Stat Surprises + Murky Situations, WR Name Game - Fantasy Football Podcast for 5/23

Today's episode is the mailbag. That means it is all about you and all about your questions. Don't miss a moment. Don't miss a mid-show injury from one of the hosts. Subscribe to this channel so you don't miss any of this show and enjoy. To the Fantasy Footballers podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Oh, welcome in. Thursday episode of the Fantasy Footballers.

Mike the Fantasy Hitman. That's me. In the building. That's, yeah, that's me. This goofy movie t-shirt on. Oh, yeah. Got to represent the best Disney cartoon of all time. You have more than one goofy movie clothing item? I certainly do. Yeah. I have many. How old is the goofy movie? Uh, we're talking like 25 years. Oh, 20 plus, yeah. 1995. So we're coming up on 30. Coming up on 30. Nice. So and were you there on the day it was released? I did see it in the theater. Yes. And you're still representing. Yeah. Getting those VHS sales up. Because it just holds up.

It's incredible movie for all ages. Hashtag not a sponsor, but ladies a gentleman. Not a sponsor. Yeah, the Goofy Movie is sponsoring people these days. Well, I'm just saying, like, Disney is not sponsoring me saying how good the goofy movie is. We just got a sponsor offer from Mighty Ducks One. Here it comes. Well, settle down. Kyle's on the line. He can hear you. But Goofy Movie, like, you watch it and you're like, Max is. so cool he does his dance as the power line and you're like what goofy is just he needs to back off right and then you become an adult and you watch the movie and you're like goofy is just trying to be a good father and max is a brat so you've gone through both oh yeah yeah it's it's a great movie i have never watched it all the way through oh man so maybe this year you have not seen the big finale the big eye to eye

Dancing on the stage? No, I mean, I feel a little bit like I've lived through it here on the show. You are missing out. Maybe this year. Maybe I'll sit down with my boys. And we'll watch it. So there you go. Or rent out of theater. Yeah. Oh, I'm in. Expensive to the company. Welcome in one and all. Mike Ride, Andy Holloway here. Jason will be back next week. Some things at the top I wanted to talk about. We've got. We're going to discuss some of the stat surprises that came our way when we were going through all of the teams for the ultimate draft kit. Talk about some NFL news, some mailbag, and some other stuff on today's episode. But here at the top, I do want to announce that we have a winner of our Dynasty Week giveaway. Yes, thank you. Jeff Midgley. Jeff Midgley has won a signed Devon A. Chan, Jersey.

And from what I understand, they don't just sell those in extra small, like his actual jersey. Oh, true to do size. Yeah. So Jeff Midgley, congratulations. Just nine days until the ultimate draft kit is released. Nine days, Mike. The anticipation is palpable in the studio. You can feel the stress of our employees. Yep. It is rising. But we're good. We're on track. For those of you that are new to the Ultimate Draft Kit, it is our tool that the entire team builds and keeps updated throughout the entire offseason to prepare you for your fantasy football drafts. The UDK has tier-based rankings, which is always a very popular feature. All of our stat projections for every player. 100-plus video player profiles, which we are in the throngs of recording. Trong, the throng, throng. I don't know why I said in the throngs.

There are certain things you just need to be careful. Yeah, that's what I'm talking about. Custom cheat sheets in the UDK, Mike. Sleepers, breakouts, busts, and values. We have a custom player marking so you can set aside players that you're targeting in your draft. It's a great tool for using actively during the draft. It's what all of us use as well. Custom scoring support is in the UDK as well for your league scoring. So your rankings are specific to your league. We have consistency charts. We have the risk and the upside meters. It's all available on the web and on the mobile app. And then we have a ton of like ancillary charts and resources in there. Yeah, a bunch of research items to help you. Because like we're trying to help be a guide for you to simplify it as much as possible. But we're also trying to give you.

a lot of research tools so you can make your own, you know, form your own opinions based off of dad and how you're looking at it. And I would stay also, stay tuned because I have been in the laboratory. Yeah. And I cannot wait until we get this thing out so we can work on some new tools. And if you have the UDK Plus, you get all the things I just mentioned, but you also get the draft analyzer tool, which lets you import your team after you draft. and we'll grade it for you. We'll tell you your strengths and your weaknesses and ways to improve. Set the foundation as you head into the season. You get the Dynasty Pass, which is available right now, and you get the DFS pass if you play Draft Kings, you know, best ball, fan duel, whatever the case may be heading into the season. And there you go. Ultimate draftkid.com. Nine days left to get the pre-order price. You can jump in.

And here's our quick question of the day, Mike. We were talking about our player projections for the season, which, you know, we stay water. We modify them. We update them. We change them. When a new signing or injury or perspective happens, we update them. But as you go through and you went through your stats of every player, what's something that surprised you when you were in that process in terms of maybe it's a team, maybe it's a player? Maybe it's, why is that guy ranked there? So the, a very strong takeaway I have is for the Green Bay Packers. And my note is good luck. Okay. Because it, like the 8P wise, you know, currently with the way that fantasy players are treating it, it is locked in that Jaden Reed is the player to have. He's the Green Bay Packer wide receiver last year. You feel like that's a, that's a consensus opinion?

I'm just saying ADP-wise. I'm not talking about our opinion is just ADP. And I understand it totally. Last year, a rookie who he didn't have like a monster breakout, but for his draft capital, what you were expecting from Jane Reed, it was a great season. However, the injuries and things, like weeks five through 13, that's when we had. essentially all of them. And I'm going to include, I'll say the four pack that includes, that includes Romeo Dobbs and Dontavian Wix, which Dontavian Wix is kind of like slowly gaining market buzz as one of people's favorite sleeper wide receivers. He's very, very cheap in drafts right now. But during those games, Weeks 5 through 13, Watson, Christian Watson, remember that guy?

He was 18% of the targets. Jane Reed was 15, Dobbs was 15, and Wix was down at 10%. So it's why I'm saying good luck is we're, you know, players drafting right now are saying it is guaranteed Jane Reed because Christian Watson is going multiple rounds after him. And yet in the games where they were actually healthy, Christian Watson was the one who was seeing the larger target share. He's the bigger play guy. So it's a murky situation. Here's why I think it's so difficult is because each individual player has a wide range of outcomes. None of them are settled in, right? There's not because they're younger. Like you don't have a player that's been around for a long time. Remember when Randall Cobb was finishing his tenure in Green Bay? You knew what Randall Cobb was. Right. But I think you could literally say, I don't know exactly what Jaden Reed is.

I don't know exactly what Christian Watson is. He's had big games. He's had disappearing acts. He's had injuries. Romeo Dobbs. Is he just the guy that's capable to fill in when other players are hurt? And then Octavian Wix has a ceiling that I think people are getting their heads around now. Yeah, they are. Well, you know, is there a world where Dontavian Wix is the second most valuable wide receiver? There is a, every single universe exists for the, for the Green Bay Packers of, Some have higher probability, but I'm saying the order of one through four, every single possibility between those four guys exists to me. The reason I have Jaden Reed ranked the highest is because watching football games, I think he's the most versatile and talented player in that group. And I think his floor is the highest in terms of weekly utility. Do you remember?

that they had a... Do you remember? This is what we're doing all songs today. That the Packers had two playoff games. I do remember that they played in the playoffs. And the first playoff game, Green Bay versus Dallas, Jane Reed, the floor was in fact zero as he had three targets, zero for zero for zero. He wasn't on the field. Well, it... Jay Reid's end of the year was injury plague. Remember he played through, I think it was a foot injury for multiple weeks in a row. So that, again, like I said, there's questions for all these, you miss week 16. There are question marks around all these players. So yeah, I think the synopsis of good luck, I think it's fair. I'm not saying don't take shots. I think that you should 100% be getting some exposure to probably all of these guys, depending on how many drafts you do.

But it's the certainty of which the market is convinced it's Jaden Reed right now. That's where I'm like, hey, let's pump the brakes maybe a little bit. Yeah, I get it. I think they are, they're the highest upside question mark team. There's a bunch of wide receiver rooms that you're like, good luck. But you also don't need them. Like you're not like, you're not like New England. Good luck. Yeah, you're right. Yeah, we both kind of are interested in Polk, but... Right, but it's not to the degree of... His ADP is going to be like your last pick in the draft. So, yeah, Jaden Reed dealt with toe sprained, sprained ankle, and then missed a week. Kept trying to play through. I think it was a back situation. He was beat up. Christian Watson's been beat up. And, no, it'll be interesting. For me, the quote, I think LeFleur was just talking about Christian Watson's hamstrings and whether or not they're...

past the, like, are we truly past all the hamstring injuries? No. And he's like, I don't know, we'll find out. That's a tough one because those type of injuries keep cropping up. We've joked about, I mean, Julio Jones played a lot of games, but he limped off the field a lot of times. For me, it was the most ironic and wild of statistical outputs. My number three tied in. Easy E! Just. Just unbelievable, but Evan Ingram ended up my number three tied in my rankings. I am apparently very in love with a player that had 143 targets, 114 completions, just 963 yards on those completions, just four touchdowns. But, I mean, it was a great year last year for Evan Ingram. And you're coming into a season with over 200 vacated targets, I believe.

You don't have Calvin Ridley. You got a rookie in Brian Thomas, who you and I debated on the mock draft show, the Christian Kirk, Brian Thomas thing. And then like moments later, they talked about Christian Kirk being the clear alpha in OTAs, and Brian Thomas has a ways to go. But, you know, Gabe Davis, not a target hog, Brian Thomas, brand new, nose Jones. And I could see Evan Ingram having the target lead again at the position this season. He is just, he's an underneath tight end that is like having a pass catching running back. He's an escape valve, has the best rapport outside of Kirk with Trevor Lawrence, and vacated targets. They could definitely go his direction because he is just, he's an easy option for Trevor Lawrence in the offense. So I, just on sheer volume, I think that he's going to be back up near the top. He doesn't win you a lot of weeks.

But that's not the number one goal of tight end a lot of the time. The number one goal of tight in is don't fall behind at the position. Don't lose the position week to week, and he doesn't let you lose it. Yeah, and there's there is the room for him to have an outlier touchdown season. With that amount of receptions and that amount of involvement, the most likely thing is it'll still be a low touchdown output for Anger, but. The world exists where he hits eight or nine. And then, then he's like a one of the best picks at the, at the tight end position. And it's just, it's now, I mean, that's, that's another year of Doug Peterson. And his tight ends are just peppered with targets. And then Jason's not here, but someone from our team decided to throw, throw his ranking of D.K. Metcalf into.

The quick question. This spoicy. Which is number 10. He loves DK right now. He really does. And I don't know if I'm there. I'm not. I did draft him in the mock draft. He was the bottom of the final tier of where I could be okay with him as my wide receiver won. Because if you ended, like I went running back, running back quarterback. And he ended up my wide receiver won because he's a fourth round. So maybe we make him explain himself next week. Maybe we do a little Explain Yourself segment. Maybe we do that. I'm trying to agree with you, man. Maybe. Maybe. All right. Are we good to move on to news? I think we're good. News and notes from around the league. Well, it's almost like we were insulated from the reality of injuries because we were. And now that they're all, all the players are running around on the field.

There's a bunch of injuries popping up, and it's early, Mike. So do you concern yourself very much with news of hamstring injuries like Josh Jacobs, you know, talk of Kyron Williams with a foot injury and won't be part of the offseason program? But we'll be back in time for training camp. Does it give you the first shiver of what reality is like in fantasy for the season? It's not giving me the shiver, and it's not altering how I think about any of these players, but it will be, I mean, it's a note so that if Josh Jacobs at any time during training camp has the same leg with a hamstring injury, then I will become very concerned. So we had Kyron Williams dealing with a foot injury. He's had an injury history, has been brought up on this show. They drafted Blake Corum.

You're not concerned right now. No, not yet. Sean McVeigh's been very accurate when he talks about players in their injuries, and he says he's going to be back for camp, but it's in the back of your mind. Yeah. Keith Mitchell on schedule. This would be Ravens. Whoa, whoa, whoa. Hold on. Okay. Hold on. All right. He's on schedule. Oh, no, he's not ahead of schedule. So he is behind schedule. Is that what that means? There's only one way to take it. If everyone is ahead of schedule and you're the only one on schedule. Imagine being on schedule. You're late. Shoot. That's not great. Well, that is kind of what the news report is. Recovering from a torn ACL will not be back for training camp, not expected back until sometime during the season. And the quote said, it's not like right around the corner. Okay.

So is it around the block? I don't know. He led all NFL running backs and yards after contact. He was absolutely him. If he was able to finish the season, like him and A-chan, it would have just been both of those guys were electric on the field. We don't know anything further yet, but our injury guy, Matthew Betts, he did mention in our slack of he's kind of had his concerns about this injury that it might be a multi. Like this isn't just a clean, regular ACL. So that's just, that's even more on the radar now if this is where he is in his recovery. Yeah. So Keaton Mitchell's not going to be a factor for your drafting of Derek Henry or consideration on the backfield. No. And Kyle would bring up Rashine Ali, the rookie that they drafted, because Kyle is, Kyle is drunk in love right now. Is he? With Mr. Ali. Yes.

He is. I, who has him in Dynasty? I believe Kyle's team. Does he? Yeah. Is it? Yeah, I probably is. Maybe, I don't know. We would have to check. But the point being, if you missed when we talked about Ali, his production profile is incredibly interesting. And, you know, they got, it seemed like the Ravens were forced into using Justice Hill last year when they didn't seemingly like. based off of his entire history, they didn't want to do that. So as of right now, I don't hate it. I think Ali is a very intriguing player who could be, like he could be the most, the highest beneficiary should Henry miss some time. He had the bicep injury, I think, in the senior bowl that knocked him down a little bit. Yes, he had, he essentially like had a year almost deleted from injury and then he got hurt right before the draft.

Ladd McConkey, there's a report out of from the athletic that the majority of all of his snaps with the first team have come from the slot. That's kind of, that's essentially what I was expecting. It's what makes sense on this roster right now. Josh Palmer, Quentin Johnston on the outside. McConkey played 29% of his college snaps in the slot. It is the reason I have Keon Coleman higher than McConkey in my rankings for this year. I liked McConkey a ton. Talked about him a lot. in the off season like the situation for keon a little bit more yeah i can agree with that scared of mcconkey being a six for 56 and no touchdown guy valuable for the team maybe not as valuable for fantasy just speculation right now yeah and just some numbers because when you hear someone is designated to be a slot wide receiver it does lower their probability to becoming a true fantasy like difference maker

It doesn't eliminate it because the NFL is starting to shift. So last year, Keenan Allen, nearly 48% of his targets were from a route out of the slot. So a good amount. And same thing, like C.D was at 57%. Amman Ra was at 55%. So it's not the end when you say that, well, he's going to be predominantly in the slot, but it does lower the odds. Yeah. Yeah, a lower percentage of touchdowns historically have come from the slot. Yeah, because you've got a lower depth of target. Yeah, so it's just something to pay attention to. And especially as a rookie, if that's where you're going to get the majority of your snaps, you know, manage expectations, low passing volume, offense. And, you know, you and I were talking about Josh Palmer maybe being just free in drafts and yet maybe the number one target. Yeah, there. Yeah.

Don't tell anybody. Don't tell anyone also because your sanity will be called into question. Yeah. If you start talking about proclaiming, I think Joshua Palmer's the guy. Yeah, I mean, it's interesting. Rashi Rice, the charges from the nightclub assault have been dropped. The alleged assault? Yes. Which, I mean, yeah. That's, that's. That's at least one positive step here for Rice. That doesn't mean... The league can still have their say. Yeah, the league can still have a say from this thing, and that doesn't even take into account the whole speeding on the freeway accident. We're going to take a quick break and come back with some of your questions. All right, we're going to take a few minutes and jump into your mailbag questions. A lot of things going on. We're going to do our best to help you out. Let's do it. Mailbag.

Do you feel a pressure when Jason's not here, like when it's just the two of us, do you feel like a pressure to do more with the mailbag? Like you're more on an island over there? I don't think about it, no. No, it's just, you're just in it. Yeah, it doesn't matter. Yeah, I mean. You might as well be alone in a room. I pretty much leave my body. Do you? For a mailbag, yeah. Frightening. Do you just hear those notes? Those things are upstairs. They're special. Question from Troy Cummings writes in off of X. He says, hello, chosen ones. Why are we still so high? That's the first time we've been called the Chosen Ones. Why are we still so high on Justin Jefferson? He has a rookie quarterback. Only five wide receivers have finished top 12 with a rookie quarterback, let alone top five. Help me understand. And he brings up, well,

We can look through history and see the five. I remember the Cam Newton year in 2011 where Steve Smith was a wide receiver seven. I think he had 1,300-something yards. Christian Ponder managed to get Percy Harvin to wide receiver 8. That's shocking. Andy Dalton got A.J. Green to the wide receiver 11. And then Andrew Luck with Reggie Wayne. Reggie Wayne, very established. That is the, like the 2012 Reggie Wayne situation is 100% the way I view this. extremely established star, which is what you see. Like if you go back and you look at all the rookie quarterbacks and their highest receiver in terms of fantasy production, the ones that have succeeded, the ones that have made it through, the outliers, have been the best players of the group. They don't elevate a middle tier player. They make the best players. The best players make them great. So Steve Smith.

Reggie Wayne, AJ Green, Roddy White. Those are four stars. So what about the wide receiver who threw four seasons is averaging over 98 receiving yards a game, which would be number one all time? Yeah, I'm not worried about it. Yeah, that's why. Look, I mean, we're at least, we are acknowledging the situation. I don't have Justin Jefferson number one. If you had Kirk Cousins on this team or even just someone, a quarterback-wide faith in, I mean, I don't know if you, we're, okay. Side conversation here. Okay. Where are you with J.J. McCarthy starting versus Sam Darnel? Like, do you think this is week one? The rookie takes over? I hope so. Or that Sam Darnold plays like maybe through the by week, which is not an uncommon thing. I really hope it's one. When is the Vikings buy week? Let's pull it. I don't have that on the top of my head. I was throwing it out to see if anyone had. I'll look it up if it's not there. No, I hope it's McCarthy.

even if it's painful for a couple weeks. But not hope. Give me your, what you really. So week six is the Vikings by week. So potentially five games of Sam Darnold make the transition. Week seven on you of J.J. McCarthy. You think it happens sooner than that? As of right now, I think he'll be the start of week one. Okay. That's what I expect. And maybe that's just from watching Sam Darnold. I don't know. But. Yeah, why are we still high on him? Because he's put up the best numbers in the history of the NFL at the wide receiver position. They improved their offensive line. I think McCarthy's a smart quarterback. The best receiver on this team that's always open is Jefferson. And he put up insane target numbers when they had. I mean, is JJ McCarthy a worse starter than the guys they had running it back last year? No, definitely not. You know, he put up 12 for 192 in Week 17 against Detroit. So, yeah, I don't want to be caught.

stupid with Justin Jefferson. Now, he's not, I mean, he's not ranked number one for any of us. Yeah, we didn't. He's five or six. That feels like an insult. It's like Tyree Kill and C.D. Lamb, it's very easy. I'm going to take those guys over Justin Jefferson. Jamar Chase, I think that's a closer conversation. For sure. But I also think that's one where you need to be watching what happens, like Mike said about Sam Darnold. You know, what does preseason look like? What does camp look like? Try to. you know, read through the coach speak there. Instagram question from Caleb King. Does Dalton Kincaid lead the bills in receptions and yards this year? Last year he had the fourth most receptions ever for a rookie tight end. Already a bunch of hype train stuff happening. Talking about him catching everything and looking amazing and off-season camp activities. It's he should, but I think that there, I don't think it is a,

It's not a slam dunk where you had, you know, to start the season, both him and Dawson Knox are sharing time on the field. And I'm just, these are just snaps, of course. Knox is a different archetype of a player. He's blocking more. But, you know, Dawson Knox goes down to injury. He comes back. Then weeks 14 through 18, Dawson Knox is averaging about nearly 50% of the snaps. And Dalton Kincaid. at averaging 57% of the snaps. So he was a rookie, should take another step, was a first round picked by the Buffalo Bills. At the time, kind of felt like he's being drafted to be the future of their pass catching. How do you have it static? But I think that there's, okay, so let me get to the, so I have Dalton Kincaid right now at tight end six. Is he the leader, though, in receptions for the bills? I do have him leading them in total receptions.