The TRUTH About Fantasy QBs in 2020, Part 2 - Fantasy Football Podcast for 1/21

teams and prospects to come together. There'll be interviews, there'll be workouts, there'll be timed events where, you know, we were talking before the show, Mike was saying, you know, is it hand timed 40s? Is everybody breaking records this year? TBD, right? Probably. Yeah. Yeah, you're going to have a ton of combines. Instead of one official, here's where everybody's doing it at the same time, pro days change from something that is also happening to...

What matters? You know, that's going to be where the scouting and that information is really dug up from. So we'll guide you through that as they happen through this off season. Are we going to finally get the 40s run in pads like I've been begging for my entire life? Can we just have the teams put them in pads and then compare them? This isn't a terrible year to do it. If you're having to reset the whole thing and fix the process, might as well just rip the bandaid off. But the answer is no, they're not going to do that.

All right. One of my bigger Ls from the season, the Ravens waved Mark Ingram. Right quick. You just see you. Farewell. Best shot at finding a new team. Robert Griffin as well, waved by the Ravens. AJ Brown ended up with surgery on both of his knees. He came out and he said that the team had told him he was done after two weeks. Ended up playing the full season. You never know how much hyperbole is there for the...

attention, but this is, I mean, when you have surgery on both your knees, something was wrong. Yeah. The nice thing is these were more cleanup procedures. These aren't, you know, reconstructive ACL type of surgery. So there should be no worry about his timeline. And if anything, he should be healthier coming into next season than he was playing the majority of this season. Are these more of those precautionary surgeries we've been hearing about? Yeah, exactly.

I'm going to put an extra ACL, just in case I tear one. I got three. I'll be good to go. Yeah, yeah. That's my double ACO. That says my dubs. All right. Michael Thomas is likely to undergo surgeries this off season as well, damage to the ankle. The news on Michael Thomas, man, it's eye opening. I know this happens every year where we get the news at the end that finally, like, oh yeah, this player was.

was toughing it out and they were going through like OBJ last year right and so Michael Thomas this year now they're talking about how he he wouldn't practice it was just far too painful and then they would get him out there on game day if people turn on Michael Thomas come the draft season which if we know the fantasy football community we are a fickle and vengeful crowd at times Michael Thomas

If he drops outside of those, you know, the top four at the wide receiver position is going to be a smoke and draft a value. Maybe. Let me just bring up. I believe he will. I was going to pose the question to Jason. AJ Brown, Michael Thomas, right here right now, who would you rather have next season? Because that, you know, I know you love AJ Brown, but they're both on the table.

Absolutely. But AJ Brown's cleanups don't scare me as much as, you know, the high ankle sprain ligament damage. But neither one really scare me. I don't think it's about injury. I would take AJ Brown over Michael Thomas because big play opportunity. We've seen in his two years, he's been, you know, a top guy. And Michael Thomas, well, obviously last, the season before last, he was the number one player. That was with Drew Brees. And I assume that he will have a different quarterback. And if it's...

you know, if his quarterback happens to be a tight end, I'm going to go ahead and take A.J. Brown. I will say in that time span of him playing with a tight end, wow, really, really hurt. He had two games over 100 yards. He had a 84-yard game. Like, he wasn't scoring touchdowns, but he was putting up some receptions and yardage numbers. Yeah, Michael Thomas, very good. This is not an anti- Michael Thomas take. It's more of a, there's going to be questions with the quarterback and.

AJ Brown is amazing. All right. One more bit of news. Dan's the man. Six year deal for Dan Campbell as the head coach of the Detroit Lions. Six guns. Six guns Mahoney. Oh, not bad. Not bad. So Dan Campbell, they're making them. We're giving Dan Campbell a six year deal Detroit. What are you doing? Look, I love it.

I generally speaking. Yes, so does Dan Campbell's bank account. Dan Campbell loves it. I think more teams need to do this in general. Like what's, you know, Shanahan in San Francisco, they made a long-term commit to him and the GM. Look, you cannot build a program, especially one that's been on the bottom in a year. And the coach needs to have the ability. Because here's the problem. You give a coach a short-term deal. They're looking for short-term results. You give a coach a long-term deal. They build the team the right way.

That would be my philosophy where it's like you have to have a foundational time period where like Miami. Miami's a good situation where it was going to take a couple of years. I don't know. I just say that like a four year deal. Is that a four year deal for a guy to prove himself? I think that's a pretty long term deal for it. Yeah, but nobody says four gun, right? You know what I mean? You need six. That's fair. You need a six gun. A six shooter. This contract is if they need to get rid of Dan Campbell in four years.

Dan Campbell's still getting paid for another two years. I think they were threatened just by his physical nature. When they were interviewing, they're like, oh, man, he's not going to accept four. He needs at least six. We're going to give you two years. And then he's just like, just flexes and his shirt rips off. Right. How many years? Oh, yeah. The interesting thing here is Dan Campbell is one of those rare.

coaches where he's not necessarily, I mean, he was a tight-end coach and more offensive. But he appears to me to be slotting in as a CEO-type head coach that's going to bring in an offensive coordinator and a defensive coordinator where those coordinators are going to run.

You know, the offenses and defense. They're not going to be figureheads for his offense. And I think that can work. And he'll just be the strength and conditioning guy. That's right. Well, he's sliding in his nose tackle as well. So, yeah, it makes sense. All right. Before we get into the truth, part two, we want to thank today's sponsors. And this is one I can speak very highly of. And that is Hello Fresh. With Hello Fresh, you get Fresh.

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You want answers? I think I'm entitled. You want answers. I want the truth. You can't handle the truth. All right, we're back into it. The truth at the quarterback position for the 2020 season. Always a lot of fun to walk through this. I hope everybody enjoyed the Tuesday episode. We went over the top eight quarterbacks at the position. And a reminder, all of the data we're using, that's four point per passing touchdown data.

And we look at consistency at the quarterback position and the reality of what these players did for your fantasy team on a week-to-week basis, not just the end-of-season rankings. Great games. We classify those as more than 26 fantasy points, good games, more than 20 fantasy points, and bus games fewer than 15 fantasy points. And we don't hold the missed games against them when we look at it. So, Jason, you were alluding to the fact that the industry is getting a little sharper about identifying.

breakouts at the quarterback position. Yeah. If you look at ADP over the last several years, I think this year was more solid as far as people finishing at or about where they're being drafted. The big outliers this year, Josh Allen, one of our breakouts finished eight spots above his average draft position. Aaron Rogers, nine spots above. And Ryan Tannehill, a player that we talked, we actually talked about these guys on last year's truth about

quarterbacks show too. These are the type of players, Kyler and Aaron Rogers and Tannahill that we're going to be talking about today, the people who maybe didn't finish as the top guys, but have a chance to do that next year based on what the real truth about them is. Yes. And so Tuesday's show had Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Aaron Rogers, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson, Ryan Tanahill, and Tom Brady. And we'll kick off today's with Justin Herbert.

So his consistency rank ended up at six, and his fantasy finish was ninth. And I think Herbert will be somebody in 2021. He finished the year 4,300 yards, 31 touchdowns, 10 interceptions. Super impressive. That's insane. He will be somebody that you're going to have to plant your flag on, though, with regards to what you believe about Justin Herbert. 67% of the time.

He gave you a good game. Busted only 13% of the time. Had the big time week winning performances, 33% of the time, great. Had number one overall finishes, number two finishes. Yeah, look, week four through 11, it was spectacular if you had Justin Herbert and you had the confidence to play him early in that run because it was really, really good. The back half of the year, you know, not the same numbers. And so you're going to have to plant your flag on what you believe about him.

in 2021. He's interesting to me because quarterback nine, you know, this sensational rookie breakout, but he feels like a quarterback that's going to be available near the double digit rounds to me. You guys might disagree with me, but like, you know, Alan Murray, we already went through these names of, of guaranteed six or seven guys that will go ahead of Herbert. And Jason's right.

you know, the fantasy football community is becoming wiser to the actual value of a single, of a quarterback in single quarterback leagues. That's what we're talking about. We're not talking about two quarterback super flex leagues. So I think that Herbert still will, will drop in the draft to a spot where the, you may have to plan a flag, but it might not have to be a monolith flag. It might just have to be, you know, just a.