Top 10 Things to Remember + Jason’s Little Black Book - Fantasy Football Podcast for 2/29

The greatest illusion is that you are going to get to see what that team will do in the playoffs. Yes. Because it doesn't happen. It almost never happens. I cannot remember a team. I mean, my dynasty team last year. We were talking about how lucky I was getting with injuries, week 10, 12, 13, and the shoe finally dropped, right? So, yeah, it is a good thing to remember that, look. When the roster looks nice, take a picture, but it's not going to last very long. Yes. Prepare yourself. Number eight. This was called... Smell your own farts. Good ain't bad. Oh, okay. Sorry. That's right. Good ain't bad. Remember that. Yeah. Young stud players who have proven themselves on the NFL field. They came out and they're like, wow, they're really good. They're sensational. They are not going to go away.

just because the team brings in depth and more talent. And that's a lesson I needed to learn from this last year, specifically to two players you just mentioned, Andy, Travis ETN and Kenneth Walker. Both of these teams went out and got a day two running back, high draft capital for a running back. Tank Bigsby comes into Jacksonville, and it was like both Travis ETN and Kenneth Walker. Prior to the NFL draft, guys, we were really, really, really high on. You know, we did our early rankings shows, and Kenneth Walker, he's just a stud. But then in the second round, they go and draft Zach Charbonnet and you're like, he's ruined. Kenneth Walker's ruined. I got unreasonably mad. Oh, yeah. That was the maddest you'd been all year. I...

know exactly where I was like you remember the moment I remember the moment I was sitting in my office and the news came through and I was a level of mad for a pretend game that I should not have reached yeah it's one it's one of those things where I thought for sure that with that kind of draft capital coming in that these running backs would Not usurp the talent, but just destroy it. Just destroy the fantasy value. And obviously, you know, at the end of the year, Kenneth Walker got injured and Travis E.T.N slowed down a bit. But that wasn't because of this backup that came in. They were both workhorses. They were both workhorses because they proved themselves already. We saw it. The NFL team saw it. Look, if you dominate on the field, then you're good. You know, so I think about this year. Like, well, who could that happen to? Like, Kyron Williams.

dominated this last year. If they go out and spend a day two pick on a running back, I'm still going to be in on Kyron Williams. The team needs depth. Every team needs depth. We just talked about, you know, don't rest on your laurels, you know, build, you're good at running back. No, you're not. You're never good at running back. Go add someone. And that's true for NFL teams as well. So, Nico Collins, Tank Dell, there's been so many rumors of, The Texans going out and getting a wide receiver in the draft or going after Mike Evans if he becomes available or whatever the case is. It's like. Alvin Camara last offseason seemed like he was set up for the worst scenario. You're going to miss time. We like Kendrae Miller. You had Jamal Williams. And it's Alvin. David Montgomery. You know, they, they.

It's been a huge draft capital. David Montgomery was still very good. If you're a very good player, you're a very good player. And I want to be less afraid this season about, oh, so-and-so added this player, so now my guy is ruined. No, if the guy's good, he's going to get his. The team is just better. Who was ahead of Keishon Vaughn in Tampa when that happened? Because I remember people being afraid of Keishon Vaughn in Tampa Bay. But I don't remember who the starter was. I don't know if it was, it was probably four net at the time. I think that checks out. But I mean, that was, you know, draft season is very fun. The NFL, it's the bright lights. It takes over the whole world. So I think it's very easy nowadays to lose perspective on the way a team is built and pay so much attention to six months worth of rookie and bestball drafts to lose sight of the fact that

These players not only perform well on the field, but they also establish relationships with those teams oftentimes. So, yeah, it's a big time, good reminder to have. Number seven. All right, let's look at number seven here. I've titled it, lose a trade, win a title. I'm excited for this one. Look, you have a bit of a reputation. around these parts as being maybe an aggressive persistent trader would you agree it's a that's a that's a nice that's a nice way to put it yeah i mean um and and one of the things that i think holds a lot of fantasy players up is they are unwilling to lose a trait perceptively yes and i think that that's a it's a pride thing

It's obviously you're trying to do the work, right? You're trying to make sure that you're on the perceived winning side. Everybody wants to win the trade, right? But what do we define winning the trade as? And, you know, for me this year, what I think is important is that you want to make sure that you're getting the difference-making player on the roster. We've talked about that before in two-for-one, three-for-one trades. But early in the season for me, what I recognize was that there were two players in my mind that were league winners. definitively in fantasy football this year. And they were Alman Ross St. Brown and C.D. Liam. And I know that a lot of players that we have in our league, opponents, teams in our league, when you get into trade discussions, sometimes it's like they have to have the last word, right? They have to have the last tweak to the deal. They have to make sure that they have one little tweak or one little addition. And it can disrupt the ability to get a trade done.

And so the thing I want people to remember is they go into next year. If you have that conviction, the conviction that Mike had about Dak Prescott, the conviction that many of us have about certain players as you get halfway through the year, if you believe somebody is going to be a difference maker slash league winner, what I'm saying is be willing to go out and lose a trade in the public's perception, right, in your league's perception, to get the trade done. You're saying Vante Mac. No matter what. Vant, yes. I'm saying you go Costner. You go Costner. Yes. I don't care if I'm perceived as a winner. I wouldn't trade after number one. Right. To do it, but you know. Do it just no matter what. Don't get bogged down in the tiny minutia details. Don't get bogged down in the little asks and the pesky additions to the trade. If you want to get these players that are very hard to get.

For me, it was waiting for a couple of teams to kind of get on the fringe of contention and then throw the kitchen sink at them to guarantee that I can get one of these players onto my roster. You know, we've talked about the philosophy. Obviously, if you do a two for one, three for one trade, you get to go right to the waiver wire and pick up a couple extra names. If you've traded three for one, I think sometimes people get worried that they're going to be criticized for the trade that they make. But if you have the conviction, like I did, that C.D. Lamb was a must add if I wanted any chance at a championship, be willing to lose the trade in the public perception if you want to win a title. It can make the difference. Don't get bogged down. It's not like every player at the moment a trade is being made is going to play the exact same way the rest of the season. I think sometimes people just get stuck and that's why deals don't get done. Yeah, that's fair. Sometimes it's because we're just cowards.

Yeah, and I think that that is, it's like the fear of the loss is more powerful than the potential of the victory. But we're not playing to win second or third. And I think it's really important to be willing to throw something else in to get the player you need. And it's, I would even tack on a thing at the end of, be willing to, to lose, perceptually lose the trade. And just be willing to be at the end of the day, swing. You may be wrong. I mean, it worked for you this time. Yeah, you could be wrong for sure. But I've done those trades and they get hurt the next week. I mean, that kind of stuff can happen. But the point of you're playing to win. You're playing for first place. You're not playing for second. You're not playing for third. So you have to be willing to take some gigantic swing because if you strike out, whatever, man. It's not the difference between. But if you hit, it's you're talking about a forever championship.

You are, it's very hard to win a title. Very hard. Very difficult. Number six. All right. If the risk is, this is not a catchy title, but it's just, it's right to the point. If the risk is already built into the ADP, don't be afraid. And we have too many players every single year that we're all nervous about a new situation that has happened to that player. But it's, fantasy football is the game of economics. And. Things that happen, we get afraid to draft players, their ADP goes down, and now the risk of everyone being correct, it's already baked in there. It's already in there. Some examples. Stefan Diggs, with Minnesota, was an emerging player where his final three years with the team, what finished as wide receiver 20 in 14 games, wide receiver 11 and 15, 21 in...

15 games. He gets traded to the Buffalo Bills, which I still think at the time with the information we had, Josh Allen did not look like a franchise quarterback. He was coming off of, I believe, two straight years of being the most inaccurate quarterback in the league. And so we all got nervous about Stefan Diggs, who Stefan Diggs looked like a rising superstar who just got banished to a land of mediocrity. And at that time then, he was going in the sixth round as the wide receiver 27. And he has a massive breakout campaign. Josh Allen has the huge massive breakout campaign. So those that had the courage, which my point being, it's not really courage. We were all scared to draft him. And he went in the sixth round. He's drafted as the wide receiver 27. It's like a real Jameson Williams type of risk. That's what I was talking about earlier. It's like it's baked in. Yes.

And that's why I'm in. I'm like, I'll draft James and Williams on the ninth. If I'm wrong, I don't really lose anything. Jamar Chase as a rookie in 2021. It's laughable at this point. The risk was baked in. He was being drafted in the seventh as the wide receiver 30. And that seems that seems so ridiculous that that couldn't have, that couldn't have been possible that we were all so dumb. We let him go into the seven. He had a lot of drops in preseason. He did. And he couldn't catch the ball. And yet he. Just like Jameson Williams. He was 81 for nearly 1,500 yards and 13 touchdowns. Gino Smith takes over as the quarterback for the Seattle Seahawks. Russell Wilson's out. There's panic in the streets. D.K. Metcalfe, who was just the wide receiver 12, was being drafted in the back of the fourth. Tyler Lockett, who was the wide receiver 13 previously, plummets to the wide receiver 40 because it's impossible. These guys can't, there's no way to do it with Gino Smith.

They're both fantastic. Mike Evans this past year. The risk is if it's baked into the ADP, you have very little to lose and you have so much to gain. It's a lot like the way the stock market moves when you're talking about the risk or the situation being baked in because in those situations exactly, people had played the season out already in their minds. Yeah. And then. come up with the worst possible outcome for all of those players. And then that's exactly where you're drafting them. That's, you know, it looks nice now. But that's why Mike Evans was the strongest I've ever been convicted about a my guy ever, which I told you guys that in the studio. It was like, you said that on the show. And it was because he was so undervalued.

And everyone had anticipated a guarantee that this is how the season will play out with Baker Mayfield. There was just not a lot of risk to me in, you know, turning to a player like that. And those examples you brought up are great ones. And identifying those in draft season, you know, more of a challenge, you know, trying to find those players that. Because they're scary. Yeah, they already, they should be scared. And it feels. When you're there and you're at their ADP, you're like, am I going to be the guy to draft this player that's fallen so far from where they were? Like, doesn't that mean they're old busted and I've got to be wiser? But you're right. Like if the risk of them failing means they finish where you're drafting them. Right. Great. There's only upside. Yeah, absolutely. So we'll take another quick break and come back. Jason, I hope you're ready.

Number five. Number five, draft enigmatic backs. Say that again. Draft enigmatic backs. Is that one word? That's one word. It is now. Inigmatic backs. You want to draft enigmatic backs and what I mean by that? Trademark. Yeah. Pat. Go to that domain. Inigmatic backs. Indigmatic backfields are scary. The ones where you just don't know who's the guy. I don't know the situation there. Yeah, so I just, I don't want to go in. Yeah, like that someone else figure it out. Exactly. Someone else will figure out this. We're not even sure who the running back is. So I don't want to take the shot and then just burn the pick. But the thing is, is most of those backfields don't cost you a heavy pick. And there are always emerging assets from that type of backfield where you're not sure who it is. If you look at this last year,

You had the Miami Dolphins. You had a new undersized rookie and Devon A. Chan coming in. And you had a super old veteran and Raheem Mostert. It's a good offense. But like, I don't know, I don't know who the guy is. I don't, I'm just going to let someone else draft him. That's why they were drafted as the running back 42 and the running back 45. Turns out they were, they was okay. Because they finished as the running back 24 and the running back two. Even if they had. Even if Rahim Moster had not finished as a running back too. Of course, hindsight is so easy. But looking back, we all had kind of projected Miami would be a high-powered offense. And it's someone, a running back is going to score. It will not be the running back 40 something. Yeah, but you didn't know who it's going to be. So how would you draft them? Just take your shot. And maybe you're wrong. Like this next backfield.

I was wrong on this backfield, but I don't have any problem admitting that because I saw the shot for one of these enigmatic backfields. The Rams, Cam Acres and Kyron Williams. You had Dan Graziano on August 4th, write this quote. They look at Cam Acres and Kyron Williams as their top two backs, likely in that order. The Rams believe both. can pass protect, but they like Williams a little more as a pass protector than they do Acres. So while Acres is likely the nominal starter, Williams could carve out a roll and be the guy they lean on in the run game if something were to happen to Acres. Something happened. Something happened. I liked Acres. He was the running back 21. That didn't work out. But Kyron, if you took him, which some people drafted him very late or most people picked him up off of waivers.

obviously we know what happened there. He was a sensational superstar. You've got these situations. And it's not always like the Kairn Williams and Rahim Moster number one back coming out. But the commanders last year, is it going to be Gibson? Is it going to be Brian Robinson? You know, they were drafted. Brian Robinson was drafted as the running back 36 because of that. It's like, you know, it's a muddy backfield. And you always, you pretty much because of the value of the workhorse. the Christian McCaffreys and the Saquan Barclays, you're only looking for like that. And I think that's sometimes a mistake because there's only a few of them. But there's a lot of running backs you need. So it's okay to take part of a committee where you're not sure who's going to be the lead guy because it's probably a value in the draft and they will rise out of that. Brian Roberts had finished as a top 24 running back. Well, I think especially in the cases of Miami and Los Angeles, the extra layer there is that you have.

teams that you had tremendous confidence in the running game. You didn't know which running back it would be, but you knew that the Rams could run the football. You didn't know which running back it would be in Miami, but you knew that they were going to have an offense that could run the football. And so I think if you wanted to add an extra qualifier there, you could say like inigmatic backfields, you know, on teams that have a history of being successful or coaches that would be successful there. All right, we'll move on. Number four. Is this, it is my turn, right? It is.

If it's not, it is now. Well, look, I'll be quick. I've titled this one, The Little Things Kill. It's my favorite bush song. That is from a Bush song. Yeah. Oh, yeah. Yeah. That is your favorite. It's just little things. Yeah. All right. And look, this is the 10 things to remember. This is something that I literally did halfway through this season. And the reason I'm bringing it up in part is we are going into season 10. next year at the fantasy footballers and um you know i think that there's probably a few people that are a little bit like me in our league of record where ugly ugly smelly smelly what else you got guys what else too tall bad clothes very much too tall um smelly we're no you already said that one uh but really smelly

You started off real hot. Look, I had a couple of championships early in the League of Record, and if you were listening to the show for a long time, maybe. Maybe you started to take your league over like I thought I was. And about halfway through this year, look, I've been in the midst, I was in the midst of a pretty decent drought of winning championships in League of Record. I had had so much success. Me and Mike played each other in championship games, three straight years a long time ago. Things just felt easy for a while. And then they didn't. You want to know why? Because we started giving them our information. Well, yeah, we started a podcast and told them all of our information. But the truth is that many of you, maybe you had success early on listening, but the competition does get better in your leagues. And I wasn't, honestly, I wasn't willing to accept that. I believe that if I just kept going on the exact same way, it would just all work out like it always had.

I had grown a little bit complacent, and I had to have a meeting about four or five games this year with myself. And it was literally... Did you schedule it? I did schedule it. It's in my Google calendar. Was there a mirror? Oh, incredible. So there was Zoom in a mirror. Right. Yeah. So look, I had the one-on-one meeting with myself, and I said, like, I can't keep doing the same thing I've always been doing. I have to pay attention. to the little things if I want to get back over the hump. For me, that meant a little extra free agent prep every week, which look, on this show we try to help you with, a little bit more persistence on the trade offers or finding those players, I think can be league winners. Sometimes it's not just about trading a bunch. Sometimes it's about doing the work to figure out who you need to trade for, not activity that doesn't lead anywhere, doesn't help you. Sometimes it's paying a little bit more attention to some of the dirty work that's not very fun.

Playoff schedules for players and future schedules for players. Some stuff is more fun and fantasy than others, but it all helps. Those little things help lead to victories and they add up over time. And so I think a lot of us here, maybe we've had success in the past. Maybe you're like, man, I won a title, but it's been four or five, six years. What am I doing wrong? For me, it was the little things. It was a willingness to reevaluate a few small areas. And it led to success this year. It's obviously very difficult to win in fantasy. So I think those things do add up. The little things kill. Went back to the fundamentals. Yeah, really. Doing his push-ups grinding. That's right. It was the meeting, though. It was the 101. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So basically things to remember. Schedule something. Self meetings. Self meetings, yeah. Number three. Let's talk a little dynasty fantasy football here. We're going to call this one, know the thresholds. Hmm.

As in Dynasty, one of the harder things to make a decision on is young wide receivers who aren't immediately superstars. When do I know? When do I know that this, I drafted a lemon and I need to move on? When do I know I got to give somebody some patience here? Like Jamison Williams, do we need to give him patience to grow into the player that the Lions hoped for when they drafted him? Okay. And. So we talk about targets a lot on this show as it's an earned statistic. Because if a player is getting open, is building that trust with their quarterback, they're going to get a target. A route gives context to just the opportunity that the team is giving them. But players can be out there, MVS style, running routes on every single play. Cardio Kings. Getting like three targets a game. And...

You now see where MVS is. He is looking for a new job as they're saying, sir, you have not earned enough targets. We need to look elsewhere. And so we looked back over the last decade. These are at wide receivers drafted in the first three rounds because still draft capital is the king of signal to will a player actually be good or not. So here are the metrics. This is a little heavy in statistics, but bear with me. Through two years on average. A first round wide receiver averages about a 20% target per route run and a 1.68 yards per route run. Second round, wide receivers, their yards per route run at about 1.55 on average. And the third round wide receivers at 1.4. Now, these are simply benchmarks to help guide your decisions. It is not saying if a player is under it, they are 100% toast, but it's you may want to think about this because...

Honestly, through the last decade, the only player who has really resurrected himself from the grave was Devante Adams. That dude sucked. Devante Adams through two years. Remember how hard I was on him? Oh, we were. And I was like he'd never had a thousand yards season because he was at 997. Yeah. I mean, it was just, it wasn't even just that. It was the first two years. It looked terrible for him. I believe it was year two that. Jordy tore his ACL, like right at the beginning of the year. And it was, thank goodness they have Devante Adams. It's your time. And he did not come through. So it was, now this is never going to work out. And now Devante Adams over the last, however long has been one of the best wide receivers in the league. So we're going to take a look back of what we've seen now. This is two years ago because you're collecting the data. At the top of the class, Drake London, Oliva, Garrett Wilson. They're at the benchmarks.

We're not worried about it. Both Christian Watson and George Pickens are sitting above the threshold. They're volatile, definitely. I don't know if we're going to see them turn into studs, but we're okay. Watson and Pickens. Yes, on Christian Watson. Here's now where it gets a little sketch here. We're calling this one, keep the light on because there could be some hope. So maybe if they're on your roster, you're just in a hold position. Jameson Williams. Keep the light on. He is at 1.42 yards per route run, which is under the threshold we want. Again, the threshold is just a kind of a level that you're hoping they're above. Trailing Berks, he's at 1.28. He's sketcher and Wondell Robinson. He's there with Jameson Williams at 1.42. Honestly, just putting James and Williams with those other two guys. Really?

It does not give me a lot of confidence for Jameson Williams. It highlights where he is. Because I don't believe in those other two at all. Keep a dim light on. You know what I mean? He's at the top of that group, right? No, not really. He's tied with Wondale. But Wondale was also not a first round wide receiver. So he's overperforming compared to Jameson Williams. Johan Dotson is on the cliff. Yeah, he's the next tier. That looks scary. And then the guys where you're just where you. I think you can pretty accurately just move on, unfortunately. John Metchie, Houston Texans, Tyquan Thornton, Alec Pierce, Sky Moore and the Sky People. Why are we putting Valus Jones in here? That's just mean to him. Jalen Tolbert, David Bell, who once upon a time was hoped to be the next guy for the Cleveland Browns. Yeah, David Bell's sitting in our dynasty waiver wire if anyone's interested. But we do have a huge article coming out here highlighting all the thresholds and things.

It's just, it's a metric. That's in the Dynasty Pass? Yeah, thank you. It's a metric for you to be aware of because what's nice about Dynasty wide receivers when you draft them, even when they stink in their first year, more often than not, they at least hold their value. Like Sky Moore was, it was atrocious that first year. And there was so many glaring red signs. But now that NBS is gone. So many glaring red signs saying it's not going to work for Sky Moore. I know the draft capital was there. I know the team is there. It doesn't look like it's going to work. But the hope was still there. Like there were still things of you could trade Skymore over that first off season. I'm not sure you're going to be able to trade Skymore this far into the process. So be aware how a wide receiver where they were drafted compared to how they're performing through their first two years to help you make a real educated decision about do I wait this out?