Fantasy Football 2018 - This-OR-That ADP Picks, Evolving Opinions

going a little bit more. And that's what they had to do based on their defense after Ryan Chazier went down through the middle of last year. I mean, when you just look at the splits between the first half of the year and the second half of the year for Big Ben, they're incredible. I mean, you're talking about a guy who the second half, from week nine on, the second half, his 16-game pace would have been 5,000 passing yards and 41 touchdowns. He wasn't, Big Ben wasn't like,

Hey, he still got it. He was just on fire. He was as good as you can get for fantasy. And I think the changes they made this offseason are to kind of keep that rolling. And I don't think their defense has been able to replace Ryan's Shazier. So they're going to, they're going to have to score. And the great news is with Antonio Brown, with a star being born in Juju Smith-Schuster, and with Levi-on-Belt being used so much in the passing game, all those points are going to Big Ben.

It's interesting. I wanted to look at the game splits and see how Big Ben performed with and without Martavis Bryant over the last two seasons, and his numbers were basically identical across the board passing yards, attempts, completions, interception percentages. So he is not a key cog to Big Ben being productive in that offense. And obviously. I think this is the best wide receiver two in Juju that Big Ben's had since, you know, he had Manuel Sanders.

Yeah, it's interesting. If you look at how he played with Juju, his passing yard, his projected average on the year would be 4,100 yards and 27 touchdowns, which I think you would be content with. Yeah, not crazy excited about. I mean, the truth is you're probably still not going to play Big Ben week in, week out. He will be a matchup play at the quarterback position. And, you know, I'll draft both these guys and play the better matchup if I need to.

I'm going to go with the guy that has averaged 277 passing yards a game. Mr. Matthew Stafford, crazy stat. He's been sacked 84 times since the beginning of 2016. That is the second most sacks of any quarterback in the NFL. And yet, he completed a higher percentage of 40-plus-yard passes than anybody else in football. So he's gotten the ball downfield. He's found Marvin Jones. He is, you know, what, Westworld's going on right now? Matthew Stafford's a gunslinger.

Doesn't matter the arm angle. It doesn't matter the weapons that he seems to have around him. This team is built around Matthew Stafford. And much like your argument for Big Ben, I don't think the defense in Detroit is what Matt Patricia wants to have and will have in a couple of years, two, three years as he builds it. So I think Stafford is a pretty safe bet. I would lean the Stafford direction. If you want to talk safe, it's Stafford.

You know he's going to get 4,000 yards. Yes, Stafford will be out there. He'll throw 4,000 yards. He'll throw for, you know, 30 touchdowns around there. I mean, you're... Stafford is, I think, one of the, if not the safest, late-round quarterback of probably the last few years and certainly 2018 as well. He's probably the guy I will end up owning the most. Brooks? Why don't you weigh in? Stafford.

Oh, wow. I feel like that was just to make me happy. Is that true, Brooks? That is not true. You would rather have Matthew Stanford? It might be because he's on my dynasty roster. That does impact things. And the truth. So Mike and I did a trade. Mike and I did a trade this weekend. Did you see that trade, Brooks? Did you see we completed one? I did. In our dynasty league? I liked it for you. Oh, did you? Did you? Yeah, I traded Mike. Now, it's rare for Mike. I think in, what, 10 years of playing together, Mike and I have probably completed like five trades.

Yeah, you guys don't trade very often. No. With each other. Yeah, and Mike, you know, that's good on Mike. I mean, he knows that I'm going to take advantage of him and I'm going to beat him. And I offered him Pierre Garsohn in the dynasty and I got Corey Clement. I love that. And I'm very happy about that. And so. But I've also shared. I don't even know where that conversation was going. That was tied into something I was going to say.

But now I feel like I'm just bragging. He was talking about his dynasty roster. He's got Stafford. Oh, that's right. And then when I did the trade, Mike said, I'll be right back. I got to go adjust my peer Garsohn rankings. That was the joke that Mike made. He said, okay, now I've got Garcon. I've got to go tweak him. All right. This or that? Moving on to a little bit of a tough one here. Amari Cooper or Larry Fitzgerald.

I don't know if they could be more polar opposites. No, they seem like they're completely different tiers. We had the horse and the inside out horse like... The duck? The dark horse. Yeah, the bright duck and the dark horse. I mean, that's Larry Fitzgerald and Amari Cooper, is it not? Larry Fitzgerald, the absolute stallion. Yeah, he is the dark horse who you think is not going to get it done and he absolutely will. And the bright duck is Amari Cooper who, oh, he's so bright, so shiny.

Oh, he's so good. He was drafted so high. He's so fast, and he's the guy, and he's getting the targets, and he's going to let you down big time. Right? Or wrong. Right, right. What, like, what is it? Every year, what is it? I have my checklist of, like, the last thing I said in Amari Cooper was nice. This time I've got to be mean. Here, let me help you. He caught 48 of 96 passes last year. That's not good. That would be just, he's right around the Josh Doxon, Geron, Brown, Zay Jones level.

So it's 50% of passes. How about this one? Six drop balls last year. Hmm. You know who dropped the most? Crabtree? No. Des Bryant. Ooh. Des Bryant. And Marquis Lee. It's jobless. Yeah. So I don't know if that bends you away from Murray Cooper, but I know that you're never going to find Larry Fitzgerald on that list. So who do you go with? Well, you know. The truth is this. You're on the clock.

It's time to draft, Jason. Larry Legend or Amari potential. According to my rankings, I actually have despite the fact that I have been blasphemously painted as this Larry Fitzgerald hater, I actually have Larry Fitzgerald higher in my rankings than I do Amari Cooper. That being said, I think that the ceiling for the potential breakout superstar season.

is there with Amari Cooper and is not with fits. So this is to some extent a roster construction issue. I feel like Larry Fitzgerald will usually go later in draft, so I would much prefer Larry. If it's any kind of full PPR, even in a half PPR, Larry Fitzgerald, you know, if I had to bet my house on an over under of 90 receptions, I would say over.

for for larry i think it would be foolish to think he has less than 90 in that you're basically hope you're calling for an injury so i would i'm usually in the early rounds i am risk averse i know mike is more shoot for the moon and go crazy you know i like taking my swings later and my safe picks because i think everyone in the first few rounds is a good player that's why they're in the first few rounds so i try to avoid

The risk, ironically, you would think maybe the risk would be the elderly gentleman, but Larry Fitzgerald's not risky. I'm sure he really enjoys that moniker associated with him. Elderly. Yeah. I'm taking Larry Fitzgerald. Oh. I'm taking Larry Fitzgerald. I, look, he's trying. I think this would be surprising to people. That I would take Larry? That both of us would say, wait, Larry Fitzgerald over Amari Cooper.

I'm not going to... You said something about Amari Cooper being a good player. I don't know if everybody's certain of that. I don't know if we're certain. And with John Gruden, you know, Jordy Nelson, Martavis Bryant, the running game, the seemingly unwillingness historically of Derek Carr to look to Amari Cooper in the red zone, I'm not counting on Cooper. I certainly would... If I'm picking a...

wide receiver one are you comfortable with amari cooper this week comfortable no comfortable no i've i've here's what amari cooper is i just got this shirt and i bought it and it is oh it's hot is it's gonna look so good but i'm a little worried on the size and i didn't try it on in the store and i know if it's too tight i'm gonna look so fat so that's what amari cooper is it's like that's a hundred dollar shirt

I shouldn't be buying a $100 shirt, but it's so nice. It's the last one on the rack. I got to have it. And then, oh, please, I got to lose weight or he's got to be big enough. I feel like that's the comparison. Amari Cooper pre-draft, he looks real good in that department store mirror. But once you got him at home, once you got him on your roster and you look in the mirror at home, you're like, oh, man, should I have even bought this? Yeah, that's...

I think I need to go on a diet if you draft Amari Cooper. There's no reason. I think he's good for 75 receptions. I think he's good for a thousand yards. But do I think he's going to score eight touchdowns? Seven touchdowns? No, I think he's probably going to be five. And if he's five, he's not, well, Larry Fitzgerow is going to give you. Because Larry's going to catch 30 more passes. And one of the problems with Cooper is if you look at how he's gotten his total statistics over the last several years, even when he was, you know, over a thousand and higher volume.

So much of his production comes in a few games. He has those monster games, 200 yards and two or three touchdowns. And at the end of the year, you go, oh, that was really good, but disappears for enormous chunks. And last year, we need to be honest and say it's entirely possible based on the first two seasons of high productivity. Last year could have been, as it is rumored to be, a situation with fighting through injuries.

Even though he was out there playing, Derek Carr said he was hobbled. He was barely himself and he's healthy now. So if Amari Cooper comes out and breaks out in his top five, I don't think anyone just to, you know, I don't think anyone could be like, oh, man, we didn't see this possible. It's just we, we don't think that's going to happen anymore with Gruden and the new Raiders. Things just have to go really, really right. A lot of things don't have to go right for Larry to be what Larry is. Right. But he doesn't have the.

I don't think he has even the potential to be a top five. You don't think Larry can catch 12 touchdown passes in Arizona? No, I don't. Okay. That is the issue to me is this Arizona with Bradford and Rosen? Rosen. I think he's, you know, highest potential. By the way, shout out to the Arizona Cardinals. I am wearing a cap that the Arizona Cardinals sent me this past week. They saw me on Twitter and they wanted to share the love. And then a hat showed up. So thank you very much.

I'm giving them a shout. Brooks. Brooks, what do you got? Who you got, Larry or Amari? Larry. Really? Okay. I want to get into the mailbag, so I'm just going to ask these. No explanation. Okay. Marlon Mac or Rex Burkhead? They're going back to back in drafts. Marlon Mack, Rex Burkhead, Jason. Marlon McGrath, Jason. Marlon, Rex Burkhead, going away. Markle Mac? I mean, super close. All right. That's a poor decision. That's a great one. Julian Edelman, Michael Crabtree. Michael Crabtree, very not going away. Close. I mean, super close. I'll take Julian Edelman.

We were looking a little bit at Jeremy Macklin this morning and how poor he performed in Baltimore after a down year in Kansas City. Michael Crabtree had the down year last year. You hope it doesn't go the same way for him. Probably won't. Flacco is saying some nice things about Crabtree, but I have my doubts. Obviously, Edelman coming off the injury. I lean the Edelman direction. That is a Tom Brady, you know, Tom Brady Joe Flacko thing.

It's funny because I... You're siding with Joe Flacco. I just want you to know that. I lean the crab tree, but I don't want to. My heart's with Edelman. No, no, no. You're Joe Flacco truth. If there's one thing that I know about you... I won't stand for this. I will not stand for this. I've said some nice things about him in the past before, but that was more like, you know, maybe he could not be terrible.

Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Maybe he gets the Alex Smith, you know, Patrick Mahomes comes in and is drafted and now he's willing to throw the ball down field. But I don't think Flacco plays 16 games. I feel like a rule in fantasy football where if the narrative for why you're going to be good takes more than two sentences, you're not going to be good. You're probably not going to be good. That's how I feel about Amari Cooper in that last discussion. You're like, well, I mean, he might be really hurt. I mean, who puts up drop numbers like that? Who catches 50% of their passes? A hurt guy. That's who. Yeah.

Might just be not as good as you hope. Yeah, we'll see. Mailbag. Ooh. Jay Gris had it on lockdown. Jason, you panicked. I did. I had to wave you off. You played that the beginning of that drop, and I thought, oh, no, I'm going to have to mailbag here. Yeah, and I remember the last one you did. We all do. It was too good. It was sultry. That's what I say. All right. If you have a question for the show, we're happy to answer them. Go to the website, the fancy footballers.com.

Click the submit a question button or dial our voicemail. Hotline 302464 TFFB. Jason, here's a voicemail question. Hey, Paula. With Hunter Henry going down, it's a little unclear how we handle it. Thank you guys. Yeah, that's a tough question because you know you're drafting that player for the eventuality. And are you going to be the one to pull the trigger versus the other people in your league? I do like Hunter Henry a lot for the future. But there are, here's the thing.