Early WR Rankings Countdown: 20-11 + Dynasty Download - Fantasy Football Podcast for 4/9

We are talking through a bunch of important wide receivers on today's show. We've got a dynasty download. And most importantly, a gigantic announcement you don't want to miss. Make sure you subscribe and enjoy. To the Fantasy Footballers podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Oh, welcome in. The Fantasy Footballers. Back at it, April 9th.

Looks like the world did not end. Was it supposed to end with the eclipse? I don't know. The eclipse is, I think so. I think every eclipse is supposed to end the world. It stopped all photosynthesis. But the next one, the next one, watch, watch out. I didn't get a lot of that. It just was, it's just like captivating everybody. It does seem a very classic American take because this was a. North American eclipse. They did call it. If any eclipse is going to ruin the earth, it's going to be our eclipse. And there is not another eclipse for another 22 years. I think for us. But yeah, it's just for us. There's totally more eclipse. But just not my America. I think the next American eclipse only crosses Alaska. Oh, really? So maybe there'll be like a big boon in Airbnb's up there. I don't think we even consider that.

Part of the... Yeah, like, I know the technicality. It seems like... There's a lot of Alaskan listeners offended right now. Contiguous US will be August 22nd, 24. It does say contiguous. And this is North Dakota and Montana. Okay. Yeah, maybe it's the one after that. But I know that people were very excited. It was very fun. Um... So, and it, uh, it came and it went. And they did see, I did see it posted the great American eclipse is what it was, I'm not joking. I saw that in a news story, the great American eclipse. It's ours. It's, it's, it's the best one. Anybody's, anybody's eyes feel worse. Slightly? Yeah, like, just a little bit. I had those 99-sick glasses that protect you, but. Well, that's a lot of, it's a lot of trust you put into like, uh, some.

random Chinese manufacturer. Yeah. Oh, that's how. Oh, no. That's how they win the Cold War. They blind us all? I did see a day of a one. Jason getting real political. But it was, there was a recall. There was like. Don't use this brand. Well, at least they found out first. I mean, let me ask you this, Jay. When you close your eyes, what do you see? I just see like a circle. Two circles. I see the Cheshire cat smile. Well, whether you can see or not, we are counting down our early wide receiver rankings on today's show. I'm going to count it down from number 20 on our consensus, early rankings, right? I mean, it is.

Very early. It is pre-draft rankings. But who doesn't love a rankings show? No, they're fun. And there is a difference here between how the rankings are made and kind of what they mean. So, for instance, when I'm doing these really early rankings, it's a matter of kind of who would I draft. I try to take that approach like each one, like if I'm on the clock. Would I draft this guy or would I draft that guy? Not necessarily where I think they will finish. Like when we stack guys out in the ultimate draft kit, this is like where we project that if everybody hits their most probable outcome, that's where they will end. And it feels like a different practice and an important practice to do it this way. Yeah, it's a way to get a lay of the land, your first glance at what 2024 might look like. And so we've put all of our rankings together and we'll be counting them down on today's show.

The Ultimate Draft Kit is available right now. UltimateDraftKit.com or rather the Dynasty Pass is available right now. This is your pre-order chance for the UDK. It's one of the most fundamental keys to getting ready for your draft, setting that foundation for your team, and you can learn more about the Dynasty Pass and the UDK at Ultimate draft kit.com. Counting an announcement. That's my God of announce. Allow me to announce. Our announcement. This is huge. Well, I didn't. We've been teasing you. I've been saying we have big plans for the draft. And I didn't just mean the food we're going to order while we watch the draft. Which will be plentiful. Yes. Instead, I meant, well, I wanted to share this, but we weren't allowed to share until right now. The thing I'm about to share. Any minute. No, we are doing a very, very special first time ever.

Fantasy Footballers Draft Special. It will be live. It will be on NFL Plus, and it will be starting right towards the very end of round one. Thursday, April 25th, it will be our live and unique reactions to round one and how it impacts fantasy football. Yeah, the first time that the NFL media conglomerate is actually doing a fantasy, you know, featured. reaction to the first round of the NFL draft, and we get to participate in that on NFL Plus. I'm so excited. It's going to be great. So your NFL draft day just got better. Yeah, that's true. Please come hang out with us. It's going to be a lot of fun. And, yeah, it's, I mean, the draft is so close. We are, yeah, just mere weeks away.

and going to live. I mean, the fact that it's live is going to be fun. The fact that it's on NFL Plus is just kind of a little cherry on top. So extremely excited for it. Yeah, it's going to be a blast. In previous years, we've done some live reaction stuff kind of, you know, the day after round one. Yeah, that's for cowards. No, this is going to be fresh. Instant reaction. Instant. And then we do have a quick question today. Dynasty Download. One of the dumbest questions I've ever seen. I'm going to be honest. Philosophically, this could actually be one of the dumbest questions we've ever seen. But we'll discuss. The question comes in, it says, how do you know in your dynasty team can't compete anymore? Do I sell? I have no idea. Because you've never been there. That's what we're saying here. I mean, that's,

The question says your dynasty. My dynasty team always competes. So we our, our, our dino league has been, what are we at eight years, nine? Somewhere around there. And Andy's team has never been in rebuild mode, ever. I have torn down to the nubs once. I've never torn down to the nubs. I, I had one year where I traded a couple pieces to get younger. But that was it. You began a process. Yeah, but like you took. Yeah, but it was one year. But it's still, it's, that's a teardown. You can rebuild over one year. You, you made the decision at one point in time. I remember it because you said it out loud. You said, I can't win the championship this year. I'm going to forego a playoff run. You gave up playoffs one year. And you rebuilt. I mean, you have Bejean and Breeze Hall. You don't get those guys without that approach. Yeah. And I will say that.

So I guess the answer to this question when we're not just joking and we're saying like, you know, for me, when did that process exist? It was mid-season, you know, because, you know, I think if you know before the season that like your team just flat can't compete, you're not asking this question. This is a question. You already know. Yeah, you already know. You're like, you've got nothing. Nobody wants to trade for any of your assets. You're going to be in it for the long haul. I think. primarily most dynasty managers might not know when and for me in my experience the only time that i did make that decision was when it looked like the playoffs aren't going to happen for me this year and so because of that's like i'm i'm out of the running let me focus now shift before the trade deadline to focusing for next year so i think it's very important though since your team is being brought up to

to let people know in the dynasty community that it's not necessarily this multi-year rebuilding process all of the time. You know, I see this so much. People like they'll unload everything. And then the process has to take multiple years. Like there is a, I don't know, like a shortcut to a rebuild that's possible with a team as well. And, you know, you don't, I mean, to answer the question, do you know whether your dynasty team, can compete, there is a point when you're not sure. Like Jason went into that year going, maybe, and then like halfway through. It's like, no. So, I mean, there is some discovery there. And to Jason's point earlier, like if you know for a fact you can't compete earlier in the season, you're not asking this question. And I think if you're not entirely sure, then you should err on the side of you can compete. I've seen in a lot of different leagues people that have a team that can compete.

and they they ruin their chances at a title because they're like I'm not talking about anyone in this room are you no I mean Papa Josh definitely did it okay but it's not just focused on his idiocy he was an idiot but that was I'm talking about a broader spectrum of like you do see it a lot where people are like they're him and and hawn and I think sometimes it's just fun you know I I wonder that was the itch for Josh, Papa Josh, if it was like, I think it would be fun to tear it down. For me, fun is in championships. Sure. I think when you're looking at your roster, you have to have at least a few impact players where like if you just have a whole bunch of steady players on your team and you don't have someone on that roster in your starting roster, I would say at least two where it's on any given week.

These can be the guys who can just take over, and if they go off, I win. Because in my opinion, if you don't have those, and that's also in redraft, if you don't have a few of those types of players, then when you get into the playoffs, you can't win. Let me ask you this, though. You are, you know my team in Dynasty. I have an older team. Christian McCaffrey, Josh Allen, but then, you know, Mostert, Camara, Evans, Lockett, Keenan Allen, Kelsey. Did I, in your opinion, did I wait too long? In your opinion, if you were me, like last year, this team outscored everybody else in the league by hundreds of points, but nobody wants those players now. I mean, even McCaffrey to a degree, like people aren't. Right. I'm not getting offers of like the world for McCaffrey. So did, if no one wants those players, is that past that point for you?

So if I were you, I would have done the same thing because your team was absolutely good enough to win a title and you've got to go after that title. If you're always trying to play that game of, well, I want to get younger. I mean, it's always good to stay good and get younger when you can. But when you are really, really close to a dynasty, that's when you need to be a buyer, not a seller or to a championship. And you had a very good team, unfortunately for you, fortunately for everyone else. You did not win the championship.

Um, you know, and eventually, for Mike, eventually you're going to be holding the back. Like Mike and I's co-managed team is, the answer to this question is when they all retire at the same time, which our roster is going to do it about three years. I'd say the hard part, like especially for Andy's team, what, what you will have to navigate the challenge is because your team is so old and you have, and you are always kind of on that verge of. Should I go for it or should I not? And the way that you play, you have no draft picks. Correct. So there could be a masterful move up your sleeve that you just don't know about it right now. But there's also the possibility that you make one more run for it and it completely falls apart. And now you have no, you have all old players and you have no picks. So rebuilding is like it is far away. You can compete.

for nine straight years. I did it. That's, I mean, for some people, they think that you have to reset along the way, at least so far I haven't paid the tax bill. Nope, not yet. I've been told I will. So we'll find out. All right. We're going to jump into the rankings right now. We don't have any. Oh, we do have a bit of news. Just one quick bit of news. So if you joined us for our surprise Saturday show, it was a surprise live on Friday. It was a ton of fun. Thank you, everyone, for coming in here. During the show, we were getting live, more updated information about the Rishi Rice situation and that he had a certain amount of marijuana in the car. And what was being reported was in Texas, this will end up being a felony. That was misreported so that what was in his car is just a misdemeanor. So that there is a difference. There is a pretty big difference in punishment from the NFL. So we just want to make sure that we got that information after we were done with the show.

and just passing it along. I believe we're talking about them on today's show as well. So let's jump into it. Wide receivers. All right, as I said at the top, we're counting it down from 20 to 11. Half PPR rankings. That's what we based it off of. And we'll talk about the range of outcomes for these players. This is the way that they ended up in our very early rankings. This is not the rankings that we have in the ultimate draft kit. Those will come out after we. after the NFL draft and after we stat out every player from every team like we do every single year. But this will be a quick overview sharing some positives about these players, some concerns, range of outcomes, and then we'll get to the top 10 on Thursday. But at number 20, DJ Moore, who will be playing at 27 this year. His best ball average draft position right now is 15, so we've got them a little bit below that for redraft.

Jason is the lowest right now at 24. I have him at 21, Mike at 18. And last year he was the wide receiver 6. So all of us are staring down that spectacular fantasy finish and saying maybe a bit of Fool's Gold. It was difficult to know when you could play him last year because he had such humongous games. To that degree, just to speak to his humongous games, his top three performances. accounted for just under 100 fantasy points. On the course of the entire season, he scored 238 fantasy points. So that just shows you, okay, you won those three weeks, but he had a lot of duds that, you know, were actively hurting your team. Obviously finishes the wide receiver six. So, you know, if you're in best ball, you've got a ton of those points.

added to your roster. It was an absolutely great pick in baseball. But I think it was a rough process if you had him knowing when you could start him and hopefully, you know, I mean, he was in your lineup most every week. So you're going to start him, but you're taking a lot of L's. And it's a completely different team. This will be a rookie quarterback throwing him the ball. Maybe Caleb Williams is CJ Stroud. I would put my bet against that. And then I'm in, as you guys are talking, trying to go through the Rolodex here. Like, has DJ Moore played in his career ever with another really, really strong wide receiver? Like he will be playing with, uh, with Kenan Allen. Like Keenan Allen, to me, it will be the far and away the best wide receiver he's ever had to compete for targets with. Yeah, for context last year, because DJ Moore had 136 targets, uh, the second wide receiver, uh,

target leader was Darnell Mooney with only 61. I mean, their fourth wide receiver head was Chase Claypool. He did play with a great one. Yeah, baby. Devin S. Scrubches. Devin Funches? Well, his rookie year was Funches in Curtis Samuel. Okay. I thought you were going to bring up Christian McCaffrey. I was where to be like, okay. That's a, that's a fair point. But the point being rookie quarterback, another number one, maybe a rookie number one coming up with the draft. D.J. Moore is. a really volatile pick here but he is a he's a great player yeah he's this was not it wasn't fluky that he finally had a breakout he is a stud and i want it clear like i've got him down at wide receiver 24 i'll talk about why it's it's really the combination of keenan allen and a rookie quarterback those those two reasons make me a little bit skeptical but obviously he's a super talented athlete can um help you win weeks and if they get him

you know, open in space a little bit more as defenses don't have to completely focus on him. It could be a really, a really good thing for him. But we talk a lot on this show about rookie quarterbacks and how the support of their number one wide receiver historically has been really, really bad. It's rare for them to have a top 24 wide receiver. But we wanted to update this. You know, things have changed and it brings up all the time, like the last few years. you know, the NFL is always changing. And when you look at too long of a timeline, you get outdated information. So we kind of updated our study here. What is this? Yeah. What is this? Welcome to new information. I feel like this could be a setup to dunk on me, but go on. It might be. Teams are certainly letting rookie quarterbacks throw the ball more. From 2011 to 2018, eight of the 25 rookie quarterback.

quarterback led teams were in the top half. So that's like 32% of those quarterbacks were top half and passing. Since 2019, 10 of the 14 are top half. So 71%, almost the exact opposite. Wow. So they are letting rookie quarterbacks throw the ball more. Their completion percentage has gone up from 58.9% to 62.6%. So those are really good. Yeah, but give me fantasy numbers. Yeah. And so. So. The wide receiver floors are higher than 2019. Rookie quarterbacks are sustaining more wide receiver 24 through wide receiver 36 production. So that's still not like those aren't great fantasy football league winning numbers. But the floor has raised a little bit with rookie quarterbacks. I still worry about ceiling. I mean, I've still got DJ Moore 24. Do you have the names, though, the wide receivers?

I can grab it. Because I'm thinking through it. Part of it, part of the equation is going to be, yeah, maybe they're throwing a bit more. You're going to need a massive target share, though. Where DJ Moore with Keenan Allen, is anybody, maybe both of them are just like taking all the targets like the Miami Dolphins and then it's okay. I've got a big question. Maybe this will help. Okay. What if Minnesota had the number one pick? How would you view Justin Jefferson? with Caleb Williams being the dudes. If he was their quarterback, he would probably be. Would you? He'd be in the top five wide receivers. He would not be the number one. Isn't he in the top five right now? Yeah. Not for me. Oh, I don't, I don't think he's in my top five. I think he's outside of it. I guess I just wonder if how much of it is trust in DJ more of the talent versus trust in that. You know, if it was Justin Jefferson, do you trust that more like to demand the target show? Like, you know Justin Jefferson, we'll get it. Yes. With a rookie.

The question will be whether DJ Moore can when you have Cole commit, Keenan Allen, you know, DeAndre Swift will catch the football. And, you know, that's kind of why we have him ranked where he's ranked. Yeah, I get it. Obviously, DJ Moore's great. He's no Justin Jefferson. DJ Moore, since his rookie year, has not finished outside the top 24 at wide receiver. So he's got that kind of good baseline. It was the McLaurin until last year of just always around 20. And he's done it with. poor quarterback play. So if Caleb Williams comes in and is allowed to throw more, which it seems like modern day NFL is allowing you to do that, then it could work out really well for you. What's the stat with Chicago? Don't they have like, they've never had a 4,000 yard passer ever. It's something insane like that. I don't know if it's 3,500. I think it's 4,000, but that's just wild. That is wild. I'm unfamiliar with that stat, but even just 4,000, if that's what it is, that seems.

Darn near Impos. Kyle will dig up the leading passer in the history of the Chicago Bears and send that to me. His name is Eric Kramer with 3,838 yards. Wow. That's your, that's your like benchmark. So let me ask you this. He will not. Is Caleb Williams the best quarterback they've ever? Not like will he be. Yeah, I mean, we'll find out, well, it depends on how you define best, I guess. Yeah, I mean, the most prolific, it probably will be. The Jim McMahon people. Yeah, that's why I said that. They're not, they're not listening here. Let's be honest, they know one coming here. No one's coming here with a pitchfork over Jim McMahon. All right, all right. We'll take a break. Come back with number 19. Number 19, finished at wide receiver 34 last year. Just 25 years old.

hugely disappointing season in fantasy production. I have them the highest at 17. Jason at 21, Mike at 19. It's Jalen Waddle of the Miami Dolphins. 72 for 1004. Played 14 games, limped off the field and all of them. 14 of them. I mean, it was kind of a running joke. He Paul pierced every single game. He would limp off. You'd be like, oh, no. And then he'd come back and... It's definitely not 100% the rest of those games. But coming off of a big fantasy production year, obviously it was great for Tyreek last season, but he went from number 7 to number 34. And points per game went down, targets went down. Ironically, it seems kind of funny to me because we know how good Jalen Wattle really is. Jailen Wattles' targets have dropped three consecutive years. He peaked as a rookie. In totality, yeah.

As opposed to like last last year 14 games 104 targets 14 games where in last and then 2022 and 17 games 117 targets. I'm just saying give him three more games and he's going to be right around that 117 mark if not higher. Okay. That's all I mean. It's just a fun fact, Mike. You don't need to break it down. Well, this is part of my argument for Jalen Waddle that. He had a higher catch percentage than his sophomore season. He actually had a higher target share this year than his sophomore season by a couple points. I just, I think it was a weird outlier year for Jalen Waddle. And perhaps while Tyreek is there, the hopes and the dreams of when he was the wide receiver seven of it, like here comes the new, Debo Samuel is not the right archetype, but that.

player, you know, with McDaniel coming over, we're going to feed this guy. That ceiling is gone, but I think that it was just a very bizarre season for Jalen Wattle that he will have a bounce back from. To the tune of range of outcomes for him. To the tune of being back, back to being a solid wide receiver too. All right. Jason, you haven't met the lowest of the three of us. It's all really close together. Obviously, you know. You know, this is not really 1A, 1B. This is, Tyreek is the 1A plus. Tyreek is the 1A. I've got him the lowest because I had him in experience. I think this is, you know, this is. You're mad. This is just the experience. He's got a consistency rating in his last 17 games played of a C, basically scoring 10.5. Half PPR points only 41.2% of the time.

So it's been a bad experience. The one thing that I could say in his, you know, if I'm defending him with hopes and dreams of brighter days, obviously we've seen it two years ago where he was great. And in that, he played on average 74% of the snaps. This last year, while he was struggling with every game injuries, he was down to 68% of the snaps. So. It leads me to conclude, like I don't think that they want Jalen Wattle on the field sub 70% of the time. That wasn't how they used them a couple of years ago, and I expect if he's healthy and doing well, he will be better for fantasy. Does he have the potential to be a wide receiver one in your book?

Yeah. Potentially, yes. If it worked out the right place? I think so. Because of his athleticism, the game breaking speed and over the top touchdowns, he could absolutely finish. And if DJ Moore or Wada was your wide receiver 2, who would you be more comfortable with? That's an interesting question. That is a really good question. With, at wide receiver 2, do you swing for the fences and hope that DJ Moore is incredible? I think Jalen Waddle is such a safer pick for a bounceback. I could. To me, Janlon Waddle is... I didn't hear a good answer. I didn't hear anything. I'm trying to think of that through it out loud. Jalen Waddle to me is one of the most obvious bounceback guys from last year's wide receiver 34, which is his ADP reflects that. People aren't buying that he's a low end. Yeah, but so like which one do you want? I'll go Jailen Waddle. I think I'll go DJ more as far as hoping for the upside. You've got one guy who's coming off of a wide receiver six season versus a down season.