Fantasy Football - Too Hot To Handle + Risk vs Reward - Podcast for 6/25

You want that you're going to bet on in your draft, because if if he takes a jump, it's going to be a big time jump. And change fantasy football. Can I ask you guys to grab your little notepads for a second? All right. And I want you to tell me what percentage chance you think he finishes QB six or better. Six or better. Just to kind of because if you draft him at QB six, to be clear, you're going to have to start him every week. Let me just got to remind myself where I have everybody else. QB six or better.

Yeah, I know. It's a tough number. Well, I'll be I think I'm generous here. I think I'm being generous, too. And it's really low. Go ahead and reveal your number, Jason. I've got him at twenty nine percent chance of finishing in the 20. Mike, what do you go with one? I went thirty five. Yeah. So I was generous. Like I do think like everything that is surrounding Caleb, all you need is. The erratic play to, you know, give way to a more consistent week in week out offense. And it will be there last year. He threw twenty seven touchdowns. He threw for almost four thousand yards while having a fifty eight percent completion percentage.

That's disgusting. That is disgusting. And that it works both ways. You can be like, look, this guy is not consistent enough, not accurate enough. Or you can take the look and say there is a very easy thing that he can fix that consistency. If he just gets more on the same page with his receivers, keep in mind his receivers are very young. The receiver that he didn't seem to be on the same page with the most was D.J. Moore. He's gone. And now those targets go to young, getting better receivers who have everything you want. The size, the athleticism, the breakaway speed and talent.

So you've got the offense, the offensive line system like it's you can see how it happens. And if it happens, it's it's phenomenal. I will say that his rushing yards went down from year one. And I think that if he does take a step forward as a passer, more consistent, it's great for the Bears. Great for him. Still good for fantasy. I do worry that it comes as at a sacrifice of the rushing yardage that maybe he's just better in the pocket. Does not need to run that much. Still run for 300 yards. But that's 83 yards last year, which is like that's solid.

That's not game changing. Right. But it was almost 500 rookie year. Right. Yeah. So is QB six too hot to handle? I think so. Yeah. Because it's why I wanted to go look real quick. You got Allen, Lamar, Jaden Burrow. Drake may Jalen hurts is like. Is he in, you know, there will be the of course, the fantasy football. Oh, man. This guy, you know, like last year's Jane Daniels just got hurt. It wasn't happening. But to for me in my with my draft capital to make the bet that Caleb is going to be better than all of those guys is.

It's not a it's not a move I can make right now. I will say when you take Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and I won't put Jane Daniels there, but Joe Burrow, you put those those three guys. He's not going to beat those guys. I think that that's just out of the realm of possibility. You included Jaden? No, just no. Just just Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow. Then he is probably in that tier with those next guys with Jaden Daniels, with Jalen Hurts, with Drake, Jackson Dart, because he rushes so much. And then you look at it and you go, does he belong in that tier?

Probably. So maybe six is not really that hot to handle. I don't know. Yeah, that's I'm excited for the potential breakout here. And if he could just dial in your draft, if he was he's my quarterback nine in my rankings, if he were to slip, I might pull the trigger on him. The issue I have with that is I'm kind of all in on Jackson Dart, who goes later in drafts. And so pull it. Some of this is always opportunity cost. So even if he slips, I'm still once you take a quarterback early, not that you can't use a pick on a really late quarterback like a Tyler Shuck and hope that he takes a step forward.

But I'm probably not going to also grab a Jackson Dart. You might not. I mean, they're pretty close together right now. If it didn't move on sleeper, Jackson Dart is going ahead of Caleb. Oh, really? Yeah. Seven eleven versus eight oh seven. So it's not on almost the same pick. Not on underdog. Are you in with Dart thinking about it? What about those teams where you get Rome? Oh, sure. Yeah. I mean, if I if I going wrong, absolutely. And I think ADP wise, it makes it seems like it would make sense. You could go Rome and then take Caleb with your next.

Yeah. If I had Rome and I'm staring down Dart or or Caleb, I would take Caleb. I would want the stack. All right. Next name up on the too hot to handle list. Jeremiah Love. Right now, the running back eleven to oh six on sleeper was the third overall pick. We've done some digging and this is where things get crazy. So. Here are the ADPs of any running back drafted in the top ten of the NFL draft since 2015. So that is Saquon Barkley. His ADP was the seventh pick. So that's how I'm going to lay it out. OK. Seventh pick for fantasy.

All right. Right. Saquon went number seven in fantasy. Zeke and Bijon went number eight in fantasy. Gentie last year went 10. Jeremiah Love sitting at 206. Christian McCaffrey went to 12. Trent Richardson went 302. Fournette went 303. And Todd Gurley went 512. Well, he had the ACL. Right. But what's wild about that is that all of them, 100 percent of them, finished as a fantasy football running back one. Even Gentie last year. Big disappointment. Yeah. Two, two, nine, twelve, eleven, eight, eight, seven. So on the back end, for the most part, if you're not Saquon or Zeke. But keep in mind, Jeremiah Love, other than Barkley going at two overall, that's the highest draft capital spent on a running back other than Trent Richardson.

Of all those names. And to me, you know, put two and two together. Gentie went to a bad team last year, went at 110. Love is now going to a bad team with a higher draft pick that we all like as a prospect more than Gentie. And is going at 206. So to me, this is a very difficult decision. I don't want it to all be hinging on what Gentie let people down with. Because this is a different player and a different situation. But the fact that you're what? You're 10 for 10? Wait. One, two, three, four, five, six. Okay.

Eight for eight. As a quarterback one. Is the risk really that bad? Well, you're younger. You're not getting hurt. These guys didn't get hurt. Yeah. Gentie and Bijon was a disappointment. Based off of like where he was running back three and he finished as the running back nine. Right. So you didn't get a good return. You didn't get a good return. But I mean, one commonality between all these names is that they played. Right. Which is not necessarily something predictive for running backs very often. But these rookies are playing. They're not missing time. You look at some of the older guys that you're taking.

Sorry. They average 20 opportunities a game. Sorry. Yeah. I mean, you look at Saquon Barkley in drafts. You look at Christian McCaffrey in drafts. You look at Derrick Henry in drafts. Those, if you had to say who's going to get injured between those guys or a Jeremiah Love, the older guys have, you know, more likelihood of not necessarily getting injured, but having a struggle once they get injured at an older age. The situation, though, is my issue. I think that the Cardinals team is better than the, not, I'm sorry, not the team. The Cardinals offense is better than the Raiders offense was last year.

The Cardinals offensive line, while not great, much better than what the Raiders offensive line was last year. If we're comparing Jeremiah Love here to Ashton Gentry. The issue I have is the running back room. The running back room for the Raiders last year was Ashton Gentry and a pile of pee. It was just, you're going to pile. A pile. It's a slippery little pool. That's Raheem Mostert you're talking about. A pile? That's 48-year-old Raheem Mostert. You just keep being on the same spot. No. That's not a, that's a puddle. Yeah, well, some people, you know, tomato, tomato. Get this man checked out if he's piling up his pee.

Yeah. Is it a solid? Yeah. All right, go on. So, my worry with Jeremiah Love, and I think he's going to be more of a second half player, is, I mean, we've all seen the press conferences. We've watched the coaches talk about it. We've seen the players talk about it. We've seen Jeremiah Love himself talk about it. There is no need, desire, or rush for this team to make Jeremiah Love the bell cow. The get 350 touches your rookie season, and I don't think that's going to happen with him. And most of these other situations, there was a little bit more clarity on they are the only dude.

This was a team that was desperately in need of a running back, therefore they took him. Cardinals weren't in need of a running back. They had James Conner. They paid for Algier, and then they just still took one. So, that's my issue. I am not opposed to drafting Jeremiah Love where he's going. I do think the first half of the year you're going to be disappointed. I agree with some of what you're saying. I'm finding myself moving further away from any concern. The irony is we had literally B. John Robinson going into a situation with the same Tyler Algier. James Conner is of no concern to me whatsoever.

I don't even know if he's going to be on the roster when the season begins. But 206 right now is not too hot for me to handle. And the fact that every single one of these guys has been an RB1, and the price for Jeremiah Love is on the lower end of the spectrum of these guys. I mean, I remember people having conversations about Gentry last year and the depth of that running back room and who might play. I think we always, like, you spent the third pick in the draft. And I think three plays in, we're all going to say the same.

Like, we were really, truly disrespectful to Tyler Algier because of B. John. The same way we're disrespectful to David Montgomery because of Gibbs. And to me, it's going to be the same way we're disrespectful to Algier, again, because of love. The difference in capability and what they bring to an offense. Arizona is playing, I say it every year, they're playing for this year. That is what they're doing. They're playing to win. Brand new head coach. Delusional owner. They play for the year that's ahead of them. They have, that's what drives a defensive player to come out and when, or an offensive player to come out in Arizona when Miles Garrett is added to the Rams and say, he's got to deal with us.

He's got to deal with us over here in Arizona. Wait, who said that? Oh, the Cardinals did. Yeah. I'm saying who? Kyle can. Okay. Kyle will have it in five seconds. I just want to know because I think that. You got to deal with us in Arizona. That's Mack Wilson. Okay. I mean. Watch out, Rams. Yeah. They got to go through us. It's stupid. Yeah. But listen, to me, I think Love will, maybe it's a start. Let me challenge you a little bit on this because there's three running backs going behind him that I think will score more fantasy points than him this year.

Name them. Chase Brown, Josh Jacobs, and Derrick Henry. I think those three players score more fantasy points. I think that they might. But I think that those are three really perfect names to be like, well, I could see going Love. Sure. I mean, Jacob, if you just want, the Jacob situation is not completely done. We don't have a stamp on it. We don't know. Henry's old. Henry's older. And when you're, maybe you're in a keeper league or a dynasty league and you're thinking about it that way. And then Chase Brown, like, Chase Brown is a lot about, a lot of it is his situation.

Yes. As the offense goes, Chase Brown will go. Yes. And so I don't mind that. That one might be safer. But at the same time, what's safer than top 12? That's the part that's kind of getting me here is it's like, are those other three guys guaranteed to be a top 12? I would say probably. The hilarity of, Jay, what you were talking about, of the logic. They got to deal with us. Well, I'm saying taking the running back team, taking the running back at three. So it's a superstar player. So I was like, they should get as many touches as they possibly can.

But he's a running back. And the team is not going to compete this year. So you don't want to overload him with work. Right. But then why? That's why I don't think that's a real philosophy for any team. So it's just, it's funny because I agree with it. Like, Love should be getting the vast majority of the work. But you're also getting Algiers like 12 million bucks. Every one of these players was drafted by a terrible team. That's something you need to remember. Every one of them was drafted by garbage teams. Right. And every single one of them gave their rookie 20.7 opportunities a game.

And if Jeremiah Love wasn't a pass catcher, maybe we have a different conversation. Yeah, he has a superpower. He has a couple of them. Yeah. He is phenomenal. I don't want to swing all the way into the gente hype. And, you know, even more than that, I mean, I guess the highest anybody's ever been drafted was 107. Saquon, Saquon as a rookie. I feel like we really tried to repeat Saquon with Bijan. And then people, people left Bijan's rookie season feeling like the gente season. Yeah, for sure. That's what Mike said. And it was Algier that made you feel that way.

So it is possible. I think around the goal line, if he doesn't get the goal line work, you could be disappointed. Officially, I'm going to say it's not too hot to handle. Where he's going in drafts right now, you can make an argument for him. Where would be that line? Where would be the line? Is it just a pick or two higher? Yeah, it's basically the first round. I'm not taking him in the first round. If he's creeping up there like some of these other backs have been, I don't see. Because I do not think that it's in the realm of possibility for him to finish the year as a top six back.

Like that, that is not, I don't think he's going to have enough touchdowns on this team with the other running backs on the roster. The offensive, you know, system, the fact that he's not guaranteed 350 plus touches. He's not going to be a top six back. Yeah, I think you're probably right there. Because the two guys that actually did that, they weren't like pushing 300. It was 382 for Saquon in opportunities. And 362 for Zeke. Yeah, they came in and they just got everything from moment one. If I remember it right, that was like the Cowboys were good. And then they just had a really down year.

Am I remembering that right, Kyle? Because Zeke went, the offensive line was great. Yeah, that was the part of the team. Like Zeke was walking right into a top three offensive line. Well, I think that was when Dak came out of nowhere. Yeah. Oh, was it? Yeah, so they found Dak at the same time as finding Zeke, I think. Like, I think Love is a really interesting discussion. I think he'll beat Gentty's points from last year. Yeah. Which would make him, it's not too hot. But I'm with Jason. It's like, you know, Chase Brown for sure. I'd rather have him over Love.

And then Jacobs, if all the Jacobs stuff, if that's locked up and you know it, maybe I should use a different phrase. If it's in jail. Yes. If it's cleared. If there is no wrongdoing, then I think Jacobs will outscore Love. So, yeah. We'll take a break and we'll come back with a name that I'm really excited to talk about at the wide receiver position. All right, Foot Clan, whether you are on the go or at home, T-Mobile, well, they're built to keep you connected wherever you're scouting your fantasy team. And that on-the-go part, that is important. With America's Best Network, you'll be connected to the latest news and player projections.

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results for the second half of 2025. The best mobile network in the U.S. is based on analysis by Ookla of speed test intelligence data second half of 2025. All right. The next player for too hot to handle is George Pickens. George Pickens. Oh, gosh. It was weird because I went to make a trade offer for George Pickens today. Oh. And I couldn't figure out where to click in terms of my draft pick offer. I just couldn't. Oh. I don't know. Compensation? Yeah, because we've talked about Pickens quite a bit. So, you know, we don't have to talk about him forever.