THE UNOFFICIALFOOTBALLERSFAN ARCHIVE↗Transcript links use the exact YouTube video’s clock. Machine transcripts can contain errors.
A longer-than-usual opening yell makes the desk assign Kyle an imaginary stopwatch and propose an over-under on Andy's welcome scream. The idea borrows from the absurd Rory McIlroy green-jacket arm prop, while Mike and Jason reaffirm that tails never fails.
The hosts say Kyle is half insane from digging through top-30-visit correlations. The work pays off later: teams with at least two running-back visits selected a back in the first four rounds 71 percent of the time over the preceding decade.
Jeremy, addressed as Al, refuses an early Christian McCaffrey pick because injury has burned him too many times. A genuine Ducers Alley cut shows the dim three-human booth while the hosts claim the bad lighting hides how yellow Jeremy is and invoke the Brock Bowers chicken line.
A Bucky Irving ceiling argument produces 'Rashad Dick White.' The desk immediately rules that one host owns the mutation and notes that the shortened middle-name gag had never before been spoken as a complete name with Dick in the middle.
One side forecasts 275 Bucky Irving carries excluding injury; the skeptical side accepts, and the desk seals it as a Water Bet. The published show then plays the real green Wheel of Water/Water Bet bumper, but no wheel is spun and no water is thrown.
The desk decides that Anthony Richardson can save his career by becoming the first quarterback to throw underhand in the Rick Barry granny style: just toss it forward and float it.
Prompted to defend Kenneth Walker, Mike says his Walker love and Joe Mixon disdain make every anti-Mixon argument disingenuous because the same objection can be judo-thrown back at Walker. His final defense is simply that Walker is different because Mike likes him.
After the consensus top 15 excludes Breece Hall, Jason chooses him as an omitted back who could still finish there. He frames it as a small light of joy in Breece's show history and answers the prediction that he will not draft Breece with 'I still might.'
Andy, Jason, and Mike are the only live main-desk occupants. The opening proposes an over-under market on the length of Andy's welcome scream, assigns Kyle the imaginary stopwatch, and recalls betting on which arm entered Rory McIlroy's green jacket; Mike and Jason also affirm that tails never fails. Kyle is then described as half insane from mining top-30-visit data, later supplying the finding that teams with at least two running-back visits drafted one in the first four rounds 71 percent of the time. Jeremy, addressed as Al, answers from Ducers Alley that Christian McCaffrey's injury risk has burned him too often; the program visibly cuts to a dim three-human producer row while the desk says the lighting hides how yellow Jeremy is and deploys the Brock Bowers chicken line. Bucky Irving analysis accidentally puts 'Dick' in the middle of Rachaad White's full name, then a 275-carry forecast becomes a Water Bet and triggers the real Wheel of Water bumper without anyone being splashed. Anthony Richardson is prescribed a career-saving Rick Barry-style granny throw, but no such throw is shown. Mike candidly admits his Kenneth Walker love makes his anti-Joe Mixon arguments disingenuous, reinforcing the Bone Zone. Jason still offers Breece Hall a small light of joy and says he might draft him even though Breece misses the consensus top 15. Complete published-video review finds ordinary desk coverage apart from standard bumpers and the real Ducers Alley cut; no imagined prop, player tableau, granny throw, or water punishment is physically enacted.
You know, over the last three years for the Detroit Lions, Jared Goff's yardage. It's gone up, but it's like three years ago, he's at 4,440 yards. Last year, almost 4,600. This year, just over 4,600. But those first two that I was quoting, he was throwing touchdowns at a 5% rate. He jumped up to almost 7% this past year. Like, that's... I expect that to come back down to around five or the mid-five. Yeah, but I don't think that just switches over to running, to rushing touchdowns. I think that the total amount of touchdowns that the Lions had this year, which was the number one in the league, that number will come down. So I don't expect it to just go, well, he's going to throw fewer, so they're going to rush for more. They're losing Ben Johnson as the offensive coordinator. They lost their secondary offensive coach as well. So do you think they...
Does the identity of the team change at all? Like, is Jared Goff thrown for 4,500 yards again? Or are we getting? I think they're going to try to run back how they have been playing the last few years. They did bring, their new offensive coordinator was with the Detroit Lions three years ago. So I think they're wanting to keep it intact. But yeah, it's really just a matter of how many opportunities is Jamir Gibbs going to get when David Montgomery is healthy. If you look at last year, you got 16.9 opportunities. I talked about that's how many points. Both numbers.
Both numbers are accurate. 16.9 opportunities per game with David Montgomery, 23.3 without him. A couple things there. You pointed out, or we talked about 19.2 was it, or 19.9 opportunities per game is the average for a top 15 running back. So obviously he's hyper efficient. It was also interesting talking about Bijan. They won eight games last year, just above that seven threshold that only 8% of running backs fit. Number four is Christian McCaffrey. You guys have him at four. I got him at five. I think that's a little bit higher than where people are putting him now, but I think later it will change if he is on the field at training camp and looks perfectly fine. What are the positives and negatives of CMC, Jason? I mean, the positives are he's the most valuable fantasy asset over the last decade when he is out on the field.
is two positions and one. He will fill as much in the receiving game as a good fantasy wide receiver and as much in the running game as a good fantasy running back. So it's just if he's healthy, he's the dude. He hasn't aged out. He's 28.8 years old. He's got some fresh legs at the moment. Honestly, when they're not tired. Yeah. When I be hurt. When I was. Going through my rankings, it was like, this is where I would take him. If those three guys are gone, I'm so excited for those three. I put Gibbs in the excitement for me. Then there's question marks for everyone. Christian McCaffrey is going to be the same conversation we had last year. Like if he's on the field, he's great. He's worthy of being the number one running back. They still have a lot of money invested in him. This is a team that odds to go to the Super Bowl is still really surprisingly high.
I don't see it that way, but this is a team whose expectations is to be good. Well, the team that has higher odds to make the Super Bowl that I don't want to make the same mistake on is who I have ranked higher than him, and he's our next name on the list, Derek Henry. Derek Kennedy was the running back two last year, insanely consistent, 347 opportunities, 325 carries. I feel like that is the layup that people didn't want to take last year. The way that we, that some people messed up, the Saquan and the, in the Derek Henry moving team situation and didn't trust the player, didn't trust the Super Bowl winning, you know, structure around them. I'm not making that mistake again here. I feel really good about Derek Henry. So I have them a spot higher and I just feel like it's not as sexy of a pick, but it's the right pick. Yeah. I mean, right now looking at Sleeper ADP, Derek Henry is.
fourth running back take it. So he's where you've got him. Christian McCaffrey is actually the eighth. People are really scared. I don't blame anyone for being scared. And I don't blame anyone for just saying I'm out. Like I don't want to hold the bag again, especially if you had the experience last year. I have, as of this moment, my decision is I'm in. I want to play for the win. And if he, you know, he's done this before where he's been injured and lost a season. And then it just comes back and is awesome. Derek Henry and wins, 22 fantasy points a game and losses, 12.8. That has been the story of his career where he's 19.2 in every win and 9.8 in losses. Baltimore is currently tied with the second highest odds of making the Super Bowl just behind Philly, tied with the Chiefs and Buffalo. Henry is, they're just going to re-roll this one more year in Baltimore.
And like I said, he scored the first touchdown more than anybody in football. He does feel like the easy layup who you don't see him as the running back one. Yeah, that's the issue. You don't see him as this game script proof, you know. Correct. Bejon versus Derek Henry. You're much more excited and comfortable to have Bejon. But man, Derek Henry, I don't know how it goes wrong. Right. And so that's why he's in the category to me with Bijan and with Sequin. Now, Al chimed in real quick in our chat, so I'm going to go to him. You said, quote, there is no way I would draft CMC with an early pick this year. Correct. Can you tell me why? Because I think this is important. It might be indicative of why his sleeper ADP is where it's at, but why wouldn't you take it? Just injury risk. I'm not playing that game again. I've been burned too many times.
The loss of McAvary is the worst possible feeling you can have. Yeah, lighting, you're 101 on fire. Speaking of lighting, the lighting inducers alley is obviously not good because if it was better, you could see how yellow. How yellow you are, Jeremy. Brock Bowers. Yeah. You chicken. You can say I told you so at the end of the same. Howard, okay. What's interesting about Derek, specifically Derek Henry and Chris McCaffrey is if you said Derek Henry is the RB1 at the end of 25. I would be very surprised to go to number one. Like top five, easy. Top three? Yeah, I get it. But number one where just that would surprise me. If you say Christian McCaffrey's the number one running back in the year, I will have no surprise from that. But then on the inverse is if you tell me that Christian McCaffrey screwed everybody again because an injury was not fully reported, I go, oh, yeah, that makes sense.
So it's this weird all, it feels like an all or nothing. Well, I think what happens, let me ask you this, because I know we've got to get through 15 names. But I want to stay here with the McCaffrey question of, I think they'll draft somebody that you like at running back right now in the college game. Yeah. I think they're going to do that. I do too. And I think that it's in their interest at McCaffrey's age coming off of multiple. little issues, right? We came into the draft last year and everyone literally said, we're not worried about the camp injury. We'll just do it because we don't want to be caught without McCaffrey on our team as the number one overall back. And it burnt us. If they draft that other player, it's in their interest to not use McCaffrey to the same volume as they did in the past. Maybe, yeah. And perhaps they will do that, but they've always had competent backups. It hasn't been.
And they still chose to utilize Christian McCaffrey how they have. And that might have cost them a season of Christian McCaffrey. It could have. But also, if they draft a running back, we'll see where they draft them. You know, if it's day one or day two, great. If it's day three, that's going to be, you know, less worrisome. But I think it's more about their future. If they draft a running back, then it is about giving Christian McCaffrey less work. I mean, what a crazy five-year stretch for McCaffrey? Because just to, I mean, it's. Three games played. Then it's seven games played. Then 17, 16, and now four games played. Yeah. Honestly, it should be a seven-year stretch because he was, if you go back after his rookie season, he's the running back. Three, the running back one. Injured the next year, injured the next year. Then he's back healthy. The running back two, the running back one injured the next year. And that was last year. So it's like if he plays, he's great. Yeah. Where I'm on with the drafting of a backup is I don't think they'll spend a day two.
on it it the situation is strange of you had you had jordan mason who at the at least at the beginning of the year was like this is a a very competent player for you like you know in that run i think he was leading talking about jordan mason was leading the league in rushing yards you know he was he didn't turn into that the past catching didn't get there like you had hoped or the team had hoped but they had him for they could have had him very cheap And then instead they took that, you know, a late pick. I don't remember what the pick was from Minnesota. But it was like, well, why not just keep Jordan Mason if you're in that if they're going to draft someone, I mean, that would say they're concerned about Garendo, who they took in the third round, who was like, he at least flashed on the field. I don't know if they, they look at what he'd put on the field and say, that's good running back play. Because we like exciting plays, but sometimes that's not what a coach is looking for. At six is Devon A. Chan.
Some variety in our rankings here. I'm at six. Jason at nine. Mike, you're at six with me. Nervous here. The fun fact I looked up on A-chan, no one in the NFL targeted more on early downs than Devon A-chan. Seventy targets ahead of Camara, Bijon, Breece. So 70 targets, early downs, weird offense, everything changed for Miami. Passing game, it's elite for Devon A-chan, but. Is two healthy? Yeah. How many games? I mean, I think the way they're running this offense is 17. I mean, the way they're running this offense, Tua will stay upright. Yeah, I mean, that's one of the reasons I've got him lower is just because you've got the variability of health issues here. Devon A-chan himself has dealt with injuries. You know, his rookie season, he was injured a lot. But there's the Tua factor. Like if Tua goes down, you had six games without Tua and you had a player.
who with Tua had 19.5 fantasy points per game without Tua was 7.7. You stack the box, you don't worry. That doesn't work for Tava H.N. The targets went from six and a half targets per game to 2.2 without Tua. You don't have confidence in Zach Wilson back there? I don't. That would be one of the things that they were so inept at quarterback after A. Chan, or I'm sorry, after Tua got hurt. A. Chan's going to be one of those, let's see what that happens at the draft. Yep. I had people coming out after we talked about Jalen Wright being a swing and a miss, very upset that we didn't give them more time to develop. They won't remember who that is at the end of this year. So at number seven, we have Kyron Williams. I've got him at 10. I didn't know this was.
Didn't know you hated him. Controversial. I didn't hate him because Sleeper has him at RB12. Yeah, I know. I know. It's funny. The world hates him. Let me tell you the reason why. Oh, God, is he returning punts again? No, no, no, but I deserve that. Here's the reason why J.K. Dobbins averaged more receiving yards per game than Kyran. I read that, and I had to go make sure I wasn't reading a lie. He averaged 11 receiving yards a game. That's a third worst of 34 qualified running backs. But. He's a red zone monster. He was the number one in touches inside the red zone. 4.7. All running backs considered he got more touches per game inside the red zone than anybody else. But I'm just pointing out when players don't catch the football, which Karin doesn't. That's almost nothing, right? 11.4 per game. You're at the bottom of the list. You're below J.K. Dobbins, who we know doesn't catch the football. Remind to remind of the average of a top 15.
they're averaging 47 catches. Right, right. So, I mean, it's just he's not, he's a red zone monster, but his efficiency in the receiving game stuff hasn't been. It wasn't there this past season, I would agree. The year prior, he only played 12 games. So the numbers, while they're seemingly about the same both years, on a per game basis, they were much better. He was on pace for 45 receptions, 300 receiving yards. That's fine. to add in. So we know he's got the ability to do it. Obviously that it's kind of like Sequin, right? Sequin didn't catch the ball much last year. Wasn't involved in the passing game and it worked for him. Seekuan clearly is a great pass catching running back. It's kind of how I feel about Kiron Williams. I don't worry that he can't be utilized when needed in that capacity. He's not game scripted out. I don't feel like they're bringing someone else in to be like, hey, if we've got to throw this ball a lot.
Kyron, you're off the field. Well, we should be honest about how they've decided to run the offense because you have an entire year of it. There are multiple games he played an entire game and got no targets. Sure. How did he do it for fantasy football in those games? Well, he had a good year. I'm not discounting his year at all. We're talking receiving work. I'm just not leaning on two years ago to tell me it's prescriptive for him getting more work when you got 17 games this year where you didn't get that kind of work. He is, like, this is for one of these players that's like,
That's how it can go wrong. Like for Kyran, you know, he is more susceptible to you just shave off three touchdowns here. And you're outside the top ten. Yeah, and now you're, you're not, it's not terrible. I mean, especially where he's going at his ADP, but it would be terrible for our current projection. 44th in explosive run rate. So just 1.9% of carries. 45th in fumbles, 34th in yards per carry. So, yeah, if you don't have backstop is all I mean with Congress. He's been amazing. We need a contract to come through. There's no, there's no compensation for a lack of touchdowns if it were to happen. Yeah, that's what I was, I was looking this morning just for any update on the contract information. He's wanting around 14, 15 mil a year. He's not going to get that. So the nice thing is it's Drew Rosenhouse. So he will get paid. Might be short a turn deal though.
Sure, I don't care. Just pay the man and give him a bunch of opportunities. And I still like Blake Corum, so you don't know how that involvement will change, but he's, I mean, he's ranked seven for a reason. He finished at six last year. He deserves it. ADP 12 in the fourth round. So currently I'm in. We'll take a break. We got more names. At number eight in our early running back rankings, we've got Bucky Irving. I hate this. You do. We are, we're, I feel like we're giving him. proper respect like I honestly do and you hate that and I hate that ADP this is sleeper ADP is two spots ahead of where we have him he was feels like feels like we don't like him yeah it feels like that and then it's gonna like he's we're gonna create this margin of error for Bucky Irving that's impossible to hit he's 22 years old stability on the offense is there his explosiveness is outrageous
He averaged 2.7 yards after contact per carry. Remember, Sequin was number one in yards before contact. Bucky was number one out of 44 running backs in yards after contact per carry. You've got margin and room for the offensive line to make improvements. Big plays. From week 10 on, he was the RB 7. That might speak to your point, Mike, about he doesn't have a lot of room for error here. Right. But could Bucking Irving finish as the RB 2 or 3? I think he could. I do think that's in the range of outcomes for Bucky Irving. I think he could be that good. I think he is talented enough. I don't think that's in his range of realistic outcomes because you got Rashad Dick White there. He's not going away. That's kind of hard. That's on you, dude. You made his name. I don't think I ever said it quite like that. No, no, you didn't. I never said it as a sentence, like with Dick in the middle. Yeah.
And you've also got Sean Tucker who they like and they utilize. So Bucky is the primary back here. They love Bucky Irving. I think he's going to get the majority. And they've come out and said like that's all of that. He's going to get the majority of the work. But he's not going to get all of the work. He's not built for that. And they have two other quality backs on the roster right now. So I love Bucky, but he doesn't. You know, I just don't know if the workload is guaranteed there the way it is for some of the players around him. I think it's pretty guaranteed. I think he's got 275 on the ground. You think he's got 275 carries on the ground? I think I would bet you that he will have 275 carries Sands injury. I think I would take that bet. Yeah. Well, we can do it. All right. Let's do it. Water bet. Just for some.
Additional context here, soon after the bye week. So they were talking weeks 12 through 18 that seven games played. He would have been on a pace of 270 attempts. But that also includes week 14, where he carried the ball four times. But that's because, was it the week before that? Was that the mummy game? It might have been. I don't remember. Week 13, how many carries? 25. Yeah, he was. He was. used and abused in that game. I remember he was so good. And mind you, in those games, 12, 11, 17, and 15, those are carry counts for Rashad White in some of those games. Yeah, let's stop doing that. I think it's going to work out really well for Bucky Irving. I do too, but I don't like that ADP. I know we want to pull back, but the reason it's there is because there aren't to me a lot of names that I know are going to bring me a guarantee. And I think Bucky's in that category.
His talent is unquestionable from what he put on film last year. You can't even question it. No. Try. See? I just tried and I wouldn't let me. Jonathan Taylor at number nine. Jason's the highest with him at seven. I'm at nine. Mike at 10. He's at nine and ADP. We know how talented he is. He's only 26 years old still. He had a great monster-sized end of the year. I mean, we're talking 29 carries, 32 carries, 34 carries. They basically said, we got nothing else we can do. And he was so good. He was so good. You realize his last five games, he would have been on a season-long pace of 2,458 rushing yards? Yeah, yeah, that's a, you've got questions at quarterback, right? You don't know if his Jones or Richardson, neither sound great. Daniel Jones was not a boon for Sequin in New York.
You've got some weird outlier stat numbers here among 46 qualified running backs with 100 plus carries. 42nd out of 46 enforced mistackle rate, 44th in yards after contact per attempt. And then he was actually stuffed the most of any running back in football in third and short, including more than Ramandre. And he fumbled four times, which is a bit of an issue. He's also become less relevant as a pass catcher as the years have gone by the last two years. It's gone down. So those would be the warts. Anthony Richardson gets scary from a passing volume to from a target volume and from a winning games perspective. Sure. From an accurate target perspective. I think the thing you love about Jonathan Taylor is that he in and of himself is obviously super talented. He's been the running back one for fantasy in the past. And he projects to get.
The vast majority of the work in the backfield. So that's why, like, I've got him ahead of Bucky. I would rather have the big body back who's going to get all of his team's carries than a maybe just as talented back in Bucky Irving, who's 195 pounds and has two other capable backs on the roster. You said backs a lot. That was three. You got a triple back. Josh Jacob. He caught 58% of his targets. You catching Anthony Richardson. I dare you. I dare you do. I'm not putting this on Jonathan Taylor, who as a rookie caught 36 of 39 targets. I'm saying, geez, Louise, man. It's like the easiest throw on the football field. He's right there. We got to get Anthony Richardson. He's right in front of you. Learned how to do the underhand throw. You know what I mean? Like, oh, like the Rick Berry or the NFL? Exactly. Just a granny throw. Just just, just.
Just toss it to him. Toss it forward. No quarterback has ever switched to a Rick Berry style throw. Yet. Yet. Hey, if you want to save your career, it's the underhand. Granny style. Float it. Yeah, yeah. All right. Josh Jacobs. Jason and I have him at eight. Mike wanted to take a dump on and put him at 13. That's right. Hate. He broke the second most tackles in the NFL, which was. two short of Derek Henry. And those two guys were in a completely other tier, almost 15 more than James Connor, who is in third place. So he arrived in Green Bay and delivered everything a running back should deliver. So everything that they signed him for, everything that you hoped you were getting if you were Green Bay, 14 rushing touchdowns inside the 10, workhorse.
He was the real consistency on the offense. The wide receivers, they couldn't figure themselves out for fantasy. You couldn't trust Jordan Love last year. You didn't even, I mean, you got a little whiff of tight-in performance for fantasy in Green Bay, but it was Jacobs. Yeah. Now, are you concerned about the every other year history of Josh Jacobs? He's a real red light, green light situation. If his green. If his red lights are RB 14 or 18, it's not the end of the world for a guy. At RB7? I mean, it's not good. That's not great. It's not good. Do you know how many running backs the Packers have brought in for top 30 visits? Mike, do you know you've been on this? I would love to know. Off the top of my head, I don't. It is zero. Yeah. You've got other problems on that team. Go fix those. Also, those green light red light performances, he had a couple years there that were 13 games out of 17 games played.
or 15 out of 17. So his fantasy finish, maybe a little bit deceptive there. Always a shortened season is what I'm saying for his bad performances. We know what you're getting with Josh Jacobs. You want two of the least sexy picks. Just take Henry and Jacobs and win your league. Yeah, no, I think that those will be good. Henry is being drafted that way, though. Yeah. Well, Jacobs is at RB7. You won't get both. All right. Chase. reasoning for being lower. Once the stats are in, I'm guessing Josh Jacobs won't be as low as 13 for me. But it's a regression of touchdowns. Of touchdowns. And not just because it's like, oh, he scored so many of them. It was the Green Bay Packers went from 24% of their touchdowns in 2023 to 45% of their touchdowns came on the ground. Like this was a huge swing. This had like we've seen.
how this coaching staff has handled it before, and they tend to be on the higher side of passing touchdowns. So I'm just, I'm going to, I'd be on the side betting that that will regress. That doesn't mean Jacobs is a bad pick, but I think that it'll be, it'll swing back to more passing touchdowns than, than what we had last year. 11 is Chase Brown. We talked about him at the beginning. It will change dramatically if the Bengals take a running back. It's not a guarantee that they will. He was the RB 5 from week 9 on. You have an offense. You have a tremendous amount of confidence in. They're going to score so many points. So many points. And Chase Brown is very good. He's very versatile. He can catch the football. He can be a target for Joe Burrow. We're just on rookie watch right now, I think. I think he played enough games for us all to say, hey, that's a good player. Yeah. If they don't draft a rookie, he will be very, very high. Will he move up in your rankings, you think?
Um, he might. Right now I've got him an 11. I mean, that's, that's an RB1. Perhaps when we stat him out post the NFL draft, he'll be higher. But as of now, that's probably where I really only see him his ability to fall. Like if they draft a rookie, he could tumble. I feel like some of the outlook on Chase Brown might be similar to how we were with Kyron Williams after he kind of broke out. Sure. Where it was like, okay, do we have that confidence going into year two? It's very similar because Chase Brown's a day three guy, just like Kyron Williams was where you're like, that's how he feels. Is he going to hold on to that starter spot? I think the difference is Kyron Williams college tape. Like.
I remember we loved Kyron Williams. Yes, we did. He was unbelievable in college and then he just tumbled in the draft and then had a back seat. I don't remember ever feeling like Chase Brown was some amazing prospect that just was a big. No, but I mean on the field last year he was amazing. Yeah, yeah, he was. I think what happened with Kyron is the draft capital made us doubt him going into year two that the team would be committed. Now Kyle gave us this number if a team used as two plus top 30 visits on running backs. which the Bengals have done. 71% of the time over the last decade, they take a running back in the first four rounds. So if you want to get out in Dynasty on Chase Brown on that number, this is your moment. I would definitely be, if I had Chase Brown, I would be shopping around to see if I could get a big trade for him. Because if you can maximize on his current perceived workhorse value, you might not be able to in every league. But if you can, great. Because even if he's great, whatever, your trade compensation would be great.