The TRUTH: Top 10 Fantasy QBs + Most Surprising Teams - Fantasy Football Podcast for 1/18

Well, the truth episodes, they're finally here. We break down the quarterback position. Which players could you rely on? Hint, it's not a lot of them. And which players do we like moving forward? Don't miss a minute of it. Subscribe right here and enjoy. To the Fantasy Footballers podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Oh, welcome in. Thursday, January 18th.

The Fantasy Footballers podcast, Mike Wright, Jason Moore, Andy Holloway, back with you. You know who won't be back? Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh? Yeah, yeah, yeah. That's fair. As far as Jason prophesied. I mean, it was, it was tough to predict, but sometimes we get some things right. So we begin today with our first truth episode of the off season, which is always... A very anticipated set of episodes. We are going to take a deep dive into the performance of the quarterback position this year. And the truth can be hard to hear sometimes. You're not going to like the truth today. I will say this, going through preparing all these docs, looking at how we score these truth metrics, I did not like it.

I was like, this is... No, you were in physical discomfort. I was super upset. I'm like, no, this is wrong. Lie to me. Yeah, exactly. This can't be the truth. Yeah, but we'll get into it here in a couple minutes, but it's a little unsettling. Let me ask you this, and you can just tease it because we will. We'll break it all down. Did anything you discovered in your journeys that we're going to share, change how you'll draft the quarterback position next year? I think it did. Yeah. Okay. But I'm not saying yet. Yeah. He thinks it did. We'll find out. A couple things at the top. Welcome in. We want to thank everybody that's been supporting this show by heading over to footclanvote.com. There's some. There's a new one. There's, Mike is. No, there's a new one. This is important stuff. This one is actually important. Well, they're all important. No, they're not. They're all important because I love to win. Anything. It sustains my life meter.

And got to get some wins in there. So there is the sports podcast awards. That fan vote is still going. But the FSGA, which is essentially one of the two large fantasy sports associations, they do a best social media award that has never not been won by the fantasy footballers. And we don't want to start losing now. So you must go to footclanvote.com. and click on that vote now. Continue the FSGA. The dynasty. Yeah, but look, the Foot Clan's undefeated. You guys want, you're listening. You want to be a loser? Yeah, yeah. Put it on them. You don't want to be a loser. Go win. Nothing better than shaming your fans. No, I'm saying they, you guys are undefeated. Stay undefeated. This is my pep talk. And where do they go, Jason? Footclanvote.com. All right. Quick question of the day. It's a good one.

I'm curious your answer. Which NFL team this year ended up being the most different from how you envisioned them before the 2023 season? And I think it's a good question. I personally tried to go away from the, you know, just. Jason's answer. The surprise team because, you know, I view, I mean, that's fine. A surprise team fits the bill for that, for sure. I wanted to pick a team that was. that we had kind of forecasted the way that they would operate. And a team that kind of flipped that on its head. And it still ended up doing a lot of things for fantasy managers, but in a different way. And for me, that was the Dallas Cowboys. Because a lot of the offseason was dominated by the transition from a high-flying, Kellyn Moore. Why would you get rid of this guy offense?

A lot of negative things were said about Mike McCarthy and what we expect the office to be. Because he was telling us some things. He was like the quote of, I got to, we got to keep the offense out there or whatever it was like, we're scoring too fast. We're scoring too fast. So we're making our defense tired and kind of letting on that. No, we're going to be a high tee run the ball as many times as we lost. Well, yeah. I mean, a high tea. They brought in Brian Cornelius Schottenheimer. Uh, as the, is that the middle name for it. All right. That's a Kyle special right there. Thank you, Kyle. Um, and, uh, I mean, he's, he's a run the ball guy. This is a Tony Pollard system. So, so all the bullets on the, on the, you know, outline of the Dallas Cowboys in the off season said, you know, is Tony Pollard would be given every opportunity. I think we were a little surprised that they didn't bring in a, you know, another bigger back to compliment and do the Zich roll when he departed.

But there was a lot of concern about DAC's potential production and CD Lamb's involvement in the passing offense and whether Brandon Cooks made any sense because they wouldn't throw the ball as much. And it, you know, really was the opposite. I mean, once, Pollard was one of the biggest busts. I mean, I think if our footy award didn't go to Echler, it was going to Pollard in terms of early draft capital investment invested in a running back. And then if you had the DAC CD stack from the middle of the season on. You were probably in your title game, and you likely won it. So from a passing success standpoint, it was much better, consolidated to what Dak could do and C.D. could do in the offense. And to me, that was, you know, different than we envision them. It was definitely different. I'm now remembering the whole, the way that the McCarthy Dallas Cowboys era started. It started on the foundation of a lie. Do you guys remember this? Where.

he like his first press conference oh yes i remember when he all watching all the film yeah he told jerry jones he had broke down all the film and he gets he signs on the line gets all the cash secured and then his first media appearance he's like oh i didn't watch the film at all yeah he goes oh you're a dirty liar i have to tell the truth i i lied about that yeah that was we should have known at that point mccarthy known liar so real quick before you give me your team then just to follow up there with mccarthy

Do you want him to stay? Yes. Like as a fantasy manager, we do that. For fantasy, I, yeah, I think I do. Yeah, I mean. Big McCarthy fans over there. You too. You've got to give credit. I mean, yeah. Yeah, their, their offense was great until the playoffs. So the team that I went with is a lot of people's team, right? Like the Hughes of Texans were a huge surprise. America's team. America's team. That's right. From Texas. Best team in Texas. Yeah. How does it feel? But the way that it was surprising and the preseason prognostication, really the only player, if you look at ADP that anyone wanted from the Texans was Damian Pierce. That's the only one that's going to do anything. Whoops. Yeah, it was Damian Pearson, no one else. He was the only one that didn't do anything. Everyone else was great. I mean, obviously, C.J. Stroud was a revelation. But Nico Collins was great.

Tank Dell. Yes, sir. Noah Brown? Sure. Dalton Schultz. Heck yeah. Devin Singletary? Just not the only player that you drafted in Damian Pierce. And, you know, the historical data on a rookie quarterback, since 2004, 70% of the time, they don't have a single top 36 wide receiver. So you kind of avoided... these receiving options in Nico Collins and Take Dell, at least, you know, in high draft capital situations, it was so the opposite. CJ Stroud is the first rookie ever to support two top 15 wide receivers in points per game. Tank Dell and Nico Collins were just stars. And I don't know how much of them. You realize that CJ Stroud led the NFL in yards per game. Yeah, I mean, he was unbelievable. I mean, that's a rookie. Yeah.

This is, I mean, for better or for worse, with the rookie season that Justin Herbert had and then the rookie season that C.J. Stroud had, like, people are going to take their shots at some of these rookie quarterback situations, which they probably should. Because, you know, the price you paid for Nico Collins or Tank Dell or Dalton Schultz was nothing. Well, the question is just, will you be able to pay that same price and take the shot? Or will... This kind of success mean that people are going, that the consensus will try to take the shot, which means that it costs more. What do you think, Mike? Who is the team that was the most different from what you envisioned? So they weren't necessarily the most different, but they were, they exceeded the expectation. Like everything that you thought about the lions was, there was, there were options there. You know, uh,

Jamir Gibbs was like a fourth rounder. Montgomery was a guy that we liked all offseason who was going in the seventh or eighth. This is a late round running back that you can get who should be. He'll have some spike weeks. But it was like the skill players on Detroit were incredible. They weren't just good for fantasy football. They were fantastic. Jamir Gibbs, you know, once the breakout happened, was one of the best running backs in the league. Both him and Montgomery were top 12 running backs in points per game. Amman Ra went from like, oh, he's a real, he's a Keenan Allen consistent guy. If I'm in a PPR, I'm so stoked to have Amman Ra as my wide receiver too. He went from that to a true dominant number one wide receiver who was winning weeks. He was nominated for the playoff king. I mean, yet again, this is, I think we should just expect this now for Amman Ra at the end of the year.

That you have that. Sam Leporta, the tight-in one as a rookie, that's essentially impossible. We had some really impossible stuff happen between Stroud and Leporta this year. And then Jared Gough was what you expected, but he was actually a bit better, a bit better. There was a few more spike weeks and some really heavy spike weeks that you could foreshadow on a more consistent basis. So they... They impressed me. And so since 2000, this is the only team with two top 12 fantasy running backs, a top five wide receiver and a top five tight end. The Saints back in the day were close. But this was an output that you had hoped for, but just exceeded all expectations. And we'll talk more about golf because we'll be talking about quarterback truth today and on our next episode as well. So quick jump into the news. News and notes from around the league.

First episode, since we have the opportunity to talk about the Monday night games, Buffalo handled Pittsburgh. Mike Tomlin exited quickly from the press conference. Yeah, so I'll respond to that. So Pittsburgh actually, I thought they did better than I thought they were. Throwing that interception early in the game in the red zone, in the end zone. Yes. Disrupted their real opportunity to. To steal that one. We had a 14-point victory for Buffalo, and it was, I mean, it was a seven-point game. There was a chance that Pittsburgh could have come back, but Buffalo pulled away. I've seen the reactions to Mike Tomlin's rapid exit from the post-game media conference there, which we have part of the news here is that Mike Tomlin has informed the team. He will be back for 2024, so those rumblings are gone. But I saw a lot of people.

getting onto uh getting on to tomlin for leaving with that question but you're like he's a human being who just had a devastating playoff loss and you're like hey What are you going to do next year? It's like, I get you, you're a professional, so you need to be able to handle those types of questions. But stop asking those questions. I, those are garbage questions. I don't know. Jason has a different opinion. I'm totally on the other side. They're garbage. No, they're, they're doing their job. They're reporting. They want to know. And it's like that to me is such a just natural question. I would have asked the question. I would have been like,

Are you back next year? How do you feel like why would, why is that an off-limits question? To me, whether you think it's dumb or not, it's dumb to not expect it. That's what I would say. Yes. Any head coach with a long tenure that knows his own contract. Yeah. Should not be surprised at what they receive relationally to that. I mean, Belichick knew he would receive those questions. And I believe he just said something like, you know, yeah you know we just got done with this game and you know he just kind of he played the he played the game that's that's what was overtly angry and i i actually don't know what came before i don't know if that was the third time he got that question or if he got it before the game or whatever so i give him a pass because whatever you know he's he's mike tomlin maybe the question didn't hit at the right time but you've got to be you can't be shocked at the

That's what I'm saying. Like how Tampa will deal with the weather in Detroit? Like would you say that that's a good question to ask? I would say on the foundation, it seemed like a well-researched and well-intended question. Who? There was just one small, this is a teeny tiny detail that. was missed. If you are not familiar with what we are alluding to, the question was asked to Todd Bowles about how they're going to prepare for the cold weather in Detroit, who plays in a dome and has played in a dome forever. It's like, his answer was so funny because he's.

Not only does he kind of roll his eyes at it and be like, you know, they're playing a dome. But then when he specifically is like, we'll only be outside for like 30 seconds when we go from the bus to the inside. We'll be okay. I don't think we're going to prepare. Those are the kind of questions that you, uh, no, no, I want better questions. Better than that. Those are the type of questions I would be asking. Oh, yeah. Whoops. They're not active. How do you survive? that question though in your in your journalism career just got to you do you exit immediately do you just say you are goodbye you are very thankful that bowls was kind yeah yeah he was he was like he could have just destroyed that person i'm that was a turtle shirt situation yeah it was yeah like please hide in your shirt all right uh Tampa bay just absolutely

wanted it more is what I'm going to say. Philadelphia, the end of the season from a 10-1 team to losing 6 of 7, they lose 32 to 9. There was an energy from Green Bay this week against Dallas. There was an energy from Tampa Bay against Philadelphia that those NFC East teams, they couldn't match it this week. You know, Tampa tackled better. Tampa, you know, they fought for the extra yard. Like I give so much credit to Todd Bowles, who talk about like a, A short stick, so to speak. Sure. You lose Brady. You've had these years of, you know, in New York and just opportunities to win that you couldn't, you didn't have personnel. Their amount of dead cap was astronomical. So, you know, it's a huge testament to the coaching staff in Tampa, preparing the team to, you know, everybody involved Baker Mayfield. Congratulations on kind of a maturation process here.

You know, this is not the same guy that we saw a year ago when he looked like what Bryce Young looked like in Carolina. I mean, he was brought in just to compete with Kyle Trask. He wasn't brought in to be the starter. And he just owned it. He owned this season. He's still playing in the playoffs. And it's funny because I saw people complaining about the blowouts in the playoffs this week. And like, what are you going to do about this NFL? You're, you know, these are. It's like two of these blowouts was the. non-favored teams. What do you mean? What are you going to do about it? This is great competition. And it's great TV when you're sitting there and you're going, what is happening? I think I tweeted like the NFL is great for a lot of reasons. But one of them is that these things can happen any given week. You know, the line between a good team and an underdog, like it just seems like any given week somebody can break through. And these were trouncings. Yeah. And I'm with Jason. They were.

despite the score and knowing the game is over, it was still fascinating. Like the machine of the Green Bay Packers offense against the Dallas defense, which saw a bunch of, you know, like the super sharps breaking down personnel and just how badly the Dallas Cowboys defense got outcoached from a personnel standpoint. You're like, why is Aaron Jones? Just every time he touches the ball, he's getting at least five yards. And it was, well, Green Bay recognized that Dallas kept staying small against their big guys. And just how effective and incredible Green Bay was. And the same for Tampa. It was really fun to watch. And, you know, we'll get into it. We've got a whole offseason of shows. But the Philadelphia situation is going to be one that is tumultuous at best. They have so many free agents.

Jason Kelsey is leaving. That relationship, that departure, the tush push and all of that. Which got stopped. Is that why he's retiring? Oh, it was like once they stop and I'm out? Yeah. Like maybe. It's like fine. I'm not playing anymore. Did he walk off the field then and actually turn in the paperwork? I believe Tampa also stopped us. I think I think Tampa stopped it. The last time, too, it was like week three or whenever they played. So they've got the secret. Apparently the secret is Vita Vaya. Have a big, gigantic, awesome nose tackle. Yeah, the secret to the, to completing it successfully was Jason Kelsey. Yeah, exactly. So, you know, he'll be gone. There's a lot of negative energy around. The fans want the coach gone. Around the team. And Jalen Hertz had a huge drop off in the back half of the year. So it'll be a huge discussion. It will not be a.

I think an automatic assumption that this offense will just get back to form. No Shane Steichen. It hurt. Played a big role. AJ Brown delete social media stuff for the Eagles. It will be unsurprising to me in whatever two months time. If the report comes out, oh, Jalen Hurst was actually way more hurt than we thought. That's true. It's possible. He did not run. One for five in that game. Saints fired their offensive coordinator. I've spoken to some Saints fans that I know. They do not feel this is enough. I don't know. Yeah. I mean, no Saints fan I know wants Dennis Allen as the coach. No. Nor do any of the offensive players that just usurped him. But that's what happened. Are they going to go full Lord of the Flies down there? Just let the kids run. Like they fire the coach, but they don't hire one? No, I'm saying, no, the coach is like, yeah, the coach is there, but just. What if it's Winston? The team takes over. Winston takes over.

James is the head coach? Yeah, man. Yeah, I mean, some people just want to watch the world. James, what's the play call? Chuck it. James, James, it's first and goal on the one. Chuck it. Did you hear what I said? Air it out. You see those Olave unrealized air yards? We're about to double them. Oh, boy. All right. Any other news, Brooks? Are you got anything else for us? No, sir. All right, we'll take a quick break. We'll come back with the truth. You know, after that break, I'm not positive Winston would be a great head coach. Not positive. What? I don't. Just an offensive coordinator. I hear a loud and clear. Yeah. All right. Let's take a look at that quarterback position. You want answers. I think I'm entitled. You want answers. I want the truth. You can't handle the truth.

I'm glad to see we did not upgrade the graphic from last year that you were so upset with. I don't see what the problem is. You know, Brooks did come to me and ask if I wanted it to be fixed. And he's never looked better. And I said, just roll with it. Just do it. Just go with it. Oh, dude. Put that on the list of possible shame ideas. Old-timey judge. Yeah, that's good. What do they call it? Is that a B. Barrister. No, that's like a lawyer in the UK. Is a barrister? Am I right? Am I on to something? Yeah, we looked this up last year and I think had about a five-minute discussion. That's a bear. Thanks, Brooks. All right. Let's get into it. The top 10 quarterbacks from 2023, the truth about the position, about how they affected your fantasy team, about the investment you made in each round on quarterbacks and some league-wide passing trends. We always like to start this.

section with kind of a lay of the land, a survey of what's going on. It was less efficient for pass. The defenses are getting too good. Passers. You also had a lot of quarterback injuries this year that really played a part of it. This was the lowest touchdown rate since 2011. Gross. We often look at that individually at quarterbacks that maybe out, you know, performed or underperformed. This was the lowest rate, 4.09% since 2011. The lowest fantasy points per pass attempt since 2011. Gross. And the fantasy points per pass attempts have, it's dropped for three consecutive seasons since 2020. And, you know, the overarching question is, did you feel that for fantasy? Did you notice that for fantasy? Yeah, I think that you did. But really it came, I believe it came on the back of injuries.

Whether there was injuries to wide receivers, like when Mike Williams and Keenan Allen got banged up for Herbert, or when quarterbacks got injured and you lost Kirk Cousins and Herbert. The backups that came in, some of them, like a Jake Browning, was okay. But for the most part, it really crushed fantasy this year. The difficult part with the backups that performed is that nobody bought in in in week one. Most people didn't buy in for week two. And then when you could buy into one of them, it was like, is the starterback? You know, it was, it's hard to nail those when it comes to streaming quarterbacks. There were 67 quarterbacks that started an NFL game this year and 43 different quarterbacks that had a top 12 performance. 67 quarterbacks started. That is, that's just insane. Too many. That's way too many.

So, I mean, we had the whole Tyson Bilbo agent part of the year. Bailey Zap, he got stars. Mitch Trubisky was in there. Danny DeVito. Even Tommy DeVito. And Carson wins. He even got a start. That's right. He did. For Jason and his great bet. You must feel so dumb, Mike. Or do you still believe in Mount Ryan? I feel it's not really dumb. It's just a disappointment that the NFL would allow that to happen. Well, you know, you lost. Jason, you want to give everybody an overview of kind of what, like a general reminder of what we mean by the truth of these players. Yeah, so what we do, you know, a lot of times we use the word consistency, but it's more than just consistency because we do factor in how often they had great games versus good games versus average games versus bust games versus super bust games. So we take a look at basically different thresholds of points.

for these quarterbacks. You know, a great game is more than 26 points. A bust game is fewer than 15 points in four point passing touchdown leagues. Super bus game is fewer than nine points. You're single digits. You're just crushing someone. And we kind of score them individually based upon how it looks historically, what is helpful for fantasy. And it's also worth noting that we don't. We don't penalize it. When we're looking at these numbers and these rankings, we don't penalize missed games that you knew the player wasn't going to play. Like if you couldn't start them in fantasy, then even though obviously them missing the game hurt you, you know. It was a prepared damage. Exactly. And so this is when these quarterbacks played, when they were started and you started them in a fantasy, how helpful were they really?

I'm going to jump real quick, just a smidge ahead to give you the best example of quarterbacks as a whole and what really upset me when I was looking at the truth talk. I'm going to talk about Lamar Jackson. Lamar Jackson finished the season as the quarterback three. And when I was doing this, we do this every year and we look at the truth of these quarterbacks, I couldn't wait to see how bad Lamar Jackson was and the truth score because he was very inconsistent. He had a lot of games that let you down. And in the actual score that we do every single year on the season, he was the fourth best quarterback in fantasy. The truth is he was still really, really good for fantasy. Relative to other options. Relative to the other options because everyone was inconsistent this year minus two guys. I mean, it was a...