Starts of the Week + Week 15 Breakdown, Clown Ghidorah! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 12/12

Zach Gertz would be probably the first name I'm looking for against New Orleans. They're coming off the buy. He's a big part of this offense. Touchdowns in three straight games. His target share over the last month actually increased from 20% to 23%. They've lost Noah Brown. The commanders are seven and a half point road favorites in New Orleans. It's a good matchup for tight ends. So like if you're out there scouring for a start off the waivers, That's where I'm pointing his direction. I'm surprised. You could do a lot worse. Yeah, I agree. Urch is a good play. I'm surprised that Jason with the, your hero ball mentality. That you're not just like, Jordan Akins, baby. We ride with James. Yeah, I mean, Jordan Akins could be a very good glory play. To be fair, personally, I'm not picking up Zacherts to play.

just simply because my opponent who is a massive... He's got Jane Daniels, and I'm a massive underdog, so I can't catch up with Zackertz. But I do think he's got a high enough floor where most people on waivers have a floor of zero. There's a bunch of weird waiver wire tight ends hanging out there right now, like the Calcutaras of the world. You saw Bellinger with seven targets. I'm not going there. But Joanne Johnson... You know, Isaiah likely on a lot of waiver wires. You never know what's going to happen there. There's some dart throws out there. But Ernst is a high target dart throw. Exactly. He's the only one I know is going to have six targets. Yeah. Yeah. No, I agree. I did like Calcatera's 91% of snaps. And when you look at that game where he did score, and they only threw for, what, 108 yards, something stupid. Like there's a world where he becomes interesting as well. Sure.

All right, into the forecast we go. It's time for Fantasy Forecast, presented by Draft King Sportsbook. All right, no more by weeks. We'll start with Kansas City, the 12 and 1 super talented, best team ever historical superstars, the Chiefs. Taking on the 3 and 10 Cleveland Browns, the games in Cleveland, Kansas City four-point favorites. The overrunners, 44. It's just been a weird year. Like they're a good team. They don't feel like a 12 and 1 team. They've won their last three games by three, two, and two. Before that, they lost and then won by two. So their last four wins have been tight. And they've also scored 16, 19, and 19 in three of those games. Oh, gross. From an offensive perspective, what are you doing?

I mean, what are you doing with, like, Kelsey's been disappointing for four straight games outside the top 12, you know, Hopkins and Juju and Worthy and, like, it just hasn't added up to big production for anybody. No, I think the passing game for the Chiefs is a little bit worrisome. You're pretty much dealing with flex level options. If you want to start Hopkins, that's fine. He's, usually good for that 10-point baseline. But I don't think you've got anyone here in the passing game that can explode for a monstrous game. Kelsey, super disappointing, but you're not going to bench him. He's got the ability to score a touchdown. He could have 10 targets at any game. The Cleveland Brown's defense isn't particularly great against tight-in. It's weird that he makes you nervous now. Like I have Zach Ertz. I'm not playing Earths over Kelsey, but there's part of me that's like,

In the back of my head is just like he's going to have a better game. Yeah. The only chief that I think is seemingly a good play is actually Isaiah Pacheco. He seems like he has gotten the role back. He had 18 opportunities last game. Cream Hunt kind of evaporated. He wasn't great for fantasy by any means last week. But I think the transition, it was like, you know, the three week transition. First week he did very little. Last week it seemed like he took over. And now I expect him to really. get the lion's share the role that he started the season with. Okay. On the other side, Cleveland, James Winston, we got the news yesterday that David Injoku is in jeopardy of missing this game, hamstring injury against the Steelers, did not practice, had been averaging almost 10 targets a game with James. Yeah, it was nice. Consolidation of targets may go, I mean, Judy's obviously in his receiving line 70 yards, but Elijah Moore.

seems more relevant, especially he's a short area target guy. Cedric Tillman, if he's back from the concussion, would be in play. He was limited on Wednesday with the amount of time he's missed. That's a trend in the right direction. Yeah, I heard some reporting that they believe he's going to pass protocol. Cedric Tillman would be right back into my lineup. I think he's a good play this way. You can't really run on the Chiefs. On the course of the season, schedule adjusted, they are the number one. They give up the fewest points to running backs in fantasy football. So you're going to have James airing it out. Judy is obviously a lock-in, but Tillman, I wouldn't be scared or hesitate. Mike, are you confident in Winston as a top 12 guy this week? Confident is...

That's tough. We need it right now. We need confidence. He's been top 12. Well, he's James Winston, man. There's only so far I can push the chips. But he has been top 12 of three of the last four starts. So I think, yes, I think that he is worth the risk in this matchup. And to me, it's the wide receivers. It would be fun if Jordan Akins can get involved. But honestly, if Najoku is out, the 10 targets, that's. That's so much opportunity to spread between Judy Tillman and Elijah Moore. Judy's DK line is at 70 and a half receiving yards right now. Like Judy is, Judy's locked in. Play Winston over Mahomes. Oh, I would definitely play Winston over Mahomes. 11% of the time in his last 17 games, Patrick Mahomes has been a fantasy relevant quarterback. He is top 12 just once in the last month.

Your upside is so much higher with Winston. Yeah, for sure. Now, I will say this, since I made the decision to put in Winston over Baker, which I don't know, would you play Winston over Baker? Yes. I would. Would it change your opinion to know that it looks like this game is going to have some rain, 15 mile an hour wins with gusts up to 25 miles an hour? I do not. In Cleveland? Because Cleveland bad weather gets gross. I don't. It's amazing what you were able to do with your voice for that. Well, I was trying to make gross, gross. It was like the weather. I don't care about the, like I'm paying attention to the forecast obviously, but so much changes between now and Sunday. So, you know, have a pivot option, but you could be fine on Sunday in that game. They get it wrong a lot. Yeah, currently not worried. Cincinnati is five and eight. The Titans are three in ten.

Cincinnati is working on running the table to try to get themselves a spot in the playoffs where, you know, they could, they could do some work there. Tennessee is three and ten. That would be so awesome, wouldn't it? Like, if, if, if, if Sexy actually made the playoffs with the bad start they had, wouldn't that be like, it'd be fun? I feel like everyone would be rooting for. It's going to be tough. It's going to be tough. The best they could do is nine and eight, but they have Tennessee, then they have Cleveland, then they have Denver at home. and then they finish against a Pittsburgh team that could be sitting guys in Week 18. That'll be a weird one because if Pittsburgh's spot is locked up, but they could keep a division made out of the playoffs. What do they do? Cincinnati's got it right in front of them. Tennessee is not likely to stand in their way. The overrunners 46, Cincinnati, five-point road favorites. And, you know, you have to, for this game to be competitive, Will Levis has to play professional football. That's bad to hear.

Yeah, it's just a tough, it's a tough ask of Will Lovis. Now, Ridley's line is 6 to 7 and a half yards, so you can play Ridley and you can acknowledge the fact that the Bengals' defense while improving is not a very good one. Tony Pollard is Jason start of the week, assuming he's out there and healthy, which it seems like he will be. End of the list for Tennessee. Those two players? You're not putting Nick Westbrook-a-Kine in there? I don't even know who that is. Ah. Ah. Okay. Is he, does he play for them? He does. Someone once told me he's out there on every single snap. I don't remember the name. Oh, I see what happened, guys. He was 100% of the snaps in week 13. Talk about Westbrook of Keene. He was down to 94% against Jacksonville. That's what those 6%. They cost him. So would you play him or McLaughlin?

Westbrook at Keenair McLaughlin. Boy, this is a real counseling session for Mr. Moore today. It's tough in the streets. Yeah. There are people that might be eating. Like they could be listening to us on their lunch break, Jason. You said something like that. It's shameful. He's been smoking a lot. Yeah, it would be McLaughlin. Joe Burrow, yes, Chase Brown. Of course. Jamar Chase forever and always. And then T. Higgins, coming off his first dud game, don't worry about it. Put him out there. That's easy. Cincinnati is really wonderful, wonderful on offense. And to be honest, a lot of that has been unlocked due to Chase Brown being a viable, talented, every down running back. And we didn't have that at the beginning of the year. They tried the Moss experiment. But, yeah, Chase Brown, he's awesome. He's been dominating. And looking the part, like, it's not.

It's not just opportunity. He is so fast and capable. It's been a breath of fresh air. The Washington commanders at 8 and 5 take on the Norland Saints who are 5 and 8. We don't even know if it's Spencer Rattler or Jake heinous. They don't even know. The draft king's the advantage. I don't think it's an advantage. I think they literally haven't made a decision. No, they're splitting reps. Draft Kings has the Washington commanders. Seven and a half point favorites. The overrunners, 43 and a half. That gives New Orleans just 18 points. That's kind. The commanders should, the commanders should do real work in this game, almost to the point where because defensively, I think it's going to be so easy on them that I do worry a little bit about the high end upside of the offensive pieces, but.

It doesn't affect your start sit decision. No. Brian Robinson is awesome. Terry McLaurin is unsidable. Jaden Daniels. Even if, you know, look, to get a giant lead, you score touchdowns. He's going to be running the ball plenty, and he's been great at throwing touchdowns, rushing touchdowns. I think it's very easy on this side of the ball. You're going to start those studs. Yeah, so that leads me to this. question, which there are people who need nasty boys out there. Let me find my little button. Brian Robinson, did we say the line? His Russian lines at 74 and a half. That's fantastic. What do you do about Chris Rodriguez Jr.? He's talented. He's a good player. He had 13 carries. He had 94 yards. He could be salting the game away.

Exactly. That's why I bring, do we feel like he is? I think he's in the McLaughlin category. I think he is viable as well. Yeah. I think Chris Rodriguez Jr. is a potentially very sneaky touchdown threat. Like it can be dangerous to. I mean, would you have started Echler in this game? Let me ask you that. Oh, yeah. So, you know, the production from Rodriguez was on a level where they want to manage the running back room. Projecting game script. Like, it. projecting the game stripped out and then looking at, oh, well, this running back could get in because they're the backup and the game could be out of hand. It can be a dangerous line of thinking. But I think in this particular matchup, especially where the Saints being just awful against running backs on the season dead last, if you adjust for schedule, I think he's in play. All right. And McLaren, by the way, his consistency rating, which this is a world that you didn't ever expect, but he's an A.

Unbelievable. He's at 70% of his games exceeding 10.5 fantasy points. He has like a machine this year. And if you look at his chart on the website, the fancy footballers.com, it is green all over the place. Wide receiver four last time he started. Wide receiver six. I mean, it's awesome. Congratulations, Terry. Yeah. It's one of the better stories of this season is Terry McLaurin. finally coming through. It's like DJ Moore last year where it's like, dude, we are so freaking sick of this player being a great talent, a really good wide receiver, and teams just destroying their career with their horrifically bad choices. And look, look what happened. Look what happened to Terry. So good. Camara, of course, you play him. But Kendra Miller, only 26% of snaps. You still need to keep your eyes on him.

but I wouldn't be starting him personally. Yeah, if you can avoid. So, well, let me ask you this. Would you rather start Kendrae Miller or Chris Rodriguez in this same game? Because you still have Jeremy McNichols who played about the same amount of snaps as Chris Rodriguez last week. He had fewer carries. And I think Chris Rodriguez is the better player. But it's not a guarantee that, you know, all the work goes to Chris Rodriguez, whereas the backup to Cameras clearly Kendra Miller. Miller at 26% of snaps. Jamal Williams is barely on the field, 7% of snaps. But they're not going to move the football. We've been here before with the backup quarterbacks. So I would go Rodriguez in that one. And Juan Johnson, dart throw at tight end. We'll be a friend to the bad quarterback, but it's terrifying. And I would rather play Zach Kurtz. His receiving yards line is 32 and a half. And you don't expect a touchdown. So what are you saying? Like you're going to get three points? No, thank you. All right. We'll take a break. We'll come back with some more matchups.

Gentlemen, prepare for this one. Prepare for the madness, that is, the Baltimore Ravens at 8 and 5, taking on the New York football giants who are 2 and 11, and the Baltimore Ravens on the DK Sportsbook, 16 point favorites, the over and a half, which means the Ravens are projected for nearly 30 points in the Giants with 13. May you have Derek Henry and may you not face Derek Henry. His DK rushing yardage line is 2,000 and a half yards for this game. I mean, it is. We have the actual line, Jay. Do you know what it is? I'm looking at it now. It's a perfect line. This is what I would want the line set at. You, it is very rare to see a triple digit line, but he's out of 100.5. So it's like, is he going to get 100 yards? I mean, the answer is yes. But like, yeah, I mean, he really should. We did.

just come off of disappointing Baltimore loss where Lamar, he talked extensively about the fact that he needed to run the football more. Yeah. Mama. Mama chewed him the business. But, you know, how much work do you got to do here? I mean, the Giants are going to start Tommy DeVito, the Baltimore defense, which shout out to the listener league out there. You let me sign them for a dollar. Oh, man. Losers. For the playoff matchup. Thank you. Yeah, I mean, this is the only, it's a sixth time in 32 years that you have a 16 point road favorite. There just aren't, there's no math equation to get a solution for the Giants, right? There's no solution. It doesn't matter what you do. There's not a solution. It's not, Tyrone Tracy's not going to lead them to victory. Malik neighbors can't do enough. DeVito, good luck. So this is. Are you playing Malik?

I mean, it wasn't good with DeVito's start. When was DeVito's, he's going to have 10 targets. Malik neighbors will have 10 targets. Now, what does that mean? Probably means five for 57 and no touchdown. Malik or Calvin Ridley? Oh, that's a really interesting one. I'll take Ridley. Ridley's receiving line is higher. Malik or Marv? I'll take Marv at home against New England. Yeah, that's an easy Marv for me. All right. No, it's not. It would probably get people to unfollow the show if we talk about the Giants anymore. Okay. But Lamar Jackson, Derek Henry, they're in. Zay Flowers is in. Mark Andrews is in. And, you know, do your work early, Baltimore. If Derek Henry has any chance to catch Sequin Barclay to be the rushing leader this year, this is the game where he catches up. Yeah, I mean, the Giants defense is 30th against the run over the last six weeks.

And that's against other running backs, not named Derek Henry. So, you know, I'd be a little bit, I'd be a little bit worried about counting on Zay Flowers. Yeah, I agree. Okay. He is a, he's a tougher start. He is actually his last four games, wide receiver 50, 31, 33, and 40. And this is a game where if Henry is the recipient of the first two touchdowns and there's a defensive play, Zayflowers. is not necessary. You will be deleted. Yeah, and you say, okay, Lamar's going to throw at least one touchdown, maybe two, but you've got other options. You know, Mark Andrews is the goal line touchdown machine. You could have it go to likely. Rashad Bateman is a full participant in practice. Flowers is dicey. We're having to decide in our double flex between Flowers and Travis Kelsey. And I don't know which one is worse, but I'm scared of both.

Yeah, that's a tough decision, those two. Flowers and Travis, are you favored? It's pretty heads up. I don't, yeah, I feel like your odds of a lower game are probably a little bit higher with flowers. I agree. I lean towards Kelsey right now. The Cowboys are 5 and 8. They take on the 3 and 10 Carolina Panthers, so we're doing the best job of almost winning. Yeah, but what's the line? Carolina minus three. Let's go, Bryce. Sports book. Come on, baby. Overrunners 43. The books. Almost win. He's favored. Come on, Bryce. Almost win. Yeah, the books like the way the Panthers are playing football right now. This is the first time they have been favored since drafting Bryce Young. That's awesome. How did you, who did you pick in this matchup? I haven't made the decision yet. No. I did not pick Bryce. Oh, okay.

Yeah, Dallas on the road, though, Cooper Rush. Probably because of Rico Dowto. I get it, Jay. No. Unstoppable. You know, this one is a battle of two bad rush defenses. I love Chuba Hubbard. I mean, I think Chuba Hubbard is so set up. He's a great running back. So you're, you like the guy who's really good, got a huge. Contract extension has been dominating all year and has absolutely no one in the backfield to take touches? Yeah, I mean, if he doesn't get, I mean, he had 30 opportunities last week, 31 last week. 31, you're going to kill the man. That's, I mean, you paid, you paid him the money to handle 31 opportunities. It's time to get it done. And it's very clearly feeling in the passing game. Legat has made mistakes. He also eats raccoons. He also, he eats raccoons.

He hunts him. He kills him. He skins him. He cooks him. That's a quote. That's a quote. Yeah. I didn't know that you did that. I mean, I didn't know you could. I mean, I guess I knew you could. Yeah. You can eat anything. Well, but I didn't know people did. I didn't know it was legal. You know what I mean? Are there food? There's like animals you can't eat. Trash panda. You know that. Well, right. But like, you can't just go out and kill any animal you want and skin and eat it. If they don't catch you, you can. Well, sure.

Yeah, I feel like this was a revelation that Legat revealed on the Amon Ross St. Brown and his brother podcast. Yeah, Equanimius. They were. Oh, poor EQ. I was actually just trying to remember. There's got to be a name for the podcast. It isn't that. Probably. I don't think I've ever heard the name of their podcast. Is it like the St. Browntown podcast? It is the St. Brown podcast. Oh, see, Browntown is probably not a good one. No, yeah. But Browntown, copyright. We get is. I love that guy. I do think that he is. I want him to play better though. Yeah. He's in consideration for a flex. But Adam Thielen is the leading target. When I went back and watched all the Bryce snaps and Bryce looked good, he, he.

looked so much more in sync with Adam Thielen. There was a lot of rookie mistakes from Leggett, including not catching the game winning touchdown. Lamb was heavily involved last week. You're always wincing the way he winces when he goes down on that shoulder, but should be fine. Yeah, it's one of those things where he's talked about practicing different ways to fall and get tackled and all that. And then when he has the ball on his hands, It all goes away. And he's like, watch this. He's just, it's muscle memory from, you know, whatever, 25 years, however old he is of, of just dominating defenders and breaking tackles. He won't go down. Like, what I want him to do is catch the ball, go down. Go get open. Catch the ball. Go play, you know, some Tyler Lockett football. They gave him, he had a rush attempt and it was a jet sweep. Am I remembering that right? You are? What are they doing? What?

I don't care how much I want to win the football game. I'm not running C.D. Lamb with a bum shoulder on a jet sweep. It's nonsense. Wouldn't it be great if they just run him straight out of bounds? Just like a straight line out of bounds. Keep him safe. He doesn't turn it upfield. Yeah. I mean, Jake Ferguson, by the way, outsnap the schoon man, six targets last week. He's a risky play, but he's in play. Cedie Lamb is the wide receiver five on the season? That is mind-blowing. It doesn't feel like it. It does not feel like that. And, I mean, that's just a testament to how great he is. Because he is fully injured and has no quarterback. It feels like that because he has only, he's only boomed one time. Like, in the meantime, you have Jamar Chase, who it's basically every game right now. But week one, or I'm sorry, week eight.

Against the 49ers, CD was 13 for 146 and 2. But other than that, it's just been like good top 20 finishes. Yeah, just solid. A lot of targets. Yeah. Just stay healthy CD. Seriously. All right. The New York Jets who are 3 and 10 take on the Jacksonville Jaguars who are 3 and 10. The Drafking sports book line is New York minus 3. The over under is 40 and a half here. That's not a lot. And so where's the fantasy value in this game? I mean, Adams is heavily involved last week. He feels really, he feels really safe in this game. This game is like Gary and Garret and Devante are in Adams reception lines at six and a half. That's pretty wild. And then Brian Thomas Jr.

He's in for me. The matchup is fine. You're hungry for more guy. Yeah, and the, I mean, he's been dominating the targets and dominating the offense. Mack Jones is doing the, probably the correct thing for him on this team of like, save me elite wide receiver. Other than that, though, they're on the, on the Jacksonville side, I'm not messing around with the running backs like ETN. ETN finally looked okay. in that matchup last week, and then Bigsby had 18 carries. So it's like, I'm out on that. The only hard decision for me in this game, it's the Jets running backs. Breece was it did not practice on Wednesday, but Braylin Allen, Isaiah Davis, they split. Davis looked better on the field, in my opinion. So where are you? How are you handling those two guys? I think both. That's a tough one. I expected to be near a 50-50 split if Breece is out, and I think both are fine starts. You have.

Over the last six weeks, the Jaguars are 32nd in fantasy points given up to the running back. So I am actually fine playing either one, not both together. And both of those take a tier above the McLaughlin, Chris Rodriguez range. Yeah, I would play. Chris Rodriguez is, I think, near that range. Mike, do you agree? I'd play the Jets guys over Rodriguez. Both of them. What other discussions are there for this game? The running back room and the Jacksonville side that has been. almost intentionally deleted from our minds. Yeah, it's tough because there is some value there. You know, Mike brought it up. Tank Bigsby had 18 carries. Travis ETN looked okay and is usually involved in the passing game. They're not going to do it. Yeah, I mean, they're low level options that can be started. I would start them over McLaughlin. McLaughlin could go out and be the starter or he could do nothing. Yes, I would start them over McLaughlin.

Well, I mean, fine, you did it. You beat me into accepting I have players that I would play the Jags over. I'm starting with Glaughlin right now. I know, and it's disgusting. I know. Our teams were like the exact same thing all year long, except people didn't score points against you. What he's saying is that you look like this dragon? What's the name again? A king Godora. Godora. Yeah. There's King Godora. Can you just cut out the head and put it on to Jason? I feel like the rest of the show. I feel like when you put this picture up, it looks like that's me and the three of us. And to be clear, it's Jason. All right, pull it. Pull it down. All right. Enough of that game. Please. Um, okay. Uh, I see Jason just let go of Kareem Hunt. Yeah. You know, it's tough. It's tough. It's the streets.