Have we swung the pendulum too far on running backs??

This tip is called the pendulum swings every year. And we talk about this from year to year that whatever happens last year is what everyone expects to happen next year, except that doesn't happen this year. That happened two years ago, four years from now. Huh? And I want to focus on what we saw last year, what worked last year, what didn't work, and how to take advantage of it for this year. So last year, the early first round. We only had three running backs drafted. It was super wide receiver heavy because that's what worked two years ago. That meant that all the stud running backs were pushed down. Saquan Barkley, Derek Henry, Jemir Gibbs, Kairn Williams. These were the league winners last year. And they were all drafted at the very end of the first or most of them into the second round as people were gobbling up wide receivers. And the second round, the rest of the second round, when you were getting kind of the second tier of wide receivers, they all busted.

Then last year happened. It played out, and it wasn't the wide receivers that everyone was drafting early that dominated, but it was the running backs that dominated. The running backs just stayed healthier last year than they usually do. The top wide receivers got injured more than they usually. C.D. Lamb was injured. Pooka was injured. AJ Brown. Chris Olave. Or they just disappointed. Tyree Kill was the number one pick. Poof. He stunk. Marvin Harrison was supposed to be the hotness in the first round. It turned out he was a bust pick. What that means is we try to do whatever won last year. So this year...

Since running backs won last year, we should all draft running backs. Everyone's drafting running backs. Look at the average draft position. It's saying that's what won last year, running backs. So grab the running backs. Except that isn't how life happens. Life is chaotic year to year. And while it could absolutely repeat, running backs could be the best. It could also be the opposite. But what we know is that the draft cost is going to follow the pendulum. The pendulum and whatever happened last year. So this year, not surprisingly, is therefore the opposite of last year. On average, across all platforms, there are only three wide receivers being drafted inside the top 10 ADP. Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson, and C.D. Lamb, you know, on average from platform to platform. And everybody's focusing on the running mix again. So my recommendation this year is go against that grain. If you're a late round first, you know, if you're a second half of the first round draft pick, I'm going to go against the grain. I'm going to focus on the top wide receivers that are being pushed down, not because they are better.

But because they're the better bet, statistically speaking, instead of first round running backs and second round running backs that now have yellow flags, a lot of them. Like Ashen Genti, okay, I know I know he's the hotness, but he's got some yellow flags. We talked about this on the running back show. He's a rookie on a bad offense that we haven't seen before. Jonathan Taylor, Bucky Irving, maybe even CMC. These guys are right now, I think, being. overdrafted, but what is more important is that's pushing the value down on wide receivers. So Amundrauss St. Brown, Puka, Neighbors, Nico Collins, Brian Thomas Jr., A.J. Brown, Drake London. They are all being drafted at the 1-10 or later deep into the second round. And I feel like if I'm just looking statistically, not talent of the player and what I believe, but just like you've got to make bets that you're trying to win the majority of time. It seems like the value to me,

is there. So in this specific draft, if I'm drafting at the end of the first round, I'm not going to fall trapped to the ADP and draft questionable running backs over stud-wide receivers.