THE UNOFFICIALFOOTBALLERSFAN ARCHIVE↗Transcript links use the exact YouTube video’s clock. Machine transcripts can contain errors.
Jason answers the Never Again prompt with Breece Hall, says he wants out but cannot quit the talent and pass-catching hope, predicts one big Week 1 will restore 'we're back,' and finally declares himself out only until draft day before reverting to TBD.
Andy says Kyler Murray has reached Never Again because a quarterback with those tools should work but often does not. The old eleven-rushing-touchdown season is remembered only before drafts and jokingly discarded as unreal, while bad Kyler games both start and finish slowly.
Mike names Jalen Waddle as the player he cannot stop drafting, insists Waddle is good-to-great, watches an F consistency grade become a proposed G, and still takes him over George Pickens while imagining the gross face that would accompany the pick.
A vivid Trending or Ending package earns immediate praise, and the hosts say hiring a graphics person finally made the old graphics hand thirsty enough to step up, spend more than six minutes, and improve after ten years.
The phrase top-six running back followed by Kyren Williams's consecutive RB6 finishes creates a three-six pattern, and the desk declares that Jason can see a 666 faster than anybody.
The hosts ask Owl how his season went after noting that Kyren managers won championships. Jeremy says it went well, confirms he had Kyren and has a trophy, and the published Deucers Alley cut shows him raising a translucent pink-purple football-shaped trophy from the right workstation.
The hosts compare Alvin Kamara near age 30 to an unkillable cockroach and say he will permanently remain a Trending or Ending question until he is not merely ending but fully washed.
Jason explicitly says he has shifted from his historical anti-rookie-tight-end position. After consecutive exceptional rookie hits and changing NFL integration, he now targets fresh late-round rookies ahead of veteran bets such as Dalton Kincaid that have already failed.
When the hosts reach the last portion of the draft, quartile is corrected into Jason's established 'turtile' language. They then turn reduced fear of rookie tight ends into a mock ceremony of being open and opening their hearts.
Complete review of the published episode and targeted direct-video frames shows only Mike, Jason, and Andy at the main desk: Mike is left in a red NASA hoodie and gray-tan cap, Jason is center in a black shirt, black cap, and glasses, and Andy is right in a gray shirt and white cap. The black bear at 00:04 belongs to the generic opening montage, the five-human WITH THE DUCERS card is a produced title image, and the large green-purple Fantasy Faceoff helmet is a static desk prop; none is Jay Griz or a cardboard-bear appearance. The hosts turn a Never Again prompt into three admissions of irresistible draft temptation. Jason wants out on Breece Hall but remains hopeful, predicts one big Week 1 will make him say 'we're back,' and finally declares himself out only until draft day. Andy says Kyler Murray should work, discards the old eleven-rushing-touchdown stat until it can tempt him again, and describes games that start and finish slowly. Mike keeps insisting Jalen Waddle is good even after an F becomes a proposed G and says he would make a gross face while drafting him. A directly published TRENDING OR ENDING bumper then fills the screen with purple, cream, and green animation, a football streak, repeated typography, three host cutouts in neon-retro streetwear, and cassette-boombox-VHS-like props. The hosts credit a newly hired graphics person with making the old graphics hand spend more than six minutes and improve after ten years. Kyren's paired RB6 finishes activate Jason's instant 666 detector. During the resulting championship tease, the camera cuts to Deucers Alley: a producer in white sits center, the left chair is empty, and Jeremy at right in a neon yellow-green polo, cap, and headphones raises a translucent pink-purple football trophy while answering that he rostered Kyren and has a trophy. Kamara becomes a cockroach that age cannot kill and is forecast to remain in Trending or Ending until he is simply washed. Jason then explicitly reverses his historical anti-rookie-tight-end doctrine and prefers fresh late-round rookies to failed veteran bets such as Dalton Kincaid. The segment closes by recalling Jason's 'turtile' language and opening the hosts' hearts to rookie tight ends. No player image or illustrative insert accompanies any of those desk stories.
Okay. It went pretty well. Did you have Kyron? I did. You got a trophy? I do. Okay. Well, let's just, let's put it to the test real quick, because maybe, maybe I'm wrong. You're taking Sequin over him. You're taking Gibbs over him. Yes. You're taking Bejan over him. Yes. Are you taking, are you taking A-chan over it? No. Or Henry. Henry, yeah, maybe. Henry and Kyron are. Henry and where are you with me on McCaffrey, Jay? Are you ready to? Yeah, are you taking CMC? Are you taking CMC? I would take McCaffir. I would take Karen. You're trending then. Yeah, I'm definitely trending. I, you know, he was one of those guys. I feel like maybe I should be trained. Going into last year that I was very personally bullish on not being Blake Corumed that Kyron was super good for this offense.
and that they wanted to use him the way that they did and had success with. And I am still just as bullish going into this next season. But I love his that that is not very, it's not widespread. That is not universal. A lot of people have doubts. Let me give you some numbers on Kyran and then we'll look at the underdog ADP, which is kind of wild. He has led the NFL in each of the following categories as a red zone player. Red zone touches. percentage of teams rush attempts inside the red zone rushing touchdowns inside the five which is 14 of them and over the last two years he has 31 total touchdowns and 28 games played where only gibbs can match that yeah so that that's what i was talking about and his underdog 80s is rb is rb 12 but of 46 qualifying running backs with 100 or more carries
Kyron was 44th in explosive rush rate, which is percentage of your carries that go for more than 15 yards. He was 45th in fumbles. He was 34th in yards per carry. Again, over those 46 qualifying running backs who had the 100 plus carries. So the efficiency, it could compare to- Is he a Super Naji? No. No, I think he's better than Super Noggi. I mean, based on those numbers, you're telling me that Naji had a higher explosive run rate. Well, yeah, I mean, specifically 15-yard runs or more. That's just not really his style of play. When I think a players that are at that level of like you score a bunch of touchdowns, you're super involved in the offense. Nashi does come to mind a little bit. That's why I was. I got you. I was curious. I think he's better than Naji. I just, he's on the cusp of contract situation too, right? And they've at least vocally come out and said they want. They want to try to extend them a long-term deal. Get him a deal.
I guess not learned their Todd Gurley lesson. He's at 4.1 of carry. Yeah, down from five. Well, he won't get Todd Gurley money. No, no, no. I'm just saying don't pay lots of money to extend running backs. I mean, 356 total opportunities last year up from 276 the year before. Yeah, that's a beast. That was, you know, he had missed some games the year before, but that was the year he ended so strongly. There was almost nobody better than him over the back. half of the year he was on 378 opportunity pace that year yeah I mean and he pretty much hit that two years ago when he was the running back six he only played 12 games I'm switching oh all right I'm going trending I think I think he's my five or six and that would put him in trending I who in the world so RB 12 in best ball
Correct. Give me some of those names ahead of him. Is it, is like Mixing ahead of him? He's been in like what, like the third round. So right ahead of him, with Breece Hall. Breece Hall ahead of him. Yeah, Breece Hall is one spot ahead of him. Bucky Irving. That's an interesting one. Bucky or Kyron. Who's got the higher chance of being the RB one on the year? Bucky or Kyron. I. I think Kyron. Because I'm trying to figure out why he's 12. Because in best ball, maybe, I feel like they would rank players that they believe could have a higher ceiling somehow. Yeah. I'm telling you, people hate Karin Williams. Explosive plays do make an impact. I feel like people hated Josh Jacobs. But Josh Jacobs keeps being productive and people hate him too. Yeah. Yeah, where is Jacobs going? Josh Jacobs is at the RB9 on Underdog right now. It, the.
Oh, Ashton Genties up there. Going from Kyran's sophomore year where he was everything to he's still great for fantasy football, but you saw the efficiency dip way back. That's usually a pretty big red flag. But if this team is committed to him getting that amount of work, he can easily do what he did last year and then has room to be better. Do you, what is your formal? Is it trending or ending for you, Mike? Between those two, I would say, closer to trending. Okay. We'll, we've got a couple more names for you after the break. Trending or ending Alvin Camara, the last two years, he's averaged 15 plus fantasy points per game. He is. He's just like a cockroach. On the edge of 30, you can't kill him. No, you cannot. In fact, he went from 15 points per game to a low ADP to 16 and a half points per game last year.
And just for context, here is a list of running backs age 30 plus to average 15 plus fantasy points per game since 2010. Our good old friend Fred Jackson, Adrian Peterson in 2015, Mark Ingram in 2019, Mostert last year and Henry last, or sorry, Mostert two years ago, Henry last year. Camara has played eight seasons and assuming I'm doing this correct real quick. That was his fourth best season in points per game. Gosh. That's the value. And it's two years after trying to kill him. People try to end him. Yeah, I mean, I'm pretty sure he was their leading receiver in receptions last year. So you look at that wide receiver. Yeah, well, that's, it's the receiver room, but it's also Derek Carr type of play at the beginning there. Yeah, I mean, but he's got Derek Carr and he's got a bad receiver core.
So, like, why would we think that that's going to change? Now, you can easily make the ending case because it will end based on age. And you could say, you know, if his efficiency keeps just getting worse, he can be targeted but not be, I mean, 15 fancy points per game is a very, very high bar and half PPR to get. And he just signed a two-year, $24.5 million contract in October. Oh, man. The bet on Camara. $22 million of guaranteed money. And his, what is his, uh, ADP? Uh, let me find it for you. He's RDB 18 in best ball. 18. So going right around. He will permanently be in this category for the rest of his career and whether he outperformance or not will be the trending or ending question. Yeah, it'll, it'll just be when does it end? You know, it's not ending. It's like over. He's going to be good until the, until, you know, he's washed. And he did the right. I mean, like he.
played the drop my ADP game really well, which was he had a low ADP, played amazing, then got hurt and sat out your playoffs and hurt you. And, you know, now he's back probably underdrafted. Yeah. I could have used him against you, Mike. Yeah, I get that. The weirdness, the swinging of the pendulum of how wild we're willing to go with this. It was like last year, not only did running back stay healthy. and were awesome, like old running backs that we have historically been able to bet against very successfully. You have a strong probability chance if you say this running back is 28, 29. Not for me. They all worked out last year. They all worked out. Mixing and Jacobs. It's like, oh, dude, it can't. That has to be an anomaly. Well, the bar here for trending or ending is the 15 plus fantasy points per game, which he was only barely.
You know, he was right on in 23, barely ahead of it in 24. You know, you got Kellamore coming in. I don't know how that impacts your view of the team. I think I'm going to go ending. I think he's going to be a fantasy relevant 12 to 14 points per game guy. Yeah, I actually agree with you that he probably does not get to 15. But I'm totally in on him next year. This is, if the bar is only will he get to 15 fantasy points per game? Probably not because you will have some changes there with the coordinator and the offense as a whole. But he is obviously the best, most reliable offensive weapon. So he'll be targeted a lot in the passing game. He'll be used around the goal line. He'll be good for fantasy. But I doubt, you know, and I wouldn't be surprised if they draft another. They've got to plan for their future at running back. There's such a loaded running back.
uh draft class and it it seems like kindre miller is not it so i would i think i would be surprised i'd be surprised if we go through the draft and they don't draft drawing back so in on alva camara not on 15 fantasy points a game mike uh it's a coppa but i'm with jason all right uh let's pivot from a player to a fantasy trend that we've seen for two straight years rookie tight-in dominance for fantasy football. And it's fair to say dominance because in 23, rookie Sam Leporta was the tight-end one. In 2024, rookie Brock Bowers was the tight-end one. And this year, Tyler Warren, Colston Loveland, both projected to be top 20 picks, at least according to the mock drafts that we've been seeing.
Both very talented. Jason, you just did a dynasty episode on these tight ends. So I'd love to hear from you first. I know it's been a, you know, it's hard because you have history over long periods of time, but you have transition in team philosophies. You also have talent questions with Leporta and Bowers that obviously they worked out perfectly, but they weren't necessarily the most. Like we've had Pitts and we've had Kincaid and we've had other players. So where were you on Warren and Loveland from a talent perspective? From a talent perspective, they're very good. I've got Warren ahead. And I also personally like Fanon a lot as another incoming. Harold. Harold Fanon, Jr. So there's, to me, there are three tight ends being drafted this year that have a real opportunity to make an impact on fantasy football.
this year right away. Obviously, Brock Bowers is his own thing. Yes. And I'm not saying that the trend is another tight end to one season here. We're going. But I shifted and I said this, I said this last year because I have been historically a very anti- rookie tight end for fantasy. And, you know, the hit rate on that is. Pretty much like 92%, but the fails were the last two years on two specific players. That part of the trend I do think is real. I think you've got to look at modernity with the NFL and see how these players are integrated earlier in their playing careers at tight end. And the NFL is a copycat league when they see some of these...
rookies come in and make an impact right off the bat. More and more teams are going to allow those, especially the highly drafted players, to get plugged into the offense earlier. So the combination of this year being a really good tight-in draft class with the last few years what's happened in the NFL, I certainly think it's a trend. And, you know, I said it on our episode, our previous episode, that some of the late round tight ends that I'll be targeting might be these rookies over like a Dalton Kincaid who we've seen have a couple years and has a ton of opportunity and still has talent. But, you know, he's failed. I'm going to take a shot at someone that is fresh and could jump on the scene and make an impact. What do you think, Mike? So trending like La Porta last year was 60, 726 yards and 7 touchdowns.
Okay, if you want to give me that stat line and say that either Warren or Loveland hit that, I think that's possible. We're in a weird, like the combination of Leporta and Bowers to me, finishing as the overall number one fantasy tight ends. I think it is a, the Leporta one is throwing off like your radar where Leporta came in and as a rookie and had 10 touchdowns. Like that's. Sam the Port is great. But is he going to be a 10 touchdown every single year type of guy? I don't think so. And on top of that, tight end scoring that year was incredibly low. Brock Bowers then coming in here feeling like, oh, well, the trend is rookie tight ends can be this type of an impact. Brock Bowers, go watch Brock Bowers, go watch Brock Bowers, film in college, and then watch Warren and Loveland. Like these.
It's not the same. That was exactly what I did. Brock Bowers is, he's so much better than those guys. And I really like Warren and Loveland, but Brock Bowers is a truly special player where Warren and Lovelin feels more like Likland based on what you're saying. Uh, you know. Boston. That's not good. I don't know. It's not good. It's the last 10 minutes of the show. So, give it a whirl. Like, trending that if you're going to say one of these. tight ends finishes in the top 10, okay. But I think the bigger question is, will one of them be impactful? Yeah. Because of tight end seven, like if you had Leporta, unless you survived and made it to the playoff run where he was awesome, you were, he was killing you throughout the season. Yeah, it makes sense. I think I lean, you know how it is. Tightens are thin. It's a thin group of guys. And when you look at the back,
you know, quartile, as Jason would say. Ah, yes. Of your draft. Well, he would go turtile. Turtile. Oh, I'm sorry. The final turtile of your draft. And you look at the decisions to make with it, is it a Kincaid or a Pitts or a friar muth or even a Njoku without a quarterback or you can take a shot on maybe a better situation for a rookie tight end? I think we no longer have to be scared of it. I think that might be part of the headline here. Let's not be, let's not be so frightened. Let's be open. That's fair. Let's be open to situation. We will open our hearts. Yes. To these rookie tight ends. Yeah. A reminder, everybody, the ultimate draft kit. You can find it at ultimate draft kit.com. That includes all of our tier based rankings, our premium stat projections. We've got 100 plus player profile videos. We've got our custom cheat sheet creators. We've got sleepers, breakouts, busts, and values for your draft. We've got our custom player marking tools.
and a ton of other resources to help you win at your draft, including the Dynasty Pass. So if you play in a Dynasty League, that's part of the UDK Plus as well. All of these tools and resources you can learn more about and pick them up at the pre-order pricing at Ultimate DraftKit.com if you want to head over there and check that out. Otherwise, NFL draft is April, right? Yeah. Dude. Yeah. Yeah, this is how it works now, Mike. Oh, man. It's nonstop. So very much looking forward to it. Thank you for joining us on today's episode of the show. We'll catch you again on Thursday. Take care, everybody. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on join thefoot.com. And follow us on Twitter at the FF ballers.