NFC North Breakdown + Surprise Team Picks - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/20

to the fantasy footballers podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Welcome in. Saturday, July 20th, the fantasy footballers. Are you writing down the date, Jason? Yeah, wait. This is how he learns the date. This is the 20th? When the show starts. That's crazy. Where is his calendar? Because that's later than you thought? We're so close. We're so close to August. to everyday shows to football and drafts. Are you ready for the everyday shows? Like, have you been? I am. I am totally ready. I've, uh, I did my, I did my fasting and, um, I'm prepped. Okay. Well, I mean, it's coming quick. We've got camp and then we've got preseason. And then, uh, I begin my title defense in our league of record. Are you, I mean, you've got to be looking forward to that. I remember the feeling.

Which, have we talked about our draft? You mean the fact that our League of Record draft is happening the day of kickoff? That's what I'm talking about. We are giving that a go this year. First time ever, like scheduling, as you all know, scheduling your draft, an online draft can be extremely difficult, add in that it's an in-person draft and people are traveling even harder. Well, we decided to take it up a notch and say, This is when it's going to be. So everyone figured this out. We decided on the draft last year of we're going to draft that Thursday that, look, I guess when you run the company, we call it a half day. And we're bringing everybody in. And drafting that day, having the big draft party, and then seeing players that night. It is so exciting. I'm curious, what does it do to strategy? Because there's going to be people who just.

You think they just draft to watch the... Oh, people are going to reach on ADP to get a player in that game. Because we're going to be watching it together as a league. Yep. That will be fun. I'm so poised for it. We just need to make sure we get through the draft before the kickoff. I love that Mike's like, oh, we'll do a half day. There ain't no work that day at all. I was trying to save face for the people, Jason. We will have to record a show. That's a holiday. Yeah, I mean, it'll be fun. It'll be record the show and then work done. Hey, it's me, Al, and I've got a solo episode today. I'm hoping for a better year in Dynasty. Does that a good impression, Al? It was spot on. Yeah. It's better than his other voice. That's me. Hey, guys. Sorry, Al. We love you. Divisional breakdowns. We're into the NFC today taking on the NFC North.

So that'll be fun. We've got a great quick question. I'm excited to talk through. It's a team question. So we'll get to that shortly. The live show in Los Angeles coming up very soon as well, Jason. Once we hit August, that'll be here before you know it. Saturday, August 24th at Palace Theater, ballerslive.com for that. And of course, the ultimate draft kit available right now. Dominate your draft. Prep up. Get ready. You know, if you. want to overcome all of the tilt and the tilt potential that comes with draft day, which it's real. Everybody's got a great plan, and then, you know, pick or two in, you start to freak out. Jump into the ultimate draft kit. The best thing you can do there is just kind of learn. Like, we try to equip you with that tool to make decisions in the context of your league and league format. It's a lot.

different than it was 20 years ago when everybody played in the exact same league with the exact same type of format limited scoring options everybody plays in in nuanced leagues now and our job on this show every day and with the ultimate draft kit is to equip you to be able to make contextual decisions for your team which means things like the upside and risk rankings so when you make picks in the first few rounds you are balancing your team out with upside, with risk, with opportunity, with depth. And you're drafting based on tiers. You're taking a look at making sure that it's not just like, oh, this player is ranked three spots ahead of that player, but it's like, oh, this player is basically the same as five players later. Let me go to a different position. It's a good tool. If you haven't used it in the past, it, I mean, we hear every year how much that has helped people. So yeah, check it out, ultimate draft kit.com. And yeah, just to the customizable.

settings side, you do import your league settings so that your rankings are specific to your league and your league context, so it helps you a little bit better. Our quick question of the day is simple. It is which team do you believe will surprise for fantasy football? We are in the middle of the divisional breakdowns. There's a couple teams on today's show I thought about going with. Me too. But I feel like we're going to talk about those teams, so I pump the brakes. Was that a chicken? That was like one lonely chicken with one breath left. It's dying. But I, you know, I will go with a team that we've talked about already on the AFC Divisional Breakdown shows. You are a madman. I'm going to go with Tennessee. That would be surprising. Tennessee is a team that, look, every year.

I'm going to repeat myself all offseason. There's a handful of teams that you think are going to be terrible that provide not just medium but tremendous fantasy football value. Last year, drafting a Houston Texan was not something anybody wanted to do or tried to do. And there was value top to bottom on that roster from the wide receiver core that surprised to a rookie quarterback to a tight end to Devon Singletary. This year's C.J. Stroud, according to Andrew Holloway, is Will Levis. Honestly? You heard it here. I don't mind that comp. I don't mind that comp because you've been the one all offseason talking about how C.J. Stroud's numbers weren't really that wild. I think those kind of numbers could be put up by Will Levis. You have an offensive coordinator there bringing this, you know, Sinsey South.

with a high pass rate over expectation, with two running backs that catch the football. When I look at surprise teams for fantasy, the fact that they're going to pivot to a pass-heavy offense with two borderline elite wide receivers, with Hopkins at this stage in his career, Calvin Ridley, two running backs that can catch the football, Taj Spears and Tony Pollard. They're not a bad defense. They're middle of the pack defense. So I'm not worried about their philosophy being the old school Vrable. We're going to try to hit you in the mouth and then run the football down your throat. So to me, yes, I'm going to include Will Levis in that pack of five names that I think Will Levis will be streamed by people this year. I agree with that. I think he will start to enter the territory of the ancient James Winston days at minimum of like, look, this guy's going to chuck it down the field. And he's got players that are going to beat people down the field. You know, that is, he didn't have Calvin Ridley last year. And.

You know, now he's got a full off season, right? He took over during part of last year. This is a big step in opportunity. No, I actually really like. I love making fun of takes, but at the same time, it's really, it's a really smart take. If you look at where ADP is, and we know every year that there are teams like this that are just undervalued offensively, and then they take a step forward. There's a lot of reasons, you know, the Calvin Ridley, Tony Pollard, change of head coach. A year two. Year two for the quarterback. There are so many of those, like those can all be yellow flags. Like if this was a really good offense the year before, you could be worried, but they weren't a great offense. And so I like that. Let me throw one more stat out there. Kyle mentioned this, and I'm not predicting Tennessee will win the division, but just to show the kind of turnover in the NFL, since 2015, at least one team drafting inside the top 10 has won their division the same year.

Yeah, I mean, almost. So that's nine straight years of somebody in the top 10 making the jump. First to first. To first. Yeah. I'm going to go next. Mike, you took the team that I was really close to take in here, but I want to highlight the charges. I put it in after you, though. Well, but that's what I'm saying. I was really, I was between these two teams. So I obviously already love your take. For me, it's the Chargers. The Chargers are. Maybe it won't surprise you, but it will certainly surprise the average draft position of all these players because they are not drafted like they are like a bottom five offense right now. There's a lot made of the loss of weapons and a lot made of this is a team that wants to come in and run the ball with Harbaugh and Greg Roman. Ladd McConkey's their first wide receiver.

And I'm seeing him being drafted as wide receiver 41. He is in the eighth round. The eighth round is their first player drafted on Sleeper. Gus Edwards is in the 10th round. Justin Herbert is in the 10th round. You're paying nothing. The first player on the Chargers is drafted in the eighth round. That's correct. For a team with almost what, like a projected 10 wins? I think they are eight and a half. Some platforms have them at nine and a half. But yeah, this is a team that has a good coach. This is a team that has a great quarterback. No one is, you know, despite the lacking of playoff victories, Justin Herbert is a great quarterback. You have also an offensive coordinator here. When I look at history and things that are repeatable, I like finding an offensive coordinator who has 10 seasons as an OC and seven of his 10 years have been a top 10 scoring offense. When I look at my team-by-team projections in the UDK,

I've got the Chargers is one of the most efficient offices on a yards per play basis because I think this is going to be a hyper efficient team. And so this is where I think at the end of the year we're going to look back and be like, man, Gus Edwards was a 10th round pick. Ladd McConkey was an eighth. That's the hard part for that. Right. Maybe it's Palmer. Maybe it's Ladd. Maybe it's huge. Like if I just gave you one for free to pick from the roster, that's the differentiator between Tennessee and and. The Chargers are probably a better football team. I mean, I think we all would acknowledge that. Tennessee, I can point at four guys and say those are the four guys that I would take the shot on. I'm not sure who to take the shot on in Los Angeles. Yeah, I mean, for me, my belief in Lad being the primary target, it's easier. But obviously, I don't think it's bad to take a shot on any of them because you're not paying a lot. And one of these wide receivers will be a relevant.

you know, top 36 wide receiver for sure. Take a late round shot at a surprise. Yeah, Palmer, Quentin Johnson. The team is going to be better than how we're currently drafting them in fantasy football. I think you should take Quentin Johnson. I think that's who you should. I think that should be your dude. Well, I will take him off of the waiver wire for free. Oh, man. I will pay you a lot to make Quentin Johnson you're my guy. A lot. We'll have to talk. I've got a golden ticket here, Andy. I could change your opinion on anything. Okay. All right. Mike, surprise team for fantasy. You can go either direction, by the way, if you want to pick it. Oh, I went with a positive one. Okay. And it's the Seattle Seahawks. I think that their offense will be better than they are currently being valued like the Chargers where they have a higher drafted player in D.K. Metcalf who is, let me check it real quick. He is going as the wider receiver 23 in the fourth round.

Meanwhile, let's see, where did D.K. finish? He was, the wide receiver 16 last year. So in the year where everything felt like it was terrible for Seattle, he was still the wide receiver 16, 18 the year before that. So they are not being valued that way. And there is a way that you can look at the stats and go, it was, they just missed. Like Gino's, Gino Smith's, yards per game. Passing yards per game, very similar. 10 yards different per game. His adjusted completion percentage, that's when you take out throwaways and things that were the wide receiver's fault. Basically identical to what he had two years ago when he led the league in completion percentage. They were 11th in yards per play. But they dropped from 9th as a scoring offense down to 17th because they were 32nd in time of possession. And they have made huge sweeping changes.

More specifically to me, the OCJ, what you brought him up. Ryan Grub from the University of Washington. Many times. And it's the second year of JSN. They are fascinating to me of like we've seen their quarterback be more than competent. We've seen him be very good. D.K. Maybe not everyone looks at him and says that's a superstar. But D.K. Metcalf is regarded as a very good wide receiver in the NFL. Tyler Lockett had a down year. Yep, they still brought him back, right? He got a... Yeah, he got a deal. He got a contract. He's on my dynasty team, so I got him a deal. He got a contract extension. It's year number two for the first receiver drafted in the 2022 draft. Like, it's so wild of... Who did come into the year injured last year? Yeah, yeah. He had the risk problem. Didn't get a full season. And it's like, this should be...

a really high-powered offense, and yet we are, the drafters are not treating them anything like that. We've been here before with Seattle two years ago. They were one of the most underrated. They were Siberia. They were one of the most underrated groups that benefited fantasy players the most when they took a shot on. It's not impossible, which by the way, we did a mock draft episode on Thursday. You can go back and listen to it. Kyle the Borgogan participated with us. Tyler Laca was either. I believe he was the last round of that draft. And you're seeing him, I mean, we were in Scotty Fish. Yep. Which I think we took Lockett. We did. It was like in the 59th round. That's what it felt like. And so, but there's a world where like three weeks into the season, we're all shaking her head going, oh, yeah, Tyler Lockett is just the same type of player. He had a bad year. And he's still good. And on top of all of those things.

Like where, you know, like Tennessee has a, you're like, I think they have a middle of the road defense. The Chargers, could it be a middle of the road defense? I think Seattle's defense is going to be stinky doo-do. And you get a high-powered offense and a bad defense. Brother, that is where it is at. Yes, we do root for bad defenses. Sorry. So 30th and yards allowed and dead last and first downs allowed. If they want to continue that. Yeah. Pease and thank you. Oh my goodness. Good thoughts, Jay. We will take a break. We'll come back with our divisional breakdown. Please and thank you. No, I believe it was peas. Oh, yeah. It was real cute. That is what I heard. It was pleased, but you said please. I did hear peas. I thought you said peas. Peas. I heard. Yeah. I thought it was one of those more.

Howell said you said peas. All right. Do we have it unanimous? We'll have to check the tape on that one. Hold on. No, hold on. From my heart, it was please and thank you. You were telling me you believed you didn't say peas? I am saying I attempted to say please. It's my goal. You missed a whole letter. Well, I'm going to have to rewind. I genuinely thought this was another one of the more household like. Yeah, I did too. Phrases like his little, uh, no tanks. Set my piggies free or whatever else he's got. All right, let's jump into the divisional breakdowns. Let's get divisional. Welcome to the NFC. We are starting with the NFC North, looking at a very fun division, I think, to break down with lots of fantasy football players that are going to be relevant this year. Taking a look at players heading onto these rosters and leaving, rookies, coaches, offensive philosophies, and where we see this division.

at the end of the season. So, you know, Detroit was the story of last year, 12 and 5, Green Bay at 9 and 8, the emergence of Jordan Love. Minnesota went through injury nightmares with Jefferson and cousins going down, cousins out the door, and then Chicago, you know, number one pick in the draft. Well, that was the traded four pick. Correct. Yes. They had the opportunity to, I mean, that's the headline for them. As Caleb Williams arrives, Justin Fields departs, and there's a lot of optimism, right? Like the, I mean, spoiler alert for later in the show, but coach of the year, odds, the number one most likely coach of the year right now. Guns Mahoney? No, it's Matt Iberflus with Chicago. So there's expectations there throughout this division. And we'll start with the talk of the town last year, Detroit, 12 and 5.

They were up by 17 points at halftime in the NFC title game. Yeah, this was, they were right on the cusp of the Super Bowl, still a hugely successful year. And I'm just going to tell you right now, like, if this wasn't the division we were covering today, I would have talked about them in that, in that quick question about the team to surprise, because I think that Detroit is going to be so. unbelievably good this year. So you think they're going to surprise, because their expectations are sky high for them. I just think, yes, because I think there are opportunities for surprise on this team. So we have the tight end one in eight, the port is number one in AP, right? Ammon Ra's what, like wide receiver five maybe? Gibbs is right around there too. Well, I just think you're going to have upper echelon performances in particular from Gibbs golf and.

the surprise performance from Jameson Williams in a full season in an offense that I think will be the best in football. I mean, we have talked extensively about the beginning of the season for Jared Goff and what this offense should be able to do. This is the fourth in points per game last year, eighth in pace of play. They had a top 10 fantasy quarterback last year. They had two of the top 12 fantasy running backs. They have a projected win total of 10 and a half going into this year. I am just. Like it's coming together and they have the coaching staff to keep things. Yeah. Much like Shanahan in like San Francisco. We are no longer surprised when they just do what they do, right? The machine keeps going. I am expecting that Sands injuries from Detroit. They fell short of their goal last year. Ben Johnson, the office of coordinator, who had overtures from lots of teams. He's on the way back.

The defense, in my opinion, will improve. I am just, I'm enamored with Detroit from a fantasy perspective. From an NFL perspective, I completely, completely get it. And really, fantasy, I'm a big fan as well. There's a team that's favored in 13 of their 17 games. And they have probably one of the greatest total number of continuity, players, coaches, like this is the same team running it back. They just paid Jared Gough. $200 plus million. Yeah, they've got the second most expensive offensive line in the league, which is currently going into this season, PFF's number one ranked offensive line. And Jared Goff is... Give him an offensive line. Exactly. Like, he is not the world's best quarterback. But if you protect him and give him a pocket, he's going to sure look like he's up there with the best of the best. And so, yeah, I do totally get it. But their defense, I think, will be improved.

that will maybe help the running game, maybe hurt the passing game a little bit. And there are some question marks here from fantasy. You said you, I don't know if you said you expect Jameson Williams to take a step forward. Absolutely. But in the, I mean, what does that mean? Because a step forward could be like maybe he has 500 years. No, fantasy relevance. Beyond the world of do I start Josh Reynolds, their one departure. Like a meaningful, a meaningful role with meaningful production. not top 12. I mean, I'm just talking about a regular expectation going into the week that Jameson Williams is going to be a part of the gameplay, which I think can happen. And I do think, I mean, I know that you're paying a premium on Sam Laporta. I think it's very possible that Sam Laporta delivers on that. Like, the reason we don't like him isn't because we don't think Sam Laporta is good. It's just because you have to pay so much. So you're making a bet about repeating.

especially in the touchdown total, it's very difficult to do year to year. And so you're saying, hey, I don't want to take that risk when I can get value on Mark Andrews. I can get value on Kyle Pitts and Dalton Kincaid and these other guys. The return on your investment is lower because Sam Leporta, let's say he finishes again as the tight end one. Is he blowing away the number two tight end by like multiple points per game? I don't think so, which he has to. Probably not. but if the number two tied in isn't the one you thought that it was going to be, then it might not matter. You know what I'm saying? Yeah. If he blows away the next two or three. It would have to be that he'd have to beat out Kelsey, McBride, and Andrews by multiple points per game. And he's 212, right? We're not in the gronk territory or Kelsey. He's not a first round draft pick. I'm just saying there's an outcome in my opinion. You're attached to one of the best offenses in football.

there's an outcome where just Leporta is clearly the number one. Yeah, that's why he's being drafted as the number one. I find myself a little bit more out just based on like regression data. This is a player who had 10 touchdowns on 889 yards. His expectation was more like 6.5 touchdowns. And over the last decade, every single tied in with 10 touchdowns under 900 receiving yards regressed pretty heavily in touchdowns the next year. So that's my only fear. But you also have a rookie going into year two. Correct. And at tight end, who's to say, you know, that he's not going to take a leap forward as a player. The opportunity is there without Josh Reynolds. And if you don't believe in Jameson Williams, which I got the underlying thought that maybe you don't. Yeah, I don't. Oh, no, Jason. Yeah, I'm so sad for you. Well, it's crazy because you and I loved him. That's why I'm sad. He was kind of in the league. So you giving up on him is just.

shows your conviction is weak. Yeah, it shows my conviction is weak where I stay water and look at what happens. Your conviction is rough, and my victory lap continues. Yeah, I mean, he's just, he's been on the field so much and done so little that it's very difficult. But yeah, I love them coming out of college. He's my number two wide receiver. And I'm one million percent fine taking a shot on him. He's in the 10th round is the wide receiver 48. He's got explosive speed on one of the best offenses as the number two wide receiver. There's plenty. I'll draft plenty of James and Williams. I assume it's not going to work. I assume it's not going to work for him. But the risk reward is 100% there. There's almost no risk. And the reward could be a really exhilarating season. Mike, talk about that early season schedule. Oh, brother. So we open up at home against the Los Angeles Rams. And look for if you've been in fantasy football.

Jared Goff at home in the dome is that you know you can play him. And then especially if you add in, this is a defense that we expect you'll be able to beat. That's when Jared Goff really thrives. You open at home against the Rams. Then week two is at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which maybe they fix some things, but at least last year this, that was a team. That was a secondary that you knew you could exploit for crazy yardage. Week three on the road against Arizona, week four, against Seattle, the defense I just proclaimed to be doo-doo. So, I mean, like, this four-game stretch is really set up for the Lions as a whole and for Jared Goff if, like, if you are waiting. And we've kind of talked about the strategy of we really like Jane Daniels as a sleeper quarterback because he's going so late. But if you're not comfortable.

going into the season only with him as your guy going a combo of golf and Daniels is like it's such a good start to me. Jared Goff has three like the Lions have three total outdoor games in the year. That's what I'm talking about. So he's always been better home and dome as you said. His games at Ford Field over the last two years. His pace was 4,700 yards and 43 passing touchdown. That's insane. So let let's let me flip it to the other side because it's Detroit. So sometimes things can go wrong. And so if there's a player that is going to be drafted with expectation that does not perform, is it David Montgomery? Is it Jared Goff? What is the name for you? I mean, in truth, most of the time when a player really, really turns out to be a very bad pick, it's an injury. Jamir Gibbs is an undersized running back that you're drafting in the first round.

So he probably carries the most risk, right? David Montgomery is a sixth rounder. And while David Montgomery, you know, I've got him projected to lose quite a bit of work to Jemir Gibbs. I've got Jemir Gibbs as my running back three this season. The passing volume that I expect Jemir Gibbs to have in this offense is outstanding. The fact that Jemir Gibbs, I didn't even realize until prepping for the show, he had 10 rushing touchdowns. That's crazy. He was outstanding as a rookie. Most rookies who perform well as a running back in rookie season, they increase in the next year. And I don't see how you don't give him more work. So really it's injury risk with him. I think when he's on the field, he's going to be outstanding. And I'm not going to shy away because he's so fast. Sometimes he doesn't get tackled. You know, he's like running out of bounds past people. Only 316 receiving yards for Gibbs. So again, if you're out on Jameson Williams and you look at where vacated targets can leak into.

It can be the running back position historically where we saw the workload increase for Jemir Gibbs over the back half of the year. I think the, and this is just devil's advocate, because I'm in on Jemir Gibbs with you guys. Gibbs can, Gibbs to me as a player with the talent and the opportunity to finish RB1, that's in the range of outcomes for him. The way it goes bad to me, not just injury, it's the team decides. Now, we need to get back to, if we're in the five, it's only David Montgomery, which that's not what happened after the bye week when both guys were back on the field. It was like Montgomery's still getting a bunch of work, but Gibbs was seeing far more than he had before the rolls really switched. So that's the only concern to me with Jamir Gibbs. And I don't think that's going to happen. Yeah, last four games of the season inside the five-yard line, Gibbs had at least one or two carries in.