Shocking Stats from 2023 + New Rules, Grandpa Jokes - Fantasy Football Podcast for 2/20

baked in. All right, stat number four for you. Kyle has titled this one, time to wave the white flag. Speaking of Rashad White, who finished as the RB7 on the season. However, his 3.6 4 yards per carry is the lowest for a top 15 running back over the last five years. His point seven fantasy points per opportunity was below the league average. And if you look historically, this is where it gets interesting. If you look at the last 14 running backs who finished top 10 but below the league average in fantasy points per attempt, which he was below the league average. Here's what happened there next year. So basically, if you had an outlier, top performance with low efficiency numbers, what happened the next year? 13 of the 14 dropped in fantasy points per game. The average loss was 3.4 points per game. And only three of them remained in the top 10. That was Nick Chubb, Zeke.

and Derek Henry. I don't think we are willing to hand those. No. That kind of a title to Rashad White. And they remain in the top 10 because those are touchdown scorers. Nick Chub, Derek Henry, Zeke, those guys were scoring touchdowns in those inefficient years. Now, that is part of why Rashad White was successful this year. He found the end zone a lot, but he does not project to be someone that regularly. sees the end zone of tonne. He hasn't so far in his career. It was a lot through the air. And this isn't, you know, a team projected to really be one of the top teams in the league. So I think the bet will probably be against Rashad White. He's currently the running back 11 in average draft position. Yeah, it's just how much do you care about that efficiency metric and what we're saying here. I mean, I feel like what you just said about Tampa Bay was exactly what was said about them heading into the season.

Right. Like verbatim. No, I think I was way lower. I said this year I don't expect them to be a top team. I did expect Tampa Bay to be competing for like a top three pick. I genuinely thought they would be one of the worst in the league going into last year. They were pretty darned. They were good. They were not a bad team at all. I think my takeaway here is just if Rashad White gets the exact same opportunity, and his team is competent, then Rashad White will be fine. But this is the warning sign of... You might not be happy with that. If any... I'm saying if anybody else of value comes into this running back room, and I'm saying like anybody, you could have a huge problem for Rashad White. Because if he remains this inefficient, but his opportunities go down, then you're... It will be...

Like you really hope that they're trailing and Rashad White gets five receptions that week. Okay. I mean, you talk about a tough player to evaluate. It feels like RB 11 is drafting him near his ceiling. So there's a lot of risk according to this breakdown in taking him at his peak. And currently the depth chart for the box is Rashad White, Sean Tucker, and Patrick Laird. So they will be putting someone on here. Last year it was Sean Tucker and Chase Edmonds were like, that was the competition. And while I had hopes for Sean Tucker, but what if they don't? What if they don't add someone? Yeah, what if they don't? Would you feel like just re-roll in it? I will feel like it could be worth it, but it's even at RB11, that still is, you're taking on a lot of risk for a player who so far in his career is not known to.

Like he can't A-chan you into a strong week. He only scored on the ground five weeks. Right. So he didn't score. He had six touchdowns. He only scored in five weeks. He did have a lot of these 20 carry games, which look, I don't. That's what I mean. But like those are games that you're going to have necessarily damaged efficiency a lot of the time. Because they're, you know, they won a lot of games down the stretch. So one. You know, four straight victories, 20, 25, 21, 20. So, you know, you're salting away games, right? Sure. And I guess I just wonder if when you watched him, was he an impressive player or not? I thought he was a fine player. I thought he was impressive in the passing game, in the receiving game. Okay. Yeah, he's going to be a tough one next year. Yes, he will. Because I think most people, you know, it was a really good experience to have Rashad White. You got him at a low draft cost, and he was one of the most consistent.

running backs in all of football. And then next year, it might not be as pretty. You should be looking for the next Rashad White, not the same one, not the one who's now overvalued. All right. Number five here. Let James Cook. He had 1,567 yards from scrimmage. James Cook running back for the bills. This number really blew me away. Third in the league behind CMC and Brise Hall. I was like, what? 1,567 yards from scrimmage. And yet, did it feel that way to you? Did you know? Did you like, hearing that he had more yards from scrimmage behind everyone other than CMC and Breece Hall, I just, I was like, I got to vet this. No, I didn't feel that way. And I, you know, he caught fire at the back half of the year. But I think a lot of people like myself in the first half of the year, you felt like you understood what he was going to be and what he was capable of being for the bills.

And then you either moved on or lived with that. I moved on. And then the team moved on from their offensive coordinator. And then they moved directly to James Cook as the engine for the team. And he has one of only five running back since 2000 to finish in the top 12 with two or fewer rushing touchdowns. So he only had five carries inside the five because they were forcing him to Latavius Murray and later Leonard five net. Well, Ty Johnson got involved as well. And, of course, Josh Allen. Yeah, which will not be changing. Josh Allen is the largest threat to James Cook. Kyle, pull up James Cook, best ball ADP, if he could. He is, it's frustrating because this is, it's like the opposite of Rashad White of this guy is going to be pretty great. So running back 12. So right off the bat, who would you rather have next year at this point?

Rashad White or James Cook. Rashad White. With the depth charts staying the same, it would be Rashad White for me. Right. But I'm saying that in your mind making the, which is like, that's what best ball is right now of I'm going to make some projection bets of they're going to do this. Like to me, the bills, I was going to say there, I don't think they'll let anybody splash you, but they keep, they keep being in the news tied to big name players of like. They're going to try and trade for somebody. Maybe that's just the media and nothing's actually coming from the team. But I would expect the Tampa Bay backfield to get a little bit more shook up. So at this point, I would say James Cook. You know, I could see both teams being very happy with what they have production-wise from both running backs. I mean, I do see that as an outcome. You know, I think last year there was a lot of Sean Tucker's name got brought up because.

We all said, well, they're not going to give everything to White. And then they did. They were like, yeah, we will. And James Cook, they tried not to give everything to James Cook, and they didn't go well. So it is interesting to have that dynamic. Now, whether they, you know, whether they trust him around the goal line next year, I wouldn't, I wouldn't trust it, but you're also not betting on him on the back of an outlier touchdown season. Yeah, there's just, it's one of those situations where you know he's not going to be the goal line guy. If he gets five rushing touchdowns, him being James Cook, if he gets five rushing touchdowns, then you know four of them were long. Four of them were, you know, 10, 20 yard rushing touchdowns. They, no matter what we want, no matter how much we say, that's the role. They should, they should not take that role from him. They've already proven that they are not going to have him in that role. They.

They run packages, they take them out when they get down there, and they're going to keep doing it. Aaron Jones was the number nine running back in football with two touchdowns in 2022 on the ground. Number 12 in football with four touchdowns in 2021. That's my biggest kind of comp situation there. Let me throw this out, though, from weeks one through 10. So this is the old busted offense, 10 points a game, almost 15 opportunities per game, and a targets per route run of 13.9%. Weeks 11 to 18, 15 points a game, 20 opportunities a game, and the targets per route run jumped up to 22.6. So I can't necessarily offer you more rushing touchdown. But what if I offer you more... You make it a sales deal? What if I offer you more guaranteed receptions for James Cook? And if you give James Cook a bunch of receptions, good things are going to happen. Yeah. If I change your mind?

No, because that's already what I was expecting. These guys are fairly comp. The efficiency is more with James Cook, but the total receiving numbers will still be on Rashad White's side. James Cook from that week 11 would have been on pace for 48 receptions. That's a good number, but that's not like a, that's not one of those PPR machines that are going to flat out win for fantasy. Yeah, and they're, you know, I've seen the bills mocked to select. one of the top tier wide receivers in the draft. They should. If Diggs is back and they have one of those guys, you know, I would imagine his target per route run is somewhere in between the first half and the second half of the year next year. That's fine. Which would be high. We'll take more than 13.9. But Dalton Kincaid's involved in. I'm just, I don't know. Gabe the Babe will probably not be there. Right. That's why I said Dalton Kincaid. They got to resign him. I just, I,

This team showed me that they can flip their identity on offense in a moment's notice. So, you know, I think they could do it again. They could become that past first team and it would be interesting. All right, quick break back with another big stat. Better be big. All right. This is such a big step, Mike. Well, this will be a good discussion. Kyle Pitts is the discussion that we're going to have. Last year, despite playing only 10 games, Mark Andrews still outscored Kyle Pitts by 2.1 fantasy points. Yeah. He's good. Somehow, Kyle Pitts led all tight ends and air yards last year. That seems shocking to me. He had the highest average depth of target, and yet his most yards gained on a single play was 39 yards. Whereas Jonu Smith, his own teammate, had multiple 50-plus yard plays.

It did come out that Kyle Pitt's knee surgery was more complex than people had originally estimated. I'm so thankful to hear that, not because he had to go through a more complex surgery, but because there's a reason he didn't look, he looked almost robotic at times. Like he didn't know how to pivot properly. And so this is a very, very young player. on a team where the majority of targets, like the highest percentage in the league, went to tight end last year. It didn't work out for Kyle Pitts. We're having the same discussion every single off season. So is there hope entering year four? I have my thoughts, but I want to hear from you guys. There's definitely hope because he's 23 years old. There's an offensive coordinator change. And Jono Smith had the big long plays, but they weren't air yard plays. I'm sick of seeing Kyle Pitts.

pretty much used exclusively 20 yards down the field. Where's just the regular tight end plays that all these, you know, when you watch David Najoku just get right, just, you're just running right across the field. You know, three yards in front of the line of scrimmage, just run across. That's where you need to get a talented athlete like Kyle Pitts involved. And the fact that they're, like if Arthur Smith was here this year, There's things I would like. I'd still like the running game. I'd still be on Bejan, but I'd be 100% out on Kyle Pitts. His utilization isn't right. I think that even with a bad quarterback, which I project they will have, even with a bad quarterback, if the way they use Kyle Pitts changes, he can be valuable. So I am. If you watched him last year? Oh, yeah. That was part of Tuba. That was part of the struggle.

I don't think those underneath routes were going to work because he couldn't get in and out of breaks without falling down sometimes. So getting him the ball in that intermediate space, maybe he's more healthy this year. So where do you land on your belief? I land on plenty of hope. Yes. I mean, we're coming off a year where we're heralding David Nogoku in year seven and Evan Ingram in year seven. Like young athletic tight ends, assuming he is healthy and able to get back to full health, he has elite skills. at the position that a lot of guys don't possess. And I think we can have more confidence in, you know, Rahim Morris and Zach Robinson on the offensive side of the football to hopefully use their weapons. You know, a lot was being made of the fact that Rahim Morris instantly named, you know, Drake London. Drake London and Bijon. Like, I've seen some follow-up discussions, including ones with Bejohn and...

them just talking about Kyle Pitts' utilization and the weapon, the special talent that he is. So hope, yeah, I'm not giving up hope. He's the tight at 11 right now in best ball. But again, remember, and I want to say this a couple times this offseason. We mentioned the best ball draft positioning because they're happening right now. Right. There's a lot of those going on. It is our best estimate of how people are valuing players. But there's also some variation in basketball compared to redraft leagues in the sense that You know, when you're in the middle of a best ball draft right now, Jason, when you take best ball players, you're also valuing some components that are different. Oh, for sure. Like upside. Like if Kyle Pitts, if you outlaid all the tight ends in football on a piece of paper with their lowest possible and highest possible seasons, you're drafting according to some of those highest possibles. You want yourself to have a chance at getting a top 10 tight end.

or I'm sorry, a top five tight end from the tight end 11th. Yeah, and it's not even exclusive to how they finish the season, but how big of weeks individually can they put up? Who has the ability at tight end to put up 100 yards, have a 70 yard touchdown despite, you know, obviously this last year that not seeming like Kyle Pitts's cup of tea. He certainly has that in the cards from what he was drafted to be. So yeah, best ball ADP is different. I do think next year, If he stays around there, if he stays around the last tight end drafted in your league, why not? I'll probably be, I'll be grabbing two tight ends, which I don't ever do. But if I can grab- John Yoo and Kyle. Exactly. If I can grab Pitts as my second tight-in at the very end of a draft, why not? See if they'll use them right. And if he has that breakup. And if not, cut bait and move on. Yeah, Zach Robinson did come out, their new offensive coordinator and talk about Pitts and Bijon specifically having formational.

versatility being able to move them around play both go both of those guys can be slot receivers for you yeah based on the formation so um no hope is not gone but we were a lot of the debate around Kyle Pitts is centered around you know projecting him to be a breakout in years past and I had a year I believed and I had a year I was more out than anybody last year so somewhere in the middle yeah don't give up hope quite yet he's he's too young if he looks the same next year, I'll be worried. That's fair. Because we didn't know a lot about what was going on. We just watched it and we were like, yeah. Yeah, hopefully they, with the new coaching staff and being a young, unsuccessful team, I would imagine you will see Kyle Pitts in preseason. And that will be, you know, he doesn't have to be involved for you to see how he's running a route and watch a couple plays and say, does he look like he used to look or does he look like he looked last year?

And it's easy to blame Arthur Smith for everything that's ever gone wrong, ever. It's so easy. It's pretty fun. Not only is it easy. It feels good. Yeah. But the truth is. Not listening. The truth is, is that no matter who your head coach is, if you are a dominant tight end, you're not losing the amount of snaps and opportunities to Johnny Smith that Kyle Pitts lost last year. So you want Pitts to take some of the blame? I think that he wasn't. He wasn't the player that he could have been, no. Okay. Regardless of Arthur Smith. All right, let's jump into the mailbag. Mailbag. Yeah. All right, our first question here. By the way, you can submit your question on the website, the fancy footballers.com or dial our voicemail hotline 302-464 TFFB. First question coming in says full PPR redraft league. Would taking CD number one overall be crazy? Yes.

Crazy? No. Overreactionary, probably. Why is it, why do you think it's crazy? Well, do you think that what happened down the stretch, the second half of the year, is the new normal for the Cowboys? I think that when Cooper Cup had a season most comparable to C.D. Lambs, he went number one the next year for many people. That's fair, but right now, you know, C.D. Lamb is not. When I've seen, when I've been in drafts, you know, I'm still seeing CD Lamb go like third at wide receiver. But we projected, and Mike, you predicted and talked about your second half sleeper being Dak Prescott in the middle of the year because of how bad the matchups the rest of the season were for running backs and how good they were for wide receivers and quarterbacks. And obviously that happened. And maybe that just created it to be the new normal.

But I think that was like Panical Peak. I don't think you're going to have a season of that level of fire that they were on. What is the is 2024. I still think he's going to be outstanding. Great. A number one, a top five wide receiver. But he's in the conversation where I wouldn't take him as the first wide receiver. And I'm, and I'm not taking any wide receiver over Christian McCaffrey. Would it be a somewhat shocking revelation to tell you that? His run was really from week six on? From week six on, 206 targets, 2,000 yards, 16 touchdown pace. So first five weeks were not special, but that's a good run. That's a 12-game run. The case for going with CD is buying into the evolution of the wide receiver. Maybe he took the next step because it's like Justin Jefferson, he.

He could have a huge quarterback problem, or he could have an old quarterback returning from an Achilles injury, and you're hoping that it's not actually a problem, and you hope Kirk Cousins is good to go. They resigned Kirk Cousins, which one are you drafting? Well, hold on, hold on. No, no, no, just between those two. This is Justin Jefferson. Okay. Yeah, I would too. But I'm not, but I'm saying, I don't think it's wrong. And then Jamar Chase, for how incredible the ceiling games Jamar Chase can have. Jamar Chase has way more games than Jefferson, where he just vanishes from the scheme. The Cowboys said we're doing it all exactly the same again. Yeah, maybe crazy is the wrong word. And if you are super confident, if you're out there listening to Mike talk and be like, yeah, see, there's questions here, there's questions there. You know, is, is Burrow really what he was a couple years ago after this injury is who's the quarterback?

You know, Christian McCaffrey's been injured two or three years. I didn't bring up Tyreek who, like, of these guys, Tyreek Hill may have the fewest actual questions. Yeah. Besides him being what? Older. He's 30 or 31. Just trying to. Tyrake is a freak of nature. Yeah. I mean, I think we would all probably go Jefferson and Tyreek ahead of Lamb. I would. I think so, yeah. All right. Scott in Edmonton, Alberta. Oh, bonjour. That's a, is that a real bonjour? That might be a hello. Oh, you know what I don't know, yeah. Although Edmonton, that's not in, uh, it's in Alberta. It's not, is that French country? I don't know. Quebec's French, right? It's, it's all French. No, it's not all French. Don't say that to our English is the official language of the province. Well, then Bonjourner. So it is Bonjour. Yes. Okay. Any Quebecans out there, you'll get a hello. What is your suggestion?

on dealing with people in Dynasty and Keeper leagues that refuse to even entertain a trade until the NFL rookie draft. Do I just move on from trying to trade with them or continue to send them offers that I might be overpaying in order to entice them to trade? You're not going to entice them. I think you move on. Yeah, you, if they won't even consider trying to trade, then don't try to trade with them. Yeah, man, don't. Because they're not going to consider it. Don't fight with a brick wall. This feels like they just want the sense of satisfaction of pulling one off with one of these teams, but then they're going to overpay for it. Some people just need a breath, man. I notice that in our leagues. Our leagues, you need a breath. It's perfectly fun. Yeah, and some people absolutely have a stance of, I am going to wait until I know where these players are going before I value any pick. And so if that's their stance, just do the same. Yes, because some people are more afraid of the embarrassment of...

failing at that trade now with the mystery. Yeah. They want to know more, which I don't blame, especially, it sounds like your guy has probably gotten a few done in this league. And it might have gone to your side. And then people become more gun shy. All right. Robert, Rich in Denver. Why do you guys hate Jerome Ford? He's steady, not sexy. He was a top 24 running back 11 times. I would imagine one of the views of hating Jerome Ford is that we didn't bring him up. at all in our running back truth episodes right we didn't talk about him he glossed over him because of nick chub yeah there's a forward glossing that happened so i look i don't think i hate him no he was he was good he was right home to mom i'm not he doesn't come up no there's nothing that like why do you love him so much he was very very serviceable he liked steady

He was very serviceable. He was important for fantasy. He had a stretch. He was giving you 10 points a week. He stepped up during the injury. That's very usable. I'm so proud of him. Yeah. But. He's got an expiration date. Yeah. I mean, he's the backup. And maybe Nick Chubb, like, yeah, I mean, our guys are bringing up that Nick Chubb could be a cut candidate. No, they're not going to cut him. I don't believe they're going to cut him. I mean, if they did, then yeah, let's talk about Ford. Sure. As the starter next year. But I think, you know, even if Chubb is still off the injury, is it four or five weeks of steady that you get? Maybe if you're lucky? And they were giving goal line away? I mean. I'll give you the context. So he would be a dead cap hit of only $4 million. Set to earn 15.8 would save $11.8 million if they were to.

cut him, they're not cutting him. I don't think they're cutting him. I think he's the Larry Fitzgerald of that. They'll overpay Nick Chub to keep him. And if they cut him, the reason they would have to cut him is because of Baltimore. That's true. And I don't think they want. I thought you said Baltimore. You said Baltimore. Voldemort is because of Deshawn Watson and the money they gave him. If they say, hey, uh, hero of this city. The Baltimore Ravens. Nick Chubb, you are out. I know you had a bad injury, and we are going to just do you dirty and cut you. It's because of Baltimore. I just don't think they can. That's bad. It's a massive PR hit, but he, okay, so third, he is the third highest running back cap hit of 2004. Then they'll restructure. They could go the restructure route, but he's going to be playing at the age of 29. Kyle, they'll have that right. Coming off that injury, I genuinely hope.

Because Nick Chubb is awesome. I hope it doesn't happen. But for how cold the NFL business is, it would not surprise me in the least. Look, I don't think they care about what his cap hit is relative to other running backs. It's just whether it fits with that team. And nobody works harder than Nick Chub to get back from injury. I'm betting on Chuck. Again, I hope you are right, but his cap hit is almost $16 million. I'd pay him $17. I mean, this. Conclusive. Breaking news. All right. Everyone needs to know this. Al Borland just watched finally for the first time in his life. He just watched the first two Harry Potter movies. Oh, hey. Nerd. I know who Voldemort is now. Oh my gosh. So when did those come out, by the way? I have no idea. Can we get a release date for the first one? The first was got to be what like I think I was working in a movie theater when they came out. Yeah.

It looks like 2001. What? So 23 years. Oh, man. Congratulations. I thought I was a young man. How old did you think they were? 10 years? No, I thought it was like, I thought it was in high school in the mid, you know? Yeah. It was so long ago. It had to be in the 1900s. Wait a minute. I know it was a long time ago. You're telling me a long time ago was 2001. So anyway, 23 years to read the books and he didn't do it. I don't know how Jason made it through the second one. I'm not there is a lot of spiders of fake looking spiders like I I am very very very very very afraid of spiders but bad CGI spiders they don't even bother me they don't bother you well congrats good CGI spiders they can give me have you seen Lord of the Rings none of those yet okay well we'll catch him up all right that is going to do it for today's episode of the show thank you for joining us brooksy what do we got going on on Thursday

We'll be answering more questions and we'll see what happens. Okay. All right. All right. I'm losing you. I can't hear the question. All right. We're still figuring Thursday out, everybody. We'll talk to you then. Thank you for joining us and check out the Dynasty show. It releases tomorrow. Goodbye, everybody. Have a save one. Goodbye. you for listening to another episode of the fantasy footballers podcast join our fantasy football community on join the foot dot com and follow us on twitter at the ffballers