The TRUTH: Top 10 Fantasy QBs + Scramby Daniels - Fantasy Football Podcast for 1/16

Maybe Derrick Henry opened things up for him. But he didn't really have the weapons. Like some of these top guys, him and Josh Allen both, and they're both in the MVP race. It wasn't like Zay Flowers just dominated or Mark Andrews dominated. Well, I mean, it's weird because I was going to bring this up. He added Derrick Henry who dominated. He was this consistent. That is not going to be the story of Jalen Hurts when we get there. Jalen Hurts was drafted as the quarterback two off the board. He did not finish to his expectation. He had Saquon. He does have weapons, right?

Right. AJ Brown and Devontae Smith. Yeah. And yet his situation, he was pushed to the periphery. Whereas, you know, Allen and Lamar are the top two on our board. When you have, like, it's his second year in the Monken system. We've kind of been talking about this recently. Having all these OCs change all over the place, it sucks. Because it, I mean, it takes a while to get an offense truly out there and really fully running where people aren't thinking about things. They know it. I mean, think about anything that you've done for a long time. And when you started doing it, you have to consciously think about what the steps are.

And then eventually you get to muscle memory where you can just do it. You don't even think about it. You just go out there and do it. And the, like, Lamar's passing. Like, his numbers as a passer, he still would have been a top five, top three fantasy quarterback. 4,040. And then he just gave you 900 rushing yards. So, the addition of Derrick Henry to me, huge deal, of course. But adding Derrick Henry doesn't turn you into a 4,000 yard with 40 plus touchdowns. Like, through the air, it's not a, that's not. You're saying it was Lamar. Yeah. This was Lamar, full level up in this system.

We're hearing, I guess I haven't heard rumors recently of Monken getting some head coaching interviews. Because if he left, I think it would be, it would be very upsetting next year. Like, Lamar would be great for fantasy. It was Greg Roman in 2019. But we've seen, we've seen him be hot and cold when, when he has to keep changing all systems. And that was Greg Roman's first season in Baltimore. Yeah. So, I, look, number one in fantasy points per drop back. Number one in passer rating. Number one in yards per attempt. Number one in passer rating versus zone. And a lot of it is that line between before he takes off and the elusiveness of getting outside

the pocket. And players are just going to come open as the play breaks down. He's so good at that. He's in control at all times. This is the guy. Will he be the first quarterback drafted? Probably. I mean, between him and now. Him and Josh Allen. Him and Josh Allen will be really close. But like, we were, Jason and I were so excited for Monken and the Ravens offense last year. Like, this is what we were hoping for. We just, it was a year or two early. I will add to this, and this is probably the final thing we'll say here, because we don't

need to talk about Lamar forever. He's really good. He's going to be drafted high. He's going to be good. But that 2019 season, he had a 9% touchdown rate. We talk about this a lot of times with these players. Which is outlandishly high. It's outlandishly high. And I'm going to read you his normal touchdown rate from that point on, because that was really his first season. Then it dropped after that unbelievable fantasy season to 6.9. Pretty nice. 4.2, 5.2, 5.3. And then this year, back up to 8.6. So it's not the norm. The touchdowns aren't as sticky and predictable when you're 40.

I can't. I would be very surprised if he back-to-backs 40 touchdowns. No, I think that's fair. We'll get into Josh Allen in a minute. We'll take a quick break and we'll hit the number two quarterback on our list. All right. Fellow 28-year-old Josh Allen, the other part of the MVP race, came in at number two. First half consistency score of six. Second half of three. Ends the year as the second most consistent quarterback. It was red light, green light to start the year. We all remember. Number one quarterback against Arizona in week one, all the way down to 28 in week two.

Then back up to number two in week three. Then down to 28 against Baltimore in week four. We didn't know what the new normal was going to be for Josh Allen without Stephon Diggs, without Gabe Davis, with this system. Without Amari Cooper yet. Right. Well, he made such a difference. Great games, 31% of the time. So just below where Lamar was. Good games, 63%, but he did bust 25% of the time. Three of those games in the bust category came in the first five weeks. So you could also look at, hey, he's adjusting to new personnel. You know, kind of found what they were looking for from week nine on, really.

And was the number three most consistent in the second half. Unbelievably high numbers, big numbers against bottom 16 defenses. So when you look at fancy points per game, 19.39 against top 16 defenses. And that was a good sample size. 11 times they played those defenses. In the six games where he should, like when you would predictably come in here and say, oh, it's going to be good for Josh Allen. It was so good. 33.5 fancy points in those games. So they, when they, you know, the big problem with Buffalo to me when we were going through the season was. A lot of running game, a lot of total, you know, not a lot of plays in the game.

Slower offense. Still kind of worked out for Josh Allen. Just not the way we had seen it in the past. Yeah, it's, it's, it's, it's interesting of, uh, you know, like the Ravens just real quick of like, it, it might be just an entire team regression. Because they were, you have Lamar's numbers. And then you have Derek Henry, who's almost at 2000 rushing yards, double digit touchdowns. I mean, Josh Allen still, the James Cook tied the Bills, uh, running back rushing touchdown record. He tied OJ Simpson. So it's not like guys weren't taking away points from Josh Allen. The, you hate to see that split being that drastic, uh, over the course of a season, but they're, that's not going to freak me out with, uh, you, we have enough sample of Josh Allen.

No, and I, I also think that there's, I mean, it's crazy with having as good a year as he had to think he could still get better next year. You know, when I look at these two guys, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and I think who's going to, who gets better next season. I think there's more pathway there for Josh Allen. His rushing touchdowns are more secured because they do the tush push type of move. They, they score, he scores more around the goal line. Lamar's tend to be further out, but you look at this. This is the first time over the last eight years that a top five quarterback, not just like the quarterback too, but even just a top five has failed to have a top 30 wide receiver or a top 10 tight end.

He didn't have great weapons. Like I don't think Lamar has excellent weapons, but his are better. Mark Andrews and Zay flowers are better than the hodgepodge that Josh Allen was working with. This was very much the Brady type year for Josh Allen where Brady would have productive years. And sometimes you couldn't point to, he didn't always have Randy Moss. Right. Like it was Dion branch and other players. The number that you looked at last off season and said, Hey, he scored 15 times on the ground last year. He's not going to do that again. Well, he scored 12 times on the ground.

How many touchdowns did he throw? When he was number one last year, he threw 29. This year he threw 28. Touchdown rate, much more reasonable. He's had two years where he was higher than the 5.8% this year in the past. He has, this is the first time in five years that he hasn't thrown for 4,000 yards. He threw for 600 fewer yards this year. And, um, I think that was noticed in fantasy, right? Like I think you did feel it, but he ended up not being that bust potential guy that lets you down. He actually had back-to-back number one finishes right going into the fantasy playoffs during the fantasy playoffs.

He had a down week against new England. That one hurt. But again, very, very consistent Josh Allen. Yeah. I mean, he's also going to break the all-time rushing touchdown number for quarterbacks. He could do it next year. Joe Burrow comes in at three. Yes. Joe Burrow at three. He was drafted as the quarterback seven in the sixth round. 31% great games, 50% good, 19% busts. That is fewer than Josh Allen in the bust category. Consistency-wise, welcome to the Joe Burrow experience. Start slow. This guy. First half of the year, number 12, including number 29 overall finish in week one against

New England that made everybody go, uh, what's going on? Number two in consistency in the second half of the season. An absolute machine. His splits are even against great defenses and bad defenses. His home road splits are within 2.8 points. I mean, so it was just, it was very even keeled here. Everyone could score on the bangles, Mike. Yeah. The teams with bad defenses and the teams with good defense, they could all score on the bangles. That did help. And then Burrow's like, okay, I got to keep doing this. I mean, it really was nice. Obviously they, they made a defensive coordinator change.

And I think that if their defense got better, they would like Joe Burrow to not have to score 40 every game in order to get a W, but he can. Um, it's good for fantasy. Oh, it's so good for fantasy. We 40, 900 yards, 43 passing touchdowns and nine interceptions. I'm hoping that don't MVP year. If you, Oh, for, you know, they just win playoffs. Yeah. I, I, I'm hoping they don't replace the DC with anyone. Um, they just leave that vacant. Oh, just nobody. No, but focus on the offense. Like the defense shows up for practice and they're just looking around.

Yeah. It's self-taught. Oh, so I mean, like, yeah, yeah, yeah. You guys, you guys go on that field, figure some stuff out, man. Who's going to be the first one with an AI defensive coordinator, but like in a, one of those, you know, Tesla robots comes out there. Oh, so it's actually. Yeah. But it's shaped like Rex Ryan. Oh, he's a big boy. That's a big robot. Yeah. It's gotta be scary. Super white teeth. Loves feet. Um, to bleep blop. Cover to bleep blop. Um, okay. Joe Burrow. What else is there to say? The, the pocket passer. Yeah. He is a pocket passer.

So we, man, we, uh, by we, I mean me. Really hope that T Higgins is back for Joe Burrow. If you like fantasy points from Joe Burrow, you should also hope that T Higgins is back. Cause it's a Joe Burrow with, you know, some other options that Jamar chase can still be great, but for a pocket passer to hit this type of a ceiling, I mean, to do it without a second, really good weapon on the field is your, your probability goes way down. This was the exact same points per game he had in 2022. 20, you know, last year, 10 games, 14.7 points per game.

Not a good pick, not a good fantasy pick. And then this year, right back to form. Yeah. I mean, last year he was dealing with the, the injury off of camp, starting slow. And then he starts with his bull crap at the beginning of the year, which he always does. And then. Didn't get to settle in. Got hurt. Yeah. But I mean, career high. I mean, his quarterback rating was down and everything too. Yes. His, but this season career high in completion percentage, career high in passing yards, career high in touchdowns. Um, thankfully his touchdown rate, you know, he was 6.6.

That's not an outlandish number. He's been 6.5 in the past before. Um, you know, when you look at these pocket passers and this was our argument, like I know a lot of foot clan had Joe burrow because we were talking about how some of these guys like Jordan love and CJ Stroud, you were hoping that they could develop into what we've already seen several seasons of from Joe burrow while Joe burrow was going rounds later. So the, the nice thing for drafting Joe burrow is he's done this several times. Last season was a down season for him. He was injured.

It was bad, both on a per game basis. And obviously he missed, you know, almost half the season, but now over the last four seasons, three of the last four seasons, he's been really, really good. You want to hear something crazy? 652 pass attempts compared to Josh Allen's four 83, 169 more pass attempts for Joe burrow than Josh Allen. You can imagine if Allen got to throw the ball that much, the kinds of numbers. numbers, 102, 102 carries for Josh Allen. Yeah. I mean, that's, that's going to be the variable for Joe burrow though, is that you're going to get the great games and then you're going to run the risk of not going 43 and nine every

year because the greats didn't do it. Right. Brady didn't do it. Stafford never did it. Joe burrow next year is probably going to be a very sketchy ADP pick. I just don't know if he'll go. I don't think he'll go proportionate to where he's finishing here. I think he will, he will, he'll go behind her. Stroud. He'll be in the, he'll be in like the fifth. Yeah. That, that makes sense. I think that will still go behind. Obviously Daniels will go ahead of him and Josh Allen and Lamar ahead of him and hurts. Yeah. Hurts will go ahead of him.

Number four guys. Number four. The truth of the quarterback position. It's Jaden Daniels. Wild. Who was number four in the first half in consistency. Number four in the second half in consistency. Finishing as our third most consistent player. That's wild. I mean, 38% great games. Well, when you, when you set the all time rushing record for a rookie quarterback, that's going to be very helpful for fantasy football. Uh, yeah, 891 yards, six rushing touchdowns, 63% good games, 25% bust games, better numbers against better defenses, five fancy points more per game against upper echelon opponents. Right. Well, it was by the end of the year, it was, that was only three games and they didn't play

a lot of great. Yeah. So I mean, that's, that's more interesting of a, the success of Washington for next year is the fact that they'll get a worse schedule. Man, you, you, you might've lucked out here on some, some teams defenses turning sour. Yeah. I mean, the, the nice thing is that on a player level, and I don't know, maybe going into year two, they'll try to reign this back, which could be bad for fantasy, but it wasn't just that he had a lot of rushing attempts. It was that those rushing attempts came as scrambles. This was a play breaks down.

He starts running. He takes off. He had 75 total scrambles. That is the most all time since the, the, at least since that's been tracked, uh, since 2016 from PFF. And a scramble is worth two times more fantasy points than designed runs between the scrambles are the good stuff. Yeah. That's, that's where it's like, ham, eggs, cheese. Oh yeah. Put a little onion in it. Oh baby. That's how I started my morning. This, this, this, this, this, this, at home, at home, home, scramby, scramby, did you go egg whites or full egg? Full egg, full egg. I want that yolk, bro.

Scamby Daniels. Uh, Oh no, no, I, I mean, I want scramby Daniels. Oh, no, I don't know about that. I don't know about that one. Maybe that's a pass. Yeah. Let's, let's keep it. Let's keep the scrambles at Denny's. Let's put that on the heater over there and then turn the heat lamp off. We'll come back to it. We'll revisit. Probably not going to stick with that one. He likes to scramble, huh? Uh, yes, he does. And so hopefully, hopefully next year he keeps up with that because that's a player trait. Um, and I don't want the team to say, I, you know, we're going to try to tell

him to stop doing it. Don't stop. Don't turn into Kyler Murray. And I was going to say for fear of, uh, walking down the scramble road again, he's one of the most, like he was smart for the most part. Yeah. Not every play, but a lot of his. Unlike what you saw in college. Oh man. He was a lot smarter. That was his college. I know people. He did take some hits. People had other like, like, Oh, I have real concerns. Big questions about. Jane Daniels. I was, everything was the hits of him getting absolutely crushed and in college all the

time, seemingly unable to, to find the final defender who is going to take him out. But yeah, it was much better. All right. The number five fantasy quarterback was Baker Mayfield who did finish at number five in consistency. Number two in the first half, number 11 in the second half probably deserved to take home some footies just because he was so surprisingly good. 31% great games, 56% good. 19% bust. That is a low number. If you played him every week, right? You're looking. We always talk about streaming the quarterback position, which means starting different quarterbacks in different matchups. If you don't have a guy that you can start every week.

I'm sure that during the first six weeks of the season, Baker still felt like a hundred percent, a streaming quarterback where the shoe was going to drop. Then week six, number one overall week seven, number two. Now you believe week eight, number five overall. Goodbye, Chris Godwin. No, not just Chris Godwin. Weeks nine and 10, two of his four worst weeks was goodbye, Mike Evans. So, I mean, this is where he had no Mike Evans, no Chris Godwin, and was average for those couple of weeks. Every game that he had Mike Evans, I mean, his consistency was great. His touchdowns, I mean, he threw north of 40, right?

I don't have his numbers in his touchdowns. 41. Yes, he did. I mean, that's insane. Now, I imagine that his, you know, his touchdown rate is one of those things that's going to regress. I'm not going to draft Baker to repeat what he did this year. I, you know, Bucky will get more involved in the running game starting next season, but this is a, there's a player that prior to this season was a career 4.6% touchdown thrower. And he's pretty consistent with that. And it skyrocketed to 7.2. So when they, when they got around the goal line, he was, able to throw touchdowns.