Starts of the Week + It’s Football Time! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 9/7

to the fantasy footballers podcast with your host Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Oh, welcome in. It's football time. We did it. It's here. It's football time. Welcome in one and all the party lights. They're shining. They're blinding. We're here. Andy Mike and Jason back with you. Life is. Life is good again. I woke up happy. Yeah. For the first time since last season. Oh, man. Is there a pep in your step? And I don't know why. We did it. We got here. Oh, man. Game one of the 2023 season. Fantasy points will count tonight. This is incredible. Do you see what show number we're on? Oh, what is it? 1,400 and...

It's all coming together. This is a great day, guys. Oh, boy. Thank you to the Ducers for participating in that introduction. It's football time. We've got NFL news, a quick question, matchup previews, starts of the week, the boom boom kicker, and a lot to talk about. I have emerged from the fetal position in the corner of the office where I spent... most of my time weeping from the Travis Kelsey knee scare. And I'm here to tell you it's going to be a great year. We've got tons of free resources for you on the website, the fantasy footballers.com. All of our expert rankings every single week. We've got the start sit tool available to you, all the in-season articles. We've got a reminder, the DFS embedding podcast is back at it.

So if you participate in DFS, which I've got some showdown lineups tonight, because I find that to be extremely fun, mostly due to having won one of those. And I'm trying to get that high again. But it's a real shot of dopamine. When you win the Millie Maker. Yeah. Yeah, it's pretty good. And then Sunday live, don't forget about this. Go to ballerslive.com on Sunday morning. And the fantasy hitman will be there with you, tilting his. Bearded face right off. No face. No face left. And look, it's time. So follow us on socials. A lot of good content going up there lately at the FF Ballers. We have a free Discord channel. You can get there by going to the website and then the icons in the upper right. I'm hitting you with a lot of info, but it's regular season time. You need this info. That's the point. Yeah, I mean, this is, it's time to win. It's time to win, baby.

and the community. If you want to step up, become an official supporter of the show, a Foot Clan member. I checked it out. There's 31,000 of you right now. Tons of in-season perks. That's join thefoot.com. And you end up with all the premium Discord channels. You get an extra episode of the podcast every week. You get the premium tools, including the streamfinder tool, the consistency charts. It's going to be a great year. And I am excited for Travis Kelsey to play tonight. Guys. Let's call our shot right now. I think he's out there. So we have moved. We're moving through the stages of grief. Yeah. We're on to denial. I am not grieving. And I believe he plays. Okay. Mike, you are in the camp of no? I lean that he will miss week one. I mean, not a doctor. There's not a whole lot of information. But.

It's Travis Kelsey is a superstar. If Travis Kelsey tells the team that he's going to play, I imagine that the team goes, okay, Travis, you go play. But it also is a really, really long season. And the Chiefs are trying to win a Super Bowl. So sitting him down for week one, if the knee is still swollen, it makes so much sense because they can beat the Lions without, I'm sorry the Lions, but they can beat the Lions without Travis Kelsey. That? kind of logic will not be tolerated here we are looking at trust me the uh while we were reveling in the fact that you in our in the two main leagues league of record in our big dynasty league you have kelsey that's correct however in the dino junior where we are champ champ champ i realize

Uh-oh. Hey, how's it feel? The team of old men could be crumbling in week one as we will be playing. Trey McBride should Travis Kelsey miss week one. All right. Let's help the listeners. A lot of Travis Kelsey managers out there freaking out. If he's active and they say something like he'll be on a snap count. You play him no matter what. I mean. No one has the option out there of saying, uh, should I play Travis Kelsey or T.J. Hawkinson. You know, it's right. Your, your options are off of the waiver wire right now. Maybe like there, which there's interesting guys, but it's Sam Laporte tonight. A rookie making his debut. It's Jake Ferguson being the first time he's ever really being a starter for the Dallas Cowboys. It's Gerald Everett. It's, uh, which I don't hate Gerald Everett. But, uh, he, I, it.

I would play Travis Kelsey. It's Travis Kelsey unless they put him on the bench and then strap him there. Travis Kelsey could finish this game with five yards and three touchdowns. That is in the range of outcomes. Yeah. Maybe he plays. And that's another thing. If they say Travis Kelsey is active, I'm playing it for fantasy football. And if they go out there and snap one, he's not on the field, don't freak out just yet. They could say, we're going to save Travis Kelsey for the red zone. Like we're going to use them on the really, really important snaps. And he can still make an impact for you. So if he's active, I'm playing him. Going down with that ship. Yep. All right, quick question of the day. It's an over-under question from the website. Matt submitted this one. He said, hey, guys, when looking at the over-under score for an upcoming game, what is the score threshold that either makes you excited or worried about who you are playing that week? And that's going to be part of our matchup breakdowns every week.

You know, historically, 50 plus over under games are gold nights. Yeah, they're delicious. They get us very hot and bothered on the match-up ships. But there haven't been a lot of those. In a week one, there are only two of them. One is Detroit, Kansas City. It's one of the reasons why I'm actually okay with LaPorta tonight as your pivot. That's why I'm okay with Gerald Everett. Yeah. And then the other, well, the other one's Miami, Los Angeles. So the Chargers. Last year, 10% of regular season games closed with a 50 plus point total. A game total under what worries you? Certainly under 40. Yes, yes. Those terrifying. Unless you're wanting to stream a defense. If you're wanting to stream a defense, that's kind of what you look for. You look for a favorite in a really low scoring or a low over under. We took a look back. Anything over to the 45 point threshold is that's perfectly fine.

and a game total under 42 is worrisome, but also you need to be looking at not just over under, but team implied points. Because an over under could be, you know, in the high 40s, but then you look, oh, well, the team that's favored is their favorite by 10 points. So saying that the team on the other side is not actually going to be scoring that many points. So there's a lot of things to look at, which we'll help walk you through all that when we're doing matchups. All right. Anything else to add there, Mr. Moore? All right. Let's hop in the news. News and notes from around the league. Presented by USAA Insurance. While we discussed the Travis Kelsey situation, we will be monitoring that news. We will be breaking whatever news comes through or anything we hear on socials at the FF Ballers. Rams head coach Sean McVeigh ruled out Cooper Cup for Sunday's regular season opener, and he did not rule out the possibility of placing him on the injured reserve.

We were saying from the get-go here when he re-aggravated it when they said it's not a big deal, it was a minor thing. We said right off the bat, he's missing at least a month. That is the most probable outcome just based on the history of his age and this injury as a re-aggravation. Yeah, and so it's, it really sucks, but it, you know, hopefully. Our advice was helpful for people thinking about how do you handle Cooper Cup if you're drafting later. We did our Meglabel draft. Andy, you did take him in the second. That was, I think, just before this news came out, would you have still taken the risk? No, I wouldn't have. Okay. Yeah, I mean, that was a gamble. It's one that could pay off later. I had to stack up, I believe, four or five consecutive wide receivers later in the draft to essentially account for the fact I knew I wasn't going to have him early. Right.

ultimately they don't have to make the IR decision yet. They're trying to get all the information possible. Jason made the argument yesterday here in the studio that like second round pick for Cooper Cup could still totally be worth it if you miss four games. It could. If he's the number one receiver from week five on, of course it's worth it. Yeah, but just really, really high risk that he comes back and he's turd again. Did you say turd again? It sounded like it. Sounded like you said turd again. All right. It's all one in the same. It is, I guess. Mark Andrews returned to a limited practice. Okay. This is great news. I have limited. No. This is good news. Great news is. Is full practice. The limited practice, I will absolutely take it. We'll be watching him over the next couple of days. Mark Andrews is, it's, it's good because you spent the high draft capital pick on him. Seeing him at practice, what's not fantastic is.

The Baltimore Ravens are heavy, heavy favorites this week against the Texans and C.J. Stroud. So there is a chance that Mark Andrews plays like half a game, similar to Travis Kelsey's. So those concerns are not out of here. But again, if Mark Andrews plays, I'm playing Mark Andrews. I don't know if Houston scores 10. It's going to be really, really tough. Christian Watson and Romeo Dobbs, both missed practice on Wednesday due to hamstring injuries. Yesterday we were talking up Christian Watson with Dobbs's injury. Watson felt insecure about the pressure and decided to cast a shadow of doubt over the weekend. This is tough because Watson would have been a start of the week contention. Yeah, he was listed there to be my starter early this week. The matchup is brilliant for him. The injury being a little bit more long term for Romeo Dobbs made it seem like.

Christian Watson is completely wheels up, ready to go. I still think if he is active, because he's missed very, very little time. If he actually plays this week, then he is an okay start. You always worry about reaggravation, but it's still a matchup worth putting Christian Watson in your lineup, so I'm not afraid of that. But wide receivers that miss a Wednesday practice for a hamstring injury, slightly more than half the time miss that week's game. All right, two rookies I want to report about. And if you took chances on them in the draft, you were rewarded. Jackson Smith and Jigba wide receiver for the Seahawks will play in the opener. Devon A-Chane has been removed from the injury report. Woo-hoo! And so A-Chane and Smith and Jigba should make their debuts on Sunday. It's very exciting. Opportunities for both to make an impact early, both very talented players. Please know more suplexes on Devon A-Chane.

That's going to be hard not to do. I mean, if you got the chance to suplex someone in the NFL, you take it. Mm-hmm. It's really... Oh, I would do it. I'm just saying, please don't. Could he? No, you doesn't want to wear like a weight jacket or something. That would hurt. That would hurt. He needs to Darren Sprouls. Yes, he does. He needs to learn how to use his speed to get to where he's going and then don't fight for extra yards. No. Go down. Yeah. Dalvin Cook, full go for week one against Buffalo. Man. He could have a nice start to the year for your fantasy team. Matchup's not great, but, you know, every down there getting receptions from Aaron Rogers. We know what he did for Aaron Jones at times. Breece Hall is just going to dominate. Week one? Just right out the game. Okay. Which would be your biggest fear, if I recall. That would be my biggest fear desire. It's like a desire that I'm afraid of.

A desire you're afraid of. Fear sire? And if you just had, if you just had courage to draft him everywhere, it would just be your greatest joy. Yeah. Yeah, but you were a coward. I was a coward. And that's what I'm afraid of. My biggest fear is that my cowardice comes back upon me. That is my fear. Okay, we got there. Hollywood Brown limited in practice on Wednesday with the hamstring. That's not great. Josh Dobbs is expected to be a starter for the Cardinals. That's right. That's right, Arizona. You're still sitting on your information like big, fat dummies. But we got it. And yes what? No one's afraid. No one is afraid. No one is worried that Josh Dobbs is the secret starting quarterback. Washington is like, oh, oh, Dobbs, okay, cool. So to start the offseason, to be clear, it was Kyler Murray, Colt McCoy, Clayton, Toon, David Blow. Yes. And the starter for the season is Josh Jobs, who wasn't on the team.

Correct. Well, to be fair, he wasn't on the team two weeks ago. But he just got added. There was an article that came out, I believe, on ESPN. And they, it was the best because the only reason I clicked it was it said 32 teams, 32 cases for them to win the Super Bowl. And of course, they rank them in order of odds. And they make the case for the Cardinals. And it was just. An enjoyable piece of fiction. Oh, they didn't just be like, no. I mean, it was basically like Kyler comes back early. The division, the case for the Cardinals was the division is so bad that they win their final game of the year, putting them at 7 and 10, which wins them the division, and then Kyler goes nuclear in the playoffs. Okay, we can do it. Totally believable. It was fun because I knew that article had to make the case. Nope.

George Kettle returned to a limited practice. And there you go. Game preview on today's show. That was today's news and notes presented by USAA Insurance. Learn more at usaa.com slash insurance. Fantasy forecast. All right, we're diving into the first fantasy forecast of the year. We're previewing the games. We're looking at those Vegas lines. The trends were potentially. discovering some stupid nicknames along the way. Potentially. You know, we try not to spend too much time on the elite options, just to be clear. Like if you listen to the matchup shows and then on Twitter, you're like, man, they did not talk about McCaffrey a lot. That's because we're helping you make start sit decisions, not necessarily telling you whether or not to start the player you're starting. And so just keep that in mind. You're starting CMC, you're starting Jefferson, starting Jamar Chase. These are players that we're never going to tell you to sit.

If there is a storyline about them, we will certainly bring it up if there's an injury. But we want to focus on tougher, start-sit decisions, the trajectory of these teams. We're at the information gathering stage of the season. Like a lot of the premium tools on join the foot are gathering data right now. Without two or three weeks worth of real information on the defenses, like, you know, our starts of the week this week are based on what we've known of these teams and what happens in camp, but you don't have. They don't have defensive numbers for this season. So we're going to get more and more information, which will help make the predictions more accurate. Yeah, everything that we're talking about, when we talk about defensive ranks on today's episode, we are using what is a really good metric, which is a schedule adjusted defensive rank from last year because we have the entire year of data. Now, obviously, that's last year's teams, and this year's teams are going to be wildly different. We see a lot of changeover year after year, so you can't really...

go by that entirely. Starting next week, and for a couple more weeks, we're just going to be able to use what has happened for one week at a time. But come week four, week five, we will start using the schedule adjusted data. That stuff will be our default on all the join the foot tools as really powerful stuff. And don't forget, if we do not talk about your favorite player long enough, there is the rankings that you can lean on and the start sit tool on the website. and a whole lot more resources specific to those players. Let's begin. The Carolina Panthers, they travel to Atlanta to take on the Atlanta Falcons. The DK Sportsbook line here, Atlanta minus three and a half. Remember what we said scared us? Yep. Over under is 39.5 points. That is what you get when you match up Desmond Ritter and Bryce Young making his debut.

both teams have, I could see both teams 100% winning the division. I really can't. The Panthers had such a great end to the season. The division is not intimidating. They're not who I'm picking, but I think both teams have a path. I think the Falcons, in my opinion, one of the chances to be the best record that we didn't see coming. Sure. Because they have a running game. I think their defense will improve. If Desmond Ritter is competent, they were in a ton of games last year. The implied point total, though, for this game, 21 and a half points. The Panthers at 18. Frank Reich is 04 and 1 historically as a head coach in week one. He is the inverse Andy Reid. Not all losses, though. Did have a tie. Thank you. You also have Bryce Young, where the number one overall quarterback pick has not won in their first week, game one, since 2002.

21 years. Yeah. That's wild. Yeah, it was David Carr. I mean, makes sense. If you're the number one pick, it's because your team sucks. They do have a shot this week against Atlanta. Sure, sure. Desmond Ritter, the storyline with the rushing Falcons offense is that he only averaged 18 completions per game in his starts last year. It's why there's concern around Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Matt Hollins, any receiving options in Atlanta. I felt like in our draft and correct me if I'm wrong, much like the David Montgomery thing I said yesterday where people were just hesitant to take him. There wasn't excitement. He just kept falling. Kyle Pitts kept falling in the draft. Nobody went after Kyle Pitts. I was a little shocked, little surprised. Yeah, we talked about on the show mock drafts is really where you want to have them. Real drafts, you got to play him. You missed that moment of the show because we did. We talked about.

Both Jason and I have drafted Kyle Pitts in one of our leagues. And we both said the minute we drafted it, we went, oh, nope, that was a bad pick. What have I done? The problem is, is, okay, let's take 18 completions. And let's distribute that. You know, Bijan is going to be a huge part of the passing game. That didn't exist last year. You've got a low over under. You've got Kyle Pitts needing to have targets on target. And one of the things their head coach came out and talked about was how he became a more complete player last season. But that meant that he was involved in the running game, which is the fundamental part of this offense. And, you know, last season, Kyle Pitts, let's not forget. Like, I know he got hurt. In 10 games, he had 356 yards. So it's not to say he's not going to have his games. He will absolutely have his games this year. Is this going to be one of them?

I don't think this is where I would project it. This matchup against Carolina Panthers, who had last season a pretty good rush defense against an Atlanta Falcons team that wants to establish it, wants to run the ball, wants to use the new shiny tool in Bijon Robinson. I just don't expect a ton of points. Obviously, Draft King's Sportsbook does not either. So this isn't where you would project the big breakout game for Kyle Pitts. Yeah, I do expect that the passing volume will go up for Atlanta. I mean, yes, Desmond Ritter 18 completions, but Desmond Ritter was also thrown into the fire. They're at the end of the season. We only saw four starts, an entire offseason, building the team offense around Desmond Ritter. Because it was very early on in the process, they said, this is going to be our guy. I mean, if I drafted a Falcon, I'm playing. Like, Bijon is a, will be an automatic start every week. If I drafted Drake London in the fifth round, I'm...

I'm going to play him. I'm not trying to look at a later round option. And the same goes for Kyle Pitts. I think the more interesting questions are on the other side for Carolina. They're pretty easy answer, but I think they're more interesting. Yeah, let's start with the running back situation. Last year, the Falcons were not good against the running back. The Panthers were 10th in the league. They gave up 17.4 fantasy points. Is Miles Sanders set up to have a good first game here? I mean, if... He's set up for a whole bunch of volume. We did get a quote kind of recently because Sanders had his groin injury that was widely reported. And he said, I mean, it was really just a couple days. Like this wasn't a lengthy groin injury that he had suffered. He is capable of catching the ball. His draft stock soared after Frank Reich through, I think it was Frank Reich. They were talking saying,

They threw out there. We want to get you back to 50 plus catches. But so Miles Sanders is in. Adam Phelan was limited at practice with an ankle. So I'm already hurt. He's limited as actually his permanent status for the remainder of his career. Which and DJ Chark not practicing with a hamstring. Don't expect to see him. So that takes me to the rookie Jonathan Mingo, who I think is a a must watch player this weekend. And. Depending on the size of your league, I think that's stashing him at the back of the bench. Because there's a chance that Mingo wasn't drafted in your league. I think a Sunday ad, should you have someone like Romeo Dobbs or one of these players that they get marked out, put him in the IR and who are you going to stash? Jonathan Mingo is very interesting. Who are you going to stand? Jonathan Mingo. Thank you. Yeah, but you're not starting any receiving option for the Carolina Panthers. Correct. You're going to wait and see how Bryce Young does. Yeah, not in this over under. Nope. Yeah.

All right, quick break back with the next matchup. Here we go. Yeah, this one looks better. Cincinnati travels to Cleveland to take on the Browns. The Draft King Sportsbook line here, Cincinnati minus two and a half. The overrunners 48 and a half. More excited about this. 48 and a half, that's a good line. Joe Barrow said, I'm good to go. Yep. Yeah, he's good to go. They had him on a secret regiment to recover. And he got there. And they split the series last year. Cleveland won at home. They smashed the Bengals. Oh, that was the, was that the Halloween game? It was. Yeah, that were Evan McPherson did not have two. Jason lost some money on that game. And, uh, that's why I remember it. I remember walking around Halloween night, watching my phone going, kick a field goal. That's right. Kick a field goal. Oh, they, no, they did. Oh, they missed it. Yeah.

So Joe Burrow, Deshawn Watson, Watson was one of the last picks in our draft. He's also on several of my teams because he's the quarterback I've gone with when all the others are snagged up at the top. I generally pair him with like an Anthony Richardson later or an Aaron Rogers later just to kind of hedge against the fact that what if he doesn't put it together. But I think he will. Marty Cooper, Elijah Moore, David Najoku. Nick Chubb, this offense has the capability of being pretty good. And I like that they're at home in week one. You know, if this game was in Cincinnati, I'd be pretty cautious about all their offensive pieces. I am, you know, it's not the greatest matchup with Cincinnati's defense being pretty stout. But for wide receivers last year, there were opportunities. So I think Amari Cooper could start the year pretty strong. Amari Cooper to me is a must start. He's just where he was drafted and his talent, where he.

is in the pecking order of the offense. He's an in no matter what to me. I think the real question is Deshaun Watson. Like you said, you've got him in a couple leagues and you usually paired him. I did the same exact thing. I have him in a couple of leagues and most of the time I've got him paired either with Tua or with Gino. Personally, the way that I'm approaching week one, both of those players I would play over to Sean Watson. I want to see what Deshaun Watson is and this isn't a great matchup for him. Whereas Tua...

has the chargers at home, high over under, and Gino is a great start this week against the Rams. So if you've got the option, even on waiver wire. What about DAC who ended up on the waiver wire in our league? Dak against the Giants in New York or Watson at home? I think I would take the shot on Watson there personally. They're about even to me. Same tier. I'd go, I'd go DAC. Would you? Yeah. Okay. I do remind folks that. Watson was the number eight, number six quarterback his last two games last year. So we'll see what happens. The rubber meets the road this year for Watson. It's either the worst financial investment in the history of team sports or it works out. Well, yeah, the rubber meets the road, but if the rubber will keep burning no matter what because he will be the quarterback for multiple years. All right, Joe Burrow, if he's in there, you play him. Jamar Chase, of course, T. Higgins, yep. Joe Mixing, the Cleveland Rush defense was

bad bad bad bad bad last year 24 points a game giving up joe mixon he's their guy yep he yes we made it to week one it was a wild and bumpy ride with joe mixon of legal troubles salary cuts who knows what they're doing but he's he sits alone at the top of the depth chart and like we still don't even know who the backup is there was a time when his his uh football card for the Cincinnati bangles said on the front and said star running back Joe Mixon. Right. And now they just put T-I-N-G at the end. It's starting running back Joe Mixing. Yep. He is not what he once was, but he's also good enough to give you, I think, a lot of consistency on a really good offense, a name that has not been uttered. Irv Smith. He is going to be the tight end for the Bengals who has had, you know, their tight ends have had some games. They have. Keep your eyes on it. Absolutely.