The TRUTH: WRs Part 2 + Where’s Jason? - Fantasy Football Podcast for 2/4

And then as the season went along, they realized what they had in Herbert. And they, you know, this is his team. They let him throw a little bit more. And Lad was, I mean, Lad's a really good football player. This is a player that we all liked a lot coming into the season. We just weren't sure if the opportunities were going to be there in the, in the passing game for the offense. It seems like they will be. Well, you had a playoff game where he had 14 targets and went nine for 197 and it touched him. It went nuclear. And when you compare him to other rookies, what they have.

already given us in the NFL guys who were drafted in rounds one through three. Ladd is in the 80th percentile for targets per route run. We love that. Yards per route run, fourth best over the last decade. Like he's right there with Beckham, A.J. Brown, and Justin Jefferson in terms of a per route basis. So like this is a, this is a player who is on a rocket. Could the pendulum swing too far for lap? Wow. Let me give it to you. Yeah, his basketball ADP. Yeah. So baseball is. For the absolute degenerates of maniacs out there. Best ball is open if you want to just have a good time. But right now we're seeing an early best ball ADP of wide receiver 10. That feels really. That's spicy. That feels risky considering that this team is clearly an asset short in the receiving game. It seems like they're going to drafts. Right. So I would imagine whether maybe it's a tight end.

Maybe it's a premium pass catching tied in. Maybe it's T. Higgins. Yeah, maybe T. Higgins. But it definitely seems like we don't know yet. This is TBD on what the pecking order is next year. Ladd McConkey, if they bring in someone really good, that person will, I think, leapfrog McConkey from a volume perspective, even if it's not from a talent perspective, just from the size, stature and style of play that McConkey has. That is ahead of A.J. Brown. Yeah. Terry McLaren, J.S.N. Garrett Wilson, T. Higgins. It's hard, man. I probably would not have him slotted at 10, but I would have no problem putting him ahead of Garrett Wilson and J.S.N. McLaren and Brown had probably put ahead of him. Yeah, Brown for sure. And then Higgins, depending on where he is. I mean, Higgins McConkey should be a fair conversation, even if he stayed in Cincinnati. Yeah, this one is.

brutal because I want to be all chips in on lad. But that wide receiver 10 is a, oh man. It's as spicy as it gets. Yeah, like that is a, that is projecting a very big jump. All right. Here's a combo platter. A couple of Eagles wide receivers. One at 14, one at 24. We'll talk about them at the same time. A.J. Brown finished at 14. That's not great. Consistency rank, though, was. nine overall. First half was number two. Second half, 21. So we'll talk about the drop off. Devante Smith, consistency rank was 14, so better than his fantasy finish. Although in the second half, he dropped to number 20. So to have two Eagles wide receivers on the edges of the top 20 in consistency, that is more of the story, I think, is where are we headed as a team. And they could very well have put into practice.

both a strategy that disappoints us as fantasy players and wins them a title in a matter of days. Yeah, I mean, the second half of the year, first of all, the Philly defense got better and better as the season went along. You know, they had a couple of rookie corners in there that just, you know, like a lot of these rookie wide receivers, go figure. They get better as the season goes along. And that happened. And as that happened, and they had more leads, Sequin took over. This was... You know, it's funny to think, like, this is Sequin's team. Like in one year, all of a sudden, this is Sequan Barclay's team when you've got Jalen Hertz, A.J. Brown and Devante Smith for a running back to come in and just be like, you know, it's not Derek Henry's team. You know what I mean? It's Lamar Jackson's team. But this is Sequin Barclay's team. And so that's where, I think, in the second half of the year and going into next season, like you said, Andy, it works. Not for fantasy, but it works in winning ball games, which was what they care about.

The passing game, the total passing stats are going to be down if they're winning ball games, if they've got good defense, and if Sequin is healthy. Yeah, and people will want to talk about, you know, what is Jalen Hertz capable of? I think it's, I think if they need him to throw the football, these guys are going to have big fantasy production. If they don't need him to throw the football, he's been rained in a little bit. On their, did we talk about, they'll probably have a new O.C. Well, not probably. Most likely they will with Kellanmore. Yeah, does that make you feel? Being lined up for the Saints job. Got reaction to another turnover at offensive coordinator. Yeah, it's not good. I mean, you saw it with the Eagles be a very big negative a couple years ago. And so it could very well be a negative again. Yeah, and you had the, you know, I'm looking at the game log here. You had a few times where both guys had disastrous weeks, right? Like week 11.

wide receiver 36 and 55 week 14 wide receiver 46 28 so they can win games without these guys right at this moment but you know a j brown finishing as the wide receiver 14 being drafted as wide receiver 6 last year where do you think he will go AJ Brown? Are people going to try not to draft AJ Brown? Are they going to try to draft AJ Brown? When push comes to shove and you see the names next to each other, he'll be very high. He'll be the back of the first round. Like Drake London or AJ Brown? I will probably be on the Drake London side. I think ADP will still have AJ Brown. Malik neighbors are AJ Brown. I'll be on the neighbor's side. Brown will be a fringe wide receiver one in terms of ADP. And I know he finished. Underdog, he's sitting behind.

all those guys. Yeah, right now he finishes the water receiver 14, but he missed three weeks. So he was a wide receiver one on the season. 15 was Devante Adams, who we talked about on the last episode with Garrett Wilson. So 16 is Jordan Addison. Now this one's, you know, 16 outside the top 12. I get it. Still feels higher than he, what he seemed to have represented for your team. The big games in the back. I mean, you have an overall number one. Big games in the back. Yeah, you got big back Jordan Addison. He had a number one overall finish. Two weeks later, he was number three with actually more points than he scored in his number one output. So when you, like those types of performances, that's multiple games in one. So it juices you up to wide receiver 16. Yeah, he was 22 in consistency. First half 46 seemed irrelevant. In fact, you know, if you traded for had Addison in a dynasty,

Probably didn't feel great the first half of the year. And that's not even counting the games he missed in the first half of the year. Our consistency metric only scores you for the games that you started. And so it was worse than that. And he was 46. But the second half of the year really clicked in this offense. It worked with, you know, being on the other side of Justin Jefferson. And he looked really special. I mean, over and over, there were plays where I did feel like I was watching the game. I remember towards the end of the year.

in certain situations where I was rooting for Justin Jefferson and the ball would fly down in the field and you're just thinking, oh, is that going to Jefferson? And it would look just like Jefferson coming open, like wide open. And then it's just a smaller version and it's Jordan Edison. Yeah, the second half, he was the wider shooter 15 in consistency. So pretty impressive. Big play threat. Can have those explosive games like Mike said. I mean, 19 touchdowns through two seasons. That was the number I think we all expected to come way down. Yeah. He ends up with nine on 99 targets. And that was with missing, what, two weeks to start the year? Yeah. Losing Kirk Cousins and being 175 pounds, you do not expect high touchdown volume. But the big plays, man. The big plays. What was this total? He's 63 receptions. So that is, that's low. In fact, only three players over the last decade.

had multiple seasons of nine plus receiving touchdowns on 70 or fewer, and he's one of them. Marvin Jones did it. Remember the great Marvin Jones touchdown? And then Mike Evans does it because he's Mike Evans. Right. It feels like I think the player is very, very good. But for where he finished and where he might be drafted compared to how it comes, I'm going to be scared. So the truth to me of Jordan Addison is I'm worried. Because you still don't know the quarterback either. Yeah, I think that's being reflected in some of the early best ball, wide receiver 28 off the board, despite finishing at 16. That feels right. I would love to take him at 28 because there's... I'm fine with 28. You know, this is a very inconsistent player, but when you get to this range of wide receivers, all of them are... We say this every year, but they're all inconsistent. No one here is just like, oh, really high floor never has bad games. I want the guys in this range that...

Okay, you're going to have bad games because all of them are going to have bad games. Which one could go out there and be the wider receiver one on a week, the wide receiver three on a week. And he obviously did that. Yeah, I was just, I was just glancing at some of the T. Yilton seasons. Hilton had some good years. That sounds pretty. That seemed to compare. Well, Hillman never a touch. He was never got a touchdown. Yeah. But, um, you know, total receptions and some of the big yardage numbers were there. At 17 was T. Higgins. What a.

What a weird year. He was awesome. Consistency, guys, five. My mind's being blown a little bit right now. You don't realize how good he was. First half was 14. Second half? Two. Yeah. The first month of the season was disaster for the Bengals. The Bengals got off to a bad start. Joe Burrow started a little slow. T. Higgins was injured the first two weeks. The next two weeks coming back was not good. Didn't get 10 fantasy points for the first month of the season. So I think we were like your mind being blown right now. If you didn't have T. Higgins and you didn't ride that experience later, you know, you started off really pessimistic about T. Higgins. And so if you didn't have them, that's why this episode exists to make sure you know like, he was really good. In the games he actually played in, he busted only 18% of the time. That is a very good number.

He was 64% of the time good, 27% of the time, great. You know, Joe Burrow was Magma and obviously, Jamar Chase, number one wide receiver, gets all the love. But I don't think a lot of people realize how good T. Higgins was. How do you reconcile what we've known for a while? T. Higgins can come up with Monster Games, has a great quarterback, can be a top performer with... What you also had to deal with. I mean, I was on this show, hosting this show, watching a man shrivel up and die five different times this year, not to mention other games where he actually did play, but you weren't sure. The injuries have been a problem. He played one full season in his career. It was his rookie season. He hasn't played a full one since. He missed five games this year with hamstring quad injuries. That has always been part of the story is you want him out there, not just for T. Higgins' sake, but for Jemar Chase's sake.

But through five seasons, he hasn't been able to give you a fantasy finish inside the top 15 because he doesn't play enough. Yeah, it's definitely injury. I mean, injury is his problem. When he's out there playing and finishing games because he has been known to exit games early, if he's playing, he's good. And so we just can't actually predict injury. And there are lots of players who have the injury prone label who bucket. And then the next thing you know, they're Ironman for a couple seasons. I'm not going to hold the injuries against it. Yes. Bucket. Got it. Yeah. I was trying to figure out the cool reverence. Ah, no. Like he buckets. Yeah, no. It's like the horse. Yeah, no. You bucking bronco. Bucket off. What's your thoughts on all of the experience, Mike? Like, is this one you're going to be going back to the well on? It has, I will. You will? I will. You? Yeah. You've been hurt so much. But here's the thing is like, yes, there are many pains.

There are many pains from many fantasy football wide receivers out there who can't give you what T. Higgins can give you. Mike is in an unhealthy relationship with T. Higgins. Yeah, for sure. Because T. Higgins can hurt Mike a hundred times, but if he helps Mike once, it's like all is forgiven. I wouldn't go there, but I would say that T. Higgins, yeah, he hasn't been a top 15 guy, but in three of five seasons, he's been wide receiver. 22, 17, 19. I mean, that is the Terry McLauran experience. Yeah, like, for his big year. So it's, can he go be the number one if he doesn't stay in Cincinnati? Um, like if he gives, if he goes to the, if he goes to the chargers, heck yeah. Is that better than him staying in Cincinnati? I think it is, if you're, a place that I would project as good as the chargers, it would probably be neutral because I think you can go be a number one.

but this isn't like, I don't think he can be Jamar Chase. He can't be Jefferson, but he can be like Mike Evans numbers. T. Higgins can do that. He was so tough this year because you drafted him, Mike. Yeah. Then he got hurt and didn't play the first two weeks. Then he played two weeks and did nothing. Well, hold on. It was announced he was hurt like an hour after I drafted him. So your first four weeks were completely, you lost them completely. Oh, yeah. Then you get him back for three weeks. Two of them were great. and then he got hurt and he missed three more weeks. Yeah. That's the one that really hurt. Yeah, that's the one that made you sell and feel like you're done. But that's seven, that's eight of ten weeks to start the year that you were unhappy. Yeah, he's a weird player, man. This is why I'm always on this side of, I doubt, like we create the perfect dynamic tension on Higgins on this show because I am always focused on the negative of T. Higgins. And you are always focused on the positive and the truth is in the middle. Well,

Yeah, I mean, the truth is when he plays, he's good, and he doesn't play too often, and that stinks. But I'm not going to try to draft a guy based on knowing future injuries. Instead, I'm going to draft a guy. He averaged 15.5 fantasy points per game this season in half PPR. And if you don't know where that ranks, Justin Jefferson, who was number two on the season, was 15.6 fantasy points. It's basically the same. That's pretty powerful. Let's take a break. We'll talk about a player that Kyle won't want to talk about. All right, drafted by Kyle as the wide receiver 48. Somewhere in the 10th, 11th round, maybe not drafted at all. 23-year-old Jameson Williams comes in at 18. But don't worry, his consistency rank was even better at 15. Was this a tough year for you, Kyle, having to come to terms with Jameson and everything that you thought about him being wrong?

He's fine. So look, Jameson Williams was, I'll say this, he was valuable for fantasy football on a regular basis. And if you traded him like I did in one league off of the first couple of weeks of success, I guess it was okay. I mean, missed a couple weeks, had some big weeks towards the end of the season. I know he was a. playoff guy he was a playoff winner 29% great 43% good those numbers are pretty pretty good 29% bust you don't like that but for a guy that was not that was completely doubted uh his ability in the NFL to to break out to be a meaningful player to me he passes the eye test and always has um you know like a jalen wattle across the middle of the field just when the ball's in his hands yeah very they give him an end around

when they want to take a deep shot and you need separation, Jameson Williams brings a lot of explosiveness to the offense. Well, and this is an offense you want pieces of. You know, this was the number one offense in the NFL. They were number three the last time. Obviously, they're going to have an offensive coordinator shift, and that could hurt them. But that could also help James and Williams be utilized more as, you know, a primary wide receiver too. This is a guy who still only caught 58 passes this year. So even though his consistency was okay because he had the big plays, you know, over 1,000 yards, it's, he wasn't, you know, the possession, regular, consistent, high volume type of player that you wish he could be like a Jalen Waddle a couple of years ago because that Amman Ross soaks all that up. So it's possible that that changes here in his favor, but I do think going into next year, everyone's going to assume the lions are a very good offense. They've still got a great offensive line.

and a lot of continuity between the players, even though you've got a coaching change. So Jameson Williams stepped up, showed that he can be a legitimately important fantasy asset and a legitimately impactful lion for their team. So you have to imagine it sticks and it stays if it doesn't even just get better. I'm not going to say he will do this because I think he has to prove the work ethic to become this kind of player. But I do think it's in front of him in Detroit. But I remember being here on this show and talking about another player that we thought was really limited back in 2016 that had 61 receptions that year that looked really explosive but didn't get the kind of work, wasn't well-rounded. Do you know what I'm talking about? I do not. Tyreeke Hill. Tyree Kill was not considered by anybody.

coming out of 2016 to be the next great thing at the position. Jameson Williams was drafted with the Capitol to do that. That's all I'm saying. Now, whether he's got the work ethic to go put that in and become that kind of player, I don't know, but you've got, you had a lot of people that thought Tyree Kill was a one-trick pony. And he became a well-rander receiver. And I just, I don't know if that's what James and Williams future will be, but I do believe that if you gave, if the lines needed to throw the ball more. Like he was the opposite of Jerry Judy. He had the.

the lowest percentage of his yards and fantasy points when trailing. Because the Lions were winning almost every game. And yet he put up a number like this. So when you talk about is the pathway forward there for him, will the Lions be the number one offense always leading? Will the running game be as effective? Those are things that could change the story for James Williams in some capacity. I thought you were going to go a different direction with your saying, like how you were on this podcast last year, giving the warnings. of Brandon Ayyuk, who was on a great team, a high-powered offense, has a good defense, has this unbelievable level of efficiency, where Iyuk, the magical year, two years ago, he was at 17.9 yards per reception on 75 catches, 75 touchdowns, Jameson Williams. 75 touchdowns. They're sorry, 7. Jameson Williams, 58 catches, 17.3.

Seven touchdowns. Very similar. Very similar. He was incredibly efficient. Big play dependent. Now, like volume can go up for, for Jameson Williams, 91 targets. That's a number that you could see going up. But it's, I think he is difficult because it was so, it was a huge plays. And those can bounce back and forth. I'm not saying he can't kind of replicate this, but. It is very difficult. It's the third highest great game percentage behind Evans and Chase. And he missed two games. So you've got to factor that into where his fantasy finish was. I think he's going to be super interesting. Coming into his prime, 24 years old. I'm going to be in on Jameson Williams. No matter what Kyle says. Yeah, I know. Kyle really hates him. Kyle just despises Jameson Williams. Yeah. Kyle has won that argument two of three years. So it's still.

The point is still on his side. I'm not giving him any credit, no. Oh, okay. I like that approach. I see. I do. Because, I mean, you're going to give Kyle credit for, you know, his gambling problems? You care about back then or now? You know what I mean? Right. Would you rather have James Williams or Addison? I'd rather have Jameson Williams. Same. Cortland Sutton comes in at 19. Good for you, man. Wider's 3, 49 off the board, 16 in consistency, was the same old guy in the first half again. Rookie quarterback. 32nd. Yeah, but exactly. Like the same problems for Sutton. Quarterback consistency, you're a good player, but, you know, the ball finds you sometimes. Second half he was the seventh most consistent player. He's all, this should tell you everything you need to know about Corlin Sutton. He's on one of my teams. What has that been?

Yeah, what does that? What does that mean is that, like, I would never be caught dead with Coral and Sutton on any of my teams. Now he's on. I intentionally put him on my team. I got it. I gotcha. He's on the championship team with Al Borland. He just held up his Cortland Sutton trophy. That's right. I mean, that's where I became a believer this year in him as at least the alpha for Bo Nix. And if the wide receiver court doesn't change a lot, he'll still be a value next year. There's no way he's going to go anywhere near wide receiver.

15, 16 where he is in consistency. It certainly seems like he will be their wide receiver one next year. They've got a lot of other holes to replace. They've got to fix the running game. Sorry, sorry. I don't. You just don't. You don't replace the hole. You fill the hole. You fill the hole. I just never heard him replacing the holes, but go on. That's fair. It's interesting. So the ultimate draft kit. With another hole? That's what it sounds like. An even bigger one? You put the replace the hole with another hole. I don't know. We did what you asked, sir. We replaced the hole. Yeah, man. You can't tell, but it's a new hole. You said replaced the hole. So the ultimate draft kit, the dynasty portion of that.

It drops on Sunday. We probably should have mentioned that while you were gone earlier. Yeah. We're, you know, we're working on all of that content right now. And our dynasty startup rankings will be live. So if you're an ultimate foot clan member, you already have access to that on Sunday. Our dynasty startup rankings, rookie rankings, those type of stuff will launch. But I bring all that up to say Cortland Sutton was the hardest. player for me to figure out where to put in a dynasty league because he's you know he's 29 years old i do expect next year he is their wide receiver one how much improvement or regression from boat for bo knicks on a touchdown you know he had eight touchdowns this year which is a pretty good number especially for a rookie and so it's like okay i think he's got one more good year but eventually they're going to have to step it up add to this wide receiver core

I think I agree with you that I don't think they're going to add to that core this offseason. I don't either. I think where they need help is going to be, you know, protect Bow Nix and get a running back. Yeah, they need a running back bad. Sean Payton really wants to have a running game and it's impossible. You just can't. Sutton was very consistent, 50% good games, only 6% great. So it was, it turned into a very consistent experience with Corlin Sutton, double digits, almost every week down the stretch, seventh in consistency. You know, it's great. It's awesome to see. And he was interesting of he was far more productive against man coverage instead of zone. So maybe the down tick there that we mentioned at the top of the show of defenses running zone going down a little bit. Because, like, man, yards per route run, it's over three. Like that's incredible. And then zone, it was down under two yards per route run. So it may be more.

predictable with moving forward with him with that information if we can get a hold of which defenses are preferring to go with man coverage. And I mean, it makes sense for the prototype of wide receiver that he is. Like he's the traditional X wide receiver where it's like the bigger guy. Let's let him win a 50-50 ball. There's going to be some contract problems here too. He's going into the last year of his deal. He wanted to get an extension this last year. Couldn't get it done. So I don't know if you're going to have hold in trade requests, whatever. I don't know that the Broncos are wanting to extend the 29 year old wide receiver for a long time. Breaking news. Portland Sutton just signed a contract extension, Jason. Yeah, that sounds. I feel like we've done that before. Oh my gosh. That's not true. For reference. No, that is. Oh, if that was true, that would be impossible. Because the last time he signed one, you also said he wouldn't sign one.