Rookie WR Expectations + Trade Respect - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/6

I don't know who you are, but I do know what you need. I can tell you, I know some gentlemen with a very particular set of skills. Skills they have attained over a long career of studying tape and statistics. Skills they want to share to make you a nightmare for the rest of your league. Head over to www.ultimatedraftkick.com and order it right now. You will be prepared for your draft. Your league will be frightened of you. And you will kill them. To the Fantasy Footballers podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Welcome in the Fantasy Footballers Saturday episode of the show. Saturday. We are into July, which means three shows a week until we flip that.

Dangerous switch to five a week starting in August through the end of the football season. Any, you know, special routines, preparation, hydration, hydration, related things that you do to get ready for five shows a week? Yeah. What did you say? Preparation H. Oh. So you're not quite in regular season form. Yeah. Yeah. He's working up to it. I thought you meant HGH. Like you do a little human growth from. I mean, I do that. I do that too, but I also just make sure that things are taking care. Right. I mean, you definitely want to make sure that you are prepared. Yeah. Yeah. Do you know how much I'm on the couch in football season? Let me, let me show the watchers of the show over here on YouTube how many people are sitting over inducer's alley. We got one. Yeah, we just got one bald guy. And, um,

Look, do we want, would we prefer a dude with hair producing the show? Yeah. Yeah, yeah, I would. But we don't have that option today. We got Papa Josh in the building and, you know, what, we'll take it. Yeah, that's fine. I do think that you bring up a really good idea for the show, which is to get several wigs. And then we pick what Papa Josh looks like for each show. Maybe he could be a punk rock. Maybe he's emo. You know, I think we should. Wow. We should. be in charge of capping Papa Josh. Papa Josh, have you ever considered to be a two-pay man? No, man. Dad, what happened when you were- You never even considered it? When you were losing it, did you have, was it just like quick, all right? Or was it like, oh, no? It actually started in my, like, early to mid-20s. Oh, yeah. That's when I just went like, okay, well, I'm just going bald, so I'm going to embrace it. Good for you, man. I mean, he has, his head, it's pretty good for the bald hit. You know what I mean? Like some people, it's all right. Maybe it doesn't work out for it.

Yeah, I don't think it's going to work well for me. I'm a hat guy. You've been wanting to be a bald guy for a while. I just, not wanting, but knowing. We have a mailbag episode today answering a ton of fantasy football questions to help you set yourself up for the draft season. And guys, I know the off-season edition of the Hard Knocks with the Giants recently came out with their first episode. I enjoyed it very much. Tell me the takeaway that you shared with the Foot Clan on the Footcast. Yes. So my number one takeaway was that this is a group of people that I could do this job. That there is no secret. It doesn't seem like there is any sort of extra education that they have gone through. I mean, they've worked in a business. Couple things.

But one, yeah, go ahead. Yeah, I mean, one, this is the Giants. Yeah. So let's not judge that against every other team. That's fair. Two, yes, I was with you. I thought there might be a different way that they would talk about players. And you made this point when we were talking about this earlier. They don't. They talk the same way we talk. It was like, I mean, it might have been an episode of the show where it was like, well, you know, if they don't, they don't keep Barclay. Like Devin Singletary is out there and Joe Mixing is out there.

And Josh Jacobs is out there like, we can find a guy. Yep. And that's how I manage my team. And they broke everything down, talking about the value of what their expected salary will be. If they hit the free market, you had the decision of, okay, well, we're going to let Sequan test free agency. And then you had the director of player personnel. I was like, well, what's the identity of our team then? And you're like, yeah, how are we going to score on offense? It's literally like one of the things they said. So it was, I enjoyed it. It made me very.

hopeful because the thing I want the most is draft footage. I want to be in the war room while decisions are being made. Like, do they, like, when we get to it, is it all, they're just sitting there looking at Malik neighbors? Like, just counting down the draft slots until they're up to the get him. Or is it really a, okay, J.J. McCarthy is here. We could reboot our quarterback or, you know what I mean? Because that will change, I guess, a little bit how you think about players, but it's also just so fun to actually get inside of all that scheming and planning. It was really interesting to watch. It parallels a lot of the way we talk about players and break things down in a subjective, unpredictable sport where you're an expert only so much as...

Nobody knows what's going to happen. Just as much as you guess right. Correct. That's all it is. It's like I think that these teams, they all film the entire process of these drafts and they can't wait for one of the drafts to go perfect and then they'll release the footage. You know, it's like they're waiting for one of these teams to get a perfect draft and then they'll be like, look how it happened. Well, I mean, they're all perfect right now. That's the common and that'll be your situation. But now is why it's really hard to release the tape. Because you could be excited about this player. You don't want it on record. And then like next year you're like, oh, man. We showed how excited we were for this, this bum. Yeah, it's funny because there was just a small clip where they were some guys in the office talking about the Super Bowl. It's who you got. I'm like, oh, who's the dummy? Who's the dummy who got this one wrong? Yeah. Yeah. I mean, because we are quick to find the footage. Yeah. I mean, I just saw, I think it was Colin Coward. They found the clip of him talking about how LeBron, like when Ben Simmons got drafted.

and how like LeBron can go now. Like I didn't feel this way about magic. I didn't feel this way about bird or whoever he said. He goes, Ben Simmons is the future of the NBA and LeBron, you can go away now. That is a take. What do you think? That's a take. Wow. Obviously, thankfully you're listening to this podcast and we have, so far 10 years, we haven't really missed. Yeah, we get it all right. We guess right. And we've never, we've never whiffed. If you get it right every time, is it a guess? Good point. We answer facts. Speaking of which, look, the ultimate draft kit, the draft analyzer available right now, ultimate draft kit.com. If you get the UDK Plus, you can go import your team, get a draft grade, get a breakdown, every position where you're strong, where you're weak. Our favorite players will even tell you which of the three of us your team aligns with more philosophically, which is always funny when we draft teams and then we put it in there and it's like, most of the time it is like.

a team that is reflected. It's like Andy likes your team the most. I'm like, thank goodness. But occasionally it'll be one of the other ones and you're like, that feels weird. I didn't mean to draft a Jason team. We just did the mock and mine was an Andy team. Good job. You're finally making the changes you needed to make. That's probably why it was a B plus. So proud of you. And not a day. Oh, it was just a B. I'm a B plus guy. That's pretty much what my high school stuff was. Like if I got a B plus, that was fine. I mean, you'd be happy with that, right? Yeah.

I'd be happy with that because I didn't do any homework. If you go through life with too high a grade, everyone's looking at you. Too low, can't do nothing. B plus. Aim for the sky. No, it's just under. Not the stars. No, aim for the sky. Quick question from YouTube. Which rookie wide receiver will be the best return on investment this year? And part of this question is because maybe the listeners don't realize this. Malik Neighbors. currently his current average draft position is the highest ever for any rookie wide receiver ever of all time no one has ever been drafted as high as malik neighbors and it doesn't even feel remotely high because which is explain where it is yeah he's he's he's at the 402 right now is the wide receiver 20 that's Malik neighbors and that's like I mean that's left for dead because Marvin Harrison Jr.

is going at the end of the first, the top of the second. He's at the 201 right now as the ninth wide receiver selected. So, I mean, he's obliterating the highest ever drafted rookie. But there's a lot of rookie wide receivers in this draft class. This was supposed to be a really deep class. So it's like, okay, if you don't draft either the highest or the other highest ever drafted rookie, what rookie wide receivers are? worthy of their ADP right now. It's funny because I think Marvin Harrison's a fair answer for this question. I genuinely do. Like I think, I mean, I guess the question is best return on investment. So maybe not. But I think he will return on the investment. It's probably not the best return. He would have to jump up. Like, I mean, he would have to finish. No, you're right. He's being drafted at the wide receiver nine. So for. You're right. You would have to jump up into almost top five. But, but just to lay out where the other ADPs are, Roma Dunezay in the late sixth, Xavier worthy and the seventh.

Ladd-McConkie in the 8, Brian Thomas in the 11th, Kean Coleman in the 9th. Those two are my answer. Brian Thomas and Kean-Colman, they're almost right next to each other, end of the 8th, early 9th. I think both of those players are in contention for me. I like Brian Thomas a ton, and I think Kean-Colman just has it. Kean-Colman has like a Marvin Harrison Jr. light situation going for him. Harrison is being drafted where he's being drafted because... elite quarterback playing Kyler Murray and no one on the depth chart. Buffalo has no one on the depth chart and Josh Allen. And yet Marvin's a second round pick at the top of the second or the late first. Keanu Coleman's a ninth round pick.

So to me, that gives you an opportunity. The opportunity is there for Coleman to get on the field and make a difference. He has not yet capitalized that if you're reading the reports and how he's coming along. There's a lot to learn. We hope he can learn this position or that position. He's going to need to earn his way on the field. My answer for this question is another one where you talk about, oh, it's a Marvin Harrison Light situation. The same thing with Ladd-McConkie. Ladd McConkey finds his way to being the number one wide receiver, I believe, for, you know, a great, you know, Justin Herbert is a fantastic quarterback. So Ladd McConkey is sitting there as the wide receiver 41 in drafts right now. Can you imagine Justin Herbert? I know they're going to run the ball more, but can you imagine Justin Herbert's number one wide receiver? And maybe it's not lad. Maybe Qude Quentin Johnston steps up or maybe Joshua Palmer is.

better than we think. But whoever it is, I can't fathom them being wide receiver 41 or under. The first 14 weeks, and obviously, Keenan Allen is a goat. But the first 14 weeks last year, he was the wide receiver three. It went Tyreek Hill, C.D. Lamb, and then Keenan Allen, and then he got injured. If you drafted an outside wide receiver to the Chargers and it was a pass from the offense, I think we'd be having a different conversation. I mean, Ladd-McConkie being a slot receiver. Like Keenan? Yeah, but that's not a good one for me. Like an all-timer slot-wide receiver comparison with Ladd-McConkey unproven rookie is not a fair comparison. I think what I love. Because we've been here before. We've been here with Wes Welker. Oh my gosh, it's this guy. It's this guy. No, it wasn't. It was none of them in New England. Nobody replaces elite. Julian Edelman did. Not really.

It took time, and it wasn't the same situation. Yeah, the great part about drafting Ladd-McConkie, in my opinion, is that he is awesome. Like, that's he, his film is great. I think he is a talented watcher. And the reports, like, unlike Coleman, they're talking about, he's got a lot to learn. Yeah, they're just different. He's got to pick it up. Lad, they're literally saying he understands the playbook already. He knows it. He's, he's the number one target in most practices that have been open to reporters. And so I, I think he's going to be the one. you know, really early in his career. And you know, me and you, we love Lad coming out. I think the player is going to be better for the team than the production. That's, I don't like to say that. I would love to be back in the bandwagon. I just have a hesitancy. And I hope I'm proven wrong. I get it because, you know, you, you know, Hunter Renfro is a really good wide receiver. And even though he had one, yes. He actually finished as a wide receiver one once, uh, I think the wide receiver 12 a couple years ago. That wasn't.

his normal because the role that Ladd will probably find himself in isn't usually the one that you dominate for fantasy. But you certainly are above the wider Super 41. I think he'll return on his ADP. That seems fair. Mike, what about you? So for me, it's between Ladd and Brian Thomas because I think that they can, they at least have the opportunity to become the number one on their team. Like, where Xavier Worthy. you know, drafted by the Kansas City Chiefs in the first round. If he hits, his ceiling will be higher than those other two guys just because of what he would mean to the Kansas City Chief's offense if they can find their way back to really getting the ball down the field. But Ladd's path is easy. And Brian Thomas, I love, look, Christian Kirk is a great wide receiver. But in terms of talking just actual ceiling if it's hit, Brian Thomas, I...

could take over. I'm not projecting it, so I lean lad for this conversation, but Brian Thomas would be my second pick. Okay, and are you not as, you're not as, you're more hesitant about Keon Coleman? I am. I think, I really think that Curtis Samuel will end up being the number one wide receiver. And, like, and it's, what is, how does Dalton Concade factor into everything? So I, I think that Coleman has a ways to go. All right, we're going to take a quick break and come back with your mailbag questions. Just put a ball on the like rookie wide receiver discussion or maybe extend it momentarily. It is interesting to look back at whether it was Chase, you know, Brandon Cook's, Marty Cooper. Like there haven't been a lot of rookies drafted highly, but there have been mistakes made by the fantasy community and not doing so.

Right. Like the Jamar Chase discussion is a really, really big one, right? High draft capital, you know, question marks around the limited information we have in the offseason. He drops the pass in camp. The world is falling apart. And within about four seconds that the, you know, when the season started, it was like, oh, no, why did he go? Why was he a six round pick and not a first round pick? Marvin Harrison's ADP to me is a direct result of. the fantasy community saying, well, I'm going to learn my lesson on Jamar, but then you keep drafting him higher. And then it's like, well, no, I learned my lesson. I learned it way better than you. So I'm going to take him even earlier. And now Marvin, as confident as I am in him, that ADP is, it's still as scary. Marvin Harrison cannot fail. Marvin Harrison will not fail and cannot fail and can absolutely be a disappointment at his current.

draft cost. Fair. He's going to be a great rookie wide receiver. He's going to be the number one for the Cardinals, and he's very talented. This is not going to be a guy who has a bust of a career. However, I think his line right now on most sports books is about a thousand receiving yards. It's like, I haven't looked in a long time, but like a month ago, it was like a thousand point five was his line. I mean, 1050. Yeah, okay, so it's gone up to 1050. I mean, if he finishes the season with 1050 and you're drafting him.

at the one-two turn. That's a great rookie season, and you're going to be really down on his fantasy production. Yeah, it'll be interesting in Arizona. That puts him at wide receiver 9, by the way, on the draft board. And if you were putting down all your money on one side of wide receiver 9 or the other, I'd put it on the under. You'd put it on the under? Yeah. Even with injury insurance? What do you mean with injury? Oh, I'm just saying you don't get screwed out of your money with injury. It's just. production. Yeah, I'll take the over on 1,000 yards and the under on being a wide receiver 9 or better. I would bet that he'll be better. But it'll be fun to watch. Now, Neighbors is the wide receiver 20, Odunzei, wide receiver 32, and those three guys, I'm going to put them all in the same group. McConkey, Brian Thomas, and Coleman, all have opportunities from the jump. Like all three of those guys from the first week of the season, like I think it's unlikely you end up.

just saying, yeah, that's a eighth round pick in fantasy. Like you probably know something more about them. It's just the gamble or how much time it takes. But rookie wide receivers with opportunity, you see flashes right away. Do you think Adonai Mitchell is interesting too in the late 10th with the opportunity he'll have. You guys are, I think every 15 minutes your watch goes off, you have to say something nice about Anthony Richardson. I just drafted him again. Yeah, I'm sure. Right now. That's been the most popular thing I've seen right now in fantasy is to tweet about how high you think Anthony Richardson will finish. It's like, I can beat you. He's top three. Nah, he's top two. He's number one. He's going to be the number one fantasy guy. Still feel the same confidence with him. Yeah, I'm happy to have him as my sole and only quarterback going into the season.

extremely confident that he will be great for fantasy football. Is there a world real quick on Ladd-McConkie? Is there a world where you think that in two wide receiver sets, he can push Quentin Johnston off the field? I don't think so. Probably not. It's probably going to be Palmer. Right now, it would be in two wide. Well, Chark is there too, so I don't think there's any chance McConkey's getting outside. Okay. And it's a good thing to bring up because you would anticipate that they will have a lot of two-wide receiver sets with the new high-tee methodology coming over. All right. Let's jump into the mailbag. Mailbag. All right. If you have a question for the show, you can go to the website, the fantasy footballers.com. A lot of great off-season articles coming out right now by a newly reinforced writing staff. So a shout out to all the brand new writers on the writing staff. It's like a fresh.

dollar bill like newly minted it's just you get it you're like woof smells like the vault yeah the uh we have our annual path to a wide receiver one series that had it's rolling out highly recommended any of you have the grandparents that always gave you the card with the fresh bills in it i had a great aunt that always gave me a two dollar bill you still have them no ice cream ice cream truck rolled by that's a true story man And the guy he took your money, he didn't say, now, kid, this is a $2 bill that in the future is going to be worth way more than $2. I bought my street. I thought I had other money. I remember this story. And I bought my street this stuff. And I had to grab the $2 bills for my bottom sock drawer. And pay for it. A round of ice cream for the street? And then I went inside and I broke down crying because it was like, what have I done? And I think my parents caught him at the end of the street.

And saved them? And saved them. Aw. Yeah. All right. If you have a question for the show, go to the website to Fantasy Footballers.com, click that submit a question button. Or you can dial our voicemail hotline, 302464 TFFB. Here we go. Yo, what up, Fantasy Footballers? This is Brian from San Diego. My question is, what is your overall opinion of three wide receiver full PPR leagues? Thanks, guys. Love the show. I think it's a great format. So full opinion on leagues where you start three wide receivers and it's full PPR. Draft wide receivers. Yeah, this is the perfect format for a zero RB or a hero RB because you're really with three wide and you probably have at least off flex. You want those things jam packed with as many elite wide receivers as you can get. The reason I love half PPR is because usually when you're, let's say it's.

two wide receiver, two running back, and a flex. The flex is pretty much equal for most situations between a running back and a wide receiver. When you get to like the running back 25, the wide receiver 25 and half PPR, they're near each other. When you switch to full PPR, it's not. It should almost, it should usually be a wide receiver that's going to be in that slot. Now if your roster starts three wide receivers plus that flex, you just load up on wide receivers. Yeah, I mean, I think the format's fine as well. I mean, I've seen some criticism when we've done mock draft episodes that we're not doing like 50 wide receivers and 30 flexes. I would. And drafting with like everybody in the studio live. Like I don't think you guys understand how this show would go if you had nine other individuals having to think about and then make a draft pick.

We have done it with the deucers before. I'm sure we'll do another one with them involved where they're present, where we can badger them into making the pick quickly. Yeah, the problem there is, you know, you don't want to do mock drafts on this show where one person has no idea what they're doing. You know what I mean? And just making the most egregious picks. And so when the deusers come in. I mean, it's just like. That's the problem? That's the problem. I see. You turned it on to them really quick. Yeah, so I did drive that bus. But yeah, I mean, three wide receiver multi. I mean, our main league of record is a double flex league. So if you want an extra position or two in that lineup, you want to kick out the kickers and defenses while you massage that into place. We're all in favor of that. Like, I think that's a more entertaining fun league is to get rid of the kicker position and put it in another flex. Like, that's what we did.

Yeah, I would rather play in a two wide receiver, two running back, two flex, than three wide receiver two running back. Now, there is one unspoken, you know, we haven't mentioned it, one big benefit of the full PPR league. Do you remember? Oh, it's actually a legit one too. Yeah, when you're watching games, anytime your dude catches the ball. Point! Point! Point! Yeah. It's, and you can point while you do it. I recommend it. It's, it is, it is invigorating. Instagram question from Ethan. Would you rather have Kyler Murray or Justin Herbert in a dynasty league? It looks like our dynasty rankings are in the UDK Plus. You can go see them right now. These guys are back to back for myself and I believe Mike. It is not as close for Jason, but that is simply because he has Kyler even higher. I'm on the Kyler side. Jason, you're on the Kyler side. Yeah, I love.

Mobile rushing quarterbacks, and there's very few guys that can rush for 600 yards and pass for 4,000 yards. When those two things happen in the same season, you break fantasy. You know, Kyler is still young. Both these guys are young. Yeah, age is not a factor. They're the same. And so, and both are good quarterbacks. But for fantasy football purposes, I'm going to take the mobile rushing guy. Yeah, yeah. If you had to put money on who has a top three season over the next three years, I think it's on Kyler. Yeah. Just because of the, what would have to happen for Herbert is so outlier that, you know, it's just more likely for Murray. Like, Herbert has to throw 40 plus touchdowns. Yeah. Right? And that, to get into that mix. And Kyler just, he just doesn't have to do that. I mean, obviously, we have seen it with Herbert once before. He was the quarterback two in his sophomore season when he did throw for 38.

touchdowns ran for three more. So over 40 total touchdowns, that's what it's going to take for him to do it. You don't anticipate that happening when you lose Keenan, you lose Mike Williams, and then you go high T run the ball mode. All right, let's jump into another voicemail question here. Wilmington, North Carolina. This is a new partner. Okay. There's a lot to unpack here. Chance from Wilmington. Wilmington, be careful. But, I mean, we're in agreement that that was Casey Kasem. Oh, maybe. This is Casey Casey. Okay. Okay. Yeah, I mean, that was, that was frightening. The tap 40 American hits. Look, I think that this question is actually really well laid out because. Which part? Trading. Trading tank.