The TRUTH: Top 10 Fantasy RBs + Yeti Shoes - Fantasy Football Podcast for 1/26

Hey, Foot Clan, we got a great show for you today. Getting into the truth of the running back position, how consistent were these guys, did they make a difference? Were they worthy of those top-in draft picks in your draft? We dig into all of that today. Don't miss a minute. Make sure you like, subscribe. Leave a comment. Hey, this is Austin Eccler, and you're listening to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast. To the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your host, Andy Holloway. Jason Moore and Mike Wright. Welcome in Thursday, January 26th, the fantasy footballer's podcast. Jason Moore is here. I am. We have a large cardboard imitation of Mike the fantasy hitman. We do. I stand in. I'm Andy Holloway. Welcome into the show. We're talking truth.

The running back position starting to go through those players today. There's no fluff here, and some of the truth isn't very kind. Okay. Yeah, you're excited to talk about it? Yeah, there's a couple players specifically that I think diving a little deeper on might reveal some things. And we'll look at overall trends at the running back position as well, what we're seeing in fantasy football. These episodes will key you in on to the real difference that some of these draft picks made for your roster. or the difference they didn't make compared to expectations. So stay tuned for that. You can find us on Twitter at the FF Ballers. I don't know if you're into the TikTok, but we're over there. I hear we're over there. I'll be honest. Yeah. They don't let me in. Well, they put you there, but you don't put you there.

Right. Other people that are younger put me there. That's by law. Uh-huh. You are not allowed to participate in the platform directly. That's right. That's right. And then we're on Instagram, where I am on Instagram. Instagram.com slash fantasy footballers and YouTube.com slash the fantasy footballers to watch the show. So let's start with a quick question. Are you prepared, Mr. Moore? I'm always prepared, Mr. Holloway. This is going to be a good one. Dynasty, quick question from Peter in Rhode Island. Should I trade D.K. Metcalf for the 101 rookie pick? I have pretty good young wide receivers. I could use some help at the running back position. Obviously, I would be taking Bijan in that scenario. This is a dynasty full PPR league. I will stay silent.

I will let you reply and then I will share my opinion. I am very curious your opinion. I think we might differ here. I would be clearly on the side in this specific situation of the 101. I would rather have the 101 than D.K. Metcalfe. And there's a philosophical argument here, which I am usually on the other side of, of the known proven commodity versus the hopeful unproven upside, but that has far more risk, right? There is no risk to having D.K. Metcalf. The risk to having D.K. Metcalf is that he's just too big and strong and talented. Like, we already know he's great. We know he's going to be, you know, the last couple of years of his career, the wide receiver seven, the wide receiver 12, those were both with Russell Wilson. We thought it would go way down. He was still the wide receiver 18 with Gino.

He was dominant in his own right. So you know that D.K. McCaff is a valuable fantasy asset. As much love and hope and hype as there is for Bejohn Robinson, there is a world where he isn't good, where Nikiel Harry, who was the 101 dynasty rookie pick, just doesn't work out. All that being said, Bijon is different in the sense that... you know, even that year with Nikiel Harry, the year with Bishop Sanky, we knew that those were like questionable years. Bijan is going to have draft capital. It has incredible talent. And the way that I look at it specifically is if Bejon does not turn out to be great, to be the greatest thing since slice bread, then what he's going to be is a running back two that still has good value.

And I think going forward, D.K. Metcalf is probably a very high-end wide receiver two. Maybe a low-end wide receiver one without Russell Wilson and going forward. You know, he was the wide receiver 18. But there is a world where Bijan is the running back one is a top three guy. And no matter what, you know he's got, what is it? four-year age gap. I think it's 21. Bijan just turned 21 and DK Metcalfe is 25. So when I lay all these things out, I think that the reward is worth the risk to take the 101 in Bejan Robinson. Okay. Now, where were you before I spoke and did I change anything? Because I assume you were on the Metcalf side. Yeah, I am on the Metcalf side. And you didn't change anything for me. You fool! You fool! Yeah, I mean, you pointed it out the risks. I mean, it's not just...

you've got later around running back situation Sonny Michelle Rashad Penny that didn't work out the way people hope. You also have top in running backs that didn't work out the way you hope. Trent Richardson is an example of that. Is the probability that he becomes one of those? No. Don't know where he's going. We set on the footcast today. It could be a year or two depending on the destination until he starts performing. You obviously run an injury risk at that position. And D.K. Metcalf, I think his ceiling is top five. I mean, D.K. Metcalfe is. That level, if he puts up a 12 to 15 touchdown season combined with what he does in the total receptions is, I mean, career high last year, right? I mean, 90 receptions, 140 plus targets with Gino Smith. I think that you're talking about what your team need is. If you are really deep and you want to take a shot at the upside that Jason is talking about, I'm not going to blame you. This is not a situation where I'm like, oh my gosh, you're making a foolish mistake. It's exciting to draft the new.

hotness. Yeah, it's a lot of fun. But I, but I don't think you have to. I mean, I think DK Metcalf is a proven commodity. Bejan is not. Well, yeah, certainly. I am curious. We don't usually go to dozer's alley on things like this because we have no respect for them. But I, I am a little curious the opinions of the people there because I know Brooks has a pretty strong philosophy when it comes to how he does dynasty. You know, Kyle, Al, which side would you take in that? Kyle? What's funny is Jeremy and I actually have D.K. Metcalfe. We traded him to Brooks, and we'd much rather have the 101 on our team, in my opinion. Okay. You traded D.K. McCaff away, though? Yeah, we traded him to Brooks. So it's kind of funny. All of us have had this situation. Oh, I see. Yeah. And Brooks, which side would you be on? Sticking it with D.C. Yeah, I figured. Yeah. Interesting. Yeah. I mean, it's a.

It's a tough one. Let me ask you this. Would you trade D.K. Madcap for Brees Hall? Absolutely. I would rather have Brees Hall. You would? Yeah. And that's based on what? Just that's based on the fact that I believe Brees Hall is a top five dynasty rookie running back or dynasty running back going forward. This is the hardest debate to have because you have both those guys. Yeah. You have Brees Hall and you have the number one pick for Bijon where it's like. I'm kind of using the point of like, obviously the injury was devastating for Briseau. He was showing out, looked like he was on his way. And at that moment in time, maybe you would have rather had that. But there's just a lot of variables in that picture. And there's a lot of situations where, you know, who would you rather have? D.K. Mecca for Jemante Williams.

D.K. Metcalf. Okay. So that's one where that would not have been the answer. Oh, for sure. Last year, I mean, it would have been clearly Giovante, but the injury and the specific injury he has is that carries a lot of extra risk. So you can't just say, well, he's a couple years younger and he's a talented running back. We don't know how he's going to come back from that injury and how long it'll take a la, you know, J.K. Dobbins. I choose to believe that you simply are. optimistic. You like looking at the rookies and what they could provide for that high end upside versus looking at it from a perspective of what you might be missing, the Royce Freeman's of the world. So a lot of it for me came to taking a 30,000 foot view of the dynasty. That's way too high. A 20,000 foot view. 10.

So I'm in like a little like an open seat plane. Yeah, you can breathe. A little prop plane. Okay. All right. Well, so I was in a prop plane. I'm looking down at the rookie dynasty running backs or not just rookies, but dynasty running back position and thinking, okay, how does the top, because we got, we got, we got Zeke, we got Dalvin Cook, we've got Derek Henry, we've got even Austin Echler. We've got these great running backs who are, you know, for dynasty purposes, they're starting to age out. And I was like, okay, well, what is the future? How does dynasty football look in the next three or four years?

And if you say, okay, where does Bijon Robinson slot in right now amongst dynasty rookies or dynasty running backs? Is he not a top five guy right now? Well, maybe. I don't know. What about Najee Harris? He's another example of somebody heralded high expectations. D.K. McCaff for Najee Harris right now. I think that's a very fair comp. I see those two guys very similarly. That would be a position-based thing. the longevity would be on Metcalf's side. So in a vacuum, I would probably take Metcalf. But if I needed, you know, this specific person, Peter in Rhode Island was saying he had good young wide receivers. It changes the equation. Wanted to look at running backs. That would be fair. Yeah. No, it makes sense. These are the offseason discussions that we're going to have. I mean, there are, when I think a dynasty running backs, you can start asking questions about players like Ramandre Stevenson, 24 years old, already at top 12.

running back, which we're getting into the truth at that position, so I'm sure more debates will come up. In the next couple weeks, we are internally as we work on the Dynasty Pass for the ultimate draft kit coming up. We're launching that on Super Bowl Sunday, and the Dynasty Pass, the first version of that will be up on Super Bowl Sunday, including Dynasty rankings. And I think as we workshop around the studio here and dive deep into our Dynasty rookie rankings, There's going to be a really telling change going from the old guard to the young guard at the top of our rankings. That's my current projection, having not sat down and actually hammered that out yet. Yeah, I think it's, Brooks, you said you're a coward with the rookies sometimes. Oh, yeah, definitely. I got burned.

a couple rookie drafts in a row, and then I've been trading them ever since. Yeah, I know. And I think, I think it's easier for me to be less cowardly about rookies once the draft takes place. Pre-draft? Yes. It's far more difficult for me to, uh, to see those situations. And because you know, every year you're going to have some percentage of them that will be bust. They will, they will, they will be, you know, maybe not just in Blackman or, uh, what was the other John Ross I mean you know maybe not that level but it's going to happen I mean you're going to have players that that are better than you expected or worse or we went back I don't know if it was you Kyle I think we're we're building out the dynasty pass right now which by the way everybody out there the ultimate draft kit pre-seal always starts on Super Bowl Sunday and if you

pre-order it then you get instant access to the dynasty pass which you know the team is hard at work at building that out i went back to last years dynasty pass first mock draft so there's multiple mock drafts there's multiple releases of the dynasty pass research for you to analyze as you begin to make these decisions for your draft It was a different group. Isaiah Spiller was very, very high in that list. This is the mock draft before the NFL draft. Before the NFL draft. That changes everything. And that's my point is that right now, if that statement is true, it changes everything. Then making those trades for draft picks now where you know the draft changes everything is a risky business, not for the faint of heart. Maybe you need to get up at 20,000 feet, 30,000 feet, put the mask on.

to make those calls and it'll be fun i and i say as we go through this episode we're going to be talking about the 22 top 10 fantasy finishers at running back we should add a little dynasty outlook to them because i i think we'll see these are the best the best and we're like what is their future multiple years look like then let's do that right now you want answers i think i'm entitled you want answers i want the truth you can't handle the truth Once again, I get to watch the truth graphic. Your favorite graph. My favorite, because it's definitely not super lazy. Because, I mean, I am wearing some sort of wig. Right. In my normal clothing in this courtroom. Right. And you, he dressed you up in this drop with nothing. Nothing at all. But you have a wig. I have a wig. Just superimposed on top. Yeah. You don't have a suit on or anything.

No, and neither of us are on the stand, and one of us is a judge. All right. Top 10 running backs from 2022, episode one for the running back position. High level, the running back scoring was down as a whole in 2022. Fewest running back receiving yards league wide since 2012, which when I hear that, the first thing I think about is the... How relevant a player like Jamal Williams was this year, where this is not your prototypical. This is a touchdown dependent, touchdown only type of player, very relevant, fewest receiving yards since 2012. The second one here, fewest running back receiving touchdown since 2016. And that's a while ago. And what's funny is you would assume.

We went through the truth of the quarterbacks. If you haven't heard that, you can go back and listen. And the quarterback scoring was down. And the quarterback passing touchdowns were down. So you'd be like, oh, okay, so more rushing touchdowns were, nope, there just was a down year for scoring. Yeah, which, you know, if everybody is, you know, lower, if the water level is lower as a whole, I think maybe we have a bunch of disappointed fancy players. It's possible. But yeah, but everyone's feeling it, right? It's not like they're just disappointed and then there's somebody else, you know, there were breakout players, but maybe there was some disappointment at the running back position in general this year. Austin Eccler is the RB1 and he has the lowest points per game. The RB1 finished. Yeah, explain this to me because I think I missed. He finished as the running back won this year with 19.1 fantasy points per game.

Over the last seven years, 23 running backs have scored more than 19.1 fantasy points per game. So it shows you kind of how... It's almost three per year that finish higher than the number one number for this year. Exactly right. And I think this is part of why we saw a lot of people have success with zero RB this year. And you're going to see that happened to pile into next year more because of what happened this year. But overall, over the last decade, running back scoring has actually been trending up. And you might think, well, that's surprising since it's a passing game. But that's actually why, because the receiving work of running backs has been going up and up in the NFL, except this year. This year it didn't really. And so I would just caution people to not see what happened this year as a trend. It seems more like the outlier when looking at it from about 15,000 feet.

Right, a little bit higher. Little higher, not too high. Still in the prop plane. Yeah, you can't see as well. You can't see as well. You can't see as well from there, though, right? No, I can't see anything. I've got big, thick glasses. My eyesight's not great. Jonathan Taylor, Giovante Williams-Bries Hall, those were the three major injuries of the running back position. They stayed relatively healthy this year, including Mr. Christian McCaffrey. Among the top 10 fantasy finishers, they miss one game combined due to injury. That is. One of the most unbelievable stats, you know, you look back last year of the top 20 running backs. There were only five guys that played 17 games. That means the top 10 guys, total, all of them combined, one missed game to injury. I think there was Derek Henry was sat for one game. But like this was just a healthy year. So bizarre to have downscoring. All right. So let's get into the truth data. We've been talking about.

These thresholds that we are looking at, great games, more than 21 points at the running back position. Good games, more than 11 points. Bust games, fewer than 7 points. This is in half PPR scoring. Yeah, and you were pulling your hair out if you got one of those bus games that, you know, you draft a, you spend a high draft capital pick on running backs and you make that investment. And if you don't get what you're expecting, let's put it this way. As we start talking about the number one guy, which is Austin Echler. The reactions are strong and they're strong very quickly. And if you look at how the season started, that's what you got. Austin Echler ended up, number one. Number three in consistency, so a good number there. And yet after three weeks, he had finished 28th and 29th in two of the three games. And they were in matchups that you thought were very exploitable. We were worried. I can tell you firsthand as someone that had both Austin Echler and Derek Henry, the first few weeks of this season.

were terrifying. You thought it was, it was done, you know, he wasn't playing as many snaps, didn't have good, strong fantasy finishes, and, you know, obviously turned things around and became one of the most consistent running backs. The entire rest of the season was great through the fantasy playoffs. I mean, scored, hey, everybody, touchdown regression alert for Austin Echler last year. Didn't happen. Had another 18. Yeah. I mean, but. We're going to, you know, it's going to be said the same thing. Like, you can't get 18 touchdowns three years in a row, right? That's just too many for a 200-pound guy. Well, there will be question marks. I mean, 107 receptions last year with Keenan Allen missing games with Mike Williams missing games and a new offensive coordinator. You don't think people are going to talk about or doubt Austin Echler after the seemingly underutilization of him at times this year?

Well, one thing that was telling when watching the games, you brought this up a lot through the season, I did as well. It seems like they want to give him more rest. They really don't want to overwork him. But the gap between him to the next player on the team was so monumental. It's like when you take him out of the game, you're killing a drive. So there have been, I think, the latest mock draft that came out today had Bijon Robinson going here to the Chargers. I do think that this team. needs to go out and get another running back, both for the future and for the present to give a one-two punch here. So it was a great year for Austin Echler overall. Still wish they used them more in the playoff game. Maybe they would have held on to win. But 71% good games, 29% great, only 6% bust. So other than a bumpy first three games where he had two sub-10-point performances,

You were on cruise control with Austin Eccler from that point forward, even in a couple of games where he was like, you know, you were a little worried about him being banged up and not being used enough, and then he would just find himself into the end zone. He is a true fantasy football player. If you're unaware, he's been on our show multiple times, has his own fantasy football show. He cares. And I, look, he doesn't get to make the coaching decisions. And everybody wants to score a touchdown when they've got it. But I feel like when he's got the ball, he's like, he knows. He's like, I've got to do. If I don't get in, someone else can get in, get those points away from me on my team. And he doesn't want to let the people down. He hasn't. And he's not going to next year either. Austin Echler has another great season next year because the red zone work that he gets.

Back to back years, he's led all running backs in red zone touches tied with Jamal Williams. He has more red zone touchdowns the last two years than Derek Henry and Nick Chubb combined who are seen as like the red zone, you know, running back touchdown machines. And he catches passes. So even if they bring someone else in, I'm going to be all in on Austin Eckler next year. There will be touchdown regression. But when you catch as many passes and you're as involved as he is in the red zone, enough set. I imagine you're taking this next gentleman ahead of Austin Echler, only eight rushing touchdowns this year, but 108 targets, five receiving Christian McCaffrey at number two in the finish, but number one inconsistency. Yeah, I mean, he was absolutely fantastic. You know, his, he had, uh,

Really one bad game because one of the games came when he was traded to the San Francisco 49ers and only played like 24% of the snaps. He was unbelievable. That being said, this is the truth episode. We're going to, we got to deal with hard truths because he was absolutely great. And yeah, he'll probably be the number one pick next year. But there's some data I want to bring up. And I don't know if you know, because when I watch these games, I just, I keep seeing like, man, Elijah Mitchell's really involved. Is there something to that? And I went back to the game logs taking out the first game where he played like 20% of the snaps. He played four games with Elijah Mitchell, six games without Elijah Mitchell. These are how many fancy points he scored. With Elijah Mitchell, 15.7, 14.1, 6.9, 15.4.

Pretty good. You're happy. That's an average, though, of 13 fantasy points per game. And in those games, he played 60% of the snaps. But without him, 36.3, 24.6, 28.3, 22.8, 12.8 and 28.8, averaging 25.6 fantasy points per game and playing over 80% of the snaps. Now, I presume we all assume that Elijah Mitchell won't be playing 17 games next year because that's kind of his thing. But does that worry you that you're not, you know, the superstar, 25.6 fantasy points per game from Christian McCaffrey without Elijah Mitchell is not what we got in the games where Elijah Mitchell was playing and had a couple touchdowns vultured away. I think it's interesting. I think it's something we're thinking about. I think I think the data set might be.

not large enough to put doubt in my mind considering management of injuries that we heard throughout a lot of that term, including even this most recent playoff game where you've got a calf injury. How many weeks has you been dealing with some of these things? So I think we know a little bit, right? We know that Kyle Shanahan and this team, they're Super Bowl-bound. They have a big picture view. About 18,000 to 19,000-foot view of this season. And they're aiming for a title. So Shanhan's always been willing to use multiple backs. I think Elijah Mitch is a really good player. That's the problem. But you will. Because when he wasn't there, the next guy wasn't good enough to say, okay, you get on the field. And other NFL coaches, maybe take this as a, like look how good Kyle Shanahan is done and take this as a sign. If there's a huge gap from your number one to your number two, don't force your number two. Just keep.

You know what I mean? Like put Austin Eckler on the field 80%. I don't, yeah. I mean, are you saying that that's enough information that you would actually change where he would go in a draft? Or is just something to be aware of because maybe the ceiling that you imagine is better in San Francisco isn't really better than it was in Carolina? It's probably the latter there. It's one of those situations where who else is up for the number one spot? Who else is in that conversation? Is Jonathan Taylor right back in that conversation? He's in that conversation. You know, you're not going to take Derek Henry ahead of them. Maybe Austin Echler, but depending on if they add another running back. There's not too many names there. Yeah, no, there's really not. I mean, it seems like it's Christian McCaffrey by default. Yeah, it kind of feels that way. People were scared. I have Christian McCaffrey coming into the year. Ends up with 88% good games. Like you said, maybe one bad game, 35% great, which was a higher number than Austin Echler.

higher percentage of good games than Austin Echler. You know, when he plays football, he's Christian McCaffrey. I mean, this is the pinnacle of the offensive minds in the game, San Francisco, they went out and got this guy, that when you didn't think it was possible to go get a player of this caliber, I started thinking about just their progression through this season. Where would they be if they didn't do this trip? How different. would the NFL landscape right now look if Buffalo was the team that got him because they were in the mix too. If Buffalo added Christian McCaffrey, are they right now playing at a neutral site? I don't know. No, but that's kind of what I was thinking about. It's like Elijah Mitchell, he's back now, but he wasn't back. You know, what's the landscape look like? It would be. So for dynasty purposes, is Christian McCaffrey, you're 101? Yes. At least as a running back, not 101 because I would.