The TRUTH About Fantasy QBs in 2020, Part 2 - Fantasy Football Podcast for 1/21

Just a little pop-out flag where you're like, yeah, Herbert's my guy. I'll ride with him for a few weeks. Yeah, I think you're going to, I lean more on, you know, towards the side that Andy was alluding to. I think come draft season, there will be someone in every league that you're in who believes Justin Herbert will take a step forward from the best rookie quarterback season we've ever seen, and he will be this next year's breakout, even though he was already so good.

this season. And so I think people will end up taking him early. I'm a little hesitant on believing that he takes a step forward next year. He's amazing. He blew everyone's expectations out of the water. I just wish he had more of a rushing baseline because for fantasy, you know, usually when you look at the top quarterbacks, they rush the ball. And you look at, you know, the first half of the season when he had the consistency rank of quarterback four.

He was on pace for almost 400 rushing yards, but as he got, you know, his feet under him, a better understanding of the offense, got more comfortable, became the leader of this team. He started throwing more, rushing less. His last eight games, he was on a 16-game pace of 136 rushing yards. And that's, so I think coming to this second season, one, we don't know who his offensive coordinator is going to be yet. It could be the same one. They have not released their existing offensive coordinator, but they are still.

doing interviews. So they wanted to interview the guy from the Rams, but that was blocked. Blocked. Sean McVeigh said to Kimbe Matumbo over here. You may, you may not interview. So yeah, I mean, I don't project. I mean, he had 4,300 yards, 31 touchdown, 10 interceptions. Do you project him to have much more than that just because he's going into year two? Probably not. I will say this. You can make the reason I believe what you're saying, Jason, about.

the case both directions where somebody in your league believes in him, somebody doesn't. Look, one of the arguments for him is he played against the worst offense with the worst offensive line in football, according to pro football focus, his recent end of year offensive line rankings. I will say that some of that scrambling he had to do. He didn't, you know, he didn't have a stable running back situation until late in the year as well. That was also something that you could.

Kind of craft the narrative both directions with Austin Echler's acumen in the passing game and that inflating his numbers and moving the offense or the fact that he had to drive the ball down the field as much as he did. He was so impressive. He set the rookie record in passing touchdowns, completion rate. This was a player that you could just see the arm talent on. And unlike a Josh Allen rookie season where the arm talent was 100% on display, but then the completion percentage was...

basement level. You had a 66% passer this year. And Justin Herbert, you know, I think he'll go above players like Brady next year who finished ahead of him, but yet are older. But I just don't know how high he can go. Yeah, I don't know how high he can go. And my confidence in Justin Herbert is he has a number one wide receiver. That guy's not going anywhere in Keenan. His number one running back is an elite pass catching running back like Andy said.

What if the offensive line gets improved and you look at his splits, there's no artificial pump and dump happening to Herbert's numbers against top 16, against bottom 16 defenses, 25 points. At home on the road, very, very close, no massive home advantage. So those numbers have me.

believing in Justin Herbert. He's great. He's elite. You watch some of the passes that he completes and there's just nothing you could do. The defense plays perfect defense. They're in his face and they're on the wide receiver and he just lays it right where it needs to be. And so going in the year two, he will step forward. I think he'll be a better quarterback next year.

than he was this year. But I think he'll be a worst quarterback for fantasy next year than he will be this year. One of the things, one of the big storylines early in the season was the decimation of one of what looked to be one of the best defenses in the league. They just lost all of their stars. And this is a team that had to throw to catch up every single game. They're losing these crazy last second possession type games. I don't expect that to happen next year. I think they're going to be able to.

you know, control the clock a little bit better, not have to be in shootouts and high scoring affairs. It's a good point. I probably, if people are high on Justin Herbert next year, I will probably sadly not have him, even though I believe he is phenomenal. Yeah, I think the truth of Justin Herbert is he's a great quarterback, one of the best rookies we've ever seen, and it'll be interesting to see if he can move.

upwards in fantasy production. Lamar Jackson comes in at number 10. Saying that out loud, that is kind of like a knife in the back of everybody that invested so heavily in drafts. There's a second quarterback off the board. And in 15 games, 2,700 passing yards, teeny pie, 26 passing touchdowns, still over 1,000 rushing yards. That is where Lamar Jackson provides his fantasy consistency.

which was at a 20% bust rate, 60% good, 27% great. That last number there is probably the most disappointing because you drafted, you drafted Lamar Jackson to win you the position over your fantasy opponent. And he didn't finish above four at the position but one time. And that was in week 14.

So when the player you drafted to win you the week at the position was consistently losing to your opponent, that hurt through the first 11 weeks. Yeah. I don't know what all the whole of blue is. I traded for Lamar Jackson and for that back half when he turned into the quarterback too. It was great. Guys, well, it was great having Lamar on my team. That worked out. No problems. Your point is apt that his first half and second half.

were very, very different. The first half where people drafted him, he definitely destroyed people's teams because you gave up the ability to draft a good running back, draft a good wide receiver in the second round, and that's where he was going, and that, you know, really hurt you. So the question now is the second half of the year when he was very, very good. You know, from week 13 on, he was a quarterback won every single week.

you know, top six three times. What changed? Why was that the Lamar Jackson that we saw? It wasn't. I don't think it was the Lamar Jackson that we saw last year. I don't think that was the reality. I think it was just touchdown. He just threw more touchdowns in that span. I don't think we saw the- Right, but that was the Lamar that we saw. Two years ago, the difference between Lamar this year and last year really is the amount of passing touchdowns.

He had the lowest fantasy finish for a quarterback with 600 plus rushing yard since Tim Tebow, who was the quarterback 19 and 2011. If the pie's that small, you are playing with fire on your touchdown percentage. That's all you're doing. I mean, he can run it in. J.K. Dobbins can run it in. He can end up with, you know, the variability. It just came to roost for those first 11 weeks. So I think, I guess, you know, what's the truth? What's the truth about Lamar Jackson?

I think one piece of it is very similar to Herbert that we were talking about. If you remember the beginning of the year, the defense of the Baltimore Ravens was as good as absolutely anybody out there, just absolutely dominant. And they were winning these games. Everyone was disappointed with Lamar Jackson, but this team was winning all their games. And then they lost some key pieces on defense, got injured, and had to be involved in, you know, a couple more shootouts.

And I expect them to be a very good defense next year. That's my expectation. So I think what we saw over the course of the season, you kind of mix it all together with Lamar Jackson and say, yeah, he's good, not great for fantasy. That's my expectation. The question is going to be, how far does he fall? Will people... It won't be that far. I agree. I think because he has such a huge name because he completely by himself won people championships two years ago, there's always going to be the allure.

the hope, the promise that you can get back there. You had obviously Hollywood Brown, right? That's the point I wanted to bring up was over that second half when things turned around, they started using Marquis Brown in different ways. Instead of just sending him on nine routes, they figured out how to get him more involved on the inside of the field that turned into Hollywood Brown scoring in five of the final six games. And that's the, that's how Lamar.

has to get it done. That's how you need that two years ago magic, where Lamar Jackson gets his thousand-yard rushing season and then is still throwing in touchdown. Yeah, Andy, I agree. J.K. Dobbs is going to take some rushing touchdowns. Two years ago, Mark Ingram, he took a boatload of touchdown opportunity away from Lamar Jackson, and he still was that dominant fantasy guy. So I think...

I think the truth about Lamar Jackson is not two years ago, but it is much closer to, much closer to the second half of this year than the first half. Well, look, let's look at the numbers. We broke down Aaron Rogers yesterday at the touchdown percentage. He had 9.1, which is outlandish. He did a 9% like 12 years ago, and it never came close to that again. Lamar in 2019 was 9%. This past year he was 6.9%, which is still a really good number. Yeah, a big drop.

to other quarters, big drop. So to me, it means that this year was a little bit more indicative of the prescription for Lamar Jackson, which will be, look, if I get close to what I got this year from Lamar, he's not going to be on any team because there's no way he's going at the QB10 spot. But there's still the possibility that he ends up like he did for you, which is you acquired him at the right time. He was a difference maker for you down the stretch.

And that was something we didn't see for the first 11 weeks. So another player that's going to be really interesting. Like Aaron Rogers is Lamar Jackson next year. It seems very easy to pick Aaron Rogers on my side. That's tough because the rushing baseline, you just brought up that passing touchdown percentage. It's going to come down for Aaron Rogers, just like it did the last time he did it, just like it did every time any quarterback in history has done that. And if that comes down, Lamar's baseline will...

probably be high enough to where you'd go that direction i would i would lean lamar kirk cousins came in at number 11 hey kirk all right uh did i read the consistency ranking of lamar he was actually eight i i feel like i skipped that uh 10th at the position in finished eighth in consistency speaking to i guess amplifying your whole rushing baseline comments there um kirk cousins finished at 11 his consistency rank was 14 um

You know, Kirk is an interesting quarterback because you look on paper now, now that we know what Justin Jefferson is. Right. Look, 4200 passing yards, 35 touchdowns, 13 picks. How impressive is that? That's a great season. That's a really good season. And it's surprising to me. Like, I think because he got off to such a slow start, you know, the first five weeks, he had three games where he wasn't in the top 16.

You just kind of forgot about him. But Kirk was really, really good. In the second half of the year, he was consistency ranked quarterback four as Justin Jefferson came on and they needed to throw the ball more. Now you have Kubiak leaving. The run game master is not going to be there. But it's still a team that wants to play defense and run the ball, right? Yeah, Mike Zimmer, for sure, no doubt. That being said, we talked about Tanna Hill yesterday as I crowned him like the king of the stream.

I think Cousins is right there with him where Cousins took advantage of bottom 16 defenses. He was five points better against him. He was also six points better at home. So you get him at home against the bottom five defense or a bottom six defense. Those are king of the stream numbers. I know when he's going to be good. Is he at home against the bottom defense? Perfect. I'm playing Cuckins. Yeah. This is crazy too. Cousins fantasy finish was the lowest ever for a quarterback with 35 passing touchdowns. So that's just to say that there were.

You know, the numbers we brought up yesterday with the rushing quarterback baselines going up with 20 plus, was it 20 quarterbacks with three plus rushing touchdowns. It really changed the way you look at this season because in another year, a 4,335 season doesn't finish at 11 at the position. This is a top 5, 6 type of year. Yeah. Unfortunately timing for Kirk to put up those numbers. But maybe that makes them a hidden value later in drafts with Justin Jefferson's evolution, with Thielen still being there.

with the team, you know, winning some ball games. I mean, they won a lot of games down the stretch with his arm. And Big Irv is coming into his own as a receiving tight end. And then, of course, Dalvin Cook is great in the receiving game. So I think it's going to come down to the schedule, right? When the schedule is made and is out, you're going to take a look. When you're looking at those late round quarterbacks because Kirk Cousins could go.