Fantasy Football - Fantasy Scavengers + Upside Players, Who Am I? - Podcast for 5/29

So I'm a big fan. All right, we got another voicemail. Hey, football. I'm John from Chicago. Keeper question. Would you rather keep JJ McCarthy with a 16th round pick? Or is it that much more valuable to keep Jaden Daniels with a sixth round pick? You'll find it is a two quarterback league. Thanks on the show. It's a two QB league and it's Jaden Daniels. Yeah, don't overthink this one. One percent Jaden Daniels. J.J. McCarthy, we're all believers here in the talent. I think he's going to do great things for the Vikings. I believe he could surprise and be an excellent top tier pocket passer this year that's adding 200 yards on the ground, maybe, but he's coming off of a knee injury.

The gap in fantasy points that JJ McCarthy will score and Jaden Daniels because of how he plays is not overcomable from what you're giving up in the sixth round. What round would I have if Jaden, it was trading Jaden for a one? Would you take J.J.J. in the 16th? I don't think so. In a two-quarterback lead, I think I probably would do that. I feel like in a two-quarterback lead, Jaden Daniels is worth. Oh, no, he'd be a top five pick. Yeah. Yeah, you're right. You're close there, man. which we do have a follow-up Jane Daniels-related question, a sophomore slump question, which we saw with C.J. Stroud had a Stroud slump last year. But CM writes in over on X, any concern for Jane Daniels in year two of the Kingsbury system, not many added weapons and the league adjustments that happened in Arizona. Just have me curious if this might repeat. Arizona was, it wasn't a great ride with Cliff Kingsbury in the offense. There were times when we were.

pulling our hair out out here in Arizona with the running up the middle approach and the lack of innovative play calling. It worked really well last year with Jaden Daniels. Now, what does a slump represent for Jaden Daniels? Two things. One, I think a sophomore slump absolutely can happen with J. Daniels. But the question of what that means, I don't think he can slump the way that C.J. Stroud slumped for fantasy purposes because of the rushing upside. If you're someone that can rush for 800 to 1,000 rushing yards, if you don't throw as many. you know, touchdowns, you throw more interceptions, you're still going to be a good fantasy asset. You might not be a great fantasy asset because now you're being drafted high and then you disappoint. So, okay, a little disappointing. There are also a few things stacked against him, namely the schedule. He had one of the easiest schedules last year in the league and now that the gap between what he had rookie season going to sophomore year is massive. However,

I don't have massive worries. The Cliff Kingsbury thing, Cliff, the Cliff and Kyler came together, right? Yeah, so the, as much crap as... I think Cliff and Jayden came together. No, I know, but I'm saying Kyler's best season was his sophomore year when he was the quarterback two. As much crap as we give Cliff for his performance in Arizona, it, like, the first three years was just nonstop improvements from five wins to eight to 11. You know, the passing yards ranked 24th to... to 17th to 10th. Like the passing offense for Arizona improved each of the first three years that Cliff Kingsbury was in charge. It was they got to a point where everything totally fell apart and it felt like, okay, no, the ceiling is there. Cliff can't get to the Super Bowl. So that's why they made the change. The thing about Jane Daniels that just from an intangible standpoint is, you know, the schedule doesn't intimidate me very much with Jade and Daniels.

He was the same player on the road that he was at home, fantasy-wise. He was the same player in losses as he was in wins, fantasy-wise. He actually, he throws for more yards in losses. He, you know, more attempts, more opportunities through the air. I just need him to turn up the speed on the VR. Oh, for the... Just make sure you're sharp. Yeah. I don't have any concerns. No, personally. And when you say they didn't add offensive weapons, I... I don't think Debo is the same as he was two or three years ago, but that's a pretty big addition, considering what you had as your wide receiver two, which was Jack Squat. And then I would also... I thought that was a person. Like Jack Squat. Yeah, Jack Squat is over lining up on the Y, and now it's going to be Debo Samuel. Frigin' Jack Squad, always... He lined up wrong on the play. Jack Squad, we got do nothing over here. This is a who's on first situation. Yeah, it really is. And also, do not forget the inevitable halfway...

pivot of Zachert's catch and fall down into Ben Senate, the senator, who will... You're saying for this year. Yes. He will do his Trey McBride going forward. And then... There's only one way to guarantee 10 touchdowns for Zach Hertz and Mike just did it. Yeah. And additionally, they added... Possible. They added Laramie Tunsell. That's a huge improvement for, you know, just the offense as a whole. YouTube question from Arthair 14. Do you... think taking jason in the third round is the is a good price to pay are we in on the offense and sam darnald man i'm gonna i'm gonna be vulnerable here oh yeah mike you have me scared about json like i i was bullish on jason i came into the year really this is a guy who you know in his second year he was you know quote drafted to be great

First round pick, first wide receiver off the board. In his second year, he was the wide receiver 10. Now you get rid of DK Metcalf, you get rid of Tyler Lockett. Like, JSN should be in the conversation to be a top five guy on volume. I think, I think Sam Darnold, like I was so hyped for JSN. And you made me feel the fool with your data. And I love a good data nugget. So why don't you explain what it is? that scared me. It just is a reminder of what the data study was was that guys who break out in year two, the market often overreacts. For fantasy. For fantasy purposes and their ADP gets juiced up to a point where it's historically has not been a good bet. And it's not every single player fails. It's just that the we move that your expectation from a year two breakout goes.

a bit high like this like jason into the third like it everything makes sense that it should work but while you're running through those things jays like there's yeah okay dk and tyler locket are gone it's a brand new quarterback it's a brand new offensive coordinator it's like a lot of stuff has changed for jason he's clearly the one he's a very talented wide receiver But, you know, like last year, just over 1,100 yards, a hair under 12 points per game, can he really, can he elevate that multiple points per game? I just, I'm not sure that that can happen. What would that mean to your fantasy team taking him in the third round? Let me go, who's going around there? Like, when you talk about having hesitancy, I mean, like, I think Jason will be solid this year. Yeah, it'll be very solid. It's just a matter of, like, depending on the pick, if you went, if you went.

top-in, tight-end or quarterback early or something of that nature. Jason's going to need to be your one. I think J.S.N. will end up being drafted even higher than the third round. The third round will be usually the old guys. It'll be the old great guys. It'll be the Tyree Kill. It'll be Mike Evans. It'll be Devonte Adams. Like those guys are an underdog right now. He's actually, he's going as the wide receiver 18. Wow. So behind, that is directly behind Rishie Rice, Terry McLaurin. Tyreek. That's really surprising because on Sleeper, I'm looking at Sleeper's ADP. So more of the home leagues. He is the wide receiver 12 in the second round. Yeah, I don't wide receiver 18. I'm in on that. Yeah, I mean, just to be clear, if you're new to fantasy football or new to the show, when we say ADP, because we reference it so much in the offseason, that just stands for average draft position. And that is a marker of where players are going and mock drafts throughout the off season on different platforms.

So we use that as a guide of like, you know, is this a value? Is this not a value? That's a pretty big disparity between those two platforms and what you expect from the player. So, you know, wide receiver 18 out the board. I'm very cozy with that. Yeah, I think that's okay. It's just like how well will Sam Darnold actually do? Like I think that the Darnold variable is gigantic. I think the question was posed, are you in on JSN with Sam Darnold? I don't know. what it's like to be in on Sam Darnold permanently, right? Yeah, I mean, like that's a tough commitment. Like I'm not last year we got there. Does his wife wear her ring all the time? But at the same time. Like does it like when she goes to the games? Like is it a full time commit? I mean, I just feel like that's a tough one with Donald. Darry, yeah, I mean, the question.

Did Donald level up or did Donald get put in an amazing system? And while JSN, I think is a great wide receiver, he is nowhere near what Justin Jefferson is to allow a quarterback to look better than he might. Well, it's like, you know, the most common go-to guys of earlier on in their career, when you're watching him, you're going, did you, did you know? in those first few years that DJ Moore was a great player. Watching Terry McLaurin going, is that a great player? And those guys were super capped in terms of it felt like they would be, you know, a perennial low-end wide receiver two forever, despite watching and going, that's a great player. Now, your evaluation might be JSN is clearly, I think he's a better prospect. No, it's a really good argument. So just look how you feel about those.

previous players and use that in your evaluation further debate to come here with this question instagram from el kramer joan jennings or ricky pierceau we have oh in our rankings in our rankings so far in the udk the disparity in where mike has joan jennings and i have joan jennings and then jason's right in the middle but it is like 20 spots and you know i'll give you my perspective on him i think joan jennings is um What is what is the type of animal that like eats the remains on a carcass when all the vulture? No, but there's another word for that scavenger scavenger. Yeah, Papa Josh. Papa Josh coming through biology degree over there. To me, Joanne Jennings is a fantasy scavenger. Okay. And so I have concerns because I think Ricky Pearsall takes a step forward. George Kittle is the primary target. Brandon and I will come back at some point this year and all the time Joan Jennings was eating last year.

And they were good meals, by the way. Yeah, they were. There was no Christian McCaffrey on the field. And so to me, Juan Jennings is a super, super solid, capable wide receiver. But I don't have the same ceiling case for him that Mike does. And so I would take the shot on Ricky Pearsall for how I build my team archetype-wise. I just want to, I want a shot at something that, you know. Is great, not good. Yeah, that even like, like if Ricky Pearsall was great, he could be. a better target than George Kittle. Yeah. He could be the one. Receiving target. And I just want that shot at it where I feel like Jennings, I'm getting floor and injury help, but... You're saying that like Jennings, I think, has a realistic outlook of scoring 11 fantasy points a game, and that's really good. For where he's going to drafts, that's fantastic. I don't think he has any shot of ending the season scoring 14 fantasy points per game in half PPR. But Ricky Pearsall, while he might...

project to score nine fantasy points a game be below John Jennings. He has a shot. He has a chance to go out there and be that dude and, you know, show that why he was a first round draft pick with his hands, his speed, all that stuff. And so I agree with Andy. I would rather have Pearsall on my roster than Jennings. But I am in between you guys statistically. I think Jennings is a value in drafts. He just doesn't have a ceiling. I will agree that the... like pierceau if it worked out that i think the ceiling would be higher but i i disagree that jennings doesn't have a ceiling like he was multiple games of 10 plus targets 10 or more like this guy was absolutely commanding volume in the beginning of the year when they had a actual healthy functional brain and i yuk like jennings was still commanding targets at that point so i i love jennings in draft and he's i think being

very overlooked. Well, the ceiling is not top 12. I think that he will easily be the number one wide receiver for San Francisco. All right. We'll take a break and jump into some more questions. All right. This question, it's a good one from Instagram. It is a concern that I have. Zach Robinson writes in, are there too many mouths to feed in Chicago? When you talk about fantasy players being drafted, DJ Moore, Roma Dunesay, DeAndre Swift. Colston Loveland, Flyers on Rocheon late in the draft. Cole Komet is going to be, I'm telling you, he will be a touchdown vulture. They just paid him a bunch of money. Scavenger. And he's not, you're right, sorry. And he's not, he's just a good player. And it's annoying. Luther Burton the third there, rookie wide receiver. So too many mouths to feed is really good for Caleb.

It's not necessarily good for identifying value and fantasy. Yeah, there are way too many mouths for everybody to be full. I think you can have two pass catching options, and it would seem the most likely outcome. You would just, like, he was a top 10 pick last year, and now he's the wide receiver too. It seems like Rome should be the second best option in terms of a pass catcher. But that's like for me, I don't know if that's locked in because of the surrounding talent. Kenan had 121 targets in this office last year, and I don't think anybody would expect burdened to approach that in the, at least in the wide receiver room. No, the question really is like this year's, you know, top 10 pick, number 10 overall, Colston Loveland, a pass catching tight end. My argument against Colson Loveland versus Tyler Warren has simply been.

in this offense, because of the mouths to feed, he can't be the number two target. I just don't see that as a realistic outcome with DJ Moore and Roma Dunesay on the roster. So he's going to be at best the third target, and that's if Luther Burden is not very involved, and they're, you know, split in that area of the field. Passing yardage, Caleb Williams, totals in your UDK projections right now. Okay, I will look it up. Do they, does he, does he get to the first 4,000 yard season ever? I'll tell you where I have him after. after you tell me i have him doing it and doing it well really i'm at 4300 i got him a 4200 i do not i have him at 3993 okay oh you had you did 3993 is the the knife twist in chicago fan man yeah sorry okay sorry if you did you have anything to add there i was just curious like if you got to distribute 3993 across those exactly that that's what really makes it it difficult with

those weapons if he does spread the ball around. And there's a good chance he doesn't. One of the things I really like about Ben Johnson coming in is I do feel like he does what really good coordinators do, which is design plays for people. Like, you know, I mean, every, every play has, you know, a first read or whatever. But a lot of times, like, you see this with Shanahan. You see this with McVeigh. You're scheming somebody open. And so, like, they did that a lot in, in, uh, Detroit. And I hope they do that here so that they can focus on DJ Moore or, or Roma Dunez, because I want one of those two guys to really excel for fantasy. Mike, uh, Instagram question from Nate. One of the wild cards. Wild card. Jaden Reed or a shot on.

Chris Olavé this year. I would, I'd go Jaden Reed. I, if it were Derek Carr, that would be an easy, as fun as it is to poke fun at Derek Carr. I would much rather have him throwing the ball to Chris Olive than Spencer Rattler or Tyler Shuck, which is who it will be. The quarterback production is going to be very low for the New Orleans Saints. And maybe whoever comes in is like, okay. We're going to do the Malik neighbor situation of OLAV is going to get up, you know, like 30 plus percent of the targets and then everything can be okay. But I don't think that'll happen. So I will take the part-time player, which both very talented, Jaden Reed, limited by his team, but he's still, I think he's still the wide receiver one. Chris Olavee, I think part of the discussion here. He freaks me out this year. I don't think we've like.

taken a second to reflect on his game log from last year. I know we had the concussion twice. But before that, you're talking about a player that was out there on the field and, you know, look, what was the truth last year? You lost Derek Carr at times and you saw what Olavé looked like without Derek Carr. Like in week eight where he had 14 targets, eight receptions, and 107 yards with Spencer Rattler? Like that? That's what I'm saying. The targets. Mr. Moore. You know, Mr. Moore. You're literally proving my point. You just one week out of 11 or out of 9. 41% great. Okay. If it's Spencer Rattler and we're going to get a 41% target share, averaged out. Oh, Spencer. You're back. If we can average that out for the, that he's hitting 41%? He's not been a touchdown guy either. Five throw in. Five touchdowns. Oh, Rashid Shaheed? Yeah.

Brandon Cooks, Alvin Camara. Juwan John. Also, clearly the other team. This is. Clearly. Oh, please, James this. Make them have to throw it more. James should be the starter. Oh, my goodness. The Saints would love it. But you do have an injury risk with Olave too that Mike. I don't think you mentioned that. No. I'm just talking about part-time player, better quarterback. But then Olave, if he's, if he gets concussed, which receivers do, you're done for the year. You could be done for me. I'm saying to put them both on the field for 17 games, and I'll bet on Jordan Love. If there was, if they were both on the field 17 games, if I knew for a fact, they're both playing 17 games, I would, I would bring a, I would back up a Brinks truck on the Olava side. Okay. Olave has always, even with other backup quarterbacks, his issue is, is concussion.

I mean, that is, it is a massive, you could say, but he's literally his last 17 rolling games, including games where he's completely been not actually in because he got knocked out of with a concussion. He's an A inconsistency. He's not a guy that goes out there and scores 25 points. So you're not excited about him. But he's a guy that always has the targets, the volumes, the yards, and scores, you know, 10 to 14, the 10 to 14 fantasy points. They're very similar in points per game production in their career. Yeah, but not in consistency. No, but that's where.

Chris Olave, if I put him in my lineup, week after week after week, he's helping me. And then Jaden Reed is like the two-thirds of his games are going to actively hurt me in my fantasy production. I mean, he might help me win one of every three. Olave has played, like he's played with competent quarterbacks. Like it was before Derek Carr, it was, I mean, you had those couple games of James, but then you had Andy Dalton. Andy Dalton is. a competent starter. He's like, look, he is where he is at this point of his career, but if I'm relying on a quarterback for fantasy, man, you put Andy don't know this team right now compared to those guys. This season is much better. Your future is not, but they're Rattler and Shuck freak me out. It's a good question. And if you take, yeah, I don't know, if you give me a guaranteed 17 weeks of Alave as the one and the snap counts that are 10, 15% higher than Jane Reed.

Maybe that's the way I'd go to. But I don't necessarily guarantee. And I think, I mean, Jaden Reed's going to score more touchdowns than a lobby this year. Yes. That will happen. That will happen. And he will, and he's not vulnerable to getting shucked on a weekly basis. Yeah, I mean, we know is not positive. No, we know that isn't. I mean, you thought it might be positive. I'm still not sure. But it's not. Yeah. I mean, the reason I picked that one game out last year of the game log is because that is literally the only single game. that he played without Derek Carr. As far as he got injured and played like 3% of snaps in a different one. Yeah. Scored negative. But like the only game he was active for was that game and he got 14 targets because he's open and he's the first reading the offense and he's good. But he's on the field which is my favorite part. The other 10 games with their car competent quarterback not really a good performance. He had he had a game here there but not very good. Certainly. And this is year four. Over the normal bar to help you if you, which.

lead you back. I don't know if he plays for the Saints after this year. I don't think he's on the Saints. If you're going to force feed him 40 plus percent of the targets, you know, 14 targets game, that leads into further of, oh, like this, the Malik neighbors of last year. This is like, yeah, we got exactly what we wanted. And then Malik broke down where you're just like the guy, you can't get hit that many times. Stevie wants to know on Instagram. What is your take on auction drafts? Uh, auction drafts. are fun. I would dare say they are probably even superior to a snake draft for the simple fact that anyone can get whatever player they want when you are in a snake draft. When you get your spot, you know I'm in the back of the first. You can instantly cross off five players from your, I'm going to target. I'm going to draft them. I cannot get them in a snake draft. You can in an auction. Like if you want to go spend up for those elite players,

You are free to do so. This is why we say Fab is for your waiver system. Fab is so much more superior than a rolling list of rolling priority list. The problem is those drafts take hours and hours. And they're just, it's the snake draft is much faster. It's much easier to talk about. So I don't, it's fine. You want to play auction? Go ahead. Go do it. Yeah, I mean, it's fun. We've played auction leagues before. It's a great way to go. We're all about fun. If that's the most fun for you and your friends play that way. We have auction rankings. I mean, in the UDK, we have, you can go in and dig into auction. We accommodate that. So Instagram question is Josh Downs a sleeper this year? Yes. Yes. Yes, I would say, yeah. How about you, Jay? You love Josh Downs.

No, yeah, I do like Josh Downs. He's a good player. He's the wide receiver two there. I think he's a sleeper for where he's going in drafts right now. He'll, he should outperform that. The issue is like, like he's one of those guys where outproducing where he is drafted might not really matter. Right, right. That can't just be the sole barometer when we're trying to win a championship in fantasy football leagues because it's like, oh, great, you know, he was projected to. where that wide receiver is usually scores 6.8 fantasy points, and he scored 7.2 fantasy points per game. It's like, well, that still didn't help you, even though he outproduced. I don't know that the ceiling can be that high for any of the pass catchers for the Colts. He was better on a points per game basis than Mr. Pittman last year. And he is going ahead of Mr. Pittman this year. So I think it's a good way to, I mean, he may be the one.

He might be. He's a good player. He was at 10 and a half fantasy points of game last year. I think Pittman's at eight and a half. It hasn't like Pittman's benefited from those massive volume years before, but I think Downs is definitely a sleeper. I think that's or a value depending on how you want to. He definitely has more like yards after catch juice than Michael Pittman, which that's probably how the way that the Colts are going to have to function. Yeah. No, and he's a short area. That's what I mean. Yeah, no, I think he's a better player. I do. I think he's a better player. And I think he's, if you can get a top option, even that late in the drafts, ninth round, late eighth round, slot him in, get 10 points a week. I can live with that. Yeah, when the, we've been in fantasy football long enough to know that there are certain situations every single year.

that get avoided like the plague because all of us project and predict it's going to be the worst possible case scenario. And it becomes accepted by everybody. They're like, this is gross. I want nothing to do with it. And then guess what is not gross? Like it's Daniel Jones goes in week one and has himself a great year. Like these things happen. You have to leave margin to be super wrong on things. To have Sam Darnold to be good. Yeah. Now it feels like, well, yeah, I mean, he was, but he was a joke. He was a washout for all team. That's a perfect example. Then he goes in there and it's like, oh, no, he was a, you know, or Baker in Tampa when he started there and nobody believed in him. Yeah. So, yeah, it does happen every year. Maybe that's, um, I mean, look, that's a point in your, in your shut corner. I will be betting against the Colts offense. That's what I will be doing. But when you're in these late, late rounds.

Just have some humility and be like, yeah, okay, I'll take Josh Downs. Since you brought up, Shuck, I just, I wanted to go. He's been writing on this board for like six minutes. I was just curious. I'm not wanting to throw up question his way. He's, he's not talking to the audience right now. He is looking directly into the mirror and talking to himself. You know what, but that's a valuable. you know, process to help me be able to talk to people later. I was looking at Chris Olave without Derrick Carr the previous season because Carr missed games then and there were six games, seven point two fantasy points, 18.8, 4.1, 13.1, 13.1, average over 10.5 fantasy points a game. I don't know who the quarterback. Yeah, that was going to be the next question. Probably James. I didn't look into, was James there last year? James is everywhere, man.