Dynasty Trade Targets + Overvalued Players - Fantasy Football Podcast for 5/16

You are not coming into the season as the guaranteed number one. And then you are entering a contract year and you have a rookie quarterback. And you have to ask yourself in Dynasty, what's next for Giovante Williams? Because I don't think that there's almost any future where what's next for Giovante Williams is the Broncos are giving you a bunch of money to be their future at the position when you literally are the only incumbent, not selected by the current head coach, the amount of. overperformance compared to expectation to me that that would require, which is not outside the possibility or the range of possibilities, but it's low odds. Like you got to go from being objectively bad to objectively great this season, not bad to decent, not bad to committee, bad to great for the Broncos to hand you a check to be the guy next season, which means.

Who's handing you a check to be the guy next year after you have a multi-ligament injury? Giovante still has that name where, you know, it's not all lit up in lights in Dynasty anymore, certainly. But like some of the bulbs are still on for trading purposes. Like you can still make a case. You go to these, you know, you go to the trade table with he's 24 years old. He was hurt last year. This guy's got a big future ahead of him. And I don't think that's true. But that's the story that you can paint. And so I'm very concerned about what Giovante's role on a future roster can be. That's my biggest concern. Whereas I could see Kendrae Miller being the guy in New Orleans next year. Yeah, for sure. But I don't know if I see Giovante as the guy in Denver next year. Well, obviously, Kendra is only one year into his career, into his rookie contract.

When it comes, so I am more bullish on Giovante Williams' possibilities of being back to full strength this year than I think both of you gentlemen, certainly more than Andy. I see that as a at least 50-50 outcome. Well, that's what I want to get to. And it serves your point here. If he gets back to full strength and has a great season, he probably still doesn't get the bag from the Broncos. Because for the Broncos to really say, Wow, he's got to be not just the centerpiece of the offense, which I think could happen, but he's got to be the centerpiece of the offense while they win a surprising amount of games. And with a rookie quarterback, that's probably not going to happen. You're not going to give a big, sizable, long-term contract, second contract to a running back on a losing franchise. That's just probably not going to happen for the Broncos. So from a dynasty perspective, I do agree that if you can capitalize on Giovante now,

The odds that, you know, you're playing the likely outcome market. And the likely outcome is that he changes teams somewhere to become a committee back or a backup for his next season after 2024. And there's no guarantee that this one is great anyways. Now, that's still greater sign to me than Kendra Miller. But Kendra Miller plus, you know, plus something, sure. And. And. Going back to the dynasty articles we have in the UDK Plus, Marv wrote this since 2010, 78% of the running backs peak seasons occur before turning 24. So not only are you coming back from injury, contract year, not a lot of running backs getting paid big money. I just think it's a tall task, and that's why I put Giovante into that tradeaway category. Mike, I'll turn it over to you because your name is, I think it's interesting.

I think he was in the headlines a lot last year towards the end of the year. And so it may be interesting. It's tradeaway Amari Cooper of the Cleveland Browns. And Amari Cooper, the greatest thing that he has. How is the greatest thing? The second greatest thing he did for you last year was give you a temporary boost to his dynasty value. The first greatest thing, of course, being help you actually win a championship because. It was so awesome. He was a playoff hero. It was so awesome. And it was so much fun. But here's the thing about Amari Cooper. Wasn't that the week? We almost didn't play him? Maybe that was the next week. Yeah, it was. Yeah, okay, never mind. We didn't know if he was. He got banged up in that game. And then he went out, but then Joe Flack. It was still great. And it was just the Cleveland Browns of the playoffs. It was really, really fun last year. Or fancy playoffs. But Amari Cooper, he's entering year 10. He's about to turn 30.

and he's under the final year of his contract. And I think that Amari Cooper has value. Like this year, you'll be able to start Amari Cooper as like a wide receiver two type of a player. But the fear is that you are now on the edge of his value really going in the tank. Yeah, sure. Come at me with Mike Evans. I get it. Mike Evans is still cooking and he is over the age of 30. But there are so many superstar players. who have seen their dynasty value just plummet from age from 30 to 31. And that's why I'm saying I'm trading Amari Cooper now trying to be one year early. Julio Jones. Julio Jones was a superstar. And then he was the pixie dust ran off. And he went in essentially had no value. A.J. Green. Hopkins. Devonta.

Devante Adams, if you had traded, think where Devante Adams trade value was last year, much higher. We just recorded our, our UDK outlook for Devante Adams. And all three of us. Yeah, we compared him to Hopkins now. We're all like, I mean, he'll have gains, but the point of the value disintegrated, Stefan Diggs, if you had traded him beginning of last year, you could have got a ton. Now? His market value has plummeted. And that's just the overall dynasty value. And then remember, before the bonanza of that playoff run for Amari Cooper, before week 16, which week 16 was 24% of his fantasy points of the year. It was so cool. It was awesome. But before that point, he was the wide receiver 27. That's not how we think about Amari Cooper because he finished.

So strong. That's your memory of him. But up until that point, it was just okay-ish because Deshaun Watson has been awful. He has been absolutely putrid. And he is, like it or not, he is still the future for the Cleveland Browns at the quarterback position. And now we have multiple years of him being terrible, possibly dragging Amari Cooper's value down even more. So I'm saying, yes, Amari Cooper can help your team this year. But I'm trying to get out. right now while I can get, I can get a player, I can help bolster some stuff for this year and the future of my dynasty team. And before what I see is Amari Cooper's value just really going in the tank. Well, I'm looking forward to hearing Jason's tradeaway candidate, but you're going to have to wait just a second. We'll be right back. And that was Jason's tradeaway candidate. I hope you really enjoyed that. I hope you liked it. I hope you get a haul. I hope you get a haul for him. Yeah, what a good name. You know, a lot of times people are always looking for that real.

clear and obvious pick and I'm glad you got it. Yeah, yeah, that'll do it. But who else do you got? We wrap it up the show? Oh, who else? Yeah. Okay, I'll give you one more. One more. One more. Now that you've heard my best trade away candidate. He's going to do one more. Here's an okay tradeaway candidate. A bunch of people rewinding into the ads. The tradeaway candidate for me right now is Najee Harris, a guy that I have always been a decent fan of not, uh, BFF. Not a BFF, but it's just one of those. Noggi the man is awesome. Oh, Noggi the man is incredible. But I'm talking about Noggi the running back as far as the fantasy asset. He has not been a prolific top tier guy. But the back half of the last two seasons have actually been really good. He's been solid. He's been a baby Yetty. Yeah, as a baby Yetty, you know, as the cold weather comes in, people don't want to tackle him as much or whatever. He was a running back 21 last year, running back 14, two years ago. And then obviously his rookie season was great.

Keep on the wrong direction. Well, that's the point. He keeps going the wrong direction. His snaps went from 84% as a rookie down to 66 and last year down to 53% of the snaps, which for a Mike Tomlin team is not very normal. His opportunities have gone from 23.6 to 19.1 to 17.3. And the most important thing at the end of the day is your fantasy points per game. 15 and a half is rookie season. to 11.9 in this last year, 10.6. So we could see that it's trending downward. But he is still a valuable commodity in Dynasty leagues as a rookie contract running back who is never finished outside of an RB2. And there are so many teams desperate for running backs. But they didn't pick up his fifth year option. And that's a huge deal to me. That means that he's going to be a free agent at the end of this year. He's not a franchise tag worthy guy.

And we've seen in the past that the Steelers aren't going to pay for the running back. So they're going to let him hit the open market. And I don't know that he's going to get a big bag or a big enough job to be inefficient and effective for fantasy. So this is similar to like, this is a very similar case to Amari Cooper. Because I agree, Amari Cooper is going to help your team this year. But eventually you've got to get out while there's value left. And there's very little meat on the bone left for Najee Harris. but you could still get something valuable for him. I don't think it would surprise anyone here if at the end of this year, Jalen Warren scores more fantasy points than Najee for the same team. But Najee has value right now as someone that is, you know, in his three-year career, never finished outside the top 21 running backs. You can get something for him. I think this season it's more mediocrity and then you might be out of an asset. Would you accept a second round pick?

No, I think you can get more than a second round pick. It's one of those weird players where you're probably not getting the first and you're probably not accepting a second. So you've got to find a kind of a player pick combination. I'd like to find... And there's no picks between those rounds? There's no picks between those rounds. Like a hidden round? Right. And obviously some of this... Like the 13th floor or whatever that is? Some of this goes back to the quick question on the day, right? Like what is your team? If you're a competing team, Naji can help you. If you're a rebuilding team, you can't.

So you've got to take a look at your roster and say, okay, if I'm competing, then I need something really good for him. You're not going to trade Najee for, you know, my trade for Kendra Miller in a second if you're a competing team. That's not going to help you as much. But if you're rebuilding and you can get a young Kendrae Miller who could be the dude next year plus a second and he's not going to help you win a championship this year, okay, I would be willing to do that. Mike, do you have any thoughts on Najee? I think I'm in most mostly agreement here. The reasoning for not picking up the fifth year option, at least maybe it's just PR, but it did make sense to me. And I think Warren is in here. Warren's in a contract year, too? Double check that for me. Maybe he's a year away. Yeah. It was that when they were talking about Najee, like they have a whole new offensive system coming in here. I mean, you got art, you have.

Arthur Smith is now the OC and they want to see how the running backs fit which I mean maybe you're just being nice and saying we don't want to give Najee Harris any money we want him off the team soon but I think there could be some legitimate truth to that of if it works out and Najee succeeds in Arthur Smith's system that he would get he'd get a smaller extension so I do I don't think Najee Harris is a complete I got to get rid of him type of a player. Because I think there is a world where he resigns with Pittsburgh. He doesn't get a huge deal. But if he resigns with Pittsburgh, you know that he's going to be getting a whole bunch of carries. He's had 1,000 rushing yards all three years. That might be a surprising statistic to people. If Naji Harris had been a third round draft pick, he would be a success story. Correct. But it was a first round draft. That's all it is. That's the actual.

The whole story with Najee Harris, he would be, you know, found money in the third, fourth, fifth round of the NFL draft, and you'd be so impressed with the consistency and just plotting his way to success. But because he was the number, he was a first round draft pick and the expectations coming out, you're disappointed because you wanted somebody to, you know, and being RB for the rookie year. You combine that with the fact that the Steelers did get found money in undrafted free agent. You know, Jalen Warren. So Jalen Warren, because he was undrafted, is only a three-year deal. But because he was undrafted means that he's an RFA at the end of this year, which basically means he's a stealer. Like, RFAs are in prison. That's the...

I don't know how. No, restricted means he can go get an offer for them. Right. What am I? You're thinking of an ERFA. Oh, yes. An RFA, if he gets an offer, they have a right to match. Yes. So if, and the reality is, if he gets an offer, he's going to mess. So Warren is in the contract. Both of these guys are in the contract here. And they're trying to, they're going to wait it out and see who fits better. Sure. Sure. I think it's high, much high, much higher odds that Warren would be back as an RFA. But we'll see.

All right, let's jump into some dynasty mailbag. Mailbag. All right. Honestly, that was great. Spectacular. He held it for a while. I can go longer. No, thanks. Farron writes in. Stamina. Do you think Rahim Boster. Yeah, the guys that got it, they say it. Do you think Rahim Moster has any dynasty trade value or just ride the wave? I think he has no dynasty trade. I think you got to ride that wave, my friend. I'm hoping just to, I mean, I went into last year thinking maybe I don't even want him on my roster. Uh-huh. And he became the RB2. Everything else after that is gravy. Yep. And you have him on your roster. Yep. This is not a Derek Henry situation. You're not getting a first for him. You're probably not even getting a second for him from a contender. Derek Henry's still going top of redraft leagues. Rahim Most are in redraft right now.

is despite being the running back too, he's like, I think he might even be outside the top 24. And I'm talking redraft. Running backs take it. So yeah, you're not getting anything for most. You're going to get fantasy points from him. 49% of his fantasy points last year came from touchdowns. That is the highest of any top 12 quarterback over six years. Running back. See? IG question trademark Andrews for Dalton Kincaid question mark. I have Alan for the stack. So I said this earlier. I did think about making Mark Andrews my tradeaway candidate on today's show. But I didn't do that because I don't believe it. I just, it's been a little bumpy for Andrews, but when he's on the field, he's been just as effective. And he's 29. And so, you know, I don't know if he's going to be.

Jason Whitten and play well until he's 38. But what if you give them 29 to 34? Is that Mark Andrews going to be more valuable than Dalton Kincaid's career? That's a tough question. I would probably do the trade because Andrews has dealt with injuries. And, you know, I think that they have more weapons than Mark Andrews now. And they didn't used to. But it's right on the fence for me. Yeah, it is, it is close. I think it's a fair deal. I have Mark Andrews ahead of Dalton. in my startup rankings, meaning I would not make this trade. You've still got him under contract for two more years. So does Mike right now? A ton of dead cap. So he's going to be a Raven for a while. He's the clear number one target. We hope Dalton Kikade becomes the clear number one target. It just hasn't happened yet. I've got it statted that way. But even then, I don't have him statted as the number one target to be as valuable as Mark Andrews, assuming Mark Andrews is on the field. Injury risks, they suck.

They've hit Mark Andrews a lot over the last couple of years. But I don't know that that's very predictable. So I've still got Mark Andrews ahead of Don Kincaid. At the very least, though, if you want to make the trade and you want to make the argument the other direction, is that if they're both close to each other, you're getting more youth. I have Kincaid it too. Yeah, then that's an easy trade. That doesn't bother me at all. Yeah. Mark Andrews has proven his, the touchdown connection with Lamar. So even if, you know, his role ends up shrinking at some point of his career, once they get in the red zone, Mark Andrews will be on the field. And Don't Kincaid could grow into that. That might happen. He had a whole bunch of targets and a good amount of yards for a rookie tight end, but he had two touchdowns. Ethan writes in is T. Higgins a top 15 wide receiver in Dynasty right now. T. Higgins is just, it's the worst, man.

Trying to figure out what T. Higgins is. T. Higgins is a fine wide receiver. Yes. That's exactly. I think he's a good one. I think he is very good. I think he's okay. So we got very good, good and fine. Yeah, he's fine. I mean, he, he, look, he put he's put up a thousand yards a couple times, but literally almost on the dot. 900, a thousand, a thousand. He's dealt with injuries. The reason that I don't have him as a, as a top 15 dynasty wide receiver. is because even though he's young, this is a one and done situation with the Bengals. He's going to play this year. I think he'll be good. When you hit the open market at wide receiver, you're going to get a bag of money. You're going to have someone break the bank for you. And that is nice, but you also see a lot of times these high dollar shifting free agent wide receivers. They don't always work out.

You don't know if he's going to go to a good quarterback or a bad quarterback next year. You do know he's going to, if he's not on the Bengals, you know, he's leaving a good quarterback. You know, so what if he goes and signs a big contract with the Giants to be opposite Malik neighbors and you don't know the quarterback situation? It's like there's a lot of risk there from a dynasty perspective after this season. He's played four years and if you give him the best number at every one of these spots, his best would be 74 for 1,091 and 7. So.

It's hard to make up a top 15 dynasty guy when he's never finished top 15. That's all I'm saying. I think he's a good receiver. But I don't think he's a, I don't think you could go and sign him if you're Carolina. And if you had traded for him this off season. And like, what if he went to Carolina? What's his season? I bet it's about 74 for 1091 and 7. Yeah. I don't know if there's a place he could go and be, do you think he can be the one? I guess we've talked about that so many times. Yeah. I think he could be a one. I think it could be a one, but it's.

T. Higgins just lives in this world of what he could and should be, and then that against what you're actually getting. So top 15, no. I don't have Michael Pittman in my top 15 wide receivers, and they're close enough comps to me, and one of them is already the dude for his team with a massive extension. So, yeah. All right. Celebrate Dynasty Week with us by going to Footland Giveaway.com. You can win a signed Devon A. Chan jersey. And we're giving that away after this week. So go over there. It's free to enter. And there's also a new Dynasty podcast out. You can go check that out. Rookie Range of Outcomes episode. The Dynasty podcast every week with Kyle Borgononi, Matthew Betts, and generally Jason or Mike joining them. And so I think that's it. I think we're done.

Ultimate DraftKit.com. Go check that out. And we will be back with new episodes next week, including a Mike versus Andy mock draft. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on join thefoot.com. And follow us on Twitter at the FFBallers.