Starts of the Week + Week 2 Breakdown, The Dump Truck - Fantasy Football Podcast for 9/15

How do you do, fellow kids? Welcome to the show. We've got a great one for you today. Not only are we never not working, but we're talking starts of the week and we're going through half of the matchups for week two. Important stuff. Make sure you like the video, subscribe, leave your comments. We read them and enjoy the show. The Fantasy Footballer Studio is brought to you by Samsung Galaxy. Visit Samsung.com to learn more. To the Fantasy Footballers podcast. With your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Oh, welcome in. It's about time. I almost forgot because I was very busy thinking about the hats. There is a hat situation on this show today on the program. There's a hat solution on the show today, Mike. How bad is my hair right now?

You have no idea. Okay. So you've solved. I've solved my baldness. Baldness. Baldness cured. Check it out. Check it out. Check it out. Bald? Not bald. Bald? You two are wearing a very similar shirt today after the matching withstanding victories. We are. You look great today, Mike. You look fantastic, Jason. We both got a blue hue going on, which is surprising because Jason is. 98% of the time, a black shirt fellow. That's right. But I went a little crazy today. I'm wearing a pink and purple shorts and a backwards hat and a little athletic shirt. Welcome fellow young. I was going to say, is this the midlife crisis? He said, welcome yellow fellow young kids. Did you pull up in a vet today? Oh, yeah. Top down. Little Miata. It's a firebird. By the way, 101 podcasting 101 is to you want to.

bring the audience into the show by describing things we see visually. That's right. That's one of the big keys. I know Brooks, you taught us that, right? That's the key. Oh, definitely. Brooks also wearing a blue shirt, it looks like. Yes, sir. Okay. You look beautiful back there, Brooks. You look beautiful. No? Can we start this again? Start this again? Never not working. News and notes, fantasy forecasts. We'll get into the matchups for week two today. Starts of the week on the show. Jason obviously bringing his boom boom kicker sophistication to the podcast today. How does the backwards hat feel? Oh, the backwards hat feels excellent. Feels like I've got a little bit more energy today. Feels like I'm ready to dunk on fools through this show. You know, I'm just ready to go. Yeah. And you're wearing, I mean, it looks all right. Looks pretty good. I'm going to go to the pretty good side. That is the nicest thing you've ever said. What's the snap situation? Do you wear the hat where...

You're kind of, your head size is really in between the two snaps and you have to choose loose or tight or is it work out all right? I don't think so. I think this works. You're exactly a three button. A three button guy. Will there be a mark afterwards? Are you good? I don't know. We'll find out. All right. Well, we're done with that. Twitter at the FF ballers. If you want to follow the snapback Jason. At Jason FFL. You're not changing your handle to snapback Jason. No, it is at snapback Jason now. I did change it. Mike is at FF Hitman.

I'm at Andy Holloway, and you can become a part of the community at JoinTheFoot.com. Get a bonus weekly show, get access to a ton of premium in-season perks, and we're making a lot of improvements for the supporters of the show. That's right. Lots of tools, the snapshot tool, streamfinder. You can use the StartSit tool with up to four players. There's a bunch of benefits to supporting the podcast, and we appreciate all of the FootClant. It is Thursday, though, and we have yet another special segment. Never Not Working. Presented by Head and Shoulders, Scamp Shield Technology, available at Walmart. All right, we are always working around here. That's right. And what we wanted to dive into and really provide stats for the Foot Clan are, is to combat a narrative of...

Garbage Time. We love Garbage Time, right? Oh, the Garbage Man Can. I would say we brought it up, not just to combat it. We respect Garbage Time. Well, we respect. I'm saying, but what is the answer? Like, is Garbage Time really that valuable? That type of a thing. It wasn't. How much is to be found within thy garbage? Right. Yes. A lot of times you look at a situation. You go, they're going to be down. They're going to be throwing the ball a lot. So is this good? And so we wanted to give some data because we've all witnessed it, right? Like latent games. They're passing more. It's prevent defense. Now they're being able to move the ball. You get the Zachert's touchdown at the end of the game. Yeah, the Blake Bordles. And so we wanted to find out with data.

Is it valuable to target garbage time? I'm going to go ahead and spoil the answer. It's no. No, don't chase garbage time. Here's the data. When a team, we're looking basically at the quarterback position because as the quarterback goes, most of the team follows. When a team's win probability goes under 20%, they throw 70% of their plays. You think that's awesome for the quarterback. It sounds great. But they don't actually. get any more efficient per play, even though passing is far more efficient than running the ball. We looked at every quarterback over the last five years, and we set a line of 12 points for the final score, and who lost the game. Because we're trying to look at a blowout. Right, where there's actual garbage time, multiple scores. Only 27% of quarterbacks in those losses finished.

with 18 fantasy points, which is basically like one of those 12 quarterbacks. You should be starting in your league. The other 75%, nearly 75%, they average 197 yards and a half a touchdown. It's not great. As a turd. Yes. I mean, you don't want to start fantasy turds. And you can look at the Jets last week, right? The Jets, they threw the ball 59 times because they were... down for most of the second half had that garbage time, and yet Joe Flacco finished as the quarterback 21, Corey Davis, the wide receiver 31, Elijah Moore to the wide receiver 52, Garrett Wilson, the wide receiver 53. Throwing the ball does not make, look, if you're a bad team and you're down by a lot, you're having a bad game, you're just trying to get rescued out of terribleness, and every now and then it can happen, but the vast majority of time it doesn't. Whereas in close losses,

57% of quarterbacks in one score losses finished with that 18 plus fantasy points. It's more than double the rate of the guys in blowout losses and they average 257 passing yards and one and a half passing touchdowns. So how is this applicable? What are the takeaways? One, Vegas totals matter. Look at the game lines. Look at what's going on and try to get assets in those close. games, those games that could be back and forth and you're not sure who's going to win. Because in those like 10 points spreads, 85% of the time, the favorite team wins. And a lot of times it's going to be a blowout. Don't assume that garbage time will save you. Inefficient offenses stay inefficient. And for week two, this is great timing. There are five games this week that basically have a 10 point spread, 9.5 or 10.5 points. Houston, Denver.

Seattle, San Francisco, Chicago, Green Bay, Tennessee, Buffalo, and Atlanta against the Rams. So according to this data, don't really target those teams that are going to be down big and hope for garbage time. Is it possible that I can ask for some, maybe a never-not-working follow-up at some point on this study? Because I am curious how that data translates to the running back position. In particular, I think of the Flacco situation, 11 targets for Breece Hall, nine targets for Michael Carter, 20 to the running backs in garbage time. This data is based on will the quarterback perform for fantasy, right? So do you guys already have any information on the running back position? I can say that the laboratory is already filled with many scientists who are, in fact, studying. We are looking at this. Yes, we are looking at it. We are top men.

So even though we have some data, we're never not working. Yeah, we're always working over here. Okay. And that would be the scientist you employ. Yes. Got it. Well, it's science-y stuff. It's really, you see all the numbers that Jason was talking about? This is nerd stuff. I don't know. If you, quiet, if you listen close, you can hear the beakers right now. They are boiling. Work is getting done. Okay, that's good. A lot of chemicals involved in this data. Yes. Get up to 100% danderth protection that is never not working with head and shoulders scalp shield technology available at walmart.com. Use it every time you shampoo to see the difference. News and notes from around the league. Presented by USAA Insurance. Keenan Allen officially out for Thursday night football with the hamstring injury. Yeah.

There is a silver lining of sorts to this situation. If it was Sunday, maybe he tries to get back too fast. Now you have, he'll be absent tonight, but you have a full 10 days. They were optimistic about MRI results. I think there's a really good chance Keenan Ellen returns for week three against Jason on my team. Which is why your eyes rolled and I knew it immediately. Yeah, I don't, you know, I just want him to get extra healthy. There's a great chance he will be back. However, I do believe there's a quote coming out from Keenan Allen right now. He is still telling people to play him tonight. Okay, Mike, a little bit of bitterness. No, what? From years gone by? I would never. Isn't that more on you? No. It's on me that the athlete told me to play him? Are you playing J.K. Dobbins this week? He did. Because he would tell you to play him. Yeah, he would.

All right. Oh, goodness. And that's the second bit of news here. Didn't even know it. J.K. Dobbins returned to a full practice Wednesday. Still listed as questionable. I mean, they need, it's amazing watching the Ravens for now a year and a game where they just need a real running back. Not Devante Freeman, not LaDavius Murray, not Kenyon Drake, not Mike Davis. They need a real running back, and will they get one this week? Yeah, I don't know if JK Dobbins plays this week or not. Obviously, him being a full participant in practice is leaning that direction. But for fantasy purposes, you cannot play him in his first game back under any circumstance. I would play just about any running back out there. Once he's active, he will be a keep close eyes on him, watch his involvement, and I...

You know, you could say, well, if he has a great game, just deal with it on the bench. But he's not going to have a great game in his first game back. Can I put it to the test? Sure. Saw J.D. McKissick on some waiver wires. Would you play McKissick over? Yes. All right. Test completed. You passed. DeAndre Swift, did he? Oh, yep. Got me good. No. I heard Al giggle over there. He's so happy when he gets to throw the McKissick drop. I'm just so. disappointed in myself. I guess I'm too busy trying to provide like meaningful content to the listeners that I just don't even pay attention to. You did walk right up to the piece of cheese under the box. And you were like, oh, a piece of cheese. Snap. That's fair. That's fair. DeAndre Swift did not practice on Wednesday ankle injury. And the team signed Justin Jackson from the practice squad. So Mike, speaking of players saying that they're fine, DeAndre Swift said he's quote, not at all concerned.

Yet the team added Justin Jackson from the practice squad. Yeah, the addition of Jackson moving to the actual active roster, that's not fantastic for the outlook of D'Andre Swift. It was just Wednesday. So at least you have multiple days of practice reports that you're going to get to be able to make a better decision. As of now, I mean, I'm guessing he will still go. And if he goes, I'm going to put him in my lineup. But. This is definitely a situation to watch. It's such a shame because if he is fully healthy, which obviously right now he's not, he's dealing with an ankle issue, this was such a good matchup. I think that the offensive line for the Lions is going to be really, really good this year. And we didn't get to see it, even though he looked great in week one. Oh, he looked great. The Eagles D-line is, that's its own situation to deal with. So.

I was looking forward to him smashing this week, and this makes Jamal Williams a better play. All right, I'm going to throw this out here. The Tampa Bay wide receiver room is a hurt. Russell Gage with a hamstring didn't practice. Julio Jones with a knee, didn't practice. Chris Godwin with the hamstring, didn't practice. Mike Evans with a calf injury, didn't practice. Leonard Fournett, a pass catcher, one of the primary ones. that is available for Tom Brady. Limited with the hamstring. He is practicing today. But now, do we have practice supports for today then as well? And Julio is not out there. Yeah, Evans and Julio are not out there. I mean, this is, this is problematic for the Tom Brady start this week. Is it not? Yeah, it is. Tom Brady, obviously the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have not.

fared the best against the Saints. He's never beat him as a Tampa Bay Buccaneer. Yeah, the interior. Oh, really? All in four. Hot stat. You have a real strength with the Saints defensive line and a real weakness with the middle of the Buccaneers offensive line. If he does not have targets healthy to throw the ball to, it's going to be a bad outing for Mr. Brady. I'm looking to pivot if I can. you know, benching him for, you know, a Jared Gough for Marcus Mariotta. But yeah, a Stafford, a Derek Carr, those type of players. Winston? In the same game? Oh, man. Who we may or may not be talking about later? Well, then we'll talk about him later. There you go. Think about it. George Kittle didn't practice. Yarr. Megroin.

Oh, that had so much more built into it. That was not a traditional groin injury. That's a long-term groin injury. That's a sad, sad man. Nasi Harris Limited says he'll play in week two. I might believe Nazi on this one. Alan Lazard returned to practice on Wednesday, Mike. Are you excited to see him on the field? Yeah, much more than him being, you know, on the side for week one. T. Higgins, limited concussion, made it through some of the protocol, not all of it. Hopeful. Really, really good, though. What you look for for a player getting over the concussion protocol is just progression through the week. His timeline says, you know, we don't know it's unique to every person, but the timeline would indicate that he's on track to start. Cardinals wide receiver, Rondell Moore, remained sidelined. Zach Ertz, he didn't practice, is expected to practice in full today, according to Cliff Kingsbury, and it's worth noting he was on a snap count.

in week one for the Cardinals, managed to sneak into the end zone for some garbage time. But they expect him to play a much larger role and have a much larger allotment of snaps this upcoming week. And it's just worth noting in the matchup against the Raiders because they were, I mean, when Greg Dorch gets, what, nine targets? I believe so. There's opportunity. Let me just say that for Zacherts and Hollywood Brown to have bigger weeks. I think that makes it difficult, though, of like. Can you start Zach Ertz or where Greg Dorch felt like a pretty decent flyer with that target share that he got last week and they're going to have to score a bunch against the Raiders? Can you play either of those guys with any confidence now? Not Dorch. I don't play either one with confidence. Kyler came out this week and talked about not getting the ball enough to.

to Hollywood Brown. He said that the best receivers in the league get 10 plus targets every single week, and that's what we need to do with Hollywood. So I expect him to force the ball to Marquise Brown a little bit more this week than he did last week. I expect that as well. Mack Jones returned to practice. Looked pretty healthy. Yep. T.J. Watt for the defense, the Steelers, he's been placed on the injured reserve list. He's out at least four games. Michael Gallup. unlikely to play in week two, but did some team drills working his way back. They need him, but I don't think you're going to start him until DAC is the quarterback. Oh, I think he'll get back before Dak. I think he'll get back before Dak, but I said I don't think you're going to start him as a fantasy player until Dak is the quarterback. I thought you meant the Cowboys aren't going to start him until that's back. They'll give it their all. That makes a lot more sense. All right. That was today's news and notes presented by USAA Insurance.

Learn more at USAA.com slash insurance. Fantasy forecast. The New York Jets at 0-1-1-1-0 Cleveland Browns. The Draft King Sportsbook line, Cleveland minus six and a half at home. The over-under is 39 and a half points. Juicy. I mean, this is the matchup we wanted when we said, hey, NFL, let's get this season going. Give me some flacko versus Brissette. Let me just let the fireworks erupt over the field. That's one dud. Someone shoots the firework up. Nothing explodes and everyone goes home. This is like 1952 football. It's not going to be good. I mean, Brissette is awful. I'm just going to say it. Yeah. He may be a good leader in the locker room, but his skills have declined over the years every year. He's got a 6.4 yards per attempt.

It's gross. If you are chasing the Donovan People's Jones 11 targets, you have things to worry about. I'm not saying you can't give him a shot because somebody's going to catch some passes. But 39.5 point over under. Nick Chubb looked outstanding. Cream Hunt looked outstanding. And the Browns can win this game on the ground. I mean, they can absolutely send Miles Garrett at Joe Flacco with great success and then win the game on the ground. I don't expect. Like I wouldn't start Cooper and Donovan People's Jones with any sort of enthusiasm. No, I wouldn't either. In fact, any pass catcher, David and Joku, I would rather, there's other options that I think I would rather start, maybe continue to stash him, not Cooper, not Donovan, People's Jones. Really, there's three assets you could play from the Cleveland Browns. It's Nick Chub, Cream Hunt, which are both good plays and their defense. On the other side of the ball, there are some questions, particular.

particularly in the running back room for the Jets, as well as the wide receivers. Let's start with the running backs. Michael Carter, I mentioned it, 10 for 60 last week on the ground, nine targets, was on the field a ton. Breece Hall did get 10 targets, and I think that will go up. I think both rookies, Breast Hall and Garrett Wilson for the Jets, their coach came out and said basically, look, these guys got to grow up quick. We need them. And I agree. I mean, these are explosive players that you have to get the ball in their hands. But I'm not sure this is the, you flip the switch on Breece Hall this week. No, it's not the time because last week, all those targets, they were a great indication of future success. But that doesn't necessarily mean it's this week. Last week, that was a faster pace of play.

from the Baltimore Ravens, who in neutral game script were throwing the ball a ton. And this is going to be a very slow-paced Browns team running the ball, draining the clock. I don't expect that if Flacco comes out and throws it a ton, that he could even get close to his 59 attempts in this game. He's going to be inefficient with a lot of attempts. He's going to be inefficient with a few attempts. So there's not really... anyone I love here. I still, if I've got to pick someone to play, it would be Elijah Moore. Yes. Of the Jets wide receivers, it's Elijah Moore, who last week, it was, you know, seven targets, but he ran, he ran 55 routes compared to the other guys who are just, they're, like, Elijah Moore is the main guy for the New York Jets as of now. I do think, I am playing Garrett Wilson.

I am backed up against it. Oh, yes. I have a league where it's MBS or Garrett Wilson. I'm going to go with the young rookie who it was impressive to me. I mean, eight targets, four for 52, has some juice. I think a big play is very possible there. I don't blame anybody for shooting the shot on NBS. I think is very close. Would you guys both go NBS over Garrett Wilson because of the matchah? I would, yes. Maybe I'll change. I don't know. Yeah, looking into the matchups more this week, I would flip to MBS. Maybe I will. Maybe I will, guys. By the end of this show. Maybe I won't. The Washington commanders want to know. Manders. Taking on the Detroit Lions. Lions. At 0-1. The Draft King Sportsbook line. Detroit minus one and a half at home. The over-under is 48 and a half. So Guns Mahoney gave it as all. Still 0-1. This is the first time that the lines have been favorites in a game since their...

Is this true since November 2020 against the Panthers? Good work, Lions. They weren't a favorite at home at all last year. They were bad. Did you watch? Did you watch the line? Yeah. So Riverboat Run, Guns Mahoney facing off. What's interesting about this game is it's got a high over under, 48 and a half points. You have two offenses that, look, Jared Goff can throw the football. And. They could certainly be down. It should be a competitive game. Carson Wentz looked great in week one. Detroit allowed 455 total yards, third most in the league. So are there opportunities here for fantasy goodness? There are a ton of opportunities here. This is a game that I, you know, I think I would, if I had to bet over or under, I would go over on this game because.

The Lions' offense looked pretty darn good, week one, against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Manders got it together as the game went on last week as well. So neither defense scares me, and I think both offenses have enough pieces and some exciting young, fresh pieces, some athletes like DeAndre Swift and Jahan Dotson that can break a big play and then just have scoring go back and forth. So in this game, I love Antonio Gibson. Obviously, you're starting D'Andre Swift. But the ancillary pieces, Jamal Williams, I think you can play, especially with the ankle injury to D'Andre Swift. And we've had a lot of debate and discussion. I think a lot of it was on the party room yesterday. I don't remember how much was on the main show about Curtis Samuel, who I think is a fine start this week. I'm very excited to see what the Mander's wide receiver core does this week of...

I mean, all three of them came through. It was kind of a Terry McLaurin bomb touchdown that saved his day. Well, the rookie Dodson had the multi-touchdowns. But Curtis Samuel, when it comes to at least just opportunities, Curtis Samuel was the one who got far more than the other players, 11 targets, four carries. And it's hard to remember, but back in 2020, back when Curtis Samuel was on the Panthers, like, After week six, he was really, really solid for fantasy purposes. Finishing as a top 24 options and the vast majority of those games was brought in with the big contract. So I'm excited to see, does that carry over? You can't say for sure after week one that Curtis Samuel will be the guy. You can't say that Terry McLaurin will be the guy with just what's happening for that wide receiver core.

So very excited to see how it shakes out. When it comes to my own lineup, though, I would be willing to play all three of these wide receivers as a flex type. Alman Ra, we're going to talk about him later. He's a great start. DJ Chark was four for 52 in a touchdown last week. Eight targets of like one of the league leaders in air yards this past week. DJ Chark is going to be, I think. underrated and undervalued the entirety of the year and then just end up finishing in the top 36. I don't think the entirety of the year because I think Jameson Williams will get back and muddy the water for him. Perhaps. Maybe until then. Okay. But like, that's a while. I mean, Jameson Williams, I think they said they're hoping for November. Okay. So that's forever from now. I don't care about November right now. Yeah, he's technically on the four game I are, right?

He's on the IR, which you can come back after four weeks, but you can stay there forever. Let's, Jason, putting your, do you have the courage to start wins or golf over Brady? Oh, baby. I don't have the courage to start wins or golf over Brady. I do think that they are streaming options for someone that lost the DAC, but I would still go Brady over, you know, unless. Julio is gone and Russell Gage is gone and Mike Evans is gone. Then sure. What about T.J. Hawkinson? Last question on this matchup. 91% of snaps, kind of just T.J. Hawkinson. Yeah. I mean, if you've got them, you're going to start them and you're just hoping you get a touchdown. All right. And you won't. And you won't. Quick break here and then we're back with another matchup.