AFC West Breakdown + Buy or Sell, Big Kid Parties - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/15

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This is Patrick Mahomes, quarterback to the Kansas City Chiefs, and you're listening to the Fantasy Footballers podcast. To the Fantasy Footballers podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Welcome in. Oh, we've got a great show. Thursday, July 15th. The NFL season inches closer by the day. Mike Wright is here, Jason Moore. I'm Andy Holloway.

Are we talking about the AFC East today? No. We already did that, Mike. Oh, man. Don't have to do that again. We are talking about the AFC West. Oh, yeah. That's much better. More exciting. For fantasy. Look, if you're a fan of an AFC East team, that's fine. Yeah. This is just more fantasy football impact today on the show. A little bit more intrigue in terms of...

teams that will compete in the division. I think we know the chiefs are going to do it, but Vegas is being pretty generous with the other three teams in this division. At least two of them. I mean, maybe I haven't seen the Vegas line, so I don't know maybe they're being generous. But I think there are two other good teams in this division. I did see the Vegas lines. And that's why I said that. Oh, they are being generous. Yeah, well, we'll see. We'll see what you think. Another jam-pack show, though, we're right in the middle of our divisional breakdowns.

This is show four. We're wrapping up the AFC today, right, Brooks? That's right. All done with the AFC after today's divisional breakdown in the AFC West. Have some NFL news to talk about. A couple things at the top of the show I want to let people know about. First of all, we do have a winner slash loser for Mike's official autographed glamour shot. Big winner, big time. And you did autograph that, right? Biggest prize, yes, biggest prize that this show has ever.

given away by just physical size right which is not value now al borland has to figure out how to ship it yeah good luck which is uh he's going to spend the next few days doing but luke kotch luke kotch congratulations slash i'm sorry you've won mike's glamour shot autographed please if you are so inclined send us a picture of where you hang that thing also hang it somewhere very public yeah oh yeah i recommend the restroom

We do have, that would be great. That would be hilarious. If Mike is just staring at you in there as you do your business. Yeah, that's great. We have awesome for them, not for me. We do have another giveaway right now. So we, we do this throughout the year. We are giving away a signed Antonio Gibson mini helmet. That's nice.

That is a nice one to win. And you can find it at footclang giveaway.com. There are a few ways to enter over there. Completely free. Yes, completely free giveaway. Footclan giveaway.com. If you want to go check that out, we'll be giving away a lot of great stuff over the course of the season. And if you want to see that glamour shot, it was the June 24th episode. Is that right, Brooks? Yep. Go check it out on YouTube. If you want.

Yeah. Twitter at the FF ballers, Instagram.com slash fantasy footballers and the communities join the foot.com. Let's do some buy sell. Buy or sell presented by pristine auction. Buy or sell three quarterbacks throwing for 40 plus touchdowns in 2021. 17 game season. That would be 2.4 touchdowns per game. That's a high bar. Last year we had three quarterbacks, Rogers, Wilson, Brady.

That's crazy that we had three. Yeah, because since 2000, there have only been 13 total seasons. So last year was a lot. And then Mahomes was pacing out for that as well. Now, to be fair to the buyer's sell, coming up this next season, there are 17 games. And if you want to include people who got to be fair to the buyer's sell. But my point here. To repeat what Andy said two seconds ago.

My point here is that there are an additional 12 players who actually would have been a 40 touchdown throwing quarterback. One more game? With one more game. That's right. So basically 37, just slightly over 37 touchdowns thrown in 16 games. So, yeah, so it basically doubles the amount of players who over the last, you know, 20 years would have. Wait, did you say 12 additional players? That is correct.

Wow. Since 2000. Oh, okay. So much more since now. I thought you meant last year there were 12 right on the precipice. Everybody was throwing touchdowns last year. Yeah, so there would be 25 in the last 20. It still wouldn't be, the math wouldn't check out for that to be what you would expect. Not for the buyer's sale of three doing it again. I went and I looked at my stats to see.

how many players I put over that threshold, and I have to sell this. Oh, how many do you have? I actually have zero.

Wow. However, that's not a lot. That is not necessarily, you know, I wouldn't bet the zero were to get there. When I'm statting these players out, I'm conservative in their range of outcomes on, you know, every player, every position. But I do think two players have a very good chance. Like, you know, when you look at Mahomes, when you look at Brady, I think those two are.

You know, they should be able to throw for 40 if they have a great season. I'm buying this. Who is your third? Right now. Right now I have Mahomes, Rogers Brady. But I believe with the 17 game season, the way these, you know, DAC is coming back this year. He's a candidate for 40. Wilson did it last year. Josh Allen got close. So I think I will buy this one. Yeah. I'm an easy sell.

I have currently one projected quarterback to pass the 40 touchdown mark. And the hard part about gauging it from last year, last year was insane. The scoring was off of the charts, which was one of those things. Historically, you could have seen a coming where generally when the offseason is shortened and teams don't have a full training camp, defenses suffer tremendously. You saw it with the lockout.

before, whatever, seven years ago or whatever, you had a huge offensive output that year. COVID hits. There's really no training camp, or there's limited, I should say, huge offensive output for 2020. So I'm going to sell and say that things regressed to the mean in terms of total passing touchdowns across the league. And even with the being fair, of course, Jason, being fair to the buyer's sell. Right. We need to care about the buyer's sale. Because there is one extra game.

in 2021. I'm going to sell. Okay. Brooks, we should keep track of this one. This would be a fun one to return to at the end of the year and just see how it turns out because, man, you're right. I mean, last year was an anomaly. It was wild. And I can promise you, DAC would have hit that number last year. Oh, yeah. So it would have been more than three, which would have been kind of wild. But that was buyer sale, brought to you by pristine auction. Pristineauction.com. Use our code ballers. And they'll give you 10 bucks.

And you can buy a sweet piece of gear like the Antonio Gibson helmet we're giving away. All right, let's get into the news. News and notes from around the league presented my sleeper. ESPN reporting Damien Harris, the surefire number one. Here we go again. In the backfield in New England. Here we go. Drumbeat has been getting louder for Damien Harris. Yes. But haven't we all already assumed he's the clear cut running back one for the team? We have.

Sure, but I guess my point is, does it matter? Yes. Does it matter if he's the clear cut running back one? I get what Jason's saying. And the answer is kind of no, because we all assume that. And you're not saying something, like nobody's saying James White looks to be the clear cut pass catching running back for the new. Yeah, of course. Like being the number one running back.

in New England is step one of like three things you have to do to have any relevance. Cam Newton being your quarterback scoring 12 times last year. That's a problem. Not playing on third down and getting the ball thrown to you. That's a problem. I like Damien Harris. I'm not, it's not a 0% chance he has a breakout season. Like there's a, he is somebody that you could absolutely have in the breakout category. Give him enough carries. Sure. Things go the right way. Touchdown wise. He's at eight, right? He gets to seven or eight.

and you've stolen him late in the draft in the eighth round. That's why it matters. It matters right now because if you're doing a draft, if you're doing basketball and those types of things, Damien Harris is not a fourth round pick. He's not in that area where you're the known, the really good running backs, they're gone. And so you're grabbing at players where I think they're the starting running back, but you're investing such a high draft pick that.

If you're wrong, you just passed on an outrageously good wide receiver in that range. But right now, he's in an area where this is fantastic. RB 33. Like, that's wild to me. A guy who last year, there are only 32 NFL teams. Right. Just for context. Yes, thank you. Exactly. So last year in his games, that would have put him on a 17-gay pace of nearly 233 attempts.

I mean, his 1100 rushing yard pace, maybe that hits, maybe that doesn't. But opportunities for a running back going that late, yes, I am extremely interested. Stories like this will drive the ADP up closer to the year. That's the bigger question is where does he end up by August? But even still, I don't see him getting up past the sixth round, at which point in the sixth, starting running back, very interested. All right, our next bit of hype.

I do buy, I have bought all offseason, and I find to be maybe the best actual value at the running back position. We're talking about David Montgomery, who ended last year on fire. Matt Nagy came out and said he wants 20 rushing attempts per game for David Montgomery. Will he get it? Who knows? Last year, in that electric season, 16.5, bad offensive line that's improving.

He averaged 19.3 during a six-game stretch during, you know, that run. But I think David Montgomery is and, more importantly, will be undervalued in August, in drafts. Right now the RB19, I think he's a steal. I really do. He may end up a my guy. Oh, gross. He might end up a my guy because nobody wants, Mike just said, oh, gross. Yeah, exactly. Which means that this is why I say his value will remain there.