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Main show · April 7, 2020

Early RB Rankings: 11-24 + Buy/Sell, Elastic Life - Fantasy Football Podcast

RSSApr 7, 2020 · transcript indexed
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Early RB Rankings: 11-24 + Buy/Sell, Elastic Life - Fantasy Football Podcast

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Inside the episode

159 passages
54:45 ↗

And he was like, nine is okay for me. I'll just go to nine. I had three other performances at 10. Isn't that inside the top 10? That's just, ooh. That's always hard when it's the semantics of saying, is he inside the top 10? Because now he's done it four times. But that's the kind of argument that Lev would make to you about how we had a good year. And that's not what we need right now as fantasy owners were burned by what took place.

55:13 ↗

In one respect, you're like, how could it be worse than what you got from Love last year? Big contract. The team struggled. You imagine it's got to be better. Now, he sits at 17 on our rankings, so we're sitting near the top end of the RB2 range. Jason, you got him at 14. Mike at 22, I'm at 17 on the dot. Yeah. But Adam Gaze, man, he just, his aroma, it just covers all players on that roster. Stop talking about it. Their offense,

55:44 ↗

was obviously very bad last year. Lev Bell was not efficient and everyone was disappointed when you drafted him, which means he's not going to be desired this year. People are going to assume it's all gone and falling off.

55:56 ↗

But he is a true workhorse. He is out there on almost, you know, every down. He's the receiving back. He's the goal line back. He's the first down, the third down. He gets the volume. He finished as the running back 17 this last year in 15 games with only four combined touchdowns. I just don't think that he's getting 245 carries and 66 receptions and staying in only four touchdowns. You also had the beginning of the year when smooches their main quarterback.

56:25 ↗

was out. Wait, I thought you're talking about Jason, J.D. McGissick for a second. Oh, yes, that's, that's awesome. He was actually a little bit better in those games.

56:35 ↗

Sure, no, no, no, I realize that, no, I know that in the splits with and without Sam Darnold, but I'm talking about the team as a whole, the offense as a whole. Because for him to get more than four touchdowns, it's not a matter of, is he better with Darnold and without? It's, are the Jets going to be able to take any step forward? They've tried to address the offensive line this year, which was obviously a massive problem last year. They were so bad. But I'm just saying another year, you know, you've got now year two.

57:02 ↗

in stupid Adam Gays' system, but with a young quarterback developing in a better offensive line, he's still going to be the bell cow. And if he finished running back 17 last year, I would point the arrow up over the year before, not down over the year before. That's where I've got him at 14. I would be so much more like Lev Bell nestled in as running back two on my roster is wonderful. That'd be great. Yeah. I think that's just a great situation to be in.

57:28 ↗

it's like the years where you would get Frank Gore as you're running back to and he would always finish you know he never won people leagues but he was just so consistent he had all the volume every week when you plug him as your points as you're running back to is just like forget about this slot on my roster and build build elsewhere is a really nice thing that's what I think you can get in Lev Bell and he's he's not going to cost a lot he's really and people do not want Lev Bell well define a lot

57:54 ↗

I think he will be drafted as like the running back 20. So I'm saying like, give me a round. What round do you think Levy on Bell is drafted in? Well, I guess, I'm guessing 20 would be around third round four, yeah, late third. That's what I think he'll be at. And if he's a fourth round pick, I'm feeling great. If he's, that's fair.

58:21 ↗

fourth pick off the board or something. What just, what feels bad about it, and we said it, I haven't met 22. That's probably too low, but he just, it feels like you're not drafting upside. I know. That feels bad. To spend a fourth round pick on a player where you feel like you're not taking upside, you're just taking something. Safe? It's just real safe. It kind of sucks. Yeah, I was going to say that the Damien Williams versus Lev Bell at 16 and 17 feel like two different.

58:51 ↗

strategies for fantasy owners. Right. It's like, are you buying into the best offense at the Super Bowl champs, the opportunity for, you know, top five weeks, or are you buying into Clinton Portis Reborn? Which is a sad reality for Lev Bell because we were not talking about him like this, you know, for years, for years and years. But we talked about all offseason our concern about can that running style work behind a really bad offensive line? And I think we got the answer. It can't.

59:21 ↗

All right, 18, Marlon Mack, 19, Mark Ingram, and 20, Melvin Gordon, to round out the top 20 running backs. Marlon Mack, Mark Ingram, Melvin Gordon. I'm going to give you some more names, and you can circle back to anybody who want to talk about here. 21, Devin Singletary, who I have higher than you guys, James Connor at 22, Carson 23.

59:52 ↗

and Carri-on-Johnson comes in at 24. Well, still in that RV2 range. I feel like we need to be quarantined from Carri-on-Johnson's music for like an off-season. Yeah, that's fair. I'm going to jump in, though, with Marlon Mack because day after day, I'm getting far more excited for Marlon Mac and what he can actually be with Philip Rivers as his quarterback.

60:24 ↗

We already know what he did last year. He was a thousand plus rusher, eight rushing touchdowns, one of the best offensive lines in the entire NFL. And now you have Philip Rivers who checks down. I went, it checks down to the running back. I went and I looked at Philip Rivers over the last three years because here's something that we can say with 100% uncertainty about Philip Rivers each of the last three years. Every year he gets older. Wait, what did you say, Jason? I snuck in a he's gotten worse.

60:54 ↗

Every year he gets older. That's a ridiculous statement. But what you can't argue with, every year he has gotten older and he is getting a little bit slower. Here's what happened the last three years with Philip Rivers and his target share going to the running back position. In 2017, it was 22.5. That's very healthy. Love it. 2018. And that was 83 targets for Gordon, 35 for Eckler. The next year?

61:22 ↗

27% of his targets went to the running back, 66 targets to Gordon in only 12 games, Echler at 53. And then last year, 29% of his targets went to the running back position. And each time, there are two running backs who are getting a healthy dose of targets. So if you want to get all excited about Nahim Hines because he's the past catching running back and you feel like that's going to be his role, that's fine. But Marlon Mack just being on the field,

61:51 ↗

as the primary first and second down running back, he will see the ball a lot through the air. And Marlon Mack can catch it. Like Melvin Gordon didn't project as a pass catching running back coming out of Wisconsin. His final two years in college, you had a year with one reception and a year with 19. Marlon Mack's final two years coming out of college, 16 receptions.

62:15 ↗

28 receptions. Like the dude can get the job done through the air and Philip Rivers is going to force the issue. I'm getting crazy excited. I know you are, but here's the concerns that I have. One has to do with the hind snap, you know, just being on the field on third down. 44 receptions last year, 63 the year before. Mack had what, 14 receptions last year? Yeah, because of Jacobi. Jacob's not checking it down. Yeah, I don't know. Look, you also had post.

62:43 ↗

postseason comments from this team about resistance to a long-term deal for Marlon Mac. I don't think the team is as happy as you are with his performances. And so those are my two concerns is you're going to have, I mean, you're going, one guy's got 44 receptions, the other guy's got 14. You're going to count on Philip Rivers to dump it down to Marlon Mac based on collegiate evidence on first and second down. No, no. The collegiate evidence was just saying that he can catch the ball. I was saying like,

63:12 ↗

Because the comparison was people think of Melvin Gordon now as a pass-catching running back. He wasn't thought of that coming into the NFL draft. But now we think of him that way. I'm just saying Marlon Mack has that skill set built in. And, dude, last year, Melvin Gordon, 55 targets in 12 games. Austin Echler, the 108 targets. That's two running backs.

63:38 ↗

over 50 targets. And that's all I'm talking about. It's a bet on Rivers, though. It's a bet on Rivers. 100% a bet on Rivers. And on top of that, Marlon Mack is already, like, he's a good runner and has a great offensive line. Like, everything is set up for Marlon Mac to just be great this year. I could see double-digit touchdowns for Mac this year. I don't know if I'm on the past game board. Jason, what do you think?

64:01 ↗

Look, I was a huge Marlon Mac believer last year because of the talent. I think Marlon Mac is a really good running back. Mike, you just brought up their offensive line. If the receptions were to come, he would be a phenomenal fantasy asset. And I think that, you know, when you talk about both backs having 50 targets, that gets me excited because I am one of those people. When I hear Philip Rivers coming, I think, oh, that's great news for name Heinz because Philip Rivers is going to check that ball down a lot. I am 100% certain of that.

64:30 ↗

But it's probably going to be to both of those guys. And Marlon Mack, I think, has the skill set. So you got me excited. You got Jack Doyle there to be Mr. Checkdown Jack. Hey, my dynasty team thanks. Thanks him for his service. He can't be rebranded. He's already baby hands. Baby hands. But Checkdown Jack is pretty good. Check down, Jack. The guy I want to bring up is Melvin Gordon. Melvin Gordon is a player that it seems like.

64:55 ↗

People are leaving for dead. You two certainly are not. You don't have them in your top 20. I've got them at 16. Mike, you've got them at 21, Andy at 23. And the more than I stop and think about it, I mean, do I think that the Denver Broncos offense with Drew Locke is going to be outstanding? No. Be careful what you say. The Denver Bronco truthers came out.

65:17 ↗

with force after our last they're 12 and 4 is the if they don't go 12 and 4 it'll be shocking to them just so you know uh well there it's going to be a very surprising season um but uh you know i think back of last season right and this is a team that really does want to run the ball they they drafted uh

65:42 ↗

Royce Freeman and then signed Philip Lindsay in the same year. And that's kind of been their one-two punch. Remember at the, there was this big moment last year. They just couldn't get the running game going the way that they wanted. They go into their by week and week 10. And coming out of the by week, all the news right before kickoff, all the reporters at the game were saying, we just heard from the coaches that it's basically Philip Lindsay's job. They're going to shift away from the RBBC and give Philip Lindsay more work. And they did. From that point on, he was on pace.

66:11 ↗

for almost 250 carries. But he didn't do well with it. He, you know, his great yards per carry average plummeted down when he got more utilization. And so what do they do? They go out and sign a big money contract for Melvin Gordon. And I think Melvin Gordon is big for, not big for what Melvin Gordon wanted, but that's a lot of money to pay a running back. And it certainly says, you're our guy. And I believe Melvin Gordon is going to get.

66:38 ↗

easily north of 250 carries. And if he has, ooh, I mean, like a lot. 250 is a lot when they, when their own beat riders are saying they're not positive, he's the main guy. That's what I believe. That's why I've got him up at 16. And the touchdowns, they're going to give him the opportunity. They're just not signing him and bringing him in, a guy who's had a long, you know, successful history of being a goal on guy. He's got a nose for the end zone when they get.

67:07 ↗

down there, they're going to give him the opportunity. So I think the money, the utilization that we saw last at the end of the season last year with Philip Lindsay and Melvin Gordon's history says he's going to be okay. So I mean, I don't have him as a running back one, but I think he's going to be a higher end running back to, not a lower end. Do you have Gurley or Gordon higher? I have Gurley for the retread seasons. Yes, the retread seasons. I've got Todd Gurley winning that. I think Gurley's actually in a pretty good spot.

67:37 ↗

All right, before we close this thing out, I want to remind people, go to footclanhelp.com. We've got a live AMA on our forums this Friday, April 10th, 11 a.m. Pacific, 2 p.m. Eastern, going to be answering. Jason said it. He's going to try to answer every single question that comes through. So you can go directly to that thread at footclanhelp.com. We're going to help you out with answers to every question that you've got. He will certainly handle any and all Boston cream related inquiries.

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