Fantasy Football Podcast 2017 - Trending or Ending, News & Notes, Mailbag

Chip Kelly's system, he doesn't need to run laterally all the time out of the shotgun. He can move forward. That's what he does. That's when he was great in Dallas. That's when he was great last year again with the Titans. I know that Derek Henry, I expect Henry to get more involved. We saw that towards the end of the season, started taking away some of those goal line carries. So maybe they will lighten that workload. But even still, I think that Murray will continue to be a high.

high capacity, workhorse running back. And I think that he's got enough left to give you at least one more great year of fantasy. I won't add anything to that. I agree completely. He's training for me. The one thing I will say because he was training for me as well. Coming into today, I believe in DeMarco Murray. I think he fits that system. But it is worth pointing out because when I look back at Marco Murray's season, right, he was good front to back. He had a great year. There was no real issue.

But when you actually break down his numbers, front half to second half of the year, second half of the year, he was the RB 11. So it's not like he was bad. But the first half of the year, he was the RB3. We're talking a difference between, in standard scoring, he was 17 points a game. First half of the year, 12, second half of the year. So I think the trend is going to stay as him being an RB1 this year.

but he is going to be a lower end RB1 for me, not the number five guy. As of right now, way too early drafts, but fantasy football calculator, DeMarco Murray and Todd Gurley are going back to back. Murray is going one slot ahead of Todd Gurley. Give me all the DeMarco. There you go. Right. I think that that will actually continue as we go on. It would be pretty hard for me to pass into Marco Murray for Todd Gurley. Right.

It would depend on my team's makeup, or if that was an opportunity to grab a two. I still probably go to Marco. All right. Trending or ending with rookie sensations, all right? I'm going to give you three rookie names. We're going to go trending or ending. Jordan Howard was RB10 in 2016. Michael Thomas was the wide receiver 7 in 2016, and Dak Prescott was the QB6 in 2016. Trending or ending for those three players? Where do you slot them for 2017? I know it's early.

I'm going to, I'll start us off because I think it's trending on all three. That might be the easy thing to say because that's all we've ever seen from them is a top 10 performance. But here's the rationale for why I believe it will repeat on all three of those guys. If it wasn't for Ezekiel Elliott, Jordan Howard's rookie year would be talked about like crazy.

But he wasn't the best rookie this year. And so he's discounted a little bit, and he didn't come in as the starter. But his year was exceptional. He was the second leading rusher in the NFL, and he wasn't the starter.

the whole season. He was great. So why in the world would he, I mean, that was his doing. 1,300 yards, 5.2, a carry, 6 touchdowns, 29. With a pretty decent offensive line that's young and going to be getting better. Michael Thomas has a Hall of Fame quarterback and another year under his belt. He's the guy of this list, I would be the most concerned about personally, just because I think most people aren't. And you see with wide receivers sometimes if they break out year one a regression, Dak.

is like one of my favorite targets right now for next year. I think his consistency level at the quarterback is just unbelievable. Yeah, I love DAC as well, but it's not all just DAC. I mean, that offensive line, give me a quarterback who can just stand there for the majority of the game gets hit very rarely, takes low amount of sacks because the offensive line is so great. I mean, you can...

He can survey the field. Then you throw in that he has one of the best wide receivers in the league in Des Bryant. I think that that will continue to be that efficient quarterback. You're not going to get the volume. You won't get that Matt Stafford, a bazillion attempts. But I think that he will be very efficient with his attempts. So he continues to be a high level. Not top three, but that nice middle of the Pat QB1.

Yeah, another thing just quickly to throw out there on his past catchers, you know, when you talk about receiving running backs, I was blown away the other day to find out that the leader in the league for yards per reception at running back was not Tevin Coleman, was not... Devonthe Freeman. Yeah, DeVant Freeman. We're not these guys who had... It was Ezekiel Elliott was the number one yards per reception at running back, so he can break them big for DAC as well.

All right. I would lean trending for all three. If I had to rank them, like, you know, I'm betting my house and I need to pick one guy to stay trending. It's actually Michael Thomas for me. Right. I think I have most confidence in Thomas. Then I would go Howard. Then I would go DAC. I would not be surprised to see a small regression from DAC in terms of fantasy consistency because nothing was prolific in the numbers. It was just kind of a conglomeration of consistency across the numbers.

So if DAC ended up QB 13 or 14 next year, I really would be surprised. He might be a better, he might be just fine as a real-life quarterback, maybe not as a fantasy. But that's just my opinion, if I had to handicap those three. My worries for Jordan Howard are, unfortunately, they're not Jordan Howard related. They are the past trends of what has happened for running backs like this. You had a couple years ago, Jeremy Hill.

The monster, monster breakout completely fell apart. Todd Gurley, monster breakout on a bad team, fell apart. Jordan Howard, monster breakout. Now, the Bears are, they're not a good team. Not yet. They don't even have a quarterback at this time. Can he continue? I mean...

Watching him, you have to think he can. He just, he looked like such a beast, such a powerful man. 18th ranked offensive line, according to PFF. Yeah, and it's, so that's not elite. It's not terrible. Really, so. So I have my, I don't want to have concerns about Jordan Howard, but unfortunately, because of recent history, that's, that's digging into my opinions of him. Yeah. All right. Trending or ending the decline of Cam Newton. He went to.

QB 19 will he keep trending downwards or will that end and he'll return to a QB1 level next season because that's really what people need to know. So Cam Newton, man, Cam Newton is so interesting of his numbers. So yeah, the MVP season, his numbers were not that different than his career. His passing yards that year, I mean, they weren't even the highest of his career, 3,800.

However, 35 passing touchdowns. Before then, his career high was 24. So he took a massive outlier leap up into the mid-30s. You pack on top of that, that he had 10 rushing touchdowns when he had been averaging. He had five before that in 2014, 6 in 2013. He just, he's not a great passer. I mean, his completion percentage.

for his career is 58.4. If you took that completion percentage and you took away, or you just gave that to another starting quarterback for, we have six years of data now for Cam Newton, that quarterback will be out of a job. Now, luckily, Cam Newton is a great football player and can run and can do all these other things. But as a passer, he has to improve, he has to improve these mechanics. He relies so much on...

his athletic freak ability of, well, I'm falling over backwards. I'm just going to lob it up in the air because I can. Unless I see that improvement of the passing, I think that this is what we expect from Cam Newton, where if you track his actual QB1 performances, why I was concerned about him two years ago, because he was either QB1 or he was garbage. He just, he would boom or he would absolutely destroy your team. So that's why I expect.

from Cam Newton moving forward. All right. So you're a, uh, the trend of Cam Newton being a lower tier quarterback. It's just a quarterback. Is what you believe. I don't want, maybe the end of season numbers are okay for Cam, but I just, I'm off. I want to pause real quick. I don't know if you guys saw this yet. I just wanted to throw it out there. It's always fun. Mel Kuyper's draft, mock draft 2.0 came out. Um, some interesting.

picks here. You had four net going to the Jets at six. Hmm. What? Well ahead of Dalvin Cook. No. He actually has Dalvin Cook going at 15 to Washington. I don't mind that, but just the Jets with the money invested in Powell and Forte and the other needs. Mike Williams to Philly, to the Philadelphia Eagles. That would make sense. They actually had Sean Watson to Buffalo, and he has Mitch.

Good old Mitch Trubisky to San Francisco at number two. So some interesting. It's always, even when you start hearing names with teams, we're going to get into all the rookies, obviously, down the line here. But kind of interesting to see this. Yeah. I'm rising on Deshaun Watson. Oh, really? Really? Yeah. It's funny because I think you could go to number two. I'm probably going slightly the opposite direction just because of not because of now after hearing you're rising. Right. No.

Just because I'm worried about him staying healthy in the NFL. But otherwise, I think the talent's there. I just don't know if he'll be able to. I see him as a better version of Teddy Bridgewater. And so I think health obviously has no concern. Trending or ending. Trending or ending Jeremy Hill. Here's the trend for Jeremy Hill. 2014. He was the RB 10. 2015, he was the RB 15. 2016, he was the RB 22. So the question is simple. Will he keep trending downwards?

You're moving. If this trend continues, you're talking about a running back three next year at best. Duh. I don't think it does. I'm going to say that the trend is bucked here. Now, that's assuming that they come back next year with Gio and Jeremy Hill.

and obviously new information like them going out and drafting a running back. They'll sign somebody for sure, because Rex Burke is a free agent, so they'll bring him back or sign some name that makes people scared and might drop draft position of Jeremy Hill. I'm saying if they use, you know, a second round draft pick on a running back, whereas, you know, okay, now they're investing and it makes a move. I don't think that Jeremy Hill is going to continue his downward trajectory.

His opportunities are great, and we saw this year he was, you know, he played through a lot of injury and had to because Gio was gone. Didn't look quite the same, but I don't believe that he continues trending downward to an RB3. I think his value, his ADP will continue traveling downward. And I think the value that you could get if you can get a Jeremy Hill later, which I think finally we're going to be able to get him late. I'm talking, you know, after the fifth round.

The value of a guy who gets the work near the goal line is valuable. Last year I talked about, you know, Legeret Blunt, when you've got the opportunity. Is he the new, is he the new joint bell? Two straight years of under four a carry? No, because it gets the goal line carries. Let's ask, do you love him?

No. Then he's not the new joint bell. Here's the thing that's interesting to add to your point. I think your point's spot on. I think there's every chance that he could be a top 20 running back. I don't think he's prolific. I don't think he's a running back one. But he's been 9, 11, and 9 touchdowns because who else is going to score? I mean, Andy Dalton, AJ Green, that connection will be back next year. I mean, it's kind of crazy. Jeremy Hills had exactly 222 or 223 carries all three years in the league. That's what he gets.

He certainly didn't do what he did year one the last couple of years, but I think he's a top 20 guy. I'd put him at 17, 18. And he had 62 and a half percent of the rushing touches from inside the five. That puts him at 16th. So, which is, that's actually kind of surprising for me. He had, how many total, he had 15 total carries inside the five. So, I mean,

He'll be a touchdown guy, but if he can't improve that vision and get those happy feet under control, that's what's going to be. Where would Jeremy Hill be if he didn't play Cleveland this year twice? That's what I want to know. His Cleveland game was bananas. Nine for 168 and a touchdown. He didn't. I mean, his two Cleveland games are his only two 100-yard games of the year. Okay. That's it. Well, what was he on the Broncos game?