Fantasy Football - Early Top 15 RB Rankings + Pre-Draft Vibes - Podcast for 4/14

Did I say it wrong? He said it interestingly. Okay. However, I said it, that's what he is, because he's an interesting player. You know, Andy ran through the numbers of, like, on average, you know, the running backs in the top 15, top 15 are getting 60 targets. Cook is at 40. He's never had 60. This is not someone who's just, you know, hitting you with the PPR scam, just patting those points at the end of the half or at the end of the game. That's not been the game. It's just, he just, he's so dominant on the ground. And the touchdown regression, that never showed up. They just, they kept using him the same exact way. But he feels, oh, I, James Cook is, it's frustrated because he feels more fragile to me. But then you watch him play football. You're like, that's dumb. You should not have any concerns about him. Do you mean physically?

Or his consistency. Like physically fragile? No, no, no, no. I'm not even talking about his size. I'm talking about how he's utilized in an offense. Like it, he's, it's more like Derek Henry. It is a, that's a good confidence. And he's 190 pounds. Yeah, that's the weird thing is he's, he has not. He led the league, right? Yeah, in rushing, I believe he did. Yeah. So I mean, the other thing that's like, like Derek, what did I say for Cook for targets? Do I say 40? He had 40 targets. Yeah. Henry's a 21. So I get that that's a sizable gap, but it's like.

Both of those are not numbers that are that you would typically expect from a guy in the top five. He had 11 top 10 finishes. So only CMC had more, which is like the anti-fragility argument, is that if you finished in the top 10 that many times, you actually were the most reliable. He was pretty dominant all season long. Yes, he also played every single game. I didn't expect him to pay him and then he would just walk into the shoes that they paid him to. to walk into. Yeah, the size of the contract they gave him based off of how much work they were allowing him to take didn't seem to match and they corrected that. I mean, the nice thing is, I agree with you, Mike. He's always the scariest pick to me because it's like undersized, not super involved in the passing game. Do not want to play against him though. No, no. I mean, he's on a great offense. That's the one thing that we know is that Josh Allen and the bills, they're going to score a lot of touch on. So his opportunities to have.

A lot of touchdowns is much better than, say, Bijan's. But he's always the one that I'm holding my breath when I draft, even though he is literally leading the league in rushing. Yeah, I'm trying to change that. That's why I got him where he's at. I think he's, you know, we have consistency on the offense with Brady now. So I'm pretty excited about another solid season from James Cook. I don't think DJ Moore is going to talk me out of him in any capacity. You're always going to have Josh Allen as a threat to steal some of those goal line TDs, but over the last two years, it's been wild. Devon, ETN at number six. We can't just flip them? No, good day, you're just going to confuse us. See, we had to do it. That's the funny thing about it. We had to do it with A-Chant. Yep, yeah. Because when he was coming out, he was A-Chane. He was A-Chane. He was A-Chane, and then he corrected it. So.

Anything to do with A-chan gets corrected. Devon A. Chan is 24 years old. I got him at 5. Jason and Mike at 6. He had 11 plus fantasy points in every single game he played last year. He was the picture of consistency. He was one of the only watchable parts of that team. I mean, his consistency is outrageous. You look at just his game log last year, and his worst game was double-digit fantasy points. The worst. No real bad games the entire season, an A inconsistency. Now he is finding himself in a situation where you expect the offense to be bad. I think that this will be a bottom third offense. However, he is all of it. You know, he's going to catch a million passes this next year. And I don't know how it doesn't work when you are so good at pass catching at the running back position. That's the one area where I think you can be on a poor team.

and still succeed for fantasy because if you're down, you're just getting dump-offs like crazy. 1,350 rushing yards to go with it. This will be a team with a brand new quarterback, a brand new head coach and offensive coordinator. Probably two rookie wide receivers we'll be talking about after the draft. I don't know what their names will be, but they'll probably draft at least two worth talking about because they don't have anybody else. No more Tyreek Hill, no more Jalen Waddle. And we will go into the season really questioning their offensive capability. The nice thing about that is, I feel like we're probably only going to be able to be pleasantly surprised with the expectations. Because you just said it, and you've been saying it all offseason. I don't necessarily think the dolphins are going to suck on offense, because they did suck on offense. And H.N. was awesome. So I think that Malik Willis is a – I liked him, right, in the off season. So I think he – there's the possibility that we get surprised in a positive way. A. Chan, to me, is still one of those guys that can finish it.

number one at the position. Not everybody's going to agree with that, but I believe it's very possible with his consistency and big plays. So number seven, Omarine Hampton. Okay. All right. Omarine Hampton, I got him at eight. Jason at seven. Mike at 10, a little bit more of a disparity here. He got it going, started to get it going in week three. Najee Harris got hurt. Top ten finishes in weeks three and four. Then he gets hurt in week five and you don't see him again until week 14. They had established other running backs in the offense. He was not fully healthy. Doesn't really have a big fantasy finish to the year. And here he is at seven. Yeah, it takes a lot of projecting here. He hasn't done it yet. We don't know that he's going to have the workload that you would hope to be drafting him as like the running back seven.

But the projection for me is very easy. The dude is awesome. I mean, as a prospect coming out of college, he was a top tier. He's an S-class type of running back to me. The fact that he hasn't done it yet means that I think there will be value in the draft. I don't think he's going to, you know, he. He could very well finish super high. I think the offense is good. Justin Herbert is good. Their offensive line, they got the best center in the league out of nowhere. They're getting their left tackle and right tackle back. I'm just very bullish about the opportunity and the player. So it is projection to say, I think he's going to get the workload. That's the scary part, is what if it's more of a time share than we hope or want?

When I was looking at the top 15 running backs and we, you know, we rank beyond 15 to get to our consensus. It was very clear that there's only so many names where you can create the narrative and the path and the story of how it's going to go extremely well. From a workload perspective, offense, touchdown opportunities, good team. Hampton's in that category. There's not, you drop down this list. There's certain guys that you just can't make the case that they're going to be everything for their team. He certainly could be. Underdog ADP has them at RB10. That would be kind of the value you're potentially talking about. In your situation, this is a borderline first round running back for fantasy. Yeah, that's how I view them. And I can definitely see it. I want it to happen. Let me be very clear. I really want it to happen. I don't know why I'm as nervous, but I think it's just, like you said, we didn't get to see a lot last year. They were handed in the keys. He could have been a fantasy MVP.

Had he been healthy? You didn't see a lot, you know, at the very beginning, when he had to get everything. Like he wasn't as efficient on the ground, you know, what of his first five games, he had one huge game, the 12th or 128, including a 54-yard run. But it's like each other, each of the other four games, he's 3.7 yards of carrier or fewer. Now, they had offensive line struggles. So I think that's all a part of it. And you had, as it seems ridiculous to be like, okay, we're talking about Hampton, a first round NFL pick. And then we got Kamani Vidal Sassoon, who is just, feels like he should be an afterthought. But he was quite good for the team. And Harbaugh was talking about quite a bit, although, you know.

This Harbaugh really talks up his players. They bring in Keaton Mitchell and free agency. I think Hampton's going to be like a workhorse, but I'm a little more hesitant compared to you guys. Number eight, Kenneth Walker the third. Yeah, baby. Jason and I have him at nine. Mike at seven. Surprise is not one. Underdog. ADP is nine where Jason and I have it. I've got a few months, Jay. Yeah, let me craft the narrative. You know, we've talked, I think, the most about Ken Walker of all the names on this entire list. So I don't, I don't know how much we need to get into it. My hesitation is only that it has been lined up for him to succeed many times in the past and something gets in the way of it in terms of being an every week dominator as opposed to an occasional week dominator.

I think we are all waiting to see is Mahomes going to be back for week one? Is this offense going to get back on track to be what they are supposed to be? Nine is not disrespectful. Nine is good. I'm happy with nine. It's kind of disrespectful. I mean, for the RB22 last year? For the Super Bowl MVP. Oh, my God. Yeah, like Sony Michelle? Well, you really liked Sony Michelle after it was a Super Bowl MVP? I did, and I learned my lesson and I've changed. You went in on the wrong guy. Yeah, I mean, this is obviously tough. It should work. It should work. Everything's lined up for him. You know, his rookie year, he was the running back 16, then the running back 19 last year, the running back 22. And there's always been, whether it's injury or Charbonnet or whatever, something getting his way. The money they gave him was so much that I just don't, I don't think that there's any world where he doesn't dominate.

total touches. He could still get injured, but on a good offense with Andy Reed, with that investment, I am in. I am willing to get hurt. Yeah, there we go. That's a guy. I say all this. I mean, I've got, he's one of my keepers, Mike. My guy. You know what I mean? My keeper. Sure. So I wonder what... I'd love to have you dunk on me all year long while he scores points for me. I wonder what the targets will look like. Because I... Went back to look. So Kareem Hunt, year two for him, which that was essentially the Mahomes first year. So it was, you know, not his rookie year, but his sophomore year. And going from Alex Smith to Patrick Mahomes, Kareem Hunt dropped from 63 to 35 targets. Now, there's a game disparity, but there's, that's the only way I think it goes sour, as we don't, if we're not getting like a 10% target share, then you'll be more like the running back 10. Okay.

Yeah, that'll be something. And that might, what happens in the draft, whether Sidique or Lemon or Tyson or. Or Jordan or, uh, Jeremiah Love or Jeremiah Love. Oh, that will, that'll make a difference. Oh, man. That'll be, I don't want to see that because it's terrible for fantasy. It's terrible for both players. For my mental health. I will laugh profusely for so long. I mean, God forbid that. Chase Brown and Kenneth Walker are impacted Michael. Mike will lose it. We'll take a quick break. We'll come back with the rest. We are continuing our top 15 early running back rankings. Number nine, Ashton Janty. I've got him at seven, Jason at eight, Mike dumping on him at 12. Not surprising, but just based on some of the conversations we've had and the concerns that you've had for.

I think a committee backfield, and again, that are you on a good team factor? Both of those kind of came true last year. I mean, Ashton Jinty, he suffered under the thumb of the league's worst team. I mean, they got the number one pick. They have Fernandez-on-Mendoza on the way for a reason. He had to be a part of a putrid, abysmal offense all year long. So some might look at the RB12 finish as a rookie and say, that's darn impressive for that. To be on that team. Because what did we say? The average team wins nine games to be a top 15 running back. He was the RB 12. On the team that got the number one pick. So I lean a little bit to that glass half full side of things. I mean, the hard part for that is the way you overcome being on a bad team is workload. And Ashton Genti was 39% of the team's rushing attempts and targets. That is McCaffrey, Johnny Taylor, and Bejohn are the only running backs who had a higher percentage. So he was.

the entirety of the running back position. And because the team was so bad, you only had a couple spike weeks from Gentie. And he didn't finish as he was drafted as you had hoped. The offensive line was putrid. Now they've, they went on and they got Linda Baum from the Ravens. That certainly helps. But the, I mean, the metrics on their offensive line is pretty close to. dead last in, you know, yards before contact, stuff rate, rush success rate, as in these things were all bad for running backs behind this line. So that, and the, and the stat that you're alluding to, Andy, so running backs with a rookie quarterback. Over the last decade, teams with a rookie QB who have started 10 or more games, aka their rookie quarterback is their full-time starter. The running back won for those teams average seven and a half total touchdowns.

That is a very scary number when you're looking at the other running backs who are in this range. I mean, the thing with him is it might not be Mendoza for a while. And we do like the new head coach, Kubiak coming in. Yes, I agree. It's just how long until Mendoza comes in. I mean, it could be the year. When Kirk Cousins is there. One of the things that was great about Genti and the usage that you were just alluding to is that Gino Smith checked the ball down a lot. Gino Smith would throw. I don't know that Mendoza will do that as a rookie to the same degree, but Kirk Cousins will check it down a ton. I think the touchdown totals could be higher, and hopefully you get half a season before that transition is made. I believe. End of year, Bijon was excellent. Yes. And that was Kurt Cousins as the quarterback, not a bad team. I.

I definitely believe that Cubes wants a committee here. I do not believe he can do it. There's not a free agent to sign right now that could hurt him. And really, this is not a running back class where nine days from now, I'm afraid of what happens to Genti. So I think he will have a solid workload. And obviously, he has the talent to be. talked about as just a pure running back like Bijon, like Gibbs. That's a big part of it is believing in the talent that he possesses. Number 10 is Chase Brown. I've got him at 10, Jason at 10, Mike at 9. Underdog has him at RV 13, so we're above at least best ball ADP with Chase Brown. I'll bet people are afraid of the draft. I'm afraid of the draft with Chase Brown. I think Chase Brown. It was last year. It's very fair. I was afraid last year and we got, we came out unscathed and he ended up.

being the worst player in fantasy for a few weeks until Mike could acquire him and he could dominate for the rest of the year. I put a call in. Yeah. I was like, dude. Jake Brown, you get him in there. Take your value real quick. And that'd be awesome. I mean, he was a true workhorse. The RB7 averaging 17.3 fantasy points per game on 100 total yards per game from week six on. First five weeks. very powerful in the psyche of fantasy football players. They make a big impact. We just talked about Tucker Kraft. It felt like Tucker Kraft was a part of a majority of last year. He wasn't. He was a part of like six weeks. But those first six weeks with all the anticipation, it makes a big deal, a big impact on fantasy players. So Chase Brown started slow, ended hot, was truly dominant. And if he's alone, he should be fine. If he's alone, he's fine. I mean, this is the player.

Definitely most liable. I am terrified for his value. If Love were to fall to 10, which I know is not likely, but if that happens, they will take him. This is a team that has brought in a lot of running backs for top 30 visits. So they are looking at this position as one of a position of need. And, you know, I know I just said that this isn't a great draft class for the running back position. But there are a couple of guys out here that, I mean, I just don't think Chase Brown can be great if he's not getting a ton of work. I don't think you're going to like him in fantasy as a 50-50 guy. They did bring back P. Ryan? Yeah. Who was in addition later in the season last year? Yeah, but yeah. So P. Ryan and they've drafted Taj Brooks. So last year. Yeah, as we are going through this argument, there were.

There were Brooks supporters who were like, that was it. That's the guy that's going to come in and fully disrupt his backfield and take over and make Chase Brown irrelevant. So if they, like let's say it's round three, Jay. It's a, it's a round three. It's a guy you already don't like. Are you going to let that influence how you feel about Chase Brown here? I think I would. If it's round three, uh, meaning day two. If it's a day, yes, if it's a day two pick. Yeah, that will lower him in my rankings. Even if it's, you know, Mike Washington in round three, I'll be like, yeah, they're not drafting him to not give him the work. Taj was what, like fifth round, six round? He was a, he was day three. Yeah, I mean, they didn't invest in him, a sixth round pick. So that would be very different to me if they use a top three pick on a running back.

I think I'm, while I'm a little bit afraid, I think, I think Chase Brown's probably going to be okay. And I think that this team would be wise to go into the season leaning on him for another year versus drafting a non-defensive player. It's like, if love is there, I get it. Yes. I totally get it. Yes, that will end it for him. Other than that, so right now the Bengals, I pick 10? 41 and 72. 41 won't be price. He'll be gone already. And just for this team, what they need on the defensive side of the football would be. Which is 11 new guys. I think we had a pretty similar discussion about Chase Brown last year. That's the funny thing. We were like, oh, we were looking for the big name to ruin it, but they didn't waste the pick there. And they were fine. So, you know, I think we tried for a lot of years to make Kyron not a thing.

like Kyron's going to the time and it just kept happening I don't know if that'll be the case here number 11's Josh Jacobs who I feel like you know he's got his own little CMC light story going to a degree where like you you know you had the down year in Las Vegas you want to be out on him he's not the new hotness he's the old busted but he just plain gets it done this is clearly the key cog in the entire offense for Green Bay They just traded away too wide receivers. Are you going to bank on Jaden Reed who's always hurt, Matthew Golden has never done it, and Christian Watson who's always hurt, or are you going to bank on Josh Jacobs being the kind of centerpiece of this backfield once again? Yeah, I mean, 15 touchdowns two years ago, 13 touchdowns last year. He is their goal line machine.

that's going to be pretty important for scoring fantasy points. I feel like I'm too low on Josh Jacobs. I do too. Mike's got him at 8. We both got them at 12. I don't like it. I was pretty surprised. But this cluster of players, when you don't have your actual stats for them, it is difficult. Yeah, it is. It is. Because we've been around the block with Josh Jacobs. You'd love to find the narrative. This is where like it scares me the most. Hampton, Jacobs. right that yeah that situation could be one of the most like clearly you i don't want to play with you anymore you should just take jacobs that's the answer to that but no one's going to do that first right i'll take hampton hampton's going to go ahead of jacobs in every draft what if what if this year he could score 13 or 15 touchdowns you know right right exactly i mean because we have them ranked this way and then i was like if i was like hey you know you got to draft one of these guys

and you've got to guarantee their fantasy productions higher than the other one. If I've got a guarantee. And your life's on the line. You're taking Jacobs. Yeah. These are the, these are like the silly ones sometimes. So be careful. Jacobs is just a machine. The offense is good. I mean, I just mentioned, like, Matthew Golden and two hurt wide receivers. Well, guess what his debt chart is? It's Marjohn Lloyd, guys. Marshaun Lloyd looked at another guy pulling his hamstring, and that pulled his handstring. Yo! It was a mirror. He's an empath, man. Yeah, it's like the people that throw up when someone else is throwing up. He pulls his hamstring if somebody else is pulling his hamstring. Yep. You have Emmanuel Wilson is a Seattle Seahawk. I mean, they, they got to add somebody here. You, it would be surprising if Green Bay is like, okay, we'll go one more time into the year believing that Marshaun Lloyd's going to be the backup. And you got more. I'm sure they hope. They hope he was. It was, what, a third round pick?

two years ago and we've really not seen him. Any minute now. Now the next two names will lump them together, 12 and 13, Sequin and Henry. Oh, man. Sequin at 12. Saw 300 plus opportunities. He's done that for four straight years. Saw 50 targets. Cool. The Eagles offensive line is elite, but they were missing a key piece of their line for the majority of the season. It was a down year big time for Seekwon. He's now the RB8 in best ball, so we are low on him as well. And that's another one. Hampton or Sequin? You look at that situation and you're... You can at least say, look at last year. Yeah, you can. It was trouble. And A.J. Brown, if he's out the door, do we figure out the offense? I don't know. It's still Sequin Barclay is my point. It's a hard name to pass on. It is. I think having a down year, you know, he'll turn 30 this year. That's a little scary. You know, we talked...

at nauseam coming off of his RB1 finished two years ago about the efficiency and what happens after that much work. He had a massive workload going deep into the playoffs. And it was unsurprising. Now, was that all Lane Johnson? Was that, you know, missing Lane Johnson? And once he's back, it's all fixed and it's a great offense. They changed the offensive coordinator, which helped a couple years ago. So there's ways that it could get corrected. But I guess I don't. expect the efficiency to get better as he gets older. It should get worse as he gets older. And so I, you know, I would like to have Sequin, but I don't think he's going to be, you know, a top three back. Yeah, the biggest counterpoint is the guy that we're talking about next who's 32 years old who we... He's never slowed down. We, okay, that might be fair. Derek Henry is still playing running back in the NFL. He's 32...

0.2 years old. All you did was go out there. He was the Arby. Because he's been old for five years. He was the RB7. And listen to the fantasy, I mean, look at the fantasy finishes from week six on, right? That's when the old guys get better, right? The later part of the year. Well, that's when the weather gets colder. 10, 8, 9, 23, 6, 5, 10, 23, 19, 1, 11. So from week 6 on, just, I mean, guys, he was on pace for 1,800 yards. He's not going to catch the football. 2319? That was an issue. I mean, wait, what? I don't know. I didn't hear it. Yeah, you were going down through your list of all his rankings, 5, 10, 2319. 2319 is a big issue. It's a code. Code red. That's a human sock. Oh, this is a monster zinc. Wow. You got me. Yeah. You just outp cultured me, bro. Deep.

Is that being out culture? Yeah. Yeah. Pop culture. I want to leave the show. 1414. 14. 13. 13. Derek Henry. Yeah. Who's going to do it? Who's got the stones? Who's got the stones to say this is that we're done? I don't think it's over. I mean, you could say. The aforementioned Lina Baum. Harbaugh is gone. Maybe they mix it up a little bit committee-wise. They lost their center. Changing full. Oh, yeah, that's a big deal. They lost their fullback, Patrick Ricard. Let me ask you this. Are the Ravens going to be bad? Because that's possible. It's possible the Ravens aren't good. If the Ravens are good, Henry is good. We've seen this this whole career. Yeah. I think the Ravens are good because they have Lamar Jackson. I mean, if you've got a great quarterback, it's very difficult.

to have a great quarterback and be a bad football team. It can be done, but it's rare. So the bad year in Tennessee, the single bad year in Tennessee, he, oh, no, he played eight games. He probably would have been fine. He probably would have been fine. Yes. He's played 17 games, three consecutive years. His body is a Wonderland. A temple. It's spectacular. But they do have significant offensive line. The Ravens win. Fullback situations. Raven's projected win total is 11.5. Don't they still need to pay Lamar? That's coming up. I believe they still need to pay Lamar. I don't know. This feels like maybe they get that passing game going. The nice thing is he's not a new hot, sexy name. So he'll be lower in the draft. You're talking about maybe having a value. I would guess he's near the back of the second. Right now he is the back of the second RB12. Yeah. So if I can get him near the two, three turn.