Fantasy Football - Ultimate Draft Week + ADP Price Check! - Podcast for 4/21

People were all excited about, you know, you're my guy, right? Who's a my guy last year? Had that breakout looked like he was going to be the next Jemir Gibbs superstar to have him not in the top 20 at running back. But this is, I got to remember this. And we haven't revealed it. No, I know, I know, I know. I'm thinking of normal rankings, but I'm not considering, you know, an underdog. A lot of times you're swinging for the fences trying to hit the home run. Trevo is a home run. So yeah, I'll just say running back 20. So I'm at 19. You're at 20, Mike. Where do you want to go? I'll go running back. Oh, he finishes running back 18. I bet he's drafted around there. 18, 19, 20? I'm worried about Ramandre. You should be. You're worried that he's worried about the utilization. I'm worried that. He's going to sharpen him. That teams are just like, well, go on. So running back 20, I'm going to say that would be the fifth round. I'm going late fourth.

Yeah, I'll go with the fourth round. Go ahead and show me the ADP. Oh, yeah. 411. That is the RB20. Oh, he is 20. On the dot. RB 20 on the dot in the back of the 11th round. You win this time. I don't know. It's weird because like the prototype of Trayvon Henderson is to say he's a home run. Like there's this home run possibility. I don't see it in this offense. Like even if Ramandre's hurt, I think they'll utilize other guys. I don't think they look at Trayvon Henderson as a, like I don't look at him like Jamir Gibbs from a three down perspective. I don't think he has that. I don't think he's. I think he does. It's like the, the AJ Brown, I think it is happening. So then you're like, okay, more touchdowns. But do they give goal line work to Henderson or do they go back to Ramandre? It was the fact that he broke.

Talking about Henderson, the way he broke out in the middle of the season and towards the end. It was a true breakout. It was awesome. He was changing the game. And then they're like, yeah, but we still got Romandre. We like him. And so I don't know if heading into the sophomore year, if that will get totally flipped. If it gets flipped, then he's a steal at running back 20, which that's the decision you got to make when you're building your teams. Yeah, he's going to be a really interesting player this year because we know they're going to win a lot of football games. And you want young talent on really good football teams. And running backs get injured. I mean, this is one of those situations where when you are getting a really talented back in a timeshare, there is always the opportunity of an injury to the other party. You know, just like what happened in his rookie year when Ramandre got injured.

He was forced to be the guy, and here's what we know. I know you say you don't see him as a three-down bell cow. That is probably correct when we look at how are they going to utilize them? They're not going to force that. They have no reason to. But I do believe he can do it and will excel at it when given that opportunity. So an injury can always make that happen. That's the type of player I would want at running back 20. A couple interesting things about him, for him to be a top 10 guy. We were looking at those target total. Those would have to come up, I think. I mean, that nine-game stretch where he was really good. He was only on 45 target pace during those nine games. He's averaging about 16 opportunities a game. I don't know if he's a guy that would stay as efficient with as much, but he's explosive. He can break a long touchdown. He can catch the football. They just didn't do it as much. In fact, Romandre caught the ball a lot. So he's an interesting name for this upcoming year. Jalen Warren.

The ever disrespected. Yeah, and I just, my face says it all. It's like, it's how I feel too. This is, eh. He feels like Tony Pollard or something. He was the running back 16. He was the running back 16. He was the running back 16 while sharing time with Kenneth Gainwell, who led the team in receptions and is no longer there. And I'm very confident he's after Hindo. No one's drafting him ahead of Trayvian Henderson. No, I think, I think Janet Warren. You know, we've had 20 years with Mike Tallinn, right, where we've got to like see that grimace on his face and know what he's doing it running back. And it's a little. But we won't see it anymore. No, I know. I'm saying it makes it different. It makes it a variable like Mike McCarthy does he use. Do we get another one of his little Ezekiel Elliott committee years? Well, that's the one's the best player. He on their running back room in their running back room, right? Well, I don't know. Well, they got Rico. They got Rico. It's the, they got Caleb.

He's not factoring into the equation. It's Jail Horne versus Rico. It's the reunion of Mike McCarthy and Rico, which Rico Dada will break out year. If you are newer or you don't remember, it was the second half of the year with the Dallas Cowboys with Mike McCarthy. But then they dumped him. I know. I'm just saying it's all. Is it good to come back to McCarthy or bad? I think it's good for Rico? All right, Jalen Warren, running back 25. I'll go after that, man. I'm going to say 27. Yeah. When he said after that, I thought he said after that, I thought he was like, I thought he meant it like in a significant way, not like, whoa. I'll go one cent. It's the price is right rules, man. Well, I just sounded more like you were going to say 30 or something. Take 26. Man.

I wonder if him and Rieke are going right near each other's. I bet they are. I'm going to go running back 29. Yeah, so you're talking like a seventh, eighth round pick? Yeah. All right now he is going as. Oh, the running back 29. Running back 29. That's where Jason would have picked if he had more courage. 708. Oh, 25? I'm going way after that. Two spots. Hey, I was two spots away from being correct. You said he's 40 years old. He looks way older than that, 41. Jaylor Warren at RB 29. Does that? And Rico's at 31. And Rico's at 31. If I had to choose between the two, I feel like I'd want to go Rico. Eileen Rico as well. Because I feel like like Warren is kind of. I will stick with Jalen Warren. Usurpable. I mean, but so is Rico. Every team that he's been on, no matter how well he plays, he's never, whatever is happening in the locker room, we've seen it. It's kind of like when you talk about.

Kenneth Walker, you're like, I'm not sure how it's going to fail, but it just always does some way, whether it's you're healthy and you get Charbonade, whether it's your great, but you can't stay healthy. We've had year after year after year after year where we see flashes, it just doesn't work out. That's Rico. Always a bridesmaid. Yeah. I mean, it's like, no matter, he's had these unbelievable stretches where you're like, this is a top tier running back. You had a thousand yards and yet teams just are like, he does not matter to us at all. Two-year $12.5 million for Rico. Okay. Are you asking? I'm saying that that's what it was. So this will be a good example. So we talk about ambiguous backfields for a strategy because you don't know what to do here. You're like, Jalen Warren, Rico, do I really want anyone on the Pittsburgh Steelers? And the answer is based off of their cost. Yes, you 100% do.

you'll we'll we'll we'll track this you know stick with the show we'll track this over training camp with the the drum beat who who's getting the buzz of like they're the more likely neither will move up enough in the draft to make them too expensive right and you brought up in the um just the tips yeah we did last off season eight and a half teams on average per year have lacked a top 24 drafted running back in fantasy. Totally makes sense. Those numbers make sense. Yeah, eight to nine teams have nobody that's being drafted in the top 24 at the position. Yeah, it makes sense from a math perspective. I'm just saying, like, from an opportunity perspective, you know, I think losing Tomlin gives me a little bit less confidence that they will be, you know, consistent the way they've always been. But Mike McCarthy's kind of the other example of that type of guy where, like, McCarthy shows up and people play pretty hard. The follow-up to that is.

five players from those teams on average per year jump into the top 24 and the follow up of that oh there's not this is my step no this was your stat was that you tried to pick the ones on oh yes often yes that's how we we've had a lot of success the last couple years picking like uh javanti yes last year last year it was disgusting but we it was disgusting it was like okay but you you know the cowboys are probably going to have a good offense. So you take maybe someone wanted whoever the rookie was blue last year or you choose Giovante, but you want to take one of those ambiguous backfields from a good offense. The question now for Jalen Warren, for Rico Dowdell is, I mean, first of all, who's the quarterback is right now Aaron Rogers is not. Will Howard right now reporting that he's now. I love that it was reported before this like they expect to know by the draft.

And now it's just being reported like, oh, they're not going to know by the draft. It's like, yeah, because we're a week from the draft and you don't know. It's so wild. I don't, even if Aaron Rogers comes back, I would not put this as a, like, as a really good offense, as a top half offense. So TBD. We'll take a break and then we'll talk about Jaylon Warren of the wide receiver position. Christopher Godwin, the goblin. Where are we with this guy at this point in time? He's, you know, most of the year was deleted. He missed a lot of time with an ankle and a fibula injury that it didn't seem like he'd recover from. And he did. And he had one or two games that were kind of all right. And it was in a year where Mike Evans was banged up and Abuka took off. And you got Jim and Millenback and Tess Johnson had games. And Kate Otten was relevant at times. Like there are a lot of pass catching options. He is not.

a spring chicken anymore. And yet Chris Godwin has value for fantasy, doesn't he? I mean, he should, but he's 30 years old and he missed so much of last year coming off of that injury. Yeah, but he played at the end of it. He did play at the end. So you know, you know, he also missed almost all of the previous year. Yeah, but the, you know, that injury that took him out for, you know, the second half of last year and the first half of this year, right before that injury, he was averaging over 16 fantasy points a game.

Now Mike Evans is gone. The opportunity for him to come in and maybe even be the one still exists on this team. Man, he feels like an 86 reception for 870-yard guy this year to me. Like I- At age 30, I tend to agree with you. I don't want him. I'm going to put my ADP guess at wide receiver 34. I'll go wide receiver. 41 and I'm going to say that's the ninth round. Mike? I'm going to go in the middle. Surprise. I was trying to remember what you said. 34. Oh, 38. All right. He is the wide receiver 43. Okay. In the eighth round. I feel like this is not a ceiling draft selection. So this is where it gets tough. This is where you'll be picking Chris Godwin or a rookie that.

You don't know how they might emerge. Like, I don't know if I'm going to draft him. To me, Godwin still feels like, depending on how many fantasy football leagues I'm in, let's say I'm in five leagues. I'm going to make sure I have Godwin on at least one or two of those teams. Like, Abuka's going to be the hotness. And it chasing youth, especially youth, like a young NFL player who already had a breakout, Which I, do we could, did the Bucca break out? Yes. Okay. So you follow that. He broke right back in. Let me in. He broke into the jail cell and pulled the door closed. Okay. So Abuka is going as a wide receiver 17. That makes complete sense for the situation that they are in. But as like I said, if I have multiple, multiple teams, I think there is a chance that Godwin is.

easily the best wide receiver for fans. Yeah, if it's what I said a minute ago, he still has the opportunity with Evans out of the way to be the wide receiver one for Baker Mayfield for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. If a Bucca, like that couldn't find over the second half, Baker just couldn't connect no with Abuka. Baker can connect with Chris Godwin. They know with New England. Right. Yeah. I think that's a good comp, a quality wide receiver. who's going to be in the right spot and do the right thing for a veteran quarterback and Baker. And that's not always great for fantasy. I'm shaking my head, move into this next name because, you know, on our website, we have, you know, we have the game log for these players. And, you know, you see the games that are top 24 finishes, top 12 finishes. They're green. Anything in that middle tier, wide receiver three range, they're yellow. And then the red games are these bust games.

for our consistency charts. Just looking at this. Red means stop. We want you to stop doing that. Stop, stop it. Brian Thomas Jr. for Jacksonville, this is a game log that is horrific and terrifying for where he was drafted and what you saw from him. There's a lot more green on Parker Washington's game log. The Jags are hilarious. I don't know if you, if you tuned into last week's footcast. We were talking about Travis Hunter. You know, the reports come out. He's going to be a full-time DV part-time wide receiver. And right now, in Dynasty, people are, they're trying to flip Travis Hunter. And Andy got an offer. I got an offer for Travis Hunter. I met, did you get an offer, Jay? I did not. Okay. You were lucky. Lucky. But these were like, it's like, how do you not want Travis Hunter? The number two overall pick. And at the end of everything,

Andy didn't trade for him. I didn't trade. No, and I got more offers over the weekend and we just didn't quite get saying. And then you got Brian Thomas Jr. You're like, do I want Brian Thomas? But the Jags are going to be a top tier offense. They're going to be really good. They're going to be fantastic. And we're looking at the wide receivers like, ooh, I don't. Here's what so. I don't know who I want. What's so weird about weird. Like you said certifiably that a Bucca broke out. Yes. Which then of course Brian Thomas Jr. broke out. Oh, for sure. He had a.

Didn't he finish as the wide receiver seven his rookie year? His final six games of the season. And I know it was Mack Jones and some Trevor Lawrence. But to be clear, are you talking about the rookie year? What we were drafting on. Here's what we were drafting on. A pace of 127 for 1714. 14 touchdowns. So 200 targets, 127 receptions, 1700 yards, 14 touchdowns. That was his final six weeks. And then we're like, Now figure out where to draft him in the draft, and he went super high. He was in the conversation with Malik Neighbors as far as, like, after that rookie year was like he is, was he just as good as his college teammate? And it's almost, you can't even think like that anymore after this bust of a sophomore season. You can't remember how good Brian Thomas Jr. was as a rookie, but he did that. He did that in the NFL. And he did it without Jacoby Myers or Travis Hunter or Parker, Washington surrounding him.

with a different quarterback. And I, it's really hard to look at Brian Thomas and be like, I think he's just going to settle into mediocrity as for his career. But that's how it feels right now. I don't feel like there's margin for anything remarkably close to those numbers in this offense when you have those other names. They just gave a huge contract to Jacoby Myers. Parker Washington has emerged. I think Travis Hunter plays offense. To me, Brian Thomas Jr., again, this is not a discussion about what he's going to do. This is where he's being drafted. I think he's being drafted as the wide receiver in the 20s. 20. No, maybe not. Golly. Yeah, 26. I'll go 26. I'm going to go 26. What do you? Dang. You can go 26. That was the number. Yeah, that was the number. Yeah. I'm with you. I think he's wide receiver 26. Yeah. You've still got a lot of hope, a lot of youth, a lot of extreme athleticism. And we've talked about this in the past as well. It is.

often a good bet when you can get a discount and you're looking at the guys that are going falling in drafts there's always a reason right oh the quarterback play the talent the age the whatever and then you've got to write the path forward but the paths when we look back at the players who dropped and then went outstanding just rebounded in one fantasy leagues A lot of times they have done it before. Chris Godwin was one of these people once before in his career. Cooper Cup was one of those players where it was like we have seen them be great before they got injured or they struggled or whatever and they were done with them. And then Cooper Cup was the number one wide receiver in all of fantasy. So I think Brian Thomas Jr. can get back. And so 26 for me and Jason. What do you got, Mike? I'll go 24. The answer is the wide receiver 31. Yeah. Oh my gosh.

He is still being drafted head of Parker Washington, who's wide receiver 35. Jacobi Myers, who's wide receiver 41. I'm assuming Travis Hunter is nowhere to be found. Oh. Wide receiver 64. So that is. I mean, if I take a shot on one of those guys. He's the most complete package of the group. I definitely take the shot on Brian Thomas Jr. How can you have an offense that good in no one being drafted in the top 30 wide receiver? There is gold in the heels, boys. I mean, that's like my guy calling your name, Jay, Brian Thomas. Nice truck. I almost said it for me, but it's more you. I know what you're saying. We're talking about these ambiguous. It works both in the wide receiver core and in the running back room, you want a good offense.

and you don't know where it's going to come from. This is a wide receiver group that you're like, well, there's too many mouths to feed here. I'm not sure who could break out. So we're going to draft none of them, except if you say one of these guys, Brian Thomas Jr. Parker, Washington, Jacoby Myers was going to be a top 15 wide receiver in fantasy. BTJ. Of course it's going to be Brian Thomas Jr. What if I told you that after the biweek, so we're talking in weeks nine through 18, This is for a football season. That's a decent sample. There's no Travis Sonsor because he got, he was already hurt. The target share. Jacobi, 21%. Parker, Washington, 21%. Brenton Strange, 16%. Oh, Brian Thomas Jr. I don't know if you're doing the math. We're running out of targets. We're running out of percent. We're running out of time. 15. Yeah. And he moved, I mean, he was not running. This is a different offense, different head coach, different coordinator. Well, I was saying the year before to have.

They have the buy week, and they go, we're, and because weeks one through seven, Brian Thomas was the dominant. So here's why that, here's why I think this, this happened midseason. I don't blame them at all for making that transition. Because he was stinky. Because the first seven weeks up to the by week, he was on target for a hundred and thirty three targets. Great. He was, like you said, the market share was great. He was everything we wanted in fantasy, except. He caught less than half of those balls. He was 49% catch rate. It was ruining drives. Okay. Now let me also add this. And so they go into the biweek and they're like, we got to fix this. Right. And then they're like, hey, this is the new plan moving forward. And then they go eight and one. So now they go to the off season. And they get to do anything they want. I am because there is a non zero chance that he's traded on Thursday. Ooh. I that's.

that i think he stays on the team i mean i oh again i'm not i'm not saying the odds are that that happens i'm just saying there's been enough smoke for a year and a half you can't be the inside of those like don't be shocked oh yeah if this happens you're like i'm not an is it going to happen no but don't be shocked but and remember i said don't be shocked i think that there's a there's room for this team you just made the case why they can succeed without him that's what you just did it's like it

because they can use Travis Hunter who they didn't have. That will be a very wild mystery to solve this offseason. Real quick here, let's do one more name. Just guess the ADP of where Colston Loveland is going right now. Oh, too low. I'll tell you that much. Am I right, Jay? Maybe. I was pointed at day, huh? I don't know. Mr. Loveland himself. I'm going to say he's the tight end. Uh, three. Three. Yeah, as much as we all love Colston Loveland, you can't draft him over McBride or Bowers. No, but I think he's the next man up. And let's put him. Depending on Daniel Jones. I still think I might go Tyler Warren over him, but yeah, I probably. Stop this nonsense. It's not nonsense, man. He was, he was great. They were both great. They could both be great. No, they can't. There could be only one. What round? Colson Lovelin's going, uh, I'll say third round.

I think it'll be, I think it'll be lower. I still think, think three, but yeah, late, late fourth. All right. Where are we with Colston Lovin? Right now he is the tight in three going in the way. Whoa, too low. I told you. Fourth round. But still the tight in three. I think that's appropriate. I think that's if you really look at inappropriate. That's like Mr. Likeland. Yeah. That's not good enough. Get on board people. At the fourth round. There's a dog in the back of the fourth waiting for you with a lot of. with a lot of good talent. I'm with you, Mike. Let's ride. I'll be going elsewhere. I'll be grabbing a running back or a wide receiver. It's funny because I have, for those of you that follow along with our league of record and what we do in that league, we have a keeper lottery. You have one franchise player and then you have three players that go into a keeper lottery. They can't match the position group of the franchise player. And then when the draft's over, we're going to find out what players going back. My three keepers.

are Amarine Hampton. This is your lottery. Yeah, my lottery. Amarine Hampton, Kenneth Walker, and Colston Loveland. And so by all measures, I want to lose Loveland in that draft. Yeah, that makes sense. Except what about the measure of your heart? The measure of my heart wants that dog on my team. I want that dog. Well, the good news is I can just draft him, though. You won't be too disappointed then. Yeah, I think that puts me in a better spot if I'm, you know, having to give back a running back. But, oh gosh, I got to lock in my keepers.

Do you have any? Yeah. Oh, that's good. You got good ones? You got good? I got some good good. Why don't you share? I got some good good. By the way, I think my franchise is going to be Malik neighbors, I think. Oh, man. Dance with the devil. But if I get shaky, you know, shaky legs by the end of this draft, maybe I mix it up. Maybe I. You don't have very long. I know. That's, well, here's Saturday. Here's what shaky legs would be. They draft. They, they draft Jordan Tyson. They're draft. They will draft one of the three. I know. And I think it's, I think it's Tyson. Well, maybe Hampton becomes some franchise. I don't know. I don't know. This is, this is why the draft is why we do this after the draft. Mm-hmm. It's because we, we don't want to, uh, force somebody to make those picks. Give Tyler Shuck and Jackson Dart. We weapons. One of them. Weapons. One of them. I think I've got to, I think I've got to risk Jonathan Taylor. Oh.

So, what do you think your, what do you think your setup's going to be? So, uh, yeah. My, my, my team right now. Okay. So this is work, work out some personal problems. Um, my two best players are, are C.D. Lamb and Jonathan Taylor. Okay. Right. So one of those could be a franchise. Right. Um, then my other players, I've got Josh Jacobs. Travis E. T. N. Uh, what's that? Oh, Travis H. A. J. J. J. And I guess David Montgomery. Or as I call him. Rambalaya. Rumbalaya. Does that make you want to keep him more? It does make you want to keep more. I would much rather have Rambalaya at lunch the other day. And I was like, this is fantastic. Rambalaya is better than learning his name. And then I've got. And then I've got, uh, I've got so dumb. I've got Chris Olave and Roma doonese. So it feels like my strength is at the running back. Yeah, you got to go see you I am and three running back. You got to try to get a run. I mean.

a pair of running backs. You're not going to be that unhappy in any combo. I'll be pretty unhappy if I lose Jonathan Taylor. Mm-hmm. Okay. Mike's got CMC. I will. My three for those are Bejohn, McCaffrey, and Chase Brown are my three lottos. One of those is not like the other. The draft could be. What are you three? Bejohn, Christian McCaffrey, Chase Brown. So our draft could have Bejohn and Johnny Taylor in there. Please have you cannot lose Chase Brown. i will be so upset what you got out what are you got out who's what's your situation who's my franchise oh jimarchs yeah my franchise more than likely it'll be tray mcbride franchised drake london garrott wilson and quinchon judkins hmm okay okay that's a good franchise uh do we got one more dude in the office papa josh let's hear it