AFC West Breakdown + Buy or Sell, Big Kid Parties - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/15

Yeah, I mean, look, David Montgomery is far more valuable. We're talking about obviously different areas of the draft, a couple rounds apart. But Damian Harris versus David Montgomery, who was last year's running back four, you know, is completely being disrespected right now at the three, four turn. You know, I would rather take a shot on David Montgomery being what we saw at the end of the year. I don't project him to be that.

Also right there are great wide receivers. But we've seen enough on the field and enough involvement in the fact that the head coach, this isn't a beat reporter. This is the head coach saying he wants to get him the ball a lot. It's a good option for fantasy. If you draft a wide receiver early or you're the Travis Kelsey, Darren Waller team, stealing David Montgomery at the end of the third round or the top of the fourth round, I just think you have something solid?

No matter what. And you might have something great. Right. That's how I view Montgomery. That's a fair way to look at it. Let's see. I'm looking at my rankings. I have him projected right now, RB20. So RB 19 on the 80, I'm not far off of what people out there drafting believe about David Montgomery. But we have seen the upside before. I just, I'm out on, I'm out on him repeating.

that again. Well, that makes sense. That's why you know I'm ranked at 4. Yeah, but I'm saying I'm out of like RB1 top 12 for David Montgomery. I would not take that. I do think that there is a pathway with Justin Fields where this offense is better. Just in general is a higher scoring, better moving offense. It's better with Andy Dalton than it was last year. Yeah, sure. Well, Andy Dalton, Nick Foles.

They're so close to me. Right, which is where he did put up elite numbers with those horrible, horrible players. Don't forget about that. But we'll talk more about them, it sounds like. Nico Collins, Texans rookie wide receiver should have a chance at a lot of snaps early. Makes a lot of sense when you look at Houston's depth chart at wide receiver. They trade it up to get them in the third round. So familiarize yourself with the name Nico Collins.

Brandon Cooks is on the other gross draft pick lists with maybe David Montgomery and some of these other names. But Nico Collins, what do you guys think here? I love it. Any upside? Yeah, there is absolutely upside. It's a day two pick, a day two pick from a team that had very limited draft capital just going into the draft. And then they go after their guy, Nico Collins. Yes, he became one of my favorite later round rookie picks.

If it really is Taylor as the quarterback for this team for the season, Nico Collins is probably not going to be that interesting this year for fantasy, but he is a name that you should familiarize yourself with right now. Yeah, more for Dynasty than redraft, but he's certainly good. And Nico Collins and Amun Ross St. Brown for the Detroit Lions. These are two rookies that you might not be familiar with their names.

but their opportunities are wide open in front of them. They have very little competition, and if they can prove themselves, then they will be on the NFL field getting targets more than, you know, a lot of other rookies. All right, that was today's news and notes presented, as always, by Sleeper, Switcher League to the fastest growing fantasy platform in the world. In the world. All right. Let's move on. Let's get divisional.

All right, we're in the AFC West. Let's start at the top, the tippic top of the league. 14 and 2, the Kansas City Chiefs coming in with a Vegas win total projection of, you want to guess? Jason, I like it when you guess these because you've been very close and you never cheat, maybe. Okay. I cheated things, but I've not cheated at this. I would say 12. Mike, did you already see it? I did not, but I would take the over. 12.5. Okay.

You lose, sucker. You know, only two losses. The Raiders got them in week five. And then week 17 was really, they didn't play their starters. So, man, that's the, that's the way. You want to beat the chiefs. Get them to not play their starters. Get them to not play their starters in week 18. Right. That's, that's, that's, that's my.

like coaching strategy. Crazy stat from last year. Every single game from week 9 through 16 for the Chiefs last year was a one score game. Seven consecutive one score games. Wow. And they went seven and no. Oh. So Mahomes, my home's the goat there. To me that is, that's having the closer. That's Michael Jordan in the final minute. That's Kobe in the final minute. You've got Mahomes and you end up winning those games. Like that's not anomalous to me. That is very anomalous to me. Because even you list those names.

Kobe and Jordan, yeah, they made a lot of buzzer beaters. They also missed a lot of buzzer beaters. Mariano Rivera. Is that name better? Yeah, that's better. Incredible. You not only pronounced it but knew it. Yeah, baseball. That was great until game seven. I want to know that I know we don't have it right now, Brooks, but I'd love to know the historical Patrick Mahomes one score game totals because I doubt they're much different. He wins these games. Peyton Manning.

wins those games. Tom Brady wins those games. I'm just saying 7 and 0. Sure. Yeah, maybe you lose one. The ball bounces the wrong way in three of those games. You're 14. You're 11.5. Yeah, which is very different. All right. They had the worst red zone defense in football last year. Number six. Do you think they get when the other team gets into the red zone, the defense is like, be? Don't matter. Yeah, like, Mahomes will take care of this. Let's.

Pack it in. We didn't hold them. Let them in. Go. I'm tired. 77% of the time, their opponents scored a touchdown in that situation. And they got to the Super Bowl. Yeah. Points per game last year. Obviously, the offense is incredible. Sixth in points per game. First and total yards. First and passing yards. 23rd and rushing attempts. I mean, everybody wanted Clyde Gridsillard to come in and take over and give you the Cream Hunt rookie season. Didn't happen at all.

He didn't give you the Kareem Hunt season. No. And look, they didn't lean on him. I think that's, there's two parts of it, right? Part of it is could you get that elite season? But part of it is, are they going to let him be part of the identity as the offense in Kansas City? And the answer was no. I think that's why people were more disappointed is because there wasn't a game where you go, I mean, in that rookie year for Kreme Hunt, it was like, oh, that's a Kareem Hunt game. Yeah, that's fair. There was never a Clyde game.

It's always a Mahomes game in Kansas City. So it's not to say anything about Clyde's potential, but we haven't seen him take over. Yeah, or Karim's rookie year. I mean, you have won like six or seven games where he had 20 plus attempts. I'm going to look it up. Did Clyde ever have? 20 plus attempts? Yeah. So he had 25 carries. He had 20 or more carries three times, including week one. Week one. Okay.

Week one definitely compounded into our feelings about Clyde because it was first round running back for the highest scoring offense in the league. This is incredible. Andy Reed running backs more often than not give you incredible fantasy football seasons. And then week one, 25 carries for 138 yards and a touchdown. I know he had the...

multiple getting stuffed on the goal line thing that people started to debate about. But you go from that into not getting 20 plus carries a game. I think that that also factored in because before he got hurt, he was a top 12 running back. Well, something interesting to think about with this offense and with Clyde specifically is that unlike, you know, the run heavy teams like Tennessee.

You can absolutely not include your running game and dominate an NFL game. So you don't have to feature it. You don't have to focus on it. You don't have to resort to at any point in time. If Patrick Mahomes wants the ball in his hands, that can happen. You can lose. You can have a game like that, like you're saying, where he's got a handful of carries and they use somebody else. And, you know, you're going to have what? They added Derek McKinnon. They stole of Darrell Williams. They lost Damien Williams.

That's the other side of the coin with the upside of Clyde. He's a multi-dimensional player. He can catch the football. Even last year, he was one of only 14 running backs with 235 opportunities in the quote-unquote bad rookie year. So there is upside there. He's just not, wasn't the focal point last year and won't be this year.

Yeah, he's not going to be the focal point, but I do believe that he is one of the best values right now because he's being drafted at what I believe his floor is. You know, he's right now, the lowest I could see him finishing a full season or, you know, 15 or 16 games would basically be like running back 16. And that's where he's being drafted. But his upside is absolutely top five in this offense. So you talk about possible my guys. This is someone where when I have been in the third round,

And Clyde falls there. I just, I really have a hard time not taking them. Even if I've already gone running back, running back, or it allows you to take Kelsey. Clyde Edwards-Alair, to me, he's a massive value because of the disappointment of last year. And he was a rookie. Like we can't forget that, you know, past protection and all those things that we bring up with other players. He's only going to be more involved this year.

I don't think he's going to be less involved. So I'm, he's my favorite kind of value running back right now. He's going, he was, the rushing touchdowns also really hurt him. You had four, four total on the season. So you have, you know, he was averaging a touchdown every 45.

attempts and meanwhile you guys you have guys like melvin gordon a touchdown every 24 attempts jonathan taylor every 21 attempts kenyon drake who kept felt like he kept getting stuffed over and over every 24 rushing attempts you have some positive touchdown regression coming for clyde edwards alert even if he is not hitting kareem hunt levels of 25 attempts per game

I agree. I think there's a chance for that to happen. I mean, it's a team, much like with Aaron Rogers and Green Bay a few years ago, where they're very comfortable just throwing the football inside the five. I mean, throwing it to Travis Kelsey, shovel passing it to Travis Kelsey. Yeah. That freaking tap passes. Yeah. So they do creative things inside the red zone. They don't just hand the ball off. But, I mean, it's a difference between him and like David Montgomery, right? Where Montgomery could be the focal point of the entire bear office. He probably will be.

That probably will be their offense. So do you want David Montgomery? They're both third round guys. So if you're like in the middle of the third, you're choosing which one you want. Would you go Clyde or David Montgomery? Right now I have them two spots apart. I have David Montgomery higher. Okay. So, but there's tons of upside for Clyde. Obviously you love being attached to that offense. They have rebuilt their offensive line. Like a full, like they watch the film.

Then they threw up into a... What, the Super Bowl? They threw up into a bucket, and then they redid their offensive line. They brought in the big trade for Orlando Brown. Joe Thune's there at Guard. Full remake. I mean, that could mean good things, but it is a transition. They've got Tardeefe coming back from the COVID-I-R. I think they're only returning one starter, which, you know, continuity is important for offensive line, but the actual players matter, too. And this is an upgraded offensive line, which was their clear hole.

last year. Where are you drafting Patrick Mahomes? That's the question, because we all think he's great. He's the number one or number two fantasy option this year at quarterback. I'm comfortable. He's probably the only quarterback I can say this about, but because of the historical success, I am comfortable in the third round taking Patrick Mahomes. If you want to do it, I'm not going to beat you up over it. I mean, he's been a quarterback one in 75% of all of his starts. And I've had him on teams, and it's great.

Because you know nine times out of ten, you're beating your opponent at that position. And with him not being the, you know, third round, I could live with it. It's really tough for me because while you can easily argue that the value is there for someone as such a known commodity as Patrick Mahomes, I have Kyler ahead of him. And Kyler's going on the fifth. So I can't imagine taking Mahomes where he is. This year, it seems to me I'm going to be almost exclusively late round.

draft pick because if Kyler goes up anymore, then I'm just going to wait to the late rounds. Yeah, there's no way I'm going to get my homes, unfortunately. I do want to talk about the wide receivers because I think that there's a false narrative that is out there for the Kansas City Chiefs, which is basically like, this is the year for McColl Hardman or DeMarcus Robinson to step up. Because it just makes sense. But that dude throws 5,000 yards and 40 plus touchdowns. How is no one else catching the ball?