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Main show · September 27, 2019

Week 4 Matchups + In-or-Out, Turf Toe Woes

RSSSep 27, 2019 · transcript indexed
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Week 4 Matchups + In-or-Out, Turf Toe Woes

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Inside the episode

145 passages
27:30 ↗

Yeah, the Titans have the highest pressure rate in the NFL, the Atlanta offensive line, not exactly strong. I think that'll be the push comes to shove part of this game. The Redskins at 0 and 3 take on the 1 and 2 Giants. What a barn burner this is going to be. It actually might be. It could be. It's the third highest over under of the week. The Giants are 3-point home favorites. The over-under is 49.5 points. That puts the Giants at 26. The Redskins at 23.

28:00 ↗

So Daniel Jones, he had the second best debut ever for a fantasy football quarterback. We have him at Consensus QB 13 this week, Case Keenum at 23. Can you trust Daniel Jones? I don't think that that's possible. I don't think you can ever take a player that has one NFL start and say, yes, I trust him to deliver. But is he, does he have potential in this matchup? You have to say yes.

28:28 ↗

Yeah, I think he is an excellent streaming quarterback this week if you're up against it. Washington 28th against the quarterback position for fantasy scoring. They get beat there. And Daniel Jones, he looked solid. This wasn't, to me, we've all seen the quarterback come in and the team rallies behind the new quarterback. They pull out a win.

28:55 ↗

and the quarterback gets all this credit, but you know if you watch the game, the quarterback did not win that game. Daniel Jones was a huge part of the Giants actually winning. I feel like he is a competent quarterback, and he's in a plus match at home. Yeah, and the Redskins are giving up 79% completion percentage. That is the highest in the NFL. So, yeah, I think Daniel Jones can be played, especially when you add in his rushing baseline.

29:24 ↗

You know, he rushed a lot in college. And so far, week one, two rushing touchdowns, plenty of yards on the ground. I think you could stream him. Wayne Galman? You just got to play him. If you spent all that money, you're playing him. Adrian Peterson. We have him right on the outside edge of running back three.

29:46 ↗

He's in the category where you're saying, do I want to play Frank Gore against New England? Or do I want to play Adrian Peterson against the Giants? Oh, that's a punch in the face. I would go Peterson in that case. Out of those two, yes. But it's not been pretty. And then Chris Thompson being worked into this offense, the Redskins throwing the ball 14% more than they did in 2018. It's the largest pass increase in the NFL. Their defense is not showing up. I mean, I think that's a big part of it. And they're having to.

30:14 ↗

hand the ball to Case Keenham to come back. That's why we've seen Terry McLaurin have success through three weeks. Does it continue in this one? I mean, the Giants defense, ew. Yeah. The Giants defense is this is why there's a high over under on the game. We say it could be a barn burner. I could very easily see, even though it's almost a 50 point over under taking the over on this game. I don't see either defense doing anything good. And both offenses can compete enough.

30:43 ↗

against these specific defenses. So, yeah, I mean, I think you start Terry McLaurin. I think you start Sterling Shepherd. I want pieces in this game. Not so much the Adrian Peterson, you know, again, I would take him over Gore. This could be a game that the Redskins are up and winning and he stays in the game. But if it turns into a barn burner, which I lean the odds on probability are that this is going to, you know, there's going to be a lot of points scored, then I'd rather have Chris Thompson.

31:12 ↗

Adrian Peterson, I'll give you an example of when I'm going to play him. Because I think he's the guy that you don't want to play. He's the, like, in case of emergency break glass type of player. You know, in one of our leagues, I have him on the bench. I'm looking out on the waiver wire. It's, it's Adam Humphreys. It's Cole Beasley against New England. It's kind of like, well, if I give, if Emmanuel Sanders was to miss the game because he's a little banged up or Chris Godwin, surprise, missed the game.

31:39 ↗

That's when I put Peterson in and go, at least I know. They're going to hand him the ball 10, 11 times. Maybe he'll fall forward into the end zone like he did a couple weeks ago. But you can't be excited about Peterson. No doubt about it. No. Buccaneers, one and two, take on the Rams. Rams are 3 and O. Game has a 49.5 point over under as well. The Rams are nine and a half point home favorites. We know Jared Goff's a lot better at home. We have them at QB8. You feel comfortable with golf? Yes.

32:03 ↗

Yeah, I really like golf this week. The whole home road narrative that I've been pushing against seems to have been true, at least so far. And he is at home while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has looked better, they obviously were beat by Daniel Jones pretty heavily last week. So I think at home the Rams, this is a bounce back game to me for the Rams. Yes, they're 3-0. But you haven't really loved the offense because you haven't loved Jared Gop. You haven't loved Todd Gurley.

32:33 ↗

I actually think both players have a bounce back game. I think they're going to try to get Gurley going in this. So I really like the Rams this week. Do you buy into the reports that Gurley at 15 touches the game, they actually want to get him the 25? No. That was coach speak when he was asked a question about that number saying, yeah. But if you listen to him, Sean McVeigh does go on to say, I don't believe the number thing, but he said, I want to get him in more of a rhythm and set him up to succeed.

33:02 ↗

that's where he's been blaming himself. And we've seen that with Gurley. That's where you've been blaming him. Yes, I've been blaming him because why aren't you getting him involved in this screen game, getting him on, you know, in a rhythm. And if that's an effort given by Sean McVeigh, I think, look, Gurley's been out there. He's not, I mean, we're worried about the workload, but he's not currently injured. He's still the same talented guy. Before the season, if I had said he'd be.

33:29 ↗

Three weeks in, 71% of the snaps on the season. I think we'd all have imagined him being. He's a top 10 guy. Exactly. Top five. Exactly. So we've been, you know, they have not taken him off the field. They're 3 and 0. That's a good sign. He's, is he a buy low for you? If you believe McVacen, you know, even some small involvement in the passing game is going to change the narrative quite a bit. I traded for him this week in our listener league because I think this week he's a buy low.

33:59 ↗

That being said, if he balls out and looks amazing, yeah, I'm going to listen to offers because I still worry about the long-term reliability. Peyton Barber, Ronald Jones, he's starting either guy in this one. The Rams, the only place they have been beaten has been at the running back position because their corners are incredible and they have a great pass rush. So occasionally running backs have done a few things against them, giving up 22 and a half fantasy points. But if you have to pick one, where do you go?

34:28 ↗

I guess Ronald Jones, because. Please don't pick one. Is that the answer? Because it's just reactionary to what happened last week. This is a, this is a tango that I want no part of. Evans and Godwin, you're starting these guys against these incredible corners? Yeah, I think you have probably have to based on where they were drafted, who they are and what the rest of your lineup is. But I'm expecting a poor game out of James Winston against the Rams. So that obviously does not bode well for.

34:57 ↗

Evans and Goblin. Evans coming off the eighth best fantasy game by a wide receiver over the last 10 years. And we were on the other end of one of those and it didn't feel good. Thanks, Mike. Cooper Cup, Brandon Cooks, Robert Woods. That's the order you'd start these guys? Yes. Yeah, you have to go that way. Even though Robert Woods, he's seeing the exact same target share as Cooper Cup. When you're watching the game, there's a...

35:25 ↗

There's a sink problem to me right now with Jared Gough and Robert Woods. The targets are just, they're not, they're not as catchable. They're not as nice as these Cooper Cup receptions where I mean, he's running free and wide open. One thing that's, yeah, one thing that's been interesting. If you go back and look at the matchups and who's been guarding who, the top corner for the first three weeks has been more on Woods. And I wonder after last week if that starts to shift. If, if defenses start to say, we need to look at Cup.

35:54 ↗

as the one put our best guy there. It'll be interesting forward. He's in the slot, so I don't think you're going to see that. I think it'll be interesting if at home, if we see Woods in this game not be able to kind of break through, I think fantasy owners are going to get pretty worried about his production and where he drafted it. Fair. Because he's never really had the high-end upside, so you at least want to have the 10, 12 points a week. I think Howard has an okay game in this one. I really do.

36:23 ↗

Howard is my number 10 tied in, and it's terrifying. Like I've still got to be at 10? Yeah, because he should be good. He should have been good week one, two, and three. He was fine last week. I think he's probably, he'll see more targets this week. I think they're going to need to utilize him, Godwin. If the Rams defense focuses on slowing down Mike Evans and those corners on the outside, that's my guess. You know, you got to put Winston in the position where.

36:50 ↗

He can evade this pass rush with some help underneath. I hope Howard is that guy for fantasy purposes. I'm fine starting him. You guys ready to move on? Yep. All right. The Seahawks, two and one take on the O2 and one. Cardinals in Arizona Seahawks five point road favorites in this one. What are we expecting from Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray? So Russell Wilson, you play him that the matchup is super juicy. You are...

37:19 ↗

you're hoping that the Cardinals can keep up because Russell Wilson's massive game last week. I think he threw the ball 50 times. That is not what Pete Carroll and the Seattle Seahawks want to do. They'll do it if they have to, but they really don't want their offense running that way. Well, they had to. But that's what I mean. But Russell's high-end finish this week would be predicated on the Cardinals keeping up.

37:47 ↗

No, I don't think that's true. I think Russell Wilson's high-end finish could be the product of just super efficiency with some Disley touchdowns, a Tyler Lockett-Bomb touchdown, a D.K. McCaff. The Arizona Cardinals are going to give up a lot of points. That we know. We just don't know where they're going to come. If I had to guess, I think they're going to try to get Chris Carson going in this game. They want to be in control in a divisional matchup. I love Chris Carson this week. The Arizona Cardinals gave up a monster game to Christian McCaffrey.

38:16 ↗

I think that Will Disley, Tyler Lockett, Chris Carson, you have to start. And it's going to be the Cardinals, shockingly, playing catch up. Like they have done the entire year. They have still yet to run a single snap with a lead. So the only thing we know about the Cardinals is that they throw the ball a lot when they're down and they're always down. The Seahawks defense, it's not been good. No. I would say, you know, bottom third.

38:44 ↗

Kyler, DJ Fitzgerald, I assume we're starting those three. Christian Kirk, are you willing to put him out there? Yeah, look, the volume has been fantastic for the wide receivers. Right now, Larry ranks fourth in targets at 31, and Christian Kirk has 32 targets. The volume is great. Kyler is not throwing the ball deep down the field, but...

39:09 ↗

He's throwing the ball a lot. So it works out for fantasy. We wish we would see them going down the field a little bit more, but you still have to be pleased with the mid to late round values that Larry and Kirk are providing. Chris Carson, you've shown some confidence in him start of the week. I have Wilson as my start of the week against Arizona's defense. Lockett has been outstanding second most targets over the last two weeks after the weird. The weird week one where.

39:37 ↗

He's still delivered, though. He had the big play. And then Will Disley. Will Disley, kind of our show started the week this week. Arizona dead last. This is shocking. This stat is shocking. 25.4 fantasy points per game given up to the tight end position. Think about what that means. The tight end on a team that usually scores like no fantasy points on average is averaging 25 fantasy points. That's why.

40:03 ↗

Montana's Gatorade High School player of the year in 2013. The Big Montana himself is our start of the week. Will Disney. Whoa. Yeah. Get it going. Big Montana. He is everyone's favorite play this week. Hope it turns out. Hope it pans out. Oh, it will. It's funny because I doubted Olson last week on the...

40:30 ↗

Injury return. It was like, Kyle Allen, new variable. We know that Cam Newton loves Greg Olson. He's banged up, and he just bawled down. Did you say he's Montana's Gatorade High School Player of the Year in 2013? Yeah, super impressive. I'm calling Big Montana for nothing. And they equals us. Vikings, two and one at the Bears, two and one. Bears two-point home favorites in this one.

40:57 ↗

What are we going to get out of David Montgomery? You know, this is going to be the toughest test for Dalvin Cook. Right now, the Vikings only passing the ball 38% of the time, which is shocking. Dalvin Cook has been absolutely dominant. He's the number one fantasy running back on the year. He's tied for the most forced mistackles, second in yards after contact. Every metric you can look at, production, you know,

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