Rookie WR Expectations + Trade Respect - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/6

Dell right now is akin to switching to turkey dogs. It's just stupid. It's just not what you want to do. Okay. So Tank Dell right now is the, an average draft price, which is really what you're going to be. It's a great marker for how people are valued right now. Obviously, that's where they're being drafted. Right now, Tank Dell is the third of the three Texans wide receivers. So. You know, if you're trying to shop him around, I don't know that he's going to get the, bring you the hall. I personally think he's going to be the number one target on the Texans this coming season. So I just don't feel like you're trading high. And then switching to turkey dogs. He means number one behind Nico. Yeah. I was just, I mean, in targets. Behind Nico. No. I'm just, I'm just, that's a real turkey dog opinion. Is that our new thing? At least for this question.

turkey dogging is uh i mean that's a phrase to describe doing kind of like not the best thing but like an alternative have you ever had a turkey dog yeah i've had a turkey burger i've had a turkey burger i don't think i've had a turkey burger i don't think i've had a turkey burgering is also oh it's not a good idea akin to the same thing yeah and the reason why it's settling for an inferior alternate it can yeah it can work maybe for your long term help but nothing else yeah i mean look if you put a burger, two burgers right there in front of me. And one of these is a nice ground chuck and the other is a turkey. You're not fooling me. You know what I mean? I'm not going to go ahead. Blindfold away. One bite of each and you will clearly know when you're ending the meal. It's like the Pepsi challenge. Oh, if Jason accidentally didn't pick. Yeah.

It would be impossible. He says impossible. We've got to make this happen. It's a turkey burger. Maybe I'm going to say if it wasn't impossible, he'd be eating turkey burgers. Now, I will have to plug your nose and blindfold you. No, you can't plug the nose. That's part of taste. Now, Brooks is weighing in and he says turkey taco meat is good too. No, it's not. Well, I will say this in his defense. Turkey taco meat is much, it is, you can get closer because I don't know if you. Guys personally cook your taco meat. I do. Usually. It takes, I mean, you don't eat it raw off. That's what I thought we were talking about. No, I'm saying like when you make tacos at home, are you the one? Are you, are the chef? Are you the chef? Because I mean, you take those taco packets, those seasonings. It's one packet per pound.

And when you put that packet on there, you're like, oh, my, Atlanta, there's a lot. Yeah, there's so much seasoning. So it's like, okay, if you're, if you're putting that much seasoning on turkey, you know, gussy it up. Did we settle the questions there? I think we did. Okay. Let's go ahead and go to a YouTube question. When did you decide to use, uh, to draft using your gut? When do you? Oh, goodness. I thought he was making an accusation. Oh, that he's saying, why did you switch to your gut? Um, When do you decide to draft using your gut as opposed to sticking to your rankings? When I'm on the clock. Example that he's giving or that we have here is that like, you know, Hopkins and Brian Thomas are back to back in ranks. Brian Thomas is going to be the more like emotionally satisfying selection for a lot of people, myself included. And it's also what who do you think has the most upside at that point? Upside versus risk.

versus what your team needs. Yeah, you might not need upside. I mean, that's the other part. You might need Hopkins. You might need guaranteed targets and starts. But you, depending on the previous picks in your draft, I start going with my gut when it's obviously close in the rankings and sometimes it's fandom and emotional. Like I would rather root for Brian Thomas Jr. to have a breakout season than I would rather root for Hopkins to hold on to his career for another year. clawing his way to targets. I mean, that's how, I mean, that's how I would look at it. Yeah, I don't know that you would call it your gut. You're not always going to take people based on rankings. We don't do it. I've never gone through a single draft in my life where I just take the highest person in my linear rankings because you're going to look at your team makeup.

if you need, you know. That's a good point. That doesn't make it gut to make a different call than the ranking. Right. You're taking all the logic in. There is a time when I switch to my gut and that's like double digit rounds. That's when I just go like, I like that dude. You know, I'm just like that's where I do that. But for the most part, you just got to bring in as much logic as you can and draft by tiers. That's why we tear guys in the UDK. That way you could you could take a look at all the guys.

They might be in the same tier. That doesn't mean that they have the same style of total fantasy finish. Two guys in the same tier. They could both finish at the exact same, you know, wide receiver number at the end of the year and very different archetypes that fit different rosters. All right. Instagram question from Impatsi says, how long is too long to be waiting on a response to a trade offer that you have sent? Andy has, uh, Andy, why don't you have the floor? Because I know you're struggling with this right now. I have had a trade sent over to another manager in her Dynasty League. Are they listening right now? It's not me, is it? No, it's, Mike's literally checking to make sure it's not him. I am. It's been sitting there for over a week. I had to click the modify button and then I resent it so it would pop up in our chat more recently. How long is too long? Look, there is no answer.

If it's a trade you want to have happened, there's not a too long. You're willing to wait and pay, like I could go in there and negotiate against myself, right? Because that's what you'd be doing. If I go in there and I modify, like I know the person's thinking about it. I know that they've at least accepted. They've acknowledged that. They've been thinking about it. I don't know how they have this kind of patience. I do not have it myself. If I see a trade that I'm thinking about doing, I'm either excited to click that button or I'm shutting it down or I'm at a minimum sending a counter.

None of that has happened. This person is just like, I'm thinking about it. I'm thinking about it. I'm still thinking about it. And I want it to go through. So I'm willing to wait. And if I modify it now, I'm negotiating against myself and just trying to, because then you end up in a bad situation. If I go offer a slight tweak right now to try to push it through, guess who sends over a slight tweak to the tweak? They'll send one back with even more giving on my side. And who would that be? One of the guys in our league. Ah, come on. Name names. You do have to factor in, like, when there are times, unfortunately, in my life where someone asked me a question, I say, I'll think about it. And I'm just, I'm lying to you because I'm not going to think about it. Hmm. I'm going to hopefully think about it later. But then I forget. And you just, so it's more of a, a nice reminder.

I think every couple days. Because also, like, I miss notifications. You're saying you need the reminder. Yes. And like to me, if you go a couple days and then send a reminder, I don't think that's rude at all. Because people's lives are crazy. People's digital lives are crazy. I've gone in to DM somebody and they had set a 24-hour expiring offer. I'm like, oh, shoot, I'm sorry. I wasn't ignoring you. I literally just didn't see this. Yeah, it's totally normal. If I send a trade offer to someone, I'm usually going to poke them as well in a DM and let them know. If I don't hear something for a couple days, I'll hit him up again. Yeah, and you can't, like Brooks has talked about this before he gets annoyed if someone tries to over explain why it's good for them. You don't need to do that. My strategy is keep it light. If I know somebody's teetering, I might send you some fun gifts. I might try to encourage you. Let's have a good time together. You know what I mean? Me, you and this trade. Let's have a party.

I love sending a let's make a deal gift. Yeah. And if you have like a massive fantasy football show, talk up the guys on that show. You know what I mean? Help get that deal done. Yeah. It's a good point. Who should we talk up? Yeah. Who are we talking about baby? I mean, I think we all agree. Tyler Lockett's in for a career. Oh my goodness. What a bounce back. Wow. Can't drop that guy. New money. New money. That's all you're getting, Jay. You know, I would tell you, there's a time in my life I would have told you the details of these trades.

But ever since the great scarring, that transpired when Mike, when I decided to trust in Mike and tell him about Calvin Johnson years ago. Ever since, that was like 15 years ago. You should probably get over it. No, no, no. It's not about getting over it. It's a lesson learned. It's not like, I mean, like if I decide to drive on the train tracks and then a train hits me, like 15 years later, I don't go, you know what, it's time to drive on the tracks again. Yeah, it is. Is it? Yeah, it's been 15 years. No, there's so, not a chance. Those tracks are abandoned, man. There's no train coming down. Yeah, you're fine. Get on them tracks. No chance I'm scared of ghosts. Either of you. Yeah, I'm scared of ghosts. I'm scared of ghost trains. I'm not telling either of you what's going on. Just who's the player you're trying to acquire? And last year I got burned on a trade already. Papa Josh, the bald son of a.

I mean, no, no, I'm not, I want love to tell you. I'd love to have a friend. You want love to, so it's Jordan Love. Good, yes, I'm speaking in code. All right, let's take a break, compose ourselves. I'll check the train tracks out. We'll be back in a second. Also, uh-huh. Don't go on the train. Don't drive on train tracks, people. Do we have the old, uh, no, don't do it. Okay, we have this is the hype train now for those who don't know. This is the hype train and it's just a toy train. But we once had a much louder train. That was awesome. And it was much scarier. And I, and people were really afraid on the road when they listened to this show. And we had to. It's so funny to me though. Not that we would accept responsibility. Like obviously putting like a siren. Yeah. And that's unacceptable. If you're a musician and you put, you know, a police siren in your song, shame on you because that's terrifying every time.

But like if I'm just driving down the road and I hear a train. We're not really a train culture over here, Jay. There's a lot of trains around the United States. But my point is if you're not near tracks, anywhere, anywhere in the country, if you're not near tracks, you shouldn't be afraid that, oh my gosh, there's a train coming in the middle of downtown. I don't think that's how long the thought process works. No, you're just startled. When primal fear. says you need to escape. You're like, well, of course I'm fine. There's no trains around me. All right. Kick off. Kickoff rules. The train out of no one. Falls off of a flat bed next to you. Heck yeah. All right. YouTube question. With the addition of the new kickoff rules, what players that are currently being drafted could realistically see their increases, see an increase in their yearly touchdown totals because of the return TDs, which, you know, the new,

The new kickoff system system is unique. It mimics what the XFL was doing. It's like a hybrid kickoff where the offensive and defensive blockers begin five yards apart at the I think it's like the 40 and the 35 yard line. And you have, you know, you're incentivized at this point to kick to the receiver. to the kick returner instead of going into the end zone. So the return rate in the XFL was 97%. Last year in the NFL was 22%. And you're going to have some of these guys house it for touchdowns. When you get that many opportunities and the methodology for coverage, you might be scoring a few extra special teams touchdowns. But I don't have like a very in-depth list of guys that I know are confirmed.

affirmed going to, you know, like... Well, they're going to try some new people. Yeah. And then Pat Thorman put a list out of some names. Oh, did he? That returned kicks last year that could be relevant. And one of them's a sleeper that I took at the last pick of my draft. Rashid Shahid is an option with the speed. Greg Dorch did it. Marvin Mims did it. Antonio Gibson will probably do it. Damien Pierce did it a little bit, and that was a way to work into the lineup. Marvin Mims and if Tajay Spears keeps returning, which is, that's a big question. Those to me are the two that I think. What about Debo? I mean, I can't imagine. He's going to turn kicks from week 13 on last year, but they probably won't do it again. I don't think they will. I doubt they do. I, you might see. I don't know, man. You might see some rookies also able to, you know, the Malachi Corleys. Why not do it, though?

Well, this is the readjustment of our brains. Now, yes. Like, I feel like of all the teams to do it, San Francisco would be the one to do it before anybody else. It's like your injury risk is not turned up. And you're telling me you want, you know, a different guy returning the kick than Debo Samuel on a play that's not going to get you any more hurt. Yeah. That's the weird logic thing where it's like I, you could see some players. It's going to be incidental. I'm not drafting based off of it. But you could have some of your players incidentally become kick returns. I think that could happen. Yeah, I mean, halfway through the season, you could see Tyreek just like demanding. I want that opportunity. But what does that really equate to, too? You know, let's say the best player does it. Is it two kickoff returns for touchdown? Most fantasy leagues, this is completely irrelevant for. I think by default, even the touchdowns on special teams don't count. And then almost all leagues don't have.

return yardage. Now, if you're in a return yardage league, those those are out there. That matters, yeah. Oh, that would be huge. Marvin Mims might be a player in a league like that. Jalen Hyatt? So, I mean, I'm looking at 2023's kickoff returns on NFL.com. I like the guys who had the most. We're talking the high at 30 and then all the way down through, you know, let's just cut off at 10. And. It's last year, so we do have to readjust. But it's like last year, Marvin Mims had one. Well, yeah, I mean, you haven't had a... I don't think it's going to get out of control. You haven't had, like, four is the record, and there's only two players that have done that, and it was all before 1970. And so then you have a handful of players with three. Josh Cribbs, if you remember him, he was fun to watch. He had three in one season. Otherwise, you're talking about if it's touchdown only, one or two is the difference of the entire season. Mm-hmm.

It'll be fun, though. It will be fun to care about that. I am so excited to go from commercial to something I care about to commercial instead of commercial to kick off through the back of the end zone to commercial. But there are leagues like the Scotty Fishbowl that are really skewed towards those return yardage type of situations, which would be, you know, that'll be exciting. I'm not opposed to adding that as a variable. No, I'm not. Not if these are fun. If these are a fun part of football, I'm not opposed to like. after we see what happens this season. Yes. Yeah. Yeah. I'm just saying like, and you might not have to do a lot. You could super nerf it. It could be a quarter of what like a normal situation is, but at least it's something. There's a little bonus for plays that make a difference. Yeah, I don't want. Yeah, I don't want Rashid Jihad to become the wide receiver one in fantasy. But if you gave him a little bit of a boost, that'd be cool. Speaking of things, do you look at them for drafts? Do you guys remember when Antonio Brown?

was the returner and the best wide receiver in the league. Though, if you, if you had a return yardage league, it was like, it was over if you had Anthony. That's true. And the, uh, believe you are the most kicks to, uh, kicks to face. I was going to say that might have been where it started to turn for him when he kicked, uh, Cleveland's kicker in the head. That was awesome. I mean. objectively awesome. Quite the reaction, you know. It's not premeditated. You didn't know you're going to, but your first thought was like, I'm going to jump and kick you. No, I think he was trying to hurt all the guy. His first thought was, I'm going to jump over this guy. And the second thought was, I'm not going to make it. So what do I do? And instead of like a tuck protect, it was. It was just a jump stick. It's like a bicycle kick to the face.

All right. Do you consider buy weeks? We have an Instagram question about it. Would you fade a pick if they share a buy week with other players on your team? No. In best ball, I will because you're not going to make transactions. I'll look. If I think I'm grabbing two quarterbacks, I'm obviously not going to grab both of them with the same buy week. But in redraft in my home leagues, I don't even truly use it as a tiebreaker. Grant in Alabama with our final question here, and we may have some debate on it. But without Jason Kelsey, is the reason to worry about Jalen Hertz?

I want to say no. I really want to say no. I'm excited about Jalen Hertz season because I think that their offensive coordinator shift that they tried last year was not good enough. They have an extremely talented roster. Devante Smith, A.J. Brown might be the two best wide receiver combos in the league. And they started last year on fire. A.J. Brown was amazing. Jailen Hertz was amazing. The Eagles were nearly undefeated. I think they had one loss going into the buy week in week nine. And then the NFL figured them out. They didn't have pre-stamped motion. They were just such a predictable vanilla offense that, you know, then they got shut down, lost most of the games, straight into the playoffs, you know, won and done in the playoffs. So I am excited to see the Kell and Moore offense with the talent here. But there are. But I mean, that Jason Kelsey thinks specifically, Tush push implications. It's Kelsey plus Barkley that scares me.

because if the tush push gets a little bit worse, which we won't know for sure until they try it out. But if it gets a little bit worse and you've got another really good option with Barclay, you start converting some of those. It's going to make a huge impact. I mean, this is a guy who had 15 rushing touchdowns because of the tush push. It's also, it's not just the tush push. I'll start with concerned no, but it. It is a conversation. Like, it's not something that should just be completely thrown away. Ah, don't worry about it. We have seen offensive lines improve dramatically, like overnight because they add a true superstar at the center position. It's a really important position to the offensive line, helping out quarterbacks, identifying things. You know.

calling out blitzes, like helping the quarterback with protections and everything like that. So it does matter. But it's not going to change the way I think about Jalen Hertz. But sure, come six weeks into the season. And you could be going, well, man, that Jason Kelsey impact was more than we factored in. They do have a good line of succession in place, though. I am not a Kellynmore truther that believes that he's impervious and going to represent a great improvement on the offense. We also saw the first time ever where like Jalen Hertz since his run the year before, he showed some weakness over the back half of the year. His passer rating dropped from 99 to 75 over the back half of the year. His performance was not great. We just saw some more stats from Warren Sharp about some.

potential issues with third down completion percentage being his fault on misses there you go so yeah i mean you should always i think it's always a good thing in fantasy because i mean you've got to do this with the homes right you got to do this with the best of the best you don't just go in blind thinking every season is going to be the same as the one before um players have fluctuation in their performances coordinators coaches offensive line injuries all of this stuff. You need to go in with a fresh look, but of all the players that you could still bank on at the quarterback position, it's impossible not to put Hertz at the tippy top of that list because of the track record, the weapons, and the fact that he's proven it over so much time and is a rushing quarterback, which is a more predictable way of scoring fantasy points. So, you know, Lamar is a good example.

Like if you just compare Jalen Hurst to Lamar Jackson, you've had some years where you're disappointed. You've had some games where you're disappointed. Yet every single time you go into a game, you know he could win you the week, and you know that him, the player, is one of the best in the league. And yes, like Lamar's lost weapons on the outside. Lamar's dealt with injuries to his favorite weapons, offensive line issues. So, yeah, it's going to be a very, very interesting season for Philly. Because the cruise control they were on, it finally ended. It was literally like, what, a year and a half of cruise control where like every game, they just manhandle you. Yeah. Sorry, I was looking at Slack of Juergens lotion. Of what? Cam Juergens is going to slide to center to replace Kelsey. And so Mike is posting pictures of Juergens ultra healing.

extra dry skin moisturizer. So this is how my brain works. I just talked about it on the footcats. There is nothing quite like going through somewhat of a... Just like a long oral argument about something and then like looking to your two buddies. Yeah. To see their thoughts and they look at you with glazed glassy eyes. We weren't listening to. And they are staring at a bottle of Jergens ultra healing ultra dry skin. I had nothing to add. You nailed it. I mean, wow. Yeah. Thanks. Yeah. Thanks. It's such a great job. All right. That'll do it. Hopefully you had a wonderful holiday. Enjoyed the Saturday episode.

Shout out to Cam Juergens. We'll be back on Tuesday with some divisional breakdown. That man needs a sponsorship. Goodbye. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on join thefoot.com. And follow us on Twitter at the FF ballers.