AFC West Breakdown + Buy or Sell, Big Kid Parties - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/15

That's what's so great. I think that's the narrative I think is wrong. It is. I'm agreeing with you, but I'm giving you the voice of public opinion without Jason's stupid voice. Yeah, it's not. But my. They're not replacing much. That's my point. That Sammy Watkins was 37 catches last year, right? 400 yards. So out of that large pie, he really wasn't much of anything. So like they don't need.

to prioritize McCle Hardman or DeMarcus Robinson. They can use both in the same type of system that they had last year, and you could still be sad you drafted either. Yeah, I mean, in basketball, I get it because you're going to have a couple big games that will be auto put in your lineup. And also because really I think McCle Hardman, DeMarcus Robinson, this is a situation of injury. Like Kelsey and Tyree Kill have been healthy.

the vast majority of games with Patrick Mahomes. And if one of them were to miss time, then someone has to step up. Maybe that is just Clyde, and it's not these guys. But that's why I would, you know, in a best ball league, I would look at one of those guys, but not in redraft or keeper leagues. Okay. Mike, do you have any thoughts on the wide receiver core? I mean, this team runs. It's Mahomes. It's Kelsey. It's Tyree Kill. And then it's.

And then Clyde for me. And then Clyde. And then you're moving forward. They start against Cleveland, Baltimore, and then the Chargers. So that'll be an interesting start. Yeah, but it's also Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City. Yeah, it doesn't matter. Yeah. Matchups aren't going to matter. Yeah. And also, since we haven't really touched on Kelsey and Tyreekill much, draft them in the first round. End of conversation. Before we get to the Raiders. The Raiders. Look.

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And they started six and three. They had a week five win at Kansas City. Five and four and one score games. They hit the over on their totals, 13 of 16 games. Those number one in the NFL. Because everybody went into the game going, ah, the Raiders.

And then all seldom. Oh, Derek Carr, you cutie, pituity. And then Derek Carr and Nelson Aguilar went nuts. They were 10th and points per game. This was a good offense. They were 11th and rushing attempts. 14th and rushing yards. That's crazy. That's crazy. That is a top 10 offense in almost every major offensive category. Does it feel that way, Jason? No. No way. Not even close. If you remember last year,

They were the wackiest, wildest team where every time you expected something, they did the opposite. When they beat the Kansas City Chiefs, it was like unbelievable. They scored, they put up a 40 burger on the Chiefs. It was great. And then a couple weeks later against Atlanta, they scored six points in a loss. It was like you just couldn't peg them. And now this offseason, they've been wild and wacky, just trading away their offensive line, bringing in Kenyon, Drake, doing all these moves. It just.

Look, to us, dumb outsiders, look stupid. I'm curious, Andy. I've waited the whole show to find out. What was the Vegas winter? I would put them at like seven and a half. Seven. Oh, yeah. That's right. Generous. In fact, it was seven and a half at the beginning of the off season and now it's seven. Here's the spoiler alert. It's the lowest in the division. It's a good division. It is. But that's a, I mean, they finished second last year.

The defense is rough. I was going to say, are they still trying to factor in the possibility of Aaron Rogers to the Broncos? No, I don't think so. Because I think we agree that Denver has the bones of a good team. They do. And so if Teddy Bridgewater can help be just a little bit better than Drew Locke, then maybe they have a shot. And we'll talk about them shortly. But with the Raiders, you're right. The defense was awful. 50% of their opponent's drives ended in a score.

So half the time their opponents had the ball. They ended up scoring. They had to score a lot. Like those points per game totals and those numbers can be a little bit deceptive when you're playing comeback football all the time. Jason alluded to it. They signed Kenyon, Drake, and John Brown this off season. They let go of Nelson Aguilar, who is their leading receiver. And, you know, Derek Carr is still there. Send in the car. Send in the car.

Career highs and passing yards, yards per completion, and quarterback rating last year. Weird team. I think a general, like, fantasy dislike distorts what they've been able to have success with, maybe just thinking that Derek Carr is not a franchise quarterback. A lot of people don't believe he is. But this was a pretty good year for them on the offensive side of the football. So, you know, Derek Carr is not a big talking point for fantasy. No. Nobody's out there.

You know, we don't even bring him up as a streamer very much. Right now he's the quarterback 28. So basically everybody's getting drafted with higher upside in people's minds compared to Derek Carr. Well, one of the things that is so great about Darren Waller and one of the is the same problem with their card. There's.

Not a lot of weapons here, or at least not a lot of trustworthy target hogs. We hope that Henry Ruggs can take that step forward. Maybe John Brown will be able to stay healthy or Brian Edwards, remember him? But the hype train last year, like maybe one of these guys will do something. But for the most part, you look at this wide receiver core and you say, this is among the worst in the league. They don't have a lot there, which is great for Darren Waller.

He's the number one target, but that's the problem with Derek Carr. Like, I can't get mad at Derek Carr because is it his fault? You know what I mean? Like that we're not excited about him for fantasy. When he had Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper, he was good. Well, and he was good on paper last year, but what you're saying brings up the truth, which is if you don't have wide receivers that could take, that are probable to take the next step or established.

You don't have a ceiling, right? Like last year with Nelson Aguilar, who is now gone? 46% of the targets went to the wide receivers. That was the lowest in the NFL. Now that guy's gone, and Hunter Renfro and Henry Ruggs, and to be named later, are going to be their top options. Maybe it's John Brown. But this is not, I don't think people see the ceiling there. And I think they see John Gruden, then they say, he went out and got Kenyon Drake. Josh Jacobs already had a ton of carries. He wants the identity to be the running game.

Yeah, I mean, clearly. That's the problem, or a problem with the Raiders is John Gruden. Tremendous in the booth, Monday night football. I love having John Gruden up there. On the sideline, I do not trust what this man is up to here. I mean, Derek Carr, steady. I will say that, you know, the majority of his career, he's thrown for right at 4,000 yards. But then he's given you.

Usually low 20s in passing touchdowns. He had, you know, we got the 27 mark last year. But again, things went crazy. You saw Kirk Cousins with, I think, like 35 touchdowns. It was wild last year. So I don't trust the coaching staff to put these players in the position that we need them to be in for fantasy football. The wheels could also fall off here. Like, it's a very tough division. They have the lowest Vegas win total.

And the Derek Carr screams, like there's zero cap next year. And the offensive line is trash. Yeah, if they don't like it, they might move on. They have really, they've done a great job disassembling their offensive line, which I don't know why they chose to do that, but they did. And that's going to hurt Derek Carr a lot. The question to me is Henry Ruggs. Can he will, he step forward? Because he's a screaming value late in drafts.

Sure. He costs you nothing. You could drop him if he doesn't hit. If he does take that step forward into an elite, the option for a lot of targets, if he had 130 targets this year, you could see a path for that because he's competing with John Brown. He just has to go.

I mean, it has to be a huge step up. Yes. I like the can he question more than the will he. It's much easier to answer the can he question. But 43 targets last year to what you're talking about is it's going to be rugs, but it's also going to be a Gruden decision and a car decision to get him the ball that much.

Yeah, it's improbable. And John Brown's probably going to be the one that actually earns the trust of Derek Carr in practice. He's the best wide receiver on the team now. Yes, he is. And Nelson Hegelar was last year, which is shocking. Are you guys familiar with Is Gruden Gone Yet.com? No. No. It's just a clock that shows you how much money he's actually owed. Oh, I have seen that before. It's a very funny counter, but it.

Just to highlight the deal that they gave him. He still has six years remaining and is still owed nearly $65 million. Wow, that is a fun website. So if the wheels fall off this year for the Raiders. They won't fall off for Gruden. They don't fall off for John Gruden. What was the Raiders? He's on a hoverboard. What was their record this season before? Okay. So they were seven and nine. So they went from seven and nine to eight and eight. Okay. Which.