NFC North Breakdown + Surprise Team Picks - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/20

in all four games. So he wasn't taken off the field 100% in the time. One other thing to factor in is that last year Gibbs missed two games due to injury. Monty missed three due to injury. If either player is out on a top five offense, you've got gold at the position. So you not only are, you know, Gibbs is going to be good, I think, regardless, but Monty becomes upper echelon if Gibbs goes down. Yes. The Green Bay Packers, we'll talk about them. Ammon Ra is. Do we have to talk about him? Just real quickly, wide receiver four, third most receptions through the first three years of career, and draft him. He is great. There's nothing else to add for Amman Ra. Okay. Are you with that, Jason? No, we did not. Need to talk about it. Yes. Draft Alman Ra from Mike Wright. I am 100% with that. He's, and thank you. He's, he is the.

center of this passing game. And imagine what he could do if he takes his father's advice and starts down on refreshing Coca-Cola classic at the half. Hashtag non-sponsor, refreshing Coca-Cola classic at halftime. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, I hope it's like a 64-ounceer in a big styrofoam cup on the sidelines. And his dad is just like, make this. He's got a big gulp. Well, the nice thing about that receiver documentary is that... Vomiting Coke everywhere. Alman Ra is an alpha in personality. Like, this is a player that it's unacceptable for him to not receive a quantity of targets. Which you love to see. You want a player that's going to go out there and be, you know, loud enough. And, yeah, they don't have options outside of him in the wide receiver room yet. All right, Green Bay.

Nine and eight last year coming in with a seven and a half win total. This year it's up to ten and a half. It was the coming out party for Jordan Love. So impressive. They ended up 13th in points per game over the course of the entire year. There is some turnover here, right? Aaron Jones is out the door. That is a name that has been synonymous with the Packers for so long, but their stability as well. And their head coach, Matt LaFleur, someone we trust so much with the offense. Jordan Love. I don't think he has a deal yet. It's coming. Like Jordan Love is getting his money. And then you have a group of wide receivers that has been the talk of much of the offseason of how you break down. Like this is where I don't want to be trapped. I don't want to be so unsure of which wide receiver is going to perform that we ignore what could be a top five offense in football. And just, I mean, literally, I mean, not to.

I mean, just to highlight it, Jason, we were in the middle of a draft yesterday. In the mock draft, now it was late. But you didn't take one guy you wanted in Donovian Wicks because you were worried it would be Romeo Dobbs. Yeah, it would be wrong to take him ahead of Romeo Dobbs. So you took Dobbs. And I think that that could happen earlier in the draft, right? For people that are looking at Jane Reid are looking at Christian Watson where, oh gosh, am I making, oh, am I making the wrong move with this guy at this spot? Like you, I don't think you're going to feel comfortable.

drafting Packers' wide receivers. And that's the headline to me, is that they're going to be very good. Jayden Reed currently is the earliest at wide receiver 34 in the back of the sixth. Yeah, I mean, you talk about Jason. You just brought the chargers. The first charger player is in the eighth round. Well, the first wide receiver for a team in which you look at what Jordan loved it over the back half of the year is being drafted in this late sixth round. That's... You're going to have Packers in the top of the wide receiver rankings. Yes. And so the real question is, is like, are we getting ourselves distracted with Dobbs and Donavian? Should we kind of toss them out a little bit and focus on these other two players? Because, you know, Wix took advantage, yes, over the last five games of the year. Two of those games, there was no Christian Watson. One of those games, there was no Jaden Reed. Like, should we try to?

hone in on a couple of guys so we don't miss the boat. I think the hard part with Jaden Reed, and we discussed him on the footcast a few days ago, of Jaden Reed is a very good player, but if you're looking for sealing, he doesn't seem like a player that can make that jump into being a top 15 wide receiver. So to me, it's identifying the player who can Do that. And I think Christian Watson has the physical ability if he can stay on the field. And when he was on the field and everybody was healthy, he was the alpha in terms of target share. I think it was like at a 21% if that, but that's right at the top of my head. So Jade Reed is a safe pick for depth, but the ceiling's not there. Christian Watson far riskier, but has the ceiling. And I think then between Dobbs and Wicks, it's almost like we.

It's the untapped ceiling that we haven't seen from Wix. I think Dobbs is more going to be like a Jane Reed type of a player where great depth piece, very usable player because he'll have whatever eight plus touchdowns. But I don't think that he can make the jump into being there. So working through it, I think I would narrow it down almost of it comes down to team build. But if I'm shooting for the stars, I'm going to go Watson or I'm going to go Wix. I actually really like the way that you broke that out. Thank you. And I agree. I agree with that. I think that Dobbs and Reed are safer, lower ceiling options. And when you're in the back half of the draft where all these guys are, I'm shooting for, you know, I'm shooting for the moon. Yeah. The problem with Watson has been staying healthy. Yeah. Being on the field to fulfill the great potential that we see. He's leveling out his hamstrings. Yeah. Well, we all want to do that, don't we?

I don't care at all about my hamstring, honestly. Yeah. I was doing some workouts with a trainer, and he told me that my hamstrings are genetically so inflexible that it defies the way he understands a human body to work, which Jason and I have been in training together before, and we both share the same DNA. Like if 23 and me ran it on my hamstrings, they'd be like, he doesn't have any. No, there's there's something genetically wrong with us. And we used to have hamstring offs of like who could not stretch the best. If you're laying on the ground and the trainer picks your foot up off the ground, how early does your knee bend? Yeah. Yeah. Jason's might be worse than mine. But went such a direction that I thought you were seriously going to come in hot of. I was working out with trainer guys. And he said genetically my hamstrings are incredible. No. So beautiful. No.

No, apparently. They are flawless. Apparently, I have very, like, special shoulder flexibility. Okay. Because you do those tests where can you grab your arm behind here? And I'm, my shoulders are good. So you, wherever the flexibility for my shoulders. Self sunscreen, not a problem. No, I get it all. No devil wings. Here's what I'll say about Jordan Reed real quick. This was a rookie season for Jordan Reed where he put up. Jason Reed? Sorry, yes. I got Jordan Love and Jane Reed combined. For Jaden Reed, 64 for 793 and 8, missed time due to injury at the end of the year. Very impressive rookie season. My eyeballs told me all last year that's the best wide receiver they have on the team. I'm going to stay with that. That's my pick. I don't have the injury dance with Christian Watson. And I do think Wicks and Dobbs indict the production of Watson more than they do read in terms of the type of player. So in that regard, I do agree he's safe.

I think he has a little bit more of a crack door for upside than you guys do. But that's, it's a good talk through. We'll do it again. I know it. And I mean, to highlight that, Reed ran two routes with two wide receivers on the field. Like, yeah, he is their third wide receiver. Yep. Yeah, no question. Now, do you just, do you just take Jordan Love and say, I think he's got one of the best wide receiver cores in the league? We haven't even talked about Musgrave. who looked great as a rookie at the tight end position. So many places he could throw a touchdown. Bo Melton. Or are you saying, oh, Butterman? Yeah. Or are you saying that, you know, if you take the wide receivers out and you just look at what a great season, you know, Jordan Love finishes the quarterback five. But he's not really a mobile quarterback. He's not going to add a lot on the ground. And we talk a lot about pocket passers needing to.

throw a ton and have a very high touchdown rate, which he had last year to be successful. So where are you on him? Was that his first season and he kind of broke out and showed he is special? Or was that kind of the best? Because Derek Carr had a season just like this. Yeah, he's great. No, he's better than Derek Carr. And you have now talked to me into adding Jaden Reed and Jordan Love to my stack list. That's what you've talked to me into. Because, you know, Jordan Love is an eighth round pick. I can go five rounds, pick my favorite five, you know, five players. Yeah. And then I can go Jaden Reed, wait around, Jordan Love, have a stack on an offense I believe in. Or even, I mean, if you have to. Or Watson, if you wanted to. I was going to say, you even, you have the buffer of like in the seventh, if you want to just make sure you get the Jaden Reed, Jordan Love stack, take love a round early. That's, that's nothing. No, I think we should always be smart about pocket passers.

that have kind of outlandish seasons. Jordan Love was cooking last year. I mean, this was awesome. He was, I think, the second highest in passing touchdowns, air yards, red zone pass attempt. They were amazing as an offense, throwing the ball in the red zone. They were tied for the second most red zone passing touchdowns, 18 touchdowns, zero interceptions, which, who does that remind you of? Aaron Rogers. Yeah, it's crazy. Yeah, they... Done it again. Al might get a hard time from us, you know, all the time, like every minute of every day. Yeah, I do. But none of it could compensate for how blessed he is as a Packer fan. Al can't be hurt because he's gone from Farr to Rogers to love. So just remember that when you're crying in the corner of the office, Al. I will. Thank you.

The running backs. Yeah, we're going to talk running backs now. So they went out and surprised everybody, spent the money on Josh Jacobs. Last year, four rushing touchdowns for this team on 368 attempts between Jones and Dylan. So get it together, Aaron Jones. Jeez. That's like an outlandish, worse than the decade type of number on that many attempts. So are their running backs do? I mean, Josh Jacobs has a nose for the end zone. When you go look at what he did last year, even when he was inefficient, he still had a good year because he scored a bunch. You know, knows for the buffet last year. Okay. All right. He wasn't that fat. No, I know. He was super shredded. He was shredded. But Jacobs arrives. Marshawn Lloyd was the third round investment in running back. We like the offense. We've talked a lot about Josh Jacobs being somebody who are very afraid to draft.

Man, risk and reward. I mean, this is a guy who led the league in rushing a couple of years ago. The only thing I will caution is that Matt LaFleur has said this a billion times before. He is a committee coach. He wants to keep his guys fresh. So you're looking for the most efficient running back in a committee. You're not looking for just who gets the ball first. Now, that's what made Aaron Jones so great. He was so electric on a per touch basis. It worked in a committee. Josh Jacobs has found success. when he got massive volume. You know, this is where I lean towards, if you want a piece of the running game, super late in the draft, Marshawn Lloyd, explosive rookie coming in. And some of the stuff that the coaches are talking about, about whether they're going to take it slow like they did rookie. You know, they asked their O.C. Are you going to take it slow when, like you did with.

AJ Dylan. He said, no, I'd like to get him out there as much as possible. He's got a skill set that's a bit different from AJ's as far as his speed. Be nice to get him his poem. I know. AJ's just not bad. Did he say that without laughing? I'm watching the video. He did say that without laughing. Impressive. Let me flag something we've never talked about with Marshawn Lloyd when you look at how things could work out in that backfield. He will be a compliment to Jacobs no matter what. Correct. Or like Jacobs is a solidified piece, right? Mm-hmm.

Lloyd is going to have to take advantage of early opportunities on that team, which you said that they're eager to give him. Here's the one caveat with Lloyd I want you put in the back of your head. Eight fumbles over 291 career attempts, second smallest hands of any running back in the scouting combine. Oh, no. So if you want to understand how that, and they have Dylan on the roster, right? Currently. They are not forced. And they have other players, right? Who contributed? Patrick Taylor. Small I know. These hands? Oh, we're bringing it back. Oh, let's get that done. Got a new baby hands here? Oh, baby hands. I guess. I didn't know this about his small tiny. He's got little bitty baby hands and he's fumbled eight times on 300 attempts. Little jewel hands. You fumbled twice as a rookie? Oh, it's a problem. See you later. So just keep that in mind. I'm not trying to throw cold water on his talent, but just as a rookie on a team with expectations, it's always about.

Can you start the season not like Tank Bigsby? That's what I call it. Try not to Biggsby. Which is called volleyballing the ball into the other team's hands. Yeah, he's like, Bigsby's like, I was going to fumble it. Maybe I'll just throw it up in the air. Right. See what happens. Their schedule, their opening schedule, week one. Tough one on the road against Philly. Don't love that. But then Indianapolis at home on the road against Tennessee at home against Minnesota. That's not. Oh, that's great. That's great. All right. We're going to take a break. Come back from Minnesota. All right. It was a tough year for the Vikings. Seven and ten injuries plagued this team. It was really hard for the first time for fantasy managers to deal with no Justin Jefferson. It was a bad time. And then it was also hard to not have Kirk Cousins and to be going into the year without Kirk Cousins. The win total last year was eight and a half. This year, it's six and a half.

from Vegas. They have the sixth most difficult schedule and a brutal division. Yeah, I mean, the Bears should be legitimately good this year. And the other two teams we talked about are both in contention to win the division and go on maybe a Super Bowl hunt. So, yeah, this is not going to be easy sledding for the Minnesota Vikings this season. So that, I mean, that's the overview. Now, we don't know who the quarterback's going to be, Donald McCarthy. Some of what you just said that looking like they might be the worst team in the division is one of the reasons that I am the least bullish of our three pack on Aaron Jones because you're having an older running back that a team, you know, we can debate how much they wanted them back. I always go with the, if you really wanted them back, you bring them back, you know, situation. Price was too much for them. They moved on to Josh Jacobs, whatever.

If this team is not moving the football the way we want them to, if they're not an efficient offense, if the quarterback is changing halfway through the year, those are some of the things I'd be concerned about, especially if Ty Chandler and what he did last year gets worked into the mix. There's a lot of questions, I think, beyond Jefferson. Like Jefferson, we're all in the opinion of like, you know, draft him, play him. He's a superstar. Maybe you need to ignore all the peripheral around him and just do that. But Jason made a good point on the mock draft show of what he really sees the ceiling as compared to some of these other top tier options. Jefferson ended up going late in the first. Yeah, and that's probably where he should go. This is a guy that is almost guaranteed to be a wide receiver one and almost guaranteed to not be a top three wide receiver with the quarterback play and the expected touchdown availability he'll have. So, you know, a low end wide receiver one, that's great.

Well, sorry, I am distracted. Were you going to hit the breaking? I was going to hit the breaking news, but it's not a, this is news to me. I have just found out right here on the show. After all of this offseason of talking Aaron Jones now, Mike is one spot lower than I am on Aaron Jones. I got him. I didn't know that either. Now, I got him at 25, Jason at 13. Mike at 26. Now, was this something that was inverting? I just went to check. Or were you listening? I've kind of been in the middle, but the two of you guys. But I feel the way that the coaches talked about Tai Chandler, like that kid is going to play. And it would shock me if this is a full Aaron Jones led situation for an offense that is probably going to struggle. So a committee with all that, it's like Aaron Jones will be, he'll have some huge spike games for sure.

but he's not a target for me. Yeah, I will just throw this out. The last time we saw Aaron Jones, he was great. This wasn't a player like the last time we saw Josh Jacob where he was struggling and then got injured. He was the running back one on the week to start the year last year. He got injured, dealt with injuries throughout the season. When he came back, the last four weeks, he was. you know, 13 for 53, 21 for 127, 20 for 120, 22 for 111, and he works in the passing game. Rookie quarterbacks aren't usually great for their wide receivers, but rookie quarterbacks are pretty good for running backs. They tend to lean on the run a little bit more. It's not necessarily the high upside, but a high floor for that. So this is a team that has been massacred by Aaron Jones for years. Yeah. They were surprised that he came to the market and they went,

and got him. And so they're, you know, this is a smart offensive system. I didn't see him lose a step. And so I think he is going to be very relevant. I, you know, whether he can be a running back one on this team, maybe not, but you're not drafting him like that. So I do think it's an okay pick where he's going right now. Where is he going? Fifth, fifth, sixth round? Fifth round. Yeah, RV18. The first five weeks of the season, they're heavy underdogs in most of those games. They go to New York. to face the Giants. Then they play San Francisco, Houston, in Green Bay against the Jets. Yo. What? Do you think that was their GM's reaction to the schedule release, Mike? Did he just go, yo? I think they went and they wrote down week six by week quarterback change. That's what they wrote down. That's why Darnold's starting. Donald will start. Oh, he is being sacrificed. Hawkinson won't be there.

Addison, who knows? Yeah. I mean, I would love to have this conversation about, hey, go give me another pass catcher. I mean, that's your best argument for Aaron Jones. Find me a pass catcher outside of Justin Jefferson that I have to start in week one. Go. If Addison is suspended by any chance, then it is Aaron Jones. I mean, right now I brought him up. Is it Jalen Naylor? He's profiling as the three slash two if Addison's gone. And then Brandon Powell. in Dynasty could be involved as well. Those are two names for deeper. Hit that nasty boys drop if I'm saying Jalen Naylor's name. But those are guys that could see the field. About some Johnny Munt. No. No. Johnny Munt making more money at the tight end position than Trey McBride this year. Johnny Munt is such a tight end name. Yeah. So look, not promising. Not promising to have a quarterback you can start.

The running back room, we'll see, but could be very committee based on low opportunities around the red zone. We do like Kevin O'Connell. I mean, I like the opportunity for them to, like I think he's going to want to do stuff in this office. He won't be able to execute because of the personnel. That schedule is so rough for drafting Minnesota Vikings. Yeah. I mean, look. Yeah, you want to add something to the Jefferson conversation? Yeah, I mean, like. Jefferson still draft him in the first round. He's the greatest wide receiver in football right now. But that is. You want me to add to it? Sure. I read five games. They're not favored in their first nine. So you go beyond the five games I just read. Sixth, most difficult strength of schedule. That's not fair. That's not great. Let's talk about Chicago. All right. Fun. Last year, seven and a half win total. There were two and six in one score games. The Justin Fields experiment is over.

This year, projected wind toll of eight and a half. They have the third easiest schedule for 2024. And, you know, I could sit here and give you all their numbers on offense last year. I don't care about them. Yeah, you throw them away. And this was a defense that was number one in rushing yards per game. It took major steps. It's going to continue to improve, I think. And like I said, Matt Iber Fluse is currently the betting favorite to win coach of the year. And. We got Shane Waldron in as the offensive coordinator. Also looks like my number one pick to coach an Icelandic hockey team. Yes. That is where I'm looking at the picture and he is from Mighty Ducks 2. Give me the name, Kyle. Wolf the Dennis Stanson. Oh, he breaks in with his. Kyle. Kyle is always on the draw for Mighty Ducks or recently Angels in the Outfield statistics from the movie.

Impressive. Wolf the dentist? Come on, man. This is Pat Riley's haircut. It's like, Eberflus saw that movie saying, that's the look. This is Pat Riley on the sideline. We're doing it again. I will avoid the sun and I will grease my hair. I mean, is this showtime in Chicago is the question because Caleb Williams. Jeremy just posted the picture. It's the same guy. It is the same guy. Wait, this is the actor. This is the actual. Matt Iberfluse and his IMDB played Wolf the dentist. Is that what it was? Yeah. Caleb Williams just signed his deal. They said, let's equip him as well as we possibly can. Veteran pass catcher extraordinaire, Keenan Allen. Welcome to the Bears. DJ Moore breakout campaign with Justin Fields despite the struggles. We've got DeAndre Swift to help you out of the backfield.

I mean, Gerald Everts there. Roma Dunzei is there. They spent the ninth pick. They went out and got a great veteran. They traded for one of the best wide receivers while they already had a good wide receiver. And then they said, nah, not done. Number nine pick were drafting one of the best rookie wide receivers in a loaded top heavy class. You can't enter a better situation. You know what it reminds me of? Than Caleb Williams. It reminds me of when Cincinnati made the pick. on Jamar Chase when we were all sitting here going, you know, we recognize T. Higgins could be the one of an offense. You have Tyler Boyd who was contributing at a high, you know what I mean? And you need Penae Sewell because your offensive line is trash. And they said, you know what, let's double down on making sure our rookie is successful. And, you know, Penae Soule's amazing. But Jamar Chase is as well. So they have equipped him. They have a good defense. They said goodbye to Darnell Mooney. I think they have three running backs that will contribute in this office. To what degree?

That is yet to be seen. I just don't want people to. DeAndre Swift is going to be their higher volume piece of the committee. No question. But I don't want people to forget about like Roshan Johnson. And, you know, there's been positivity around him so far. Roshan Johnson is one of my favorite best ball picks. He's going so late. I don't really understand it. He's being drafted like. Like Khalil Herbert is the clear backup and then Roshan Johnson is not a part of this offense. And I think Roshan Johnson will be the number two running back for this team. He's great on third downs. He's a quality back. And, you know, I prefer the younger, more explosive guy. I would, I would firmly bet Cleoel will be the RB2. As do the average person because. Oh, he called you average. Yeah. He just said your ordinary. How's that feel?

Mr. Normal. Basic. Basic, Mike. It feels fine. Roshan Johnson had many times throughout the season where he should have taken over. And he did not. And it was, they were like, nah, this Deontza Foreman guy. And then Foreman comes in and has great games. And then Foreman is banished himself to Siberian. They're like, should we put the, the rookie in? They're like, nope, back to Khalil Herbert. Well, to be fair, he was a rookie. I mean, you know, he was just getting in there. And he led all Chicago running backs and third down snaps and snaps and pass protection last year as a rookie. My judgment. I haven't made the judgment call on him yet. I think, I think we can see how this year goes. 4.3 of carry is a rookie. Limited opportunities. Didn't earn it. Yeah, that's the top job. I get it. The wide receiver room is really interesting. It's heavily dependent on a big year from a rookie quarterback, Caleb Williams.

We had a show a couple months ago where I was talking about expectations for rookie quarterbacks, really looking at what's a fair expectation to provide your receiver room if you're the number one pick versus being just a first round pick versus just being a rookie quarterback in general. It definitely lent itself to you're the number one overall pick. Your number one wide receiver numbers are much better. It's around 1,000 yards. It's around seven touchdowns. You know, if it was just DJ Moore and no one else, it'd be easy to say, okay, Moore's going to be that guy. We're getting the murkiness of, well, Dune's really talented and Alan is really experienced. And DJ Moore had a really good year last year. Yeah, I mean, when you dug deep on that research, which was great, you did find that most of those really great, you know, wide receivers connected to 101 quarterbacks like Steve Smith. You know, Steve Smith was awesome. But also it was like him and no one. And no one else. And so here.