Free Agent Predictions + Dak's New Contract, ARob & Godwin Tagged - Fantasy Football Podcast for 3/11

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Andy, Jason, and a bear coming at you. It's been a while since we've had Jay Gris in the studio. Yeah, I mean, it feels a little bit nicer in here without, there's not an air of hair superiority in the room. No, right now. Right. Jay Gris clearly hairier than Mike, but doesn't hold it over us the way that Mike does. Correct. Exactly. So Jason and I.

Jay Grizz, we have it on lockdown today. This is a free agency show today, a lay of the land, if you will, and our predictions on where some of these free agents will go, which is always very exciting. Yeah, these things matter. And as football fans, we want to know what's happening. And as fantasy players, this is really valuable to just.

keep in mind through this offseason as we go. Like, who are all the free agents? Which ones matter? Which ones do we expect to change teams or stay on the same teams, et cetera? And so the lay of the land will be given today. Yeah. And it's always exciting when big names change teams. Last year we saw D'Andre Hopkins with the trade, go to Arizona. Then you start to, you know, get into the predicting and the, you know.

Just our mindset changes to where we can see the best outcome for these players on their new teams, but it doesn't always work out that way. Sometimes they take the money and they end up in a worse situation. Yeah, I would say historically, the majority of big free agent shifts are negative for fantasy. The players got paid a lot of money because they were already great. So usually best case scenario is they stay great.

but they more often than not don't live quite up to that expectation. So maybe that will end up a silver lining for some of the franchise player news that we have today. Yes, absolutely. You can find us on Twitter at the FFBallers, and I encourage you to do so. You can check out the website, the fantasy footballers.com, player profiles up there, and get ready for your draft at ultimate draft kit.com. Let's do some buy sell, Jay.

Buy or Sell, presented by pristine auction. Well, this is a franchise tag edition of Buy Sell, and we almost had this show on Tuesday. Yes, in fact, we were originally supposed, like our calendar, we've got a show calendar, we were going to do this show. Earlier this week, we made the decision. Last minute decision. Yeah, based on kind of where the news was and what was going on to kind of push it back a couple days.

Well, that was a good decision. That was a great decision, Andy. Yeah, the reason we did that is we knew that there would be some franchise tag decisions being made and we didn't want to come on here and make a bunch of predictions that just fell flat. Now we will still do that. Few right. But fewer. Fewer because like we will no longer get Chris Godwin and Alan Robinson's destinations incorrect. Oh, that's true. The Buccaneers assigned the franchise tag to Chris Godwin. The Bears did the same to Alan Robinson. Godwin will end up.

Being paid around $15.8 million, Alan Robinson, $18 million to stay in Chicago. Reaction, Jason? My reaction is, Kenny Galladay is a free agent. All right. No franchise tag for Kenny G. The Detroit Lions let him know they're not going to place it on him, and he is officially a free agent. And now, can you imagine how happy he is? Because, like, there were three big name wide receivers on the market. Oh, that's true.

Bell of the ball. That's right. You want me, you pay me. Oh, so smooth. Yeah, he's going to make some money. Right. Well, he's Kenny G. After all. For those of you, like part of this show today, we'll talk about some of the basics of this time period in the NFL just so that you're up to speed so that you understand what we're talking about. The franchise tag, you're probably familiar with it from a monetary perspective.

It's a one-year deal. It guarantees the player the average of the top five highest paid players at their position or 120% of their previous year's salary, whichever is higher. Which is why these two franchise tagged players are getting paid different amounts in Alan Robinson and Chris Godwin. Yeah. And so.

You basically have until July 15th to sign franchise tagged players to long-term deals. Is that accurate? That's right. So Alan Robinson, he's still hoping for a long-term deal. Chris Godwin. It's not a guarantee they're only on a one-year deal. But I would say the majority of time when people are franchise tagged, it ends up being a one-year deal unless the tag, like in Dak Prescott's situation, is being used.

just really as a tool. Like, DAC is technically franchised, but they came to agreement on a big, new, fatty contract. I feel like they took the franchise tag, like the paperwork, the legal paperwork, and they all did it in pencil. You know what I mean? They're just like, yeah, we're going to go through the hoop here, but we knew where we're headed. Now, do you think that the one-year case will, you know, be the case for Godwin in Robinson?

You think either one ends up with a long-term deal? I do not think either one ends up with a long-term deal by whatever that date is, July 15th. All right, so here's the buy-sell. Chris Godwin and Alan Robinson, back where they were, are they top 15 wide receivers in 2021? Okay. Now, are we taking this individually? Like a buy and sell on each? No. Do they both have to be? Are they both top 15 wide receivers? Because look, it was a...

A down year for Godwin coming off of the breakout year in which he was arguably the best wide receiver in the game. Yes, it was. Injuries. I would credit most of it to injuries. The first half of the season, Godwin dealt with a ton of different injuries, missed several games. If you look from week nine on, at that point forward, he was just healthy, played the entire rest of the season.

During that stretch, he was the wide receiver 14. So he's inside the top 15, you know, threshold were arbitrarily coming up with. Not that arbitrarily, because if you look at both of these players, they tied each other with 13.2 fancy points per game, which was exactly wide receiver 15. Oh, on a per game basis. So on a per game basis, this is very not arbitrary. Okay. So with Godwin.

I feel like there is nowhere to go but up. I can't imagine him having a worse season next year. Now, that was points per game you're saying. Obviously, he finished, I think, wide receiver 32 because he missed several games. Right, which you throw out due to injury. But I presume Antonio Brown will not be back and or Rob Grancowski, at least one of them, just financially speaking. What about the everlasting arm, though? When will that noodle up?

From my understanding of the definition of the word everlasting, I believe that it will not dry up. And I'm sick of, I think it was like 16 years ago at this point now when I predicted the end of... Oh, yeah. Remember that? The end of the Patriots and Tom Brady and... Right. Fool me once. Just the Patriots, though, is how it panned out. Yeah, so I, you know, when I look at these two players, if I had to pick one to be better next year between them,

I actually prefer Alan Robinson. Oh, as do I. I did not expect that from you, though. Right, because I've been, over the last couple of years, the Alan Robinson, um, hater is the wrong word, uh, like the, the speaker of truth, I believe is, is how I would call it. Uh, the realist. The realist. The more, yeah, I, we've had lots of debates about Alan Robinson because there's this aspect of his pure talent, which I think we all agree is outstanding.

Top five, probably, in pure wide receiver talent. Yeah, I believe that. I think so. But then, you know, you've said a lot of his production has come due to insane target volume. And so you had made some arguments during the year that maybe some of that value is exaggerated due to target volume. And if that changes, you know, I remember.

I remember the mean things you've said about him that were based in fact. The reality is, once again, he had over 150 targets. And I believe he's had four seasons now where he's played 16 games, all of them outside of the rookie season, over 150 targets. So he is, I mean, we remember, what was it, 2012 when we nicknamed him? The target monster. The target monster. Like that was his official nickname. And I think that's, it's just stuck. And the reality is he's had bad quarterback play.

He's going to continue to have bad quarterback play, no matter, you know, the Bears aren't, the Bears aren't getting Russell Wilson. No. Sorry, Chicago fans. Okay, 102 receptions last year for Alan Robinson. 1,200 yards, okay, six touchdown. He had 151 targets. He's getting paid $18 million. Do we think Robinson has it worse than he really does? Yeah.

Yeah, because he doesn't have it that bad. Because he's got it pretty good. 150 targets. You're the alpha. I mean, 102 receptions and 1,250 yards. Like, I know he wants to win. Yeah, but the fantasy community just wants stats. And you think, okay, if he's top five. But how good can it get for him? Really. I mean, this is like the juju with Antonio Brown season. How good? Put Alan Robinson on whatever team you want. Put him on Green Bay.

Does it get better than 102 for 1250 and 6? Probably not. He would need to be the alpha for a good quarterback. So really, here's the best case scenario. The best case scenario is the Bears get a good quarterback. Exactly. The Bears get Russell Wilson or Deshawn Watson or somehow they swing one of these. Nick Foles. Oh, Jake Gris getting hype. Yeah, this is a lot of Bears talk. Yeah, but speaking of Nick Foles, you know, right now you're like, oh, they don't even have a quarterback. We don't know who it's going to be. Nick Foles is under contract.

Nick Foles is currently the starter. And if you actually look on a per game basis where Alan Robinson played the best, it was with Nick Foles. He had a higher target volume, yards, same touchdown pace. He was better with Nick Foles. See, I felt better as an Alan Robinson manager late in the season when Mitch took the job back. Yeah, it was surprising when I looked that up today. But he averaged almost three. Is that in career or last year? No, just last season. He averaged almost three fantasy points more per game with.

Nick Foles. Maybe that's just because when Nick Foll started games, you kind of knew what the ceiling was going to be for that game. And he was still going to be the best receiver, but you weren't going to get something special. All right, buy yourself. I'm officially going to buy both as top 15. I will buy both as the top 15 as well. But barely. I think God was the barely one. It is a great long. Jay Gris is happy to hear you say that. Barely. Oh, I see.

It's better to explain the joke. Well, he's a bear. Right. No, no, no. Thank you. Thank you. That was buyer sale brought to you by our friends at Pristine Auction. Use our code ballers. When you go over to pristine auction.com and they'll give you $10.00 towards any piece of sports memorabilia, pop culture memorabilia? But what if I wanted, like, Michael Jordan signed awesome, you know, poster? You could do that. But if I signed up with ballers, would I get $10 off? Yeah. Cool. You are so smart. Let's talk news.