are you to the point where a Seahawk can be one of your my guys? I said I can neither confirm nor deny that. Neither confirm or denies. Yes. Ah, man. This is a situation going on over here. But in fact, a Seattle Seahawk is one of my my guys this year. It is Tyler Lockett. He is still a big part of this offense. They are committed to him, so committed to him. They gave him a four-year extension worth almost $70 million.

And it was a tale of two seasons, absolutely for Tyler Lockett. But let's go back, let's paint the picture. In the last three years, he has seen his receptions and his targets rise every year. I think part of the, what's interesting here for Tyler Lockett in the fifth round is he was a much later breakout than what you normally see. Like he wasn't a second year breakout. He wasn't a third year breakout.