Fantasy Time Machine + Target Breakdowns, Blind Spots - Fantasy Football Podcast for 9/2

All right, Mike, who's this year's David Montgomery to you? So I went back and forth on this one between my pick and Mike Davis from the Davis on the Atlanta Falcons, which I don't know if you guys saw this because I had missed it. You know who's listed number two on the depth chart at the running back position? Herschel Walker. Cordero Patterson. Okay, that makes sense. They have no one. Yeah, I just like, I mean, you figured it was Olison. But that does help the case for Mike Davis. Yeah, and so it's like.

It, Davis seems like he should be the guy and then look at the players behind him and he really should be. Do you know who was David Montgomery's backup running back last year? Cordero Patterson. Well, there you go. Maybe I'm going to switch my pick because the Falcons end of season schedule, at least right now, looks juicy. But I'm going with Chase Edmonds of the Arizona Cardinals. He's, he's a player that we don't yet know what type of workload he's going to be. He should be the primary ball carry for it.

the Arizona Cardinals, and he has, he's been their past catching specialists. So, I mean, when you fuse those two things together, you're looking at a player whose, his ceiling is tremendous. Should he receive that workload, he will break out on, on Arizona that projects to be a good offense. And then I was looking at the end of the season of, it's not, looking at the end of season schedule right now is a dicey proposition because things change so much, but.

In his playoff run, he gets the Lions, the Colts, which isn't my favorite. And then the Cowboys. I mean, the Lions and the Cowboys in that three-game stretch, I would be pretty surprised if both of those teams can shore up their defense in time over the season to stop Chase Simmons from having a good run at the end of the season. All three of our picks are from the fifth round right now in fantasy drafts. Mine's Miles Gaskin. When I think about what David Montgomery did at the end of last year,

It was not just a run of good games. It was a run of top 10 games. It was a run of like weak winning games. And Miles Gaskin can do that because he brings so much in the passing game. The last, I think six games that he played, he was the top 20 running back. But three of those, he was the top 10 running back last year. And so I like his potential to go.

you know, 1,800 in this offense. Oh, my. And you talk about ambiguous backfield. Malcolm Brown is the Tariq Cohen to the situation. Did you say starter? Did you say starter? I need it. I need it. You dirty, man. I'm speaking into existence. Oh, because you drafted Malcolm Brown. Malcolm Brown, I need you.

I mean, speaking of the draft, you grab, this is a real call that you believe in. You drafted Miles Gaskin in the second round last night in the listener league draft. It's a 14 teamer. 14 teamer, yes. But then. I mean, so this is, this is, you have put your money where your, where your mouth is here. You, you really truly believe Miles Gaskin has the chance to be David Montgomery. This isn't just picking a.

name out of a hat that you don't believe in. Yeah, I've definitely, there's no player I've risen moron, I think, into the season than Miles Gaskin. And he is the opposite case, in my opinion of what the Jacksonville did to James Robinson. Like, we all walked away from the draft going, oh my gosh, the dolphins with all that capital did not invest on a young running back. Right. I think that shows the confidence they have in Gaskin to do a lot in the offense. Not everything. He's not.

built to do everything. But a lot for a player that catches passes is pretty darn good. So let's look at finding 2021's Stefan Diggs. It is still mind-blowing that this is a player that went outside the top six rounds in fantasy, or five rounds in fantasy football. Last year, his average draft position was 603, the wide receiver 27, off the board. Fast forward or hop in the Dolorian and travel to now.

And we know Josh Allen went nuclear. Bills went from 200 passing yards of game to almost 300. Yeah, if you would have told me that was going to happen, I would have changed my outlook for Stefan Diggs. So this is a player that's outside the top four rounds, has room for the quarterback to improve or the offense to take a leap, has a chance to be a target hog. So who is your 2021 Stefan Dix candidate?

Um, who I, similar to Mike, how he, you sound skeptical. Well, the reason I'm skeptical is because I want to, I want to do what you did at the running back position. The, the player that I think, the player that I think matches it the best. I just refuse to put my name on. So, okay. But it's, it's, it's O'Dell Beckham Jr. He's going in the same spot that, uh, that Diggs went last year. He's a known great wide receiver from the past who's.

Not been there for fantasy. So, you know, but I refuse that. I would never, I would never pick Odell Beckham. I'm going to go with Corey Davis. When I look at a highly drafted, good route running, somewhat disappointing wide receiver left for dead, changing teams like Stefan Diggs did, to an offense that we presume is bad. But maybe it's good. We haven't seen Zach Wilson. And if Zach Wilson really comes on and.

Lights the world on fire. I mean, you got Tony Romo out here saying he thinks he's a... He does. One of the top guys he's going to compete with Patrick Mahomes. He's got that level of talent. If something like that were to happen and a breakout happened, I think Corey Davis could be the target hog. I mean, I know in preseason, you had some games without Elijah Moore, but they paid a ton of money to bring Corey Davis in here as...

their one. And I think he will be their number one wide receiver this year. So I find it hard to make the leap all the way up. You know, the one part of the Stefan Diggs comp that clearly doesn't ring true is I don't think he can be a top five wide receiver. But I do think the, you know, but he's also not going in the sixth round like Diggs was last year. I think that same jump from basically the sixth to a first rounder.

can happen with Corey Davis being a ninth rounder to like a third rounder next year. I don't think Elijah Moore played any preseason games. Yeah, I don't think so. I don't think that any snaps. No, Corey Davis is going the latest of our three picks. I mean, he's almost a 10th round pick. He is. And that the data point that we brought up in never not working, the percentage of routes targeted. Right. Corey Davis scored very well on that metric. He saw a target on.

23.6% of his routes. I also like that it fits the switching teams storyline. Yeah. Mike, who is your Stefan Diggs candidate? So my wide receiver is also switching teams. Okay. All right. Fair. Switching from Alabama to the Philadelphia Eagles. I'm going the rookie Devante Smith. He's always open. And as much as I want.

to bang the drum for Jalen Rager and say this second year wide receiver is going to have a breakout. I mean, it's up and down with Rager. He showed up to camp out of shape. It's like the news on Rager is you just can't buy into it. And then you only see Devante Smith in a very limited amount of preseason action. And it was, oh, well, the BMI doesn't matter because you can't stop this dude off with the line. He gets...

Open. Talk about Heisman winner? Yes. A player who put up one of the most prolific wide receiver sees his default time. He was just absolutely elite. You have the situation with the quarterback. Like Josh Allen, in hindsight, questioning Josh Allen a year ago was the right thing to do. He went from one of the worst passers in football to one of the best. Jalen Hertz currently being very questioned. Can he be a...

Can he be a starting quarterback? Can he be a franchise quarterback? And so I think that a lot of the narratives align here. And you're getting Devante Smith, the back of the seventh, the early eighth round. And I think that he can immediately jump into the top target share for the Philadelphia Eagles. I wonder if the real answer to this question is Kenny Galladay because it could be. Because he has the, like, Diggs has never been, we never questioned Diggs the.

the talent right even in minnesota it was always like you just kind of kind of got fatigued right with him not seeing enough targets and then he switches teams and it was josh allen was the problem right right and then and then you know yesterday it was like who gets stuck with keny gala day in our listener league draft and it was me and it was mike and it was not like mike was not happy when he did it he's just like okay and so i do wonder if that's the real answer i'm going to go with dj more though um

Outside the fifth round, actually the first pick of the fifth round right now by ADP, you look at those marks of Stefan Diggs last year, room for quarterback improvement and the offense to take a leap. Well, Jason made the case for Sam Darnold to improve that offense. Chance to be a target hog. Yes, he does have that opportunity. And he has a similar deep target profile of Stefan Diggs.

You know, he's been peppered with targets this preseason, so he's kind of standing out to me as the player that Darnold is going to look to the most and can make the most big plays. I think he's one of the best real wide receivers in football. So to me, D.J. Moore could be one of those names that right now, fifth, six round, end of year, we're like, oh, D.J. Moore is what we thought he was. He scored eight times. I mean, Diggs did it last year on, what, seven touchdowns? Eight touchdowns? It was not the prolific number.

DJ Moore reminds me of someone that can, you know, if you hit him 15 yards down the field near the sideline, just like Diggs, like he'll just run back to the middle of the field, kind of break a tackle, and can house it. All right. Let's find 2021's Logan Thomas. This one is, of course, finding the new Stefan Diggs is valuable. But finding that late round tight end, Jim, is difficult, but it is very, very valuable. And it is super.

like satisfying as a fantasy player to identify the tight end and then be able to lock them in and say I found something no one else found very hard to do. Logan Thomas, that prototype that we're talking about late or undrafted tight end that still has a chance to be the second or third in targets. Logan Thomas just ended up being a go-to receiver for them. And then we can throw in the interesting athletic measurable so though it does not fit my pick for this.

Mr. Clean? So we'll see. Who's this year's Logan Thomas for you?

For me, it is Gerald Everett. He has the athletic profile. Yes, he does. He has a 91st percentile athletic measurables. He really can get it done on the field. And I think he comes into a role right now where he is the number three in targets. You've obviously got D.K. Metcalfe Tiler Lock and locking it down. So he is not able to break into the top two.

as the roster currently stands. But as the third option in this offense, we've seen in years past, I mean, Big Montana had crazy success. Yes, he did. And then he got injured. And then it was like, okay, we'll bring in Greg Olson. But Greg Olson was a shell of his former self. He's an old man on the field. Now it's Gerald Everett. They paid him money to come over to be a part of this team. And I think the opportunity is there. But the other thing I want to point out, like,

It's only those two wide receivers. They're very shallow here. We talked a lot in the early off season about Tennessee and what if they lost a guy. But if either Tyler Lockett or D.K. Metcalf happens to go down for a period of time, I think he will become kind of like Logan Thomas very necessary. He's, you know, with a better quarterback situation. So while right now, if I'm drafting Gerald Everett, it is 100%.

based on a streaming option. It's matchup play. This pick should sound stupid, just putting it out there. It should sound illogical that these players could do it. Logan Thomas sounded that way last year. I'm not saying that about your pick. I'm just saying all these names should, the reason they're undrafted is because nobody's really projecting or predicting it. But Everett 100% fits that. And switching teams like,

You know, Logan Thomas, it took him a little while. He switched teams before he had the breakout campaign. And Everett has always fit that athletically. In fact, he's had those plays where you look and you're like, that's one of the top five tight ends in football. He's had those games. Even with Jared Goff, not a lot of tight ends can run a, you know, a route like a wide receiver down the sideline and catch a fly past the way that Gerald Everett can't. Mount Everett. Yes, Matt.