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Main show · May 21, 2020

Studio Return + Big Boy Questions, Sweat Issues - Fantasy Football Podcast

RSSMay 21, 2020 · transcript indexed
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Studio Return + Big Boy Questions, Sweat Issues - Fantasy Football Podcast

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Inside the episode

113 passages
28:03 ↗

Got started up again. Huge opportunity. You got us, that, that thing's going to take. It's a post-type sleeper. Last year, Chris Herndon was someone that people were all about. They were really excited. I would. We. At least in the UDK. Yeah. Andy and I were, were about the Hernden life. Yeah, I mean, and then he ended up. He was not about it. He was. He only played in one game. But he's coming back and reports out of the Jets area are, are that, um,

28:31 ↗

They expect big things for Hernan this year. But to the question of James and Crowder, I think he will get a ton of targets like he usually does. As I say, he's not a player that's going to take a step forward. He will be what he is. Yeah. But especially in the PPR, yeah. There should be extreme value for James and Crowder. I've got him with 125 targets and not getting to 900 yards. Now.

28:58 ↗

If I recall, Herndon was suspended then on his return from suspension got hurt. That is correct. Well done. But now. But now. No longer suspended. That's true. Or hurt. We hope. Okay. Well, that's good. Chris in Liverpool. Oh, bonjour. There you go. In a Superflex league draft.

29:23 ↗

When do you suggest taking quarterbacks? In Mox, they fly off the board early. Mahomes and Jackson are always off the board before the middle of the second round. PPR Superflex. Where do you suggest taking quarterbacks? You know, we've always advocated the tier-based drafting, the ultimate draft kit. We do all of the positions in tiers. And so it doesn't really change going to a Superflex saying,

29:51 ↗

You know, you're drafting quarterbacks not based on I don't draft until the 10th round. You're drafting quarterbacks based on I need someone from this tier. That's where I feel comfortable. That's where I think the value is. And then if in your specific league, in a one quarterback league, that tier of quarterback ends up being the seventh round because everyone's drafted them or the 10th, then whatever. So when you apply that to a super flex league, I think you take a look at the tiers and say, I want a quarter, I want, you know, three quarterbacks total.

30:19 ↗

And so I'm going to take two of these late guys that I like and maybe one of those medium type players. And from league to league, it's different. If you want Pat Mahomes or Lamar Jackson, that could be the second and third pick gone in the first round. I wouldn't take that approach. So I'm probably starting my quarterbacks somewhere around round four. But that's, it's totally different for every league.

30:43 ↗

Mike, do you have anything, Dad? Yeah, it's just, it's looking at the point differential inside the position. Like the running backs, wide receivers are getting in the first round. Compare them to, let's say you have the 101. Like, now you're at the back of the, or at the back of the second, beginning of the third. What's the difference between those, just those running backs there? And if you had taken a quarterback comparatively to a quarterback, you can get in the fourth or the fifth round, they're just.

31:11 ↗

Quarterbacks are much closer. And more repeatability generally happens at the wide receiver position than the quarterback position from year to year fluctuation. Right. And it's so like to finalize what I'm saying is like, yeah, you'll have, every year we'll have a Lamar Jackson of Patrick Mahomes, one outlier quarterback. But the rest of those guys, they're not that far apart. And let's say you wait, right? Let's say you wait in this two quarterback league and you end up with your first two quarterbacks being laid around guys, Ben Rothersberger and Matthew Stafford.

31:40 ↗

that's right that's great those two specifically if you could position yourself to grab those two guys and then you grab a third late guy like a derrick car or you know even like a drew lock that's a hopeful i would be a hundred percent fine with that and the rest of my roster is loaded right all right let's go to uh tom in ohio one player keeper league godwinner jacobs that's a great question i see those guys

32:11 ↗

So similar, respectively. Godwin is to the wide receiver, what Jacobs is to the running back. Really? Yeah, in my rankings, I think that's probably fair. My first impression is it's like, oh, Jacobs is riskier. But Godwin's fairly risky in the new situation, too, and done it for a year, and Jacobs was dominant on the ground. I see it as Jason does. The one thing I'll throw out there before you answer is just that if you're in a one player, two player, three player keeper league, please don't overemphasize the idea of.

32:41 ↗

long-term commitments to players. Right. Yeah. It's not a dynasty league. If you're on a one, two, three-player keeper league, it's okay to have turnover at that keeper position. Don't spend all of your time thinking, because you might think, oh, wide receiver. I'm just going to go to the wide receiver for long-term value here. That's not, I would actually probably lean the Jacob's side. Those type of leagues, one or two keepers, where people aren't wanting to, say, keep Julio Jones. Because he's like, well, he's 31. What?

33:10 ↗

You keep it. You know, it's fantastic. All you care about is this next year. 1,400 yards counts just as much at 31. Yeah. So here I lean the Josh Jacobs side, but it's close. Where do you currently have Josh Jacobs in your running backs? Do you have that number in front of you? I can grab it. I've got Josh Jacobs as my running back 10, Chris Godwin as my wide receiver 7. Okay. So they're there. If I had those rankings, yeah, I would go.

33:36 ↗

with Josh Jacobs at six. And that's perfectly fine. But I say it like that every time. It's always a whisper. What the whisper is saying, your subtext is, please get the passing work. You're saying, I've got him at, please get the passing work. That's how I told John Grude as well. I said, I got him at six. Grudes. Six targets a game. Come on. Right now I have Godwin at three and Jacobs at 11 in their respective position. So if I'm into draft,

34:04 ↗

I would probably take Godwin first, and that's how I would approach this. All right. Andres in Albuquerque says, if I purchase the 2020 ultimate draft kit and the NFL is canceled due to COVID-19, do we get a refund or subscription for the following year? Well, this is something we've thought about. It's a great. That's a great question. Look, Foot Clan has always been great to us. We want to be great to the Foot Clan. If you get the draft kit, even though we're making the whole draft kit, and it's going to release here in 11 days, and we did all the work,

34:33 ↗

And you got to read it. If there's no football this year, that's no good to you. So you get the ultimate draft kit the next year. I mean, that's just, boom, bam, you're not wasting any money here. Yeah. Yeah, that's, uh, that's how we're going to do it. So hopefully we have football. Also, yes. Oh, please have football. Also, we're, we're going to have football. Yeah. Like, I mean, yeah, everything. Yeah. The, the latest things coming out are like.

34:59 ↗

We already know we're going to have players. Without fans, they're letting it happen. Yeah, we know we're going to have players test positive. Like, we're figuring out what we're going to do in those situations. It's happening. I just want to see the face masks that have a bunch of technology built into them. Now, see, like face masks. Do you guys remember when players would have these super shredder masks in training camp? Like Darnell Dock it? Was it Jason Pierpaul? Did Pierre Paul have one too? Oh, he looked like shredder. And they look.

35:29 ↗

Awesome. They look like superheroes. Let's just do that, man. Jam it all up. Put some kind of filter in there and we're good to go. Watch them pass out. Then I feel like you zoom back from the stadium and it's just the whole, what's the movie that you love that we hate? Blade Runner? Blade Runner. It's just dust. There's just rolling hill. It's just dystopian football. I will take dystopian football. I agree. I agree. No, I mean, look, we have the potential to create some cool.

35:59 ↗

technology and like a lot of the stuff that's happening innovation-wise right will pay dividends in other areas for longer periods of time well remember do you guys remember last season the patriots were so sick with the flu like not yes COVID didn't exist yet on on planet earth that they had to take two planes I think it was they were going to I want to say Tampa Bay they were flying down in two planes a sick plane and a healthy plane

36:26 ↗

I mean, the regular flu is going to be far less prevalent this here among the players. People joke about us getting sick. We got the three kids and they're each and they're in school. And we've had these months where Jason's hacking. We just take turns. I'm hacking or Mike's hacking. Look, the amount of things we've installed around the studio, I'm not going to say, you know, we may grow an extra arm or something like that from the level of UV light that will be around the studio. But we ain't getting sick anymore. No, never again.

36:54 ↗

You heard it here. Ugh. All right. Maybe sometimes. Yeah, we're definitely going to get sick. All right. Tony in Atlanta, as an analyst, when you stat out a player, each player, are those totals always assuming a full season of games plate? Yes and no. 90. Well, always by definition, you can just say no then. Well, but it is almost always. Yes, except when it's not. Well, okay, almost always. No, it's not always.

37:22 ↗

There are players that have a long enough track record of injury that I do consider that in my season long. I presume 12 games or 13 games. Most of the time, I project an exact 16 game schedule. There are players I account for injury. I can only think of one player, and I'm sure there were three or four, but the only player is coming to mind that I know I nerfed the stats a little bit of because I expect a couple of missed games was James Connor.

37:52 ↗

That was the only one that I kind of actively said. I didn't stat him specifically for 14 games, but I nerfed the stats a little bit, assuming that there will be some missed time. That's almost always. Mike, do you account for that? I project 16. I will bake in some injury risk where, like, games are lower, but I'm still projecting for 16, though the only guys where I...

38:18 ↗

actually lop-off games are quarterback positions like Chicago, where I have Foles projected as the main starter, but I think Trubisky plays some games. Same thing for the chargers. For the chargers with the Taylor and the rook. Did you go 16 for Fitzpatrick in Miami, or did you split those? No, I split those as well. Yeah, so there you go. It is important. You mentioned one word there, Mike, that is relevant to the way we project in stat players, which is risk. Yes, yes.

38:48 ↗

build a risk rating into each player. So even if we project someone for 16 games, which is the majority of the time, like you said, if they have a high risk rating, you need to take that into account when you're making that value proposition in your draft. Yeah, if you're looking at two players back to back, they're projected about the same, same position, everything's good, and one's got a risk rating of eight and the other's got a risk rating of two. That's an easy choice for it. Was it Justin Tuck that had the mask and not Jason Pierpaw? That might have been right. Yeah, I think it was Justin Tuck. Thank you, Al.

39:17 ↗

Let's go here. Dynasty trade first round question. Sam and Hoboken. Oh, we got Sheboygan and Hoboken. These towns are lit. No, high-fives. Get your hands off of each other. Would you trade Leonard Fernett and the 105 rookie pick? Okay. For Cortland Sutton and Marlon Mack. Wow.

39:43 ↗

Okay, I'm going to need to hear that again. I was looking at Justin Tuck's face mask. It's awesome. Yeah. You could wear that in here. I would be safe everywhere I go. The grocery store, I'm just wearing Justin Tuck's helmet. Nothing can get through the mesh. No. All right. Would you trade Leonard Fournette and the 105 rookie for Cortland Sutton and Marlon Mack? Oh, man. And what I love about this question is I look at like Fournette and Mac maybe in the exact same. Possibly. Like.

40:12 ↗

longevity quotient. Like those two players, they might be expiring. Check the date. And the 105 could be Cortland Sutton's teammate. Jerry Judy. Oh. This question is ridiculous. Next question. So let's assume it's Jerry Judy there. Okay. And you might not be able to get, but would you trade Leonard Fournette and Jerry Judy for Cortland Sutton and Marlon Mac. I would not. I would rather have the season of Leonard's. This trades incredible. Fournet and Mac are both playing on different teams next year.

40:43 ↗

Agreed. Hopefully. Like they hope they're playing on another team. I will take the Sutton and Max side. They hope they have a job. Exactly. Yeah, I'll take the Sutton and Max side. That's how I lean. Or just, you know. And known that Cortland Sutton is a great wide receiver. We hope Jerry Judy is a great wide receiver. Correct. Correct. Anthony in Norco, California, how are you drafting tight-ins in a tight-in premium dynasty startup?

41:10 ↗

Tightings get one point five points per reception. It's an interesting question too because some of the tight ends that are kind of that have been in the conversation, the upper echelon, Ertz, Kelsey in particular, are older. They are getting up there. Correct. So a tight end premium in a dynasty startup. I'm not going to do much. I mean.

41:31 ↗

As in you're not going to overcompensate. Yeah, I'm not going to change too much. I feel like, you know, it's every tight end will get that same bump. It's kind of like when people ask the question, well, what about six point for passing touchdown quarterback leagues? You know, quarterbacks are a premium. Do I bump them up? Well, it happens for all of them. I mean, it'll rearrange some of them, obviously the guys who are. Well, what it does, not necessarily the rearranging is it takes Travis Kelsey from.

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