Top 10 QB Rankings + Evolving Opinions, Deshaun Warlock - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/13

Mahomes would be my number one. I nerfed the touchdown rate from Lamar Jackson. I believe that the Kansas City Chiefs off. It's going to have a phenomenal year. You know, I've got Pat Mahomes back up to 40 touchdowns. Not many times has that been done before. And when I looked at my rankings at the end and saw that, oh, Lamar Jackson is still number one. The rushing baseline is pure outlandishness. It is, I mean, he's broken pretty much

every record that existed. The only other quarterback, you know, since 2000 to rush for 1,000 yards was Michael Vic, and he just barely beat it. Lamar Jackson had 1, and he didn't play 16 games. To give you context on why he's still number one, even if he has a regression, which he will, because they all do when they have seasons like this. His fantasy point production last year was, you know, 70 points over somebody like Dak Preska. So if it comes down,

It's still number one by a wide margin. Yeah, the reason why Lamar Jackson is not a second round pick for me. I'm not calling for a regression. Which is where he's going right now. I'm not calling for regression on the rushing. I think Lamar Jackson is going to rest for over 1,000 yards again. Maybe it's 1,100 and not 1,200, but that's whatever. That's a very small difference. The regression is in the passing touchdowns. 9% of his attempts turned into a touchdown. That number.

is astronomical. Reminder, the league average for players that throw the ball, or that have like 200 attempts, it's like 4.6. It fluctuates from like 4.5 to 4.7. So the efficiency is going to come down. He still is my number one quarterback. But the thing is, if that efficiency does come down as historically it always does, then he's not the weak-to-week difference maker that it would take.

for him to pay back the value of a second round pick. It's tough of Lamar. I mean, we have him at one. He's actually being drafted behind Patrick Mahomes. What? Yeah, there are two picks apart, but he's being drafted behind Patrick Mahomes. And if efficiency comes down, I don't think the consistency changes almost at all because of the rushing baseline. No, he'll still be a top 12 quarterback on a weekly basis, but does he keep hitting that number one spot? Where do you draft them in a two QB or a Super Flex league?

Superflex or 2QB. I think he's in conversation from the first pick through about the sixth pick. I mean, he's going to be a first round guy for sure. Any worry about injury? Because when you rush the ball 176 times, 1,200 yards. I've seen some good injury analysis done.

on the specificity of types of run, design versus scramble, the percentage of his runs. And it leads me to believe that he is not at any more high of an injury risk than most other quarterbacks the way that he's been running the ball. That's not to say that, I mean, any player can get injured, but I don't have the same worry that I had last year before reading that analysis that looked deep into the...

genuine context of not just Lamar Jackson, but historical injury rates on rushing attempts by quarterbacks. Patrick Mahomes comes in at number two, and last year had the injury, which was in the Denver game in week seven. If you look at the very small six-week sample size prior to that, he was on pace for 5,600 passing yards and 37 passing touchdowns.

When you're on pace for 5,600 passing yards, it is worth highlighting. I mean, he threw for 50 touchdowns the year before. His pace, even though he was literally a blaze, was only 37 passing touchdowns. That was the offseason narrative. We knew that the passing touchdowns are going to come down because they've come down for everybody that's ever hit that mark. And they're, you know, they're just a variable that changes over time. But his career touchdown rate is 6.9%.

Yes, he is excellent. Honestly, I think the only thing to talk about with Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes, single quarterback league, what round will you actually draft? Third round? Third round, Jason? Yeah, that's right where I am. I think I would consider it in the fourth. Which means that we probably live. But there's still people out there. Look, the game of drafting late round quarterbacks, it's about getting value for a position where there's only...

One started generally. We're talking about single quarterback leagues. There's one started. So there's only 12 quarterbacks going, and you've got to extract the value. That doesn't mean you bury your head in the sand of a quarterback who can be a difference maker in the third for you guys and in the fourth for me. Yeah, it's one of those things where home leagues now, it's known that like, oh, you should draft your quarterback. It's popular. It's popular. You don't want.

to be the first one drafting a quarterback. You don't want to be the loser that's like, early quarterback. It's not a game of chicken. But the point is, is if that pushes your specific league to put those quarterbacks out of value, not at their average draft price that's, you know, the normal league, but if your league lets them drop, then have the confidence in that third or fourth round to take them. But at, you know, in the second, it is certainly.

much more difficult to pay off when you are replacing a stud running back, a stud wide receiver, and you're ripping them out of a position that you need collectively between those two positions, at least six guys. Number three, it's Dak Preska, comes in at number three. Number three for myself and Jason, number four for Mike, currently being drafted as the QB4 in the sixth round.

Is he the real best value considering the weapons that he has? The fact he finished number two overall last year. Obviously, Mahomes had the injury. But, I mean, he has been a machine four seasons, four top 12 finishes at the quarterback position. Cooper, Lamb, Gallup, Zeke, and, I mean, burying the lead here, Blake Jarwin. Thank you. I appreciate that. Mike McCarthy takes over. Mike McCarthy has come out and said he's the one learning the most this offseason.

In other words, the Kellynne Moore system is staying put and he is trying to learn it. I mean, that's great news. That is. For an offense, you know, you don't want Mike McCarthy to come into this great offense of last year and then be like, all right, guys, look at how I run things. You know, they had this most of the same players. No, he's searching for coattails. The same. Yes, exactly. But he's good at that. Yes. I mean, he has found a championship. Many years of Aaron's coattails.

We're on to the next. Does that mean whenever he goes to like a black tie. He's in tails, right? Of course. Like he has the jacket with full tails. Well, now I'm just imagining him on the sideline in a full penguin suit. Yes. That's how he coaches now? Yeah, he's the penguin. Oh my gosh. That's not a great comp.

Not a lot of ambition to be compared to the penguin. So here's where you start, Andy, you said, okay, so is he the best value, right? Well, he's a sixth round pick. Sixth round pick. He's our, you know, consensus quarterback three was great last year. The offense is intact. He could be the number one. Could finish his number one. Right. So is he that value. And I think this is where you have to bring up. Yes, he was the quarterback two last year.

He was, you know, maybe the quarterback three in reality if Mahomes wasn't injured. But the gap on a per game basis between those top two guys and the next best is monumental. You look at the gap between DAC and the quarterback 12, and it isn't, it's not as big as you think. So I don't necessarily look here and say, okay, well, this is great. I only have to replace a sixth round running back or wide receiver.

I don't think that he's a gimmie in the sixth. If he drops, I do like him. But there's so many quarterbacks that I think are able to do, not necessarily the odds aren't as high as Dax. But there are a lot of quarterbacks later that are able to do what I think DAC could do this year. Interestingly, last year, Dac had the most wide receiver drops in the NFL. He threw 30 touchdowns, almost 5,000 yards. He was great.

He does not run the ball the way, you know, Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray, some of those players do. Kyler and Dak are going at the exact same spot in drafts, essentially. Do you find yourself, because when I asked the value question, is Kyler somebody that you're more willing to grab in the sixth round than Dak because of the rushing upside? Because of the fact that Kyler, I mean, last year in his rookie season over 500 rushing yards, he does have the ability to go for 5, 6, 700 rushing yards in the right season.

Which would raise the ceiling? It's a great question to put those two next to each other because when you say Dak or Kyler, I lean towards Dak because I've seen it and he's safer. But if you're drafting someone at this point for them to really be worth it and help you win a championship, you need the breakout. And if you talk about sealing between Dak and Kyler, Kyler's rushing yardage.

says that if the passing touchdowns and the passing volume comes, DAC wouldn't be able to keep up with Kyler because of the rushing capability. So maybe Kyler is the higher ceiling. Kyler was the quarterback seven last year in a season in which he threw 20 touchdowns. Yeah, that's why it's, the answer for me is it's Kyler. QB7 and now you add DeAndre Hopkins into that.

I focus on the fact that Carla Murray, 3.7% of his attempts turn into a touchdown. Because if you are watching Arizona Cardinals games, you would see the offense moving fantastically. And then as soon as they get into the 20, into the red zone, things just...

sputter out and they have to kick a field goal. Yeah, over and over and over. And now you add DeAndre Hopkins. Now you add a second year in the NFL for Carla Murray. That's why I would go with him over DAC. Okay, and Kyler is four on our consensus list. Last year, like I said, 20 touchdowns, 544 rushing yards, four touchdowns on the ground. DeAndre Hopkins arrives, that is a big deal. Yes. It is an always open Hall of Fame caliber wide receiver that you add to.

an offense that was taking strides forward. Christian Kirk played hurt last year. He's back healthy. You have Larry Legend. And you have Kenyon Drake, a very capable pass catching running back out of the backfield. The sky is the limit for Kyler. Yeah. What's the floor? What can go wrong there in Arizona? Oh, a lot could go wrong. I mean, the blueprint for how it goes wrong.

has been brought up. It's Baker Mayfield. Baker had a phenomenal rookie season. He adds O'Dell Beckham Jr. The Browns were the hot team. I mean, drafted high. Basically, Baker was expected to take that step forward. And instead, the offensive line got a little bit worse. O'Dell Beckham wasn't the same O'Dell Beckham we had seen. And instead of taking that year to leap forward,

Teams have film on Baker and maybe he takes a year to step back. I mean, this is about Kyler Murray, not his pieces. This is about whether or not he is taking a step forward, getting better at his reads. You look at last year, so many rookie idiocy moments where he's taking a 20-yard sack, you know, that he absolutely does not need to take. Sure. So, you know, there are ways it can go wrong. Kyler is nowhere near as safe as deck.

Kyler's floor is, you know, he sputters and falters, but his ceiling is monumental. Yeah, he did have some real terrible games last year. So, you know, even though the final numbers were good, he had back-to-back weeks in week seven and eight where you were like, oh, no, the wheels are falling off for Kyler, finishing at the basement fantasy-wise. And the end of the year wasn't good either. We hope DeAndre Hopkins helps him take that step forward. But now you get into the murky land of like,

So, Dak, he has these warts, these reasons why he might not be worth that six-round pick. Kyler, yes, the upside's there, but it's far from a guarantee, like you said. Does he take the Carson-Wince Lamar Jackson's second-year leap? Or does he go the way of Baker Mayfield? For the record, we all assume he's taking a leap forward. Correct. And that is not, I mean, we are Arizona.

you know, Cardinal fans, but that is not the rationale. We've been down on plenty of Cardinals plenty of times. The evidence says he should take a step forward because it's not just him. It's Cliff Kingsbury, shame in and was a rookie in the NFL as a head coach and was figuring things out to completely change the offense after four weeks and trying to run his 10 personnel. So coming into year, too, there's a lot of reason for Optimus. Finish QB7 last year is QB5 is the ADP for Carla Marie right now. All right.