Fantasy Football Podcast 2017 - Early WR Rankings Part 2

It's still not the end of the world. If he finishes his last year, you can hope that this team makes a step forward with either Simeon or Lynch in quarterback production and play. And that will change the consistency level. But at least you have over 1,000 yards with Demarius. You have touchdown potential. And for me, it's just the draft value. If you told me Demarius is going in the second round because everybody's expecting a top 10 performance, I would be like, okay, go pick somebody else. Yeah, I didn't realize that he was going in the fourth. So if that holds up, then I'm all.

on board with getting to Marys. It just is, the yardage is there, but the touchdowns, the last two years have vanished. And I think they'll stay, I think they'll stay around there. Around where they are, because prior to Peyton, you know, that, that's kind of what he was after Peyton. Well, before Peyton, I mean, he was, he had a young buck. Well, he was also, he was very injured.

his first couple years. I think he had a hand problem, and he also had a Tim Tebow problem. Yeah, so, you know, I don't expect him to bounce back to that top five, but I actually have him more where Andy does. Andy, you've got him 11. I've got him 13 because you've got a guy who is far more consistent than some of the other players in this range. Definitely has the capabilities to score touchdowns, either from, you know, taking a screen to the house or just from, you know, his 50-50 balls.

And, you know, when you've got someone that has done it for so many years in the past, it's much easier to put your faith in them to do it again. And this last season, he was just outside wide receiver one, despite it being the first season with Trevor Simeon. So one more year of continuity there is only going to help. And I know we all, I mean, we all like Dak Prescott a lot more than the quarterback's in place in Denver. But, you know, Demerius Thomas is a big manimal.

Yeah, oh yeah. He's a lot like Des in the sense that, you know, there's a high upside for Demarius Thomas that doesn't always exist with every type of wide receiver. And so I like the upside and the potential there. We'll see what happens this next season at the quarterback position. And number 13, a guy that deserves to be talked about more, similarly to Doug Baldwin, I think, you know, you just don't respect him in fantasy draft. Seven of the last 10 years, he's been in top 12.

wide receiver, including the last two years, and that's Larry Fitzgerald. 34-year-old Larry Fitzgerald, number 12 last year in 2016, was number 9 in 2015. Arizona struggled a little bit last year. Palmer really struggled. But still, Larry put up a top 12 season. So right now, he's a six-round pick. Yeah, that's what I was going to bring. In a PPR league, he's a fifth round pick. Yeah, and the thing about Larry Fitzgerald was...

I think that's reflected in his ADP is he is guilty of a monster start, right? Last year, five touchdowns in the first five games. He only had one touchdown the rest of the year, and he gave that initial impression. It was burned into people's minds. Okay, I have a top level wide receiver one. I stole him in the draft. And then he returns to,

kind of what that was an unsustainable pace for for what larry did in the first five games and then people get mad you get you get burned by a guy who you think he's one maybe you went and bought him yeah maybe you paid the price he begins as one thing and then he returns to the the mean and people get super super mad about it but i mean he was a ppr guy that's you have to think about larry as a ppr guy he was under five receptions only three times

Only twice was he under seven targets, seven games and double digit targets. He was, that's who he is now. He's a PPR guy with touchdown upside. But you just, you cannot, don't bank on, well, I'm going to get 10 touchdowns from Larry Fitzgerald. You're probably not. You're exactly right here. And the way that fantasy players and our listeners need to look at Larry Fitzgerald.

is what you just described. He is a PPR guy now. Led the league in reception last year. He led the league. This is his going out campaign as well, right? I mean, I don't think there's any, I mean, maybe he'll play longer, but I doubt it. I think when Carson leaves at the end of this year, Larry's going to leave, and they're going to ride off into the sunset. So they're giving it every, give it all you got. Give it everything you got. But here's what happened last year.

that you might not realize, Mike, you talked about the touchdowns, right? Sometimes they come, sometimes they don't. They came in the beginning of the year. Here's the scarier part for fantasy, though, when you're looking at Larry Fitzgerald. In his first three games, he got six targets inside the 10. First three games. The next 13 games, he also got six targets inside the 10. And that was as David Johnson kind of took over that Inside the 10 role.

My recommendation to people going forward is Larry is a great value in the sixth round. But he is what we were talking about kind of last episode as those plug and play, try to get 10 points, not a high upside, not your one, even if he finishes as kind of that number 12 wide receiver because he gets enough touchdowns. He is much more valuable in half point and full point PPR. If this is a standard league, I'm dropping them.

All right, let's talk about a wide receiver 10 years younger than Larry Fitzgerald, number 14 under consensus wide receiver rankings. Alan Robinson, A. Rob. He came off the amazing 2015 campaign in which he was the number six fantasy wide receiver. Now you head into 2016, and he disappointed. He certainly disappointed for the first three quarters of the year. The offense, the Blake Bortles effect.

We talked about the Team Tebow effect. Well, the Blake Bortle's effect. It hurt Alan Robinson. But Alan Robinson hurt himself as well. I think he was pressing. He ended up number 25, so he's outside the top two-wide receiver range. Guys, what can we expect from Alan Robinson? Because his draft position says people are counting on at least a pretty decent bounceback campaign from Robinson. He's 24 years old.

He's a great dynasty pickup still in people's minds. So what in the world is going to happen this year with Robinson and Bortles? This is 14 is much higher than I have him. So I would assume that the two of you guys are bringing up his average. It's actually mostly Andy because I've got him 20. I've got him 20 as the 20th wide receiver. You've got him 22nd. Andy's got him 10. So expecting that bounce back or here's.

Here's the problem with Alan Robinson's bounce back for me. Story, the narrative. Yeah, the narrative. So, you know, 2015, incredible monster year. 2016, he had identical targets. 151. Literally the exact same amount of targets. 520 fewer yards, eight fewer touchdowns, and that's only on seven fewer receptions. So it was just things had changed.

Blake Bortle's deep ball was not on. The numbers on that are actually quite staggering, so they could return. But 2014, we have a 10-game sample size of Allen Robinson, 11.4 yards per catch. Last year, 16 games, 12.1 yards per catch. 2015, 17 and a half yards per catch. That's a Deshaun Jackson level.

of yards per reception. And that's not who Alan Robinson is. Well, he can be that, but I don't agree. I don't agree with that at all. You don't think, you're saying that you think that Alan Robinson is a Deshaun Jackson mold? No, no. You said that's not who he is at all. I thought you were referring to him being able to catch deep passes. No, no, no. He certainly can. I'm saying that Deshaun Jackson averages 17 plus yards per reception because that's...

Who he is. That's not who Alan Robinson is. Alan Robinson works shorter as well. And so I don't think over the course of the year, you're going to have another season where he averages 17 yards per reception. That's what I'm saying. His last four games of the year, I mean 17 yards of reception, 16.3, 16. To me, the truth lies somewhere in the middle between 2015 and 2016. I would agree with that. The target numbers were there. That's a positive too, right? Like, that's a great.

baseline to come back. 14 touchdowns, right? In 2015? Is that the number? He was tied with... It was 14 or 15? Correct. And he was tied with Brandon Marshall for the league league. We know the story with touchdowns. It's one of the arguments we just made about Mike Evans. That number dropped down to six. Okay? That's the story. The story is that efficiency number. The truth lies somewhere in the middle. I lean. I push the middle just a little bit up because he's 24 and he's still growing as a player. So for me...

I think Alan Robinson's potential is there. You got a new head coach. They started to figure out the better way to use Alan Robinson and moving them around in the formation at the end of the year. I lean that direction because I want a guy that has the upside of it. Do you think that the disappearance of Alan Hearns had anything to do with Alan Robinson's disappearance? I think that all the disappearances had to do with Blake Bortles and, you lean that it's all Bordley. I do. I think it was Bortles. Yeah, I mean, the ship was sinking.

For the year. And if you turned on a Jacksonville game, every couple seconds you'd pan to the sideline and you'd see Alan Robinson like slamming his helmet down or looking like, you know, he's about to have to do tax work. You know what I mean? He just looked disappointed and frustrated. And when that happens, you see people press. I also think the lack of any effective running game last season.

was, you know, it made a difference there and it made life hard. They've never been able to run. Yeah, but my point is that if they use that number four pick, you know, if they decide to go out and spin that capital on a piece in the running game, I like that for Alan Robinson is my point. Alan Robinson accounted for 43.5% of the 10 zone targets.

Yeah. For Jacksonville. You look at those two years, and I would say if I'm projecting his point totals, I'm probably putting him between. Positive regression. Probably around 1,100 yards, maybe a little over 1,000 to 1,100 yards. And you could probably get them around that 8 touchdown range. I mean, those targets are going to be there for him in the red zone. I think it'll get him up in that 10 to 12 range. That's my angle. You guys have them significantly lower, and I don't blame you. I don't blame me for that at all. You might.

It doesn't seem he's going to end up on any of your teams. No, he's on his draft position. Exactly. He's still a wide receiver two for me, but he's at the top of the third round, and there's guys I like later. Michael Crabtree comes in at number 15 guys. Michael Crabtree. He's going to be great value again. Always, because nobody.

Nobody respects Michael Crabtree. He's only 29 years old. He finished number 11 last year. So everybody was impressed with him in 2015. All he did was improve upon that season last year. Over 1,000 yards, 8 touchdowns, 145 targets. And so you look at that compared to a guy like Alan Robinson, right? He had two more touchdowns. He had more yards, similar target totals. Tried and true. He actually is Derek Kars, kind of first red zone target where Amari Cooper seemed to.

disappear and marie cooper is uh sixth on that list 16th actually yeah but uh behind a couple o lineman crabtree his draft position right now somewhere in the late fourth delightful yeah that's that's delightful for me that uh the last two yards or two years so with their car 145 targets 146 targets so there was the the

The target share is the same. He was tied for fourth in red zone targets with 21. He was ninth in total receptions. He gets touchdowns. And Derek Carr is a maturing good quarterback in this league. Got Marshawn just breaking up the, pulling the linebackers up. You have ARP running up the backfield for them now. Arp.

Oh, my gosh. Derek Carr would have easily had over 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns if he was able to play the final game before his leg injury. Michael Crabtree is, he's much like Doug Baldwin, except I think he's a bit more, in my opinion, he's a bit more consistent. I don't know if you have the 10-point numbers on Michael Crabtree, Jason. I sure do. Would you like to have him? Hit me. Hit me. All right. So Michael Crabtree was excellent.

this past season. He had nine games over 10 fantasy points. Just for a frame of reference, because this whole thing started off of T.Y. Hilton. I need the tops. You know, if you had eight, and this is standard scoring, if you had eight games over 10 points and eight games under 10 points, that actually put you basically in the top 10. So not many guys had, you know, eight, and he had nine. So Crabtree is right up there, very consistent.