Fantasy Time Machine + Jonathan Taylor Fallout - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/30

contributing in this offense. They have Pat Fryermuth at tight end, and you've got two wide receivers that are very good. So I think Deonté right now stands out as the player that goes late in drafts that all of a sudden, like if you just end up in a situation where maybe you did draft a quarterback in a tight end, because they dropped to you, and then you drafted some running backs. Like I legitimately have zero problem. Slotting Deontay Johnson is my wide receiver too on a draft where wide receivers just came late. Kenny Pickett, we've talked about it. He looks good. He's the highest graded quarterback this preseason in his limited playing time. Deonti targeted on 29% of his routes. He is a very, very good wide receiver who had a very outlier style year last season. Didn't score, which was insane. But you don't find wide receivers every day at wide receiver 35 that are guaranteed to get 120 targets in an offense.

If Deonti stays healthy, there's just no way he doesn't have that. So, you know, we had 147 last year. They were so low value receptions because he didn't end up in the end zone. I'm just very excited about picking him up late in drafts. It just feels like you stabilize your entire wide receiver core. If you've already taken a few, and like I said, you could sneak late and take a guy like this and end up with a home run. Yeah. Well, let me mention a guy who's going much later. Uh, then, uh, I'm glad it's not me. Then the other earmuffs, Mike, uh, earmuffs. Um, I'm going to throw Cortland Sutton's name into the mix. This is a player that has not been talked up, uh, by the fantasy community. Contractually, there is a reason why we, we have not talked him up. Yes. I mentioned his name and you probably are reminded of the specific.

trash can that you threw those dirty pants into those stinky dirty poopy pants oh no um you had to take that trash can and then you had to put it into a different trash can you had to put the trash can in a dumpster yeah that's how bad the mess was last year and i get it but i went back and i looked and to me there's there's a lot of cooper vibes here the first five weeks i don't know if you guys remember this because he had a terrible week one But then he was actually okay. He was averaging nine targets, 83 receptions, 12 and a half fantasy points per game. You go to week six, and he's sitting there as the wide receiver 14 in fantasy football. Now, for whatever reason, things fell apart. The entire Broncos offense was really that's what you were putting. That's the real.

poop that was in the pants was the Broncos offense and Russell Wilson and Nathaniel Hackett and Cortland Sutton I mean there was there was no goodness from the Broncos offense last year and it's rare for things to repeat in the NFL like changes are the normal in the NFL when you've got Sean Payton coming in and you've had really good camp reports of Cortland Sutton in fact like August 9th here's a report from Zach Stevens said today's practice was all about Russell Wilson, Cortland Sutton. Sutton caught every single pass thrown his way, including a 30-yard pass from Russ with Pat Sertain in great coverage, another catch with Damari Mathis all over him. They capped off the day with a short touchdown. He's had a good camp. And now we talked about Jerry Judy's injury. He probably won't be there week one. Maybe, maybe not. But that death chart at wide receiver.

It's him. And that's kind of what I was trying to think. Like Amari Cooper last year was the beneficiary of being the only dude. And obviously Jerry Jude is going to come back. We hope. But again, we saw it last year with Keenan Allen where when you're coming back from a really bad hamstring injury, which it appeared to be when he was carted off that late into camp, you're going to try to come back and you could reaggravate the issue. Cortland Sutton has a path to be a very relevant fantasy player. Nobody wants to. have him right now because of I don't the way that I yeah the way the last year went um but uh rich rebar good friend of the show had this tweet uh Sutton ran 183 routes last season with Jerry Judy off the field and on those routes 2.2 yards per route that's great 29.7% of team targets that's great 39.9% of air yards 23 and a half targets per route run like he was he was the dude so I think you're going to be able to get off

to a quick start if Jerry, Judy is off the field, just like Amari Cooper got off to a quick start. And then maybe trade away. Yeah, maybe. My worry with him is the history. You're going into year six with Coralind Slutton and we're still waiting for the package to get delivered. You know, when you check the tracking code and they're just like, I was supposed to get it today. And they're like it stuck at the facility. Oh, that tracking code. We're at the, it said it was delivered. Yeah, that's the one. That's the one. It says it was delivered. It says it was delivered. I'm doing laps around my house. There is just there. And I left a picture of the delivery, but it was just my front door. Yeah. There was nothing there, right? I look, the problem there is I love. I love those target for outrun, air yard, all those numbers, except for they didn't result in production. The production did not connect to those numbers. That's the part that freaks me out.

But right now you are, you are limited in your options there. And so to me, it's the if then this, if then, if this, then that of Peyton, Russ improving. Then I think those other numbers can translate. And look, for what you have to invest in him, throw that dart. Chuck that dart. And the hamstring injury for Judy, we can be enthusiastic about his early return. But then will there be another return and another? Like Judy has been... It could be way worse. I mean, wasn't he hurt as a rookie? And then he was hurt last year. And so we've... That package hasn't been delivered either. Let's put it that way. I need to change shipping companies. Denver needs a new... With Denver. You had the three solid games at the beginning of the year. And then you had the two games that Jerry Judy missed last year, Weeks 11 and 12. And it wasn't...

spectacular, but Cortland Sutton had over 10 points in a half point scoring format both of those weeks. Like that's 10 points. I'll take that. All right. I'm jumping in here because this, my vibes, this is a very vibe pick for me because last year, Amari Cooper, I believe my quote was, he could be great, he could be terrible, and I'm just, I don't, I don't care. Like, I was so willing to be wrong on Amari Cooper. uh if if he comes out and he has a great season and he had a really great season to start and i still was like yeah i i knew this was possible i just didn't want to go in on it and that's where i am with the andre hopkins who is now on the tennessee titans an older player a player who has historically been great for fantasy football

He's the number one, easily the number one target on the team. He's going right around that same area. You know, right now in the back of the fifth on Sleeper, the wide receiver 20. He's only 31. It's not necessarily the end. The probability is against him, but we do have a couple guys in their age 31 season. Emmanuel Sanders was top 20 in points per game. Julio, of course, and. It's me, Jason. Adam Thiele, when I was a young spry 31, I was the wide receiver 16. Do you remember those days? The good old days. I wish I could go back in my own time machine. Last year, Hopkins, average nearly 11 targets per game. He's so much younger than you. He's so much younger than you, Mike.

Not in my heart. No. Not in football players. Not on the field. Last year Hopkins got insane volume. I don't expect it to be. Can I change my pick to Adam Thielen for this category? Oh, please do. He's starting for me in a dynasty league, so I have to believe. But DeAndre Hopkins, and I just, I can see the path for him to be very solid. I can see the path for it to like all the Tennessee Titans arguments of like, no, it's not a great season for Hopkins. And I just. I'm really indifferent on him, whereas at his ADP, and that's where Cooper was for me last year. Which is funny there, Mike, is that you were indifferent about Omari Cooper, but that was a mistake, right? Yeah. So are you going to remedy the mistake? No, I will remain indifferent about DeAndre Hawkins. Okay, that's kind of the message I got there is that you're going to just, they say you learn from your mistakes.

Oh, the foot plan learns from Mike's mistakes. Mike's mistakes. Mike remains in them so you can learn from the exact. I told you this is a very vibe heavy pick. All right. Yeah. I mean, I get it. Trailing Burke's supposed to be back pretty soon. I have been staring down DeAndre Hopkins in drafts. And I acknowledge that like I could have a gold mine. And have you, but I could also regret it. Have you drafted him in many places? No, I took Deonté Johnson instead. legitimately those are i was looking at both of those and i went with the younger player i would go dante johnson as well all right let's find twenty twenty three's josh jacobs who was drafted as the rb 22 and he was number one in standard scoring talk about an absolute steel

I don't have the numbers of like most common player on championship teams in front of me, but I know Josh Jacobs was involved in that equation. I think he was the highest. There you go. I mean, when you get the RB1 and standard scoring, the RB3 and half point in the late fourth round where Brooks was keeping that torch burning for Josh Jacobs. And he ran for 1653 rushing yards. That's stealing. And that changes your entire roster because you've already drafted. high draft capital players, hopefully well. To me, this is Damien Pierce. This is Damien Pierce of the Houston Texans. He is going at RB 18 right now, so close to that RB 22 range. I watched enough Damian Pierce last year to, honestly, there's some similarities to the way that Josh Jacobs ran between the tackles, broke tackles, and the way Damien Pierce runs. Violent. He's just a ferocious eater of souls.

I'll say, Damien Pierce is so far and away the best running back in Houston. That has become very plain and very clear in the fact that he plays every single snap with the starters. He ran eight routes. There could be some doors opening on that side. The biggest difference between Pierce and Jacobs, if you look at the time machine and what could happen is you need to. involve yourself more in the passing game. But Damien Pierce will have an opportunity to do that. If he's in on all three downs and they don't have the Rex Burkhead, third down, I don't know, concession that they were doing last year, he is a very, very talented player. He came out and talked about how many routes he's running in this offense, this new offense now, and the fact that he went to lose some weight so that he could be more of a participant in the passing game. I like that.

I think Damien Pierce might end up being in contention to lead the league in rushing. And that's what Josh Jacobs did last year. So that's where I'm at. Yeah, if you weren't in the dock first, I probably would have gone Damian Pierce. I'm so in on Damian Pierce. draft a value based on what we've seen in the preseason. The only weird thing is if you look at last year with Josh Jacobs, it was the utilization in the preseason that made us go, I don't want to touch Josh Jacobs at all. So that's where it's a little bit opposite there. The player that I want to bring up is based upon the fact that Josh Jacobs got everything. He was good, very good in his own right. I don't want to take anything away from how electric he was on the field.

But the reason that he was, you know, an absurdly good fantasy option is because of the total amount of touches he got. They didn't utilize anyone else in the backfield. We went in thinking, oh, it blew our minds. We thought Brandon Bolden. They brought Brandon Bolton over, you know, he's, he's that coach's favorite guy coming from the other system. He's going to catch the ball. You got Amir Abdullah, ooh, you know, Zim, you know, a rookie is going to, this is a messy backfield. And it turns out. All those guys are unused. They barely were on the field. And when I look at depth charts around the NFL, Kyron Williams, Zach Evans, Ronnie Rivers, and Matt Colburn to me say that, yeah, that says that Cameron, Mr. Akers is going to have an enormous workload on his shoulders. I think this is a volume play.

I've been drafting him in live drafts over the last couple of days where he's going right now in the sixth round. It doesn't cost you that much to gamble. He's the running back 22. Probability says he's going to be an okay fantasy asset. But around that range, there's very few guys that you can. see a clear path towards being like a top six, a real breakout player. And I see that for Cameron. I've talked about him recently, but he reminds me in those ways of Josh Jacobs. I think that he could be that league winning type of pick. The difference I see for Cameron is just how we both view Kyron Williams. And I get that we don't have a ton of production on the field for Kyron Williams, and it's all speculation.

But the fact that there was chatter after week one when Williams got hurt that, no, he was going to, he was a huge part of the plan all along. We just weren't allowed to talk about it. So I think the Kyron Williams, I like the Cameron Acres pick, but I think that Kyron could factor in more than you're anticipating. Right. But that's Brandon Bolden. That's what we thought of Brandon Bolden last year. That's what I'm saying. Like, Kyron Williams is Brandon. You're saying kind of just accept things at face value. There's nobody to compete with him. Yeah. Don't speculate about maybe and just take what's on the plate. Exactly right. All right. I'm jumping in my pick. It is Alexander Madison of the Minnesota Vikings. Look, the vibes. I'm going down with this ship. I'm going, everyone's like grab a lifeboat. And I'm like, I want to hit the bottom of the ocean. I really do. And what I like about this pick are the vibes of they aren't you like.

They aren't overwhelmingly positive. You know, he became the starting running back for the Minnesota Vikings, and he's landed in the sixth round as the running back 21 because there, you have people like me. People on my side, and then you have people on Andy's side of, well, he's going into year five. He's never really made an impact on a field. Like he couldn't, even with Daval Cook being older, Madison couldn't really get himself on the field. We have some history of him taking over for Dalvin Cook. You have eight career games with 15 opportunities. Most of those were when Dalvin Cook was out. He averaged nearly 17 fantasy points per game in that time. That's fantastic output. And you could say, well, look at the teams that he was playing. He played the Lions in a lot of those games. Well, he's still going to be playing the Lions because he's still in that same division. The point was just when Madison has seen opportunity, he's come through for fantasy football.

And last year's Minnesota Vikings was very different. Last year, Daval Cook ran the third most routes among running backs. He was used as a true workhorse running back. And this is me looking at the depth chart behind him, where I think that Kyron Williams got, I've heard him talked up as, you know, as a potential backup. The Minnesota Vikings in this off season, everything was, well, Madison's the guy. Who is possibly going to be the number two in this backfield? It seems that Ty Chandler has won that job. Yes. But the point was through most of camp, they had no idea. And then Ty Chandler had that one preseason game where he really showed out, and I think that's how we got the job. But Madison has been treated like the locked-in guaranteed starter as in not being used in the preseason. Alec Lewis, a beat reporter for the Minnesota Vikings for the athletic.

On the athletic football show, he said, quote, from the outset, Kevin O'Connell and the Minnesota Viking staff are very committed to Alexander Madison being the guy even talked up the pass catching opportunities that Madison is getting. Because if he's going to get goal line, which the depth chart would signal that. And if he's going to actually get the pass catching, this is an outrageous deal for a high-powered offense getting their starting running back in the sixth round. So. The nice thing about Madison is either when the ship either sails, like it turns into a cruise ship and the fantasy points are plenty, I'm going to be on there with my free beverages or, and then Andy will be at the bottom of the ocean, or I will be in Davy Jones locker because I just was wrong on Madison. It is really tough because this feels like I don't believe in the talent of the player. I don't think he's a top halfback at all.

but his opportunity looks secure. Yes. So it is really challenging because it's kind of how I end up never drafting Najee. It's because Najee to me has never really impressed me. However, he's had seasons of value because he just gets every opportunity. Madison feels like Minnesota Najee to me. And I could be caught in a bad situation. But here's the thing, if that's the case, if Najee, if what you know about Najee, If he was going in the sixth round, even you have to. Even you would be on top of that. Of course. Yeah. And if Naji. You'll be happy to know I stared Naji down and won a couple of our drafts this past week. And I moved that mouse over that button. You thought about it. I didn't do it, of course. And if Naji were playing for the Minnesota Vikings and Kirk Cuzz is that offense that you expect to be better. Yeah, he's much better than Madison. That's a good point. That is true.

I don't care. I know, I know. We need, you've got to have one team, Mike, with Jacob Dobbins and Madison is your two starters. So I can watch from afar and be your best, buddy. That is, I mean, that is like just you print out that sheet of your roster. You soak it in kerosene and you just see what happens. You leave it near a candle. Yeah. Yeah. Not, not, you know. And honestly, you should, you should, we should buy a Nerf hoop. And you should get one of those mini trampolines. And you should dunk as hard as possible right on me if both those players come through because I am a stubborn man. All right. Let's find 2023's Gino Smith undrafted by everybody. Not only undrafted by everybody, but he ruined the value of Metcalf and Lockett in people's eyes. Ends up leading the league in completion percentage. 30 plus passing touchdowns. A quarterback five finish. That's insane. But it's.

It's what happened. So it's a little inflated due to the. Well, he didn't get hurt. That's what I mean. If he didn't get hurt, a lot of other quarterbacks did. In a regular year, he would not have been the quarterback five, but last year he was. Let's go with my pick for this year's Gino Smith, which is a player drafted a year after Gino Smith. Send in the car. Send in the car. Derek Carr, quarterback for the probable. Division champs, the Norland Saints. I was making the comment to Jason, and this means nothing. But Derek Carr looks as cut as he's ever looked. I was going to bring it up that this man, he spent his offseason not throwing a football. He spent his off season only doing curls. I mean, he is in great shape. I think he has a... He's yoked right now. I think he has a chip on the shoulder from the departure, a competitive chip, not a...

misguided, angry in the, you know, he said a lot of positive things about his time in Las Vegas, but it was time for a new, to turn over a new league. And quarterback 24, been there, done that with Derek Carr. We've seen it for year after year after. You feel like he's eternally doomed to be outside the top 12. Look, so far he has been. Gino Smith had two lives, the live before and the live after. Life after. And I think the stars. Just like Miley. I think the star, just like Miley. Yeah, good point. I think the stars might align this year. I think our confidence in the weapons in this offense, you're going to have Derek Carr with some equipment. You know, Chris Oliva, Michael Thomas, Alvin Camara coming back, Kendra Miller and Jamal Williams, and a very, very beatable set of teams in this division. And I think Derek Carr could have a lot of.

impressive performances. He also has a bunch, like a whole stable of touchdown scoring tight-ins. Juan Johnson, who I've thrown onto my watch list on Sleeper every single time I draft just in case I want to punt to the last round, Taysam Hill and Jimmy Grandpa and Foster Moreau. Wow, you included Jimmy Grandpa. Yeah, because he's going to score five times. Did we talk about his Jimmy Graham's preseason game on this show? No. Dude. What? Jimmy Graham, what are you? Dude, pull up the footage and watch Jimmy Graham look like vintage Jimmy Graham at his age 78 season. Like, it is, it was, I mean, that had to have been it. That had to been all the gas he had left in the tank. He used it in that one match. Aren't we surprised about the age? Well, how actually young he is. Yeah, I'm watching, I'm watching the clip, the touchdown clip here. Dude. Because that's all he does is.

Yeah, he boxes out and scores. I am not surprised by his age. He's 36. Wait, he is? Yes. All right. I'm not surprised. Oh, my gosh. How old was Antonio Gates during the final productive seasons? Figure that out for me. Probably right around there. But the weapons are solid. And look, a player like Crystal Lave and all those other peripheral weapons, I think Derek Carr could have a very surprising year. Although I like both your picks more for the comp. Yeah, the comp. My comp for him is uncanny. It is, he has so much in common. A highly drafted quarterback who flamed out and was a bust. Then he's just in a camp battle where you start the off season, assuming it's going to be the other guy that's the starter, but he wins and looks good in camp. And he's got two great wide receivers. Oh, that's exact. In, you know, D.K. Meck and Tyler Lockett or.

Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Baker Mayfield is this year's Gino Smith. He's looked very good. He's surprised everybody. And kind of like I talked about with Gino and Miley, I don't think Baker's a bad quarterback. We make fun of Baker a lot because, well, It's fun. It's low-hanging fruit. You want the apple near the bottom. It's delicious. I don't want to get on a ladder. No. Or get that pole thing? Yeah, no. Just let me. We're too old for that. Let me grab. I want to be able to eat it without touching, without using my hands. Just go right up. Like bobbing? Yeah, like bobbing for apples, just grab it. And that's, you know. Baker is the most perfect pick. He has every opportunity to come out here and, you know, restore his career.

He's got great weapons to do it with. What was he like 15 of 16 in the preseason? Like you talk, can he pick? It gets all the praise for the preseason, but Baker was like almost perfect. Yeah, Baker was fantastic in the preseason. Similar to Gino, he's completely undrafted. Like what's his ADP on sleeper? He doesn't have it. He's not drafted. So far, just so you know, 14 for 15, 106 yards, two touchdowns, 89 PFF passing grade on 15 passes. Yeah, yeah. So. You brought up some stats, Andy, when you were talking about Mike Evans. You're my guy that matches very well with Baker's skill set. What Baker does well, Mike Evans does well. So those things could work tremendously. He also is a check-down quarterback. He basically checks it down or chucks it deep. And with- Oh, a check-or-chuck. A check-a-chuck. And with Rashad White, they're a capable check-down guy. You know, he did it with Brady. I think Baker could.

really surprise and be a good quarterback this year. If I'm in a two quarterback league, I'm targeting Baker as my third quarterback. All right. I like it. That one is, that one's spot on. By the way, we haven't even talked about it, but Mike Evans did miss the final preseason game due to, uh, and I just check, I just check groin index.com and he is a member. Oh, no. He's on there. But he did say like the, um, his head coach came out and said he would be. playing if it was a regular season game, but it didn't make me feel any better. That's part of the Mike Evans experience. That's part of the Fantasy Reaper experience. That too. All right. I will lose it. My mind. I am jumping in. I was shocked when I got into the show doc that this was not Jason's pick. Just tell us when you need us to contribute. It was actually written in to my name before I got there, but Baker was just too perfect. Go on. Which is fair. But this one, go on. It is.

Sam, how. Oh, yeah, we got the triple how. The wolf pack is in effect. I think he's going to be good. I just watched every one of his preseason opportunities. I think he's going to be a good player. I think there is a very strong chance. Welcome aboard, gentlemen. I think there is a very strong chance that Sam Howell is actually a top 12 quarterback. Can we get a deuce or how? Oh, yeah. Hey, boys, you want to try it out? Let's try it out. There we go. On three, one, two. Three. All right. We had like multitones and everything. Beautiful. So here's the deal. Downfield passing. That was one of the reasons that Gino Smith was so successful last year. Looking at the Washington situation. Last year, dead last in first half pass rate. Meanwhile, Kansas City was number one. And that's Eric B. NME is coming in. He's the new offensive coordinator. Granted, of course. Everyone is screaming, yeah, but Patrick Mahomes.