Fantasy Football - 2025 Bust Picks + Risers & Fallers - Podcast for 8/25

the lion's offensive line and missing interior pieces of that line. So, Mike, an update here from this injury, you're on the clock right this second. You actually are on the 101, and you have to pick between Bijan and Sequin in our League of Record draft. How are you leaning? Still Bejohn. Okay. Okay. Yeah, the, I'm looking at the offensive line composite rankings right now for 2025. Number one, Philly. Number two, Denver. Number three, Tampa. Bottom three, offensive lines. Still Tampa, even with Worf's? Mm-hmm. Worf's is only missing, I mean, he's not even on Pup. Yeah. So, yeah, I'm sure to start the year in Tampa, that'll be a little bit of a problem, but still number four, Detroit. And bottom three, you want to take your shot? Texans. Texans are the worst.

Yeah, you should be able to figure out. Yeah, dolphins are fifth. Fifth worst? Yeah. But we didn't get those. Those were my two. No, you should be thinking about Cincinnati. Oh, yes, of course. You should not forget that. Of course. Seattle three, giants, four in terms of the worst. So that was today's news and note sponsored by Progressive Insurance quote today at Progressive. progressive casualty insurance company affiliates and third party insurers not available in all states or situations coverage subject to policy terms limits and conditions all right we'll do this now bus it's not my favorite segment i don't really you know week zero here i don't like focusing it's important though it's important to get these right i mean if you drafted one of those picks that ruined people's seasons last year then

You wish you could avoid it and listen to last year's episode. And on top of our, we each picked a bust player today, but on top of that, we also released a special episode on Saturday. Yeah. Which looks like it's going crazy right now. That's good. Yeah, it's, we've been running a special mini series only on YouTube called Just the Tips. And this one was about fades and it was talking, it's highlighting situations that you should be fading almost every single year. And then. Who is in that scenario this year that you need to have, at least have the antennae up in the air? Well, I have gotten back to the time of year where, unfortunately, I am going to say Garrett Wilson's name. Oh, man. Garrett Wilson is my bust pick. Boo! I'm sorry? It...

I understand. He has everything, right? He's got talent. He's got ability. He's got a four-year contract worth $130 million with $90 million guaranteed. He's got the targets, the second most in NFL history through three years. That's cool. And I think the floor is good for Garrett Wilson, but I think you might be really, really disappointed with the ceiling this year. And because we've been there, you know, we got the Aaron Rogers experience. He had a better season. mostly due to seven touchdowns last year. The year before, I mean, I don't know if we've ever seen a player. I mean, Kyle might know this off the top of his head because he's weird, but 168 targets during a year ending outside the top 30 at the position. There's no way that's ever happened. That feels outside of that one year with Garrett Wilson. Like it is the most Garrett Wilson thing ever. That has been the story of his career. Get as many targets as humanly possible. But, you know, the struggles in the preseason, Justin Fields.

the passing game, Taylor Ingstrand coming over from Detroit. I really believe the running game is going to be what everything's predicated on there. If they have any success, that's going to be where it's at, in my opinion. I think the shorter of your targets, I think the high target volume is going to be there. I just don't know if you get the seven touchdowns. He's being drafted at wide receiver 15 in the third round. I personally would not feel cozy with him as my wide receiver won. And so that's kind of the story with Garrett Wilson. I think, you know,

It's just really hard to trust an erratic passer on a team you don't believe will win a lot of games. Fields is not going to put up 300 a game, right? He's not going to have the pass attempts that make you super excited. This is the quarterback that was part of the difficult start of the year for George Pickens, who you guys love, who you believe, and in part you love because you trust Dak Prescott. So, you know, Pickens. That is the negative case for Fields. We saw a good year for DJ Moore. So it's not outside the realm of possibilities, but I'm just really worried about how often this team shows up in the red zone. How often Garrett Wilson is able to, you know, find himself in high value situations. I feel like defenses can put three guys on Garrett Wilson. Yeah, maybe four. You know, it's like if I'm a defensive coach, I go, man, dude, we got 11. We got 11 players on this side of the ball. They've got like two.

Maybe. Like, you know, being hyperbolic, but to actually do that, you have to account for Justin Fields as the runner in the defense. So you can't just overload and not have someone making sure that he's not out there running. Yeah, the over underlying on his touchdowns this year is four and a half on every sports book. So just for where they have that pegged, that's, you know, he can always outperform that. But the two previous years, three. and four with bad quarterback play lower volume you know if you get four and a half touchdowns right you know four or five touchdowns you're you're probably going to be disappointed at why you serve 15 yeah the the the garr wilson hope is the the dj more season from a couple years ago but we that was not super consistent but you got huge spike weeks but if

to only get a couple spike weeks for a third round wide receiver. Oh, this is, it's tough. This is interesting, too, Kyle pulling up our consistency metrics in the UDK, but Fields two, wide receiver won, so that was DJ Moore and Pickens over their last 17 games with him. They only surpassed 10.5 fantasy points 33% of the time. Yeah, there you go. So their number one, the number one receiver for Fields, that's a D in our consistency rankings, and kind of scares me, and it makes me sad. Yeah, and one of those years was, I mean, what a DJ more finish? Like wide receiver six? He had a great finish, but it wasn't. It still wasn't good for fantasy. Right, right. When you drafted him, you did not at the end of the year go, yay, I drafted the wide receiver six because you got it in like three games. Yeah, that was it. So, yep, that's my boss pick. Garrett Wilson. I'm sorry. It, uh, one, two, three, four, six. You got six really good weeks. Right, which is still a shockingly bad number.

for the wide receiver six. You would expect. Did he finish at wide receiver six? Yes. Yeah. I mean, that's crazy. That is crazy. Yeah. It was some big place. I mean, these are good players, right? DJ Moore. Garrett Wilson are superstars. Like they can absolutely break a game. Well, I'll go next and I'll throw out someone that I absolutely love. He is a talented player. He's going to be great. Can Mike and I get a paper bag? He is. being overdrafted. I hate to say it, but Ashen Gentie is not, he should not be picked where he's being picked. Papa John totally disagreed. Yeah, of course. Wait, who has Ashen Genti right now in a league? Yeah, okay. You know, last year I pointed this out with Marvin Harrison, which hurt because we love Marvin Harrison, but he was going to the back of the first round. What you have to do to pay off on your draft capital is be phenomenal. You have to hit metrics that are.

pretty wild for him and his situation to hit. You ask yourself on all these running backs. We, you know, we've gone through and we've talked about all these guys. Can this player be a top five back? Can this player be a top five back? And we ask, I mean, you don't ask the question on like Bijon or Seekwon or most of the top five picks, but you have to ask the question, can Ash and Genti be a top five? running back and you probably answer, well, yeah, I could think, I think he can be. That's how I would probably answer. But he's being drafted as a top five back. It's not like hypothetical. He already is being drafted as a top five back. What does he have to do to pay off on that ADP? Well, over the last five years, a top five running back averaged 339 opportunities and 15.8 touchdowns. Do we expect Ashen Genti with the Raiders to be anywhere near that?

Every single top five back over the last five years, except for one, Bruce Hall who had 95 total targets, had double digit touchdowns. So he basically has to get double digit touchdowns because of where he's being drafted. You know, we look for certain checkboxes in fantasy. Volume. Yeah, he's got that. He was drafted great. He's got the talent. That's great. He could pass catch. That's great. Is he on a winning team? Probably not. They're in a very tough division. They're projected for six or six and a half wins, depending on which sports book you're looking at. Over the last eight years, we looked at every team with a preseason win total of six or fewer. Okay, there's 33 different teams. What did their running backs produce for fantasy? Overall, 21st in total running back fantasy points. 27th in total running back rushing yardage. Only one player finished in the top five at the position. That was...

2017 Todd Gurley, thanks to 19 touchdowns and some really surprising coach named Sean McVeigh. You know, he's this young little kid that nobody had ever heard of. I think we know what Pete Carroll is. He's the, you know, I like Pete Carroll. I've talked him up as a good coach. I think it was a good hire, but he's, you know, he's very old. He's very old and he's not going to surprise us with some crazy offense. And if you look at the, look, the Raiders needed Ashen Gentie. Their running game was. Awful. But it wasn't just like, hey, they weren't good. They were the lowest expected points added per rush of any team for the last five years. Ashen Genties great. But he is in a situation where you do not expect them to be a 10 win team. You do not expect them to be scoring a ton of points to have double digit rushing touchdowns. And he's being drafted right now as the running back five. It's just two.

Sorry, go ahead. Yeah, I mean, more than likely, there's a good, easy path for him to be great and finish outside the top 10. If that happens, he's a flat out bust. Josh Jacobs is good, right? Josh Jacobs is very good. Yeah, he's 3.8 to carry there last time he was in Las Vegas. Yeah. Also, Josh Jacobs being drafted well behind Ashen Genti as a workhorse back on a great offense. Right. I don't know. One of those seems like a smarter pick to me. So this time of years when Jason just steps on the hopes and dreams of the young.

Superstar. Sometimes it's too easy. Like this is, like, I don't think we should be shocked when it doesn't work. And it's not because Ashen Genti is bad. He's just being, it's all market. It's all market. He's being overdrafted. And honestly, there's a lot of question marks once you get past the other, you know, the other five running backs in my opinion. And that's where I'd be looking at wide receiver at that little middle to back end of the first round. All right. We'll take a break and come back with Mike's pick. And. I think I need to hear from Mike because I was starting to maybe go the other way. Oh, I know what you mean. It's hard to do. This episode is brought to you by prize picks. Preseason football is underway and college football is here. So don't miss any of the action this season on prize picks. Prize picks is simple to play. Just pick more or less on two to six different player stat projections. If you get your picks right.

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a backup because well even the best fantasy football team in the world doesn't go according to plan sometimes those starters they don't show up wouldn't it be great if you could have the same peace of mind everywhere else with progressive you get more than just a policy you get a playbook full of coverage options you can count on for your home and for your auto want to customize your protection no problem you can build your coverage just like your fantasy team making sure that you have the right players in every position and a backup when you need it most And when life throws an audible like a fumble in the driveway or a hailstorm at home, Progressive is there with 24-7 support. Don't get caught without a great backup. Visit progressive.com to quote today. Progressive Casualty Insurance Company, affiliates, and third-party insurers, not available in all states or situations, coverage subject to policy terms, limits, and conditions. All right, it is time for Mike to lay out his...

bust pick for 2025 on this show today. And I, it frightens me, Mike. Oh, it's terrifying. It's living daylight time. It is terrifying because my bust pick this year. It's Patrick Mahomes, superstar quarterback of the Kansas City Chiefs. And we're entering year nine. He's about to be 30 years old. And Andy, I think what you're referring to before the break of maybe like, oh, maybe things are going to be okay for Kansas City because they've, Mahomes has looked good. Well, yeah, and big plays, you know, Taekworn Thornton down the field. But he can turn, he can turn any mediocre speedster into a star. He can, but Justin Watson, McCle Hardman. Skymore. Well, that's what I'm saying. Skymore is, he's not in that level. But I think that's what's funny about that. It's like, I mean, that's the MVS.

The Valdez Scanling was on this team and we thought, oh, and maybe it can work out. Patrick Mahomes is kind of right now in drafts. He is the consolation quarterback. If you don't get the big four, Al Lamar, Jaden, and Jalen Hertz. And then Joe Burrow is next. I think, you know, ADP-wise, he's in his own little tier. And then if you don't get one of those five, then it's Patrick Mahomes. And it makes total sense of Mahomes previously was a fantasy football superstar. But here is what has happened to Patrick Mahomes. Last year, he did not finish in the top 12 until week nine. Patrick Mahomes would have been a top three quarterback pick last year. He posted career lows in yards per attempt and touchdown rate because the chiefs have changed who they are as a football team. They're winning with defense and ball control. Kansas City has declined an average depth of target.

every single gear since Patrick Mahomes has become a starter. When he took over the job, we're at 9.1. This is incredible. Eight and a half. Oh, and we just keep dipping. Keep dipping. And then we're just down to 6.4. He is, last year was one of six quarterbacks with more than 19% of their attempts behind the line of scrimmage. To me, to me, Mahomes, let me just interrupt because I want to ask the question. I already know how bad he's been. Right. I know how about he's been for two years for fantasy. I just need to know that he's going to be bad again. Because with Mahomes, if they want to flip a certain switch, if they want to install a different software, he's the best in the league. He could do it tomorrow. That's why this is a terrifying pick. Well, I would answer the question with a question, is their defense going to be elite. Because if their defense is great, which it's been the last couple years.

I don't think they're going to flip that switch. Okay. Yeah. So, I mean, that could be true. And it comes down to you, like with the... And that cost, the draft cost is in the gross spot. Right. He's a fifth round pick. You've got five guys that you love at the top. You've got probably 10 guys you love at the back of the draft. Yes. And here's Patrick Mahomes, where you make basically a lifetime commitment to him in the fifth round. If there are players, I would take, if they both cost a dollar in an auction draft, like I would rather have Dak Prescott personally.

than Patrick Mahomes for fantasy, and that's regardless of draft cost. Wow, okay. And you're telling me I got to spend a fifth. I didn't, I thought, I thought Mahomes was lower than that. And the fifth round is just ADP-wise, it's so juicy right now. Trayvion Henderson, R.J. Harvey, Teteroa McMillan, James, George Pickens. Like, there are guys right in that range that I really, really want to get on my team. And I feel like I'm just settling. for Patrick Mahomes because of, you know, three years ago, if he hits what he hit three years ago in the fifth round, he's probably the best pick and fantasy football. But that's a big, big question. I wanted to look at Brady because, you know, what are the last two years in fantasy finish for Mahomes? Do you have those in front of you? Yeah, let me, he was the wide receiver 11. He plays wide receiver? No, he was the quarterback 11 and 8, but both of those were at.

17 and a half and 17.6 points per game. Not difference makers. Brady did this, and this is not me arguing for Mahomes. I'm just saying it's like Brady would have a year at 14, a year at 12, a year at 8, then a year at 3. He'd have a year at 13, a year at 9, then a year at 2. And it was like, you know he's capable of it at any time? And yet the better decision for your team is probably if you had to start a guy every single week, I'd rather start Jared golf. Yeah. And then the question, like, you spend the fifth on Mahomes. How many games? How many games do you play where you're like, oh, I think it's going to turn around? That's the biggest problem. You just keep playing him over and over. And suddenly you're, what if you're four weeks in? Yeah, over. Yeah, you go through the face. Like, week, it took till week nine to get a top 12 performance from him last year. If you're waiting four or five weeks, I mean, it will be devastating to just keep starting him over and over.

He could. They could flip the switch and they say we want to pile on the stats for Patrick Mahomes, but that's it's a dangerous proposition. How many games in a row convince you that you're wrong? That's what I'm asking. No, no, no. No, no. He's asking you. You answer me. I will answer. I'm saying to the point of you like. How many would you believe? I'm saying like you don't draft him, but he's out there. You say that he's back? If he has the great week one, do you believe? Does it take five weeks? I'm just curious. To where we go, oh, okay, they are throwing it deep. They are going to open it up. I'm in on Patrick Mahomes. Probably two. But probably two. But now here we have another caveat. When is Rishi Rice going to get suspended? Like every other game for two years. Seems like after week four.

That would be the dopest suspension ever. Just every other. You got eight games. Every other. What if suspensions? We want you, your team messed up. What if you could pick, like if the suspension. Oh, you could pick whatever games? You need to miss eight games a season. Whenever you want. Whenever you want. Oh, that's funny. Do you backload them in case you get injured? Oh, no, you're picking out some. Some duds. It's an insult to the other team. Yeah. Every time they're like, we're going to take a suspension game on this one. Carol Isaac. Okay. All right. That's bulletin board material every week. So say Patrick Mahomes goes out. It has four nuclear games to start. Yeah. And then Rice is gone. Like. Right. You're just mixed in. Yeah. So.

Do you, does everything just completely drop off? Does he keep being Mahomes? Ironically, he had Rice to start last year and, you know, the first three weeks and he was the quarterback 13, 14, 15. So I just, he is at a point. They play the Chargers week one on the road, then Philly. Those are the first two weeks. Then you go on the road against the Giants. That's a terrible defense to play. Then Baltimore. Terrible defense to play. First four weeks favored, but real tough games. He had. been this player where I just I always I always skip over him in drafts and it just it got to the point where I'm like okay well I guess I just have to verbalize it because I don't want to draft him and here you are verbalize so look fade Patrick Mahomes at your own peril but blame Mike if it goes it's what I'm doing this year really well for him you know it makes sense so what are some of the other picks that we have here from the Foot Clan we've got Devon A. Chan is a popular answer on the Foot Clan discord

It makes sense with the current injury. It doesn't, the vibes are bad right now, but could still be very good for him. Calfs for a speedy running back are not an injury I want. Apparently Garrett Wilson and Ashton Genti are two of the top five on the Discord. All right. Makes sense. Bayquan and Tyreek are the other two names. Yeah, Tyreek makes a lot of sense. He's, he's going to be a boom or bust pick this year. But he's being at least with Tyreek, like. He's not being drafted. Sequin's being drafted like he's going to be the running back one again, obviously. Because Sequin. Yeah, he didn't look bad last year. Well, the only thing that can stop Sequin is getting hurt and, you know, the numbers of the workload from last year going to this year. They aren't great, but he is Sequin Barclay. Some guys are just different. Yeah, yeah. I mean, you, you nailed it. The only thing that stops Sequin Barclay is injured. Yeah. He hasn't lost anything. He's not in a situation where he could go out there and be bad.

But Tyree Kill could be done. Yes, that is very possible. Did you catch Malik Washington doing some work in the preseason game? Yeah. Yeah, he's a nasty boy. You just kind of, you could see things working out where he, I mean, he's a shifty dude. I mean, he can. I love Malik. He can make plays and you don't have Johnny. So I don't know what Darren Waller is. Tyree Keel could be like already prepping for the. you know, for his boat to go out onto the ocean and leave this team. Malik Washington's a little bit one of those like sneaky dudes at the end of drafts. I still think Jalen Waddle can be a very good post-hyped sleeper. He could be the number one on that team for sure. I think you're kind of getting to this point now where this is one of the reasons why you should mark players off in the UDK. There's just some names that you should pay attention to that are not going to move up at all in ADP and catch your eye.

So you need to mark them. Like for me, some names are Keon Coleman. Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. We got undrafted gyms tomorrow. You sure you want to get them all out there now? I mean, you decide what other names you got any of it. I was on a roll. I was out of role. All right. Who else he got? I'll do ones we've talked about. How about Ollie Gordon? Yeah. He's not going to be anywhere in ADP, but you could throw him on into your bench. You may start week one. Yes. Right. He is a priority late round draft. And another one I already mentioned. I Amanor in Tennessee who made plays again.

Epic Ile Manor. Hopefully. None of that sounds like a name. You know what I mean? Yeah. Like none of the name sounds like a name. If you say Epic Islemanor, I'm like, what are you trying to tell me right now? You're not like, you're talking about a person. No. Pat Bryant, you know. There's one more. Okay, I'll shut up now. Head over to megalobole. Join us in the 2025 Megalibol. If you'd like, you can learn about the leagues and how to get in there. The drafting. days. When's the first drafting day starting, Jason? Do you know the answer to that? I believe it is on Saturday. Yes, Saturday. Saturday, there's a couple of drafts, Sunday, a couple of drafts, Monday, a couple Tuesday, and then Wednesday. So get over there, get placed in a league, megalible.com. And if you have drafts coming up, I was actually a little surprised. Did you guys see the poll I threw up on Twitter? No.

Oh, that drafts have a lot of drafts have not happened. Not happen like historically. Maybe we're getting smarter as a people. Yeah, we should. We should push drafts back to at least this coming weekend where all the preseason is over. Most of the injuries are going to be fully out of the way. Clarity has been had. It's just tough because once you hit August, you just itch for it and you want to draft so bad. But this coming weekend is the best weekend to draft. 17% of people on Saturday had already done their draft. 26% had it this past weekend and 57% are sometime in the future, which is what we're doing. We're Labor Day. And you labeled that with their most important draft? I did. I said when is your main league draft? That's a good point. A lot of us have lots of drafts. We have three slow drafts going right now. Yes, sir. I do like the slow draft. Oh, yeah. For not your main league, for these extra leagues that you're in, that's the way to do it. I just feel like every.