Fantasy Football - Top 10 TE Rankings + Draft Strategy - Podcast for 8/1

at the edge of the top 10, Mike hasn't buried at 15. Yeah. Even after this Isaiah likely news, which I did make some tweaks. I think you said that too, Jay. So did I. You moved him up to 15. I did. So this is, I mean, I think that's really interesting because Mike has always been in Mike and Mark go way back. Well, Jason, I, I equate Mark ages as Jason's guy. But I do. You know what? Maybe I'm thinking of you drafting him over McBride. McBride last year. Yeah, yeah. Yep. That would be it. Oh, man. I already had Marvin Harrison, by the way. Those people are out of... You want the people to know. I just out of context that for... Sounds real bad. The way I talk about Trey McBride, that sounds horrifically bad. You did already have Marvin Harrison. That is true. And I bet you wish you had two cardinals. Oh, very much so. My year would have gone a lot different. So Mark Andrews year last year was really... You want to use stupid. This is a good...

opportunity it was a stupid year i mean it started out as bad as it gets his targets they have been going down opportunities catches per game and yet he salvaged all of it mark andrew was one of the best waiver wire pickups last year i mean that's that's actually true because he was pretty darn i'm having to zoom in on the screen to see these points 2.4 0 and 0 for two of the three of the first four games yeah After that, you had a stretch run where he was extremely consistent. Last year, he finishes the Titan 5. You remember how bad it was to start the season. Back-to-back gooses. The world was over after a week one collapse. It was like Mark Andrews was just completely evaporated from fantasy football. He will never be relevant again. And then he went on the rest of the season and had an awesome fantasy season. The issue that we have, and it is true, is almost.

All of it. It's so much. The vast majority came from touchdowns, which are not a sticky stat. He had his own career high. Was it 11? 11, yeah. I think the next highest tight in last year had eight. And so you just go, well, he is a touchdown machine, and you expect Lamar to throw a lot of touchdown. So that's great. There's a good place for Mark Andrews. He doesn't cost as much this year. However, you have to assume it's going to regress. He didn't even have 900 receiving yards. Every touchdown with 10 plus touchdowns and fewer than 900. receiving yards they all have massive regression that you go with 900 you could have gone with 800 you could have gone with 700 that's true but the statistic of regression a second he said that i'm like what i started looking up his yardage number because i was like did he get to almost 800 there's i think a couple things to remember with mark andrews is you know he was when this season last season started

He was coming off of the, what the, breaking his ankle. He had the, you know, he was the victim of a hip drop tackle, busted his leg. He got in a car wreck right before the season started. So like those are, you know, we look at these guys as superheroes and that they can do anything and injuries are nothing. They bounce right back. So that, maybe that was far more of a factor than we wanted to give credit to. My biggest issue with Mark Andrews is, it dude it's vibes like the way that they were talking about him the whole off season of essentially like well he's he was a threat to be gone he's on the team right now like it was just it was so bizarre the the whispers in the bushes of an Isaiah likely extension coming up which has not happened and and likely is of course hurt so and Harbaugh talking about how he expects likely to be an all pro right like this year so it for me honestly it was the

It wasn't that I was trying to trash Mark Andrews, and I'm not elevating Isaiah likely. It was, I think that what the most likely existence of these two tight ends is they, one will have a good game here, one will have a good game here, and you're never really happy with either of them. Now, if likely misses time at the beginning of the year, then Mark Andrews would be sensational in all those games because he will play all the snaps and he will be. just dominating the middle of the field. He was 20th in the NFL and targets at the tight-in position. 20th. Yeah, that's... He was 14th in receptions. So it was touchdowns. It was just, it was... And he'd done that once before, you know, where he had a big, you know, low, total reception, high touchdown season, right? Like he did it in 2019. He had 64 catches, but had 10 touchdowns and that vaulted him up there. Look, it's just a lack of confidence in...

It's going to be one of those rides every single week when Andrews is in there where you're like, I hope he scores. Would it change your draft day decision if likely, if it seemed like, you know, we're at the draft. It's, you know, a week or two from football and it looks like likely is probably going to miss the first two or three weeks. I was going to say, if you give me three weeks. Because I feel like that would change. And I would certainly take. I would take the shot then because what if there is some, you know. What if he can get it going a little bit more on the target count? The problem is that they do. I mean, they just have, it's a different team than when he was at his best for them, right? They just gave Bateman a big contract. You mentioned likely. They're predicated on, you know, Derek Henry's a big motor in this offense. They have a good defense. They have Zay Flowers. They have DeAndre Hopkins. They added this off season. So he's just not as necessary as he once was. And the last point. And he's older. He's going to be 30. My final point for him is just how.

efficiency was where last year he had 15 targets in the red zone he had 11 red zone or touchdowns like that is all of his touchdowns were red zone yeah and but I'm saying it should act like two point conversions like are for touchdown easy easy but like the year before 14 targets. Oh man. Did you catch up there. Yeah. So 15. Not efficient on two point conversions. 15 targets turned into 11 touchdowns. The year before that, 14 targets turned into six. The year before that, 18 turned into five. Like maybe it's the Derek Henry effect of like the defense has to be so worried about that that the efficiency went through the roof. But there's so many markers to be nervous about Mark Andrews. Number eight.

All right, we talked about him quite a bit on the last episode. Evan Ingram was on the Unsolved Mysteries episode. He is older than Mark Andrews, and he comes in at eight on our rankings, eight, nine, and nine when you look at where we have them individually ranked. So we talked a lot about Evan Ingram, the big story here. It's going to be a great target for Bo Knicks. Well, that, you know, not a huge per catch kind of guy, but a very good PPR option. I took him in a full PPR draft. I like him a lot more. Yeah, that was the one thing I don't think we brought up well talking about Ingram on that episode was that it does make a difference to me if you're in a full PPR because his inefficiency, you know, his sub 10 yards per catch is not going to move the needle. But if you're getting a full point for every reception, he should be getting five, six receptions a game and has a tight end where he's going later in drafts. I do think.

I would, because I'm not really in on Evan Ingham, I would 100% pull the trigger full PPR. I think we all got to the point where, like, the cost just has to be better for Engram. He's sort of the most opposite of Mark Andrews, a player can be. Right. And the touchdowns and receptions. I mean, it's nice to see Camp Buzz that he was the favorite target of Bo Nix, right when they put the pads on. That's awesome to see. Five plus receptions a game last year. So it's PPR goodness. And this probably won't change things for you guys. But I did see a quote today. A player said he's going to be perfect in the Joker role for Sean Payton. The person who gave that quote, Adam Troutman. So if Adam Troutman is given the stamp of approval, you know it's good. I'll be honest. I thought maybe the head coach was saying that. No. I doubt it made me. You should have, I don't know if you followed along with the Sean Payton running back expose today. Every running back on that team is doing awesome.

Literally every running back. Find somebody that will work you into a podcast like Mike works Adam Troutman into a podcast. Yes. Because that means that's true love. That's true love. Number seven. David Najoku, who is our number seven tight in. I got him at six. These guys at seven, he is going into year nine as a 29 year old. And still every bit the physical force that he's always been. He proved, you know, last year or in 2023, and last year that he can be a focal point of an offense. You know, you look at the kind of fantasy football winning season he had in 2023. He was the tight-in on my championship team that year. He was better on a points-per-game basis last year, just missed time due to injuries. It's nice to see because there's a roulette at quarterback that happened all last year, and it's going to happen again this year, most likely, and he was still a dominant force. He's my second favorite target in all of...

fantasy fourth tight ends. Right now he is darn near a double digit pick because of the injuries last year, because of some of the question marks of quarterback, but it's not like he's been playing with great quarterback play. And like you said, Andy, he was better this last year than the year he brought you a championship. On a points per game basis, David Adjoku was the tight end four last year. It went George Kittle, Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, Najoku. And Najoku cost you jack squat. Go ahead and load up on running backs, load up on wide receivers. Take David Nogoku late and he's just as good as any of these other guys. Do you have to watch the Browns game? No, you don't have to watch. The points happen. Like the platforms now, they actually automatically put the points in. You don't have to watch. You don't have to know. Try it for it. So even what if the word comes out like, hey, can he pick it? He's our started. You would still be that gung-ho? I am still gung-ho. I don't think he is completely dependent. Obviously, if, if James was there.

I would prefer it to be flacko. I think those things would slightly elevate Najoku, but I believe that his role in the offense is secure and established by the last two years. So I think he's going to be necessary for the offensive system, whoever the quarterback is. His physicality does get him banged up. That would be the only other thing that I want to throw out there. He's been hurt quite a bit over the years. But he is definitely. As a ninth round pick, somebody that you can look at with top five upside, if things work out. And I would love it with Flacco. That's everything for me. We get the word that Joe Flacco. He gets close to the painted area. That's what he can do. But it doesn't matter. But it does matter to me because he wasn't great in the Watson games last year. He was terrible in them the year before. I guess it matters in the sense that if we assume they're keeping both rookies that they drafted on the roster.

then probably Pickett or Flacco aren't on the roster, in which case it would matter if Flacco wasn't on the roster. But my point is, one quarterback is not playing 17 games for Cleveland Browns. I just want touchdowns, was my point. I think Joe Flacco is the most capable of throwing him a pass in the painted spot. Yeah, I agree with that. Kenny Pickett did not, I think, Kenny Pickett literally set all-time records of not doing that in Pittsburgh. Correct. Is the only reason I'm in love with the Flacco upside of Najibu. Which. We, as far as I have seen, that is the route we are trending. We just don't know for sure that it's going to happen. Yeah, 55% of the time, good games last year. 15% great, 27% bust games. Just, like, James Winston. We have, we have David Njoker here. He had a week with 17 targets. Oh, James. James, James. James.

James had an interview the other day. A tight end over the course of three weeks would be stoked to have 17 targets. Did you guys see this James interview where they were talking about whether the NFL humbled him? Do you ever catch this? No, I didn't see that. I'm telling you, he gave, he gave either the dumbest or the most intelligent answer. Oh. In the history of football. And I can't. It's a thin line. And I can't tell the difference. I'm pretty sure I know which one it was. It was like. It was like every bit of James, like this long-winded answer about the NFL not humbling him because he didn't have, you know, his dream growing up was just to be in the NFL. It was not to like win a Super Bowl. It was like once you get there. That was the end of your dreams. I didn't dream big enough. Like if I had dream bigger dream to win the Super Bowl, but he just, you just can't take him seriously. You look at him talking seriously and there's, we've got Ducer's alley over here. We got one guy. Yeah. Over there in the corner. And you can see it right now. Smirky, this dude, the Falcon can't.

Can't go five minutes without smirking. That's how James talks. Yeah. If that guy right there, if the falcons started saying something important to me, you believe in that? Oh, you can't believe what he says with a giant smile on your face. You can't be a judge in a courtroom. Oh, you can't be smirk. Yeah. You're guilty with a giant smile. Wait, wait, wait, am I? Are you joking right now? Yeah. James is the, and that's what he is on the football field, which is hilarious. As a quarterback, he is the dumbest and smartest. Yeah. At the same time. All right. We'll move on. Number six. Very interesting name. Sam Laporta comes in at number six. We all have him. Well, Jason's the highest at number five. Mike at six. I'm at seven. I think I said something a couple shows ago or off the air about just like, I just don't see a world where Sam Laporta is not a really important part of this offense. I have been rising. I mean, we have to understand the emotions of fantasy. And when you come off a number one overall season as a rookie.

You put up an outlier touchdown number, and then you come back and lo and behold, you know, you're number seven. That's, you know, it was a tough start to the year. It got going late, but it was the worst first impression. That was like where I think I had been, you know, grasping on to what had happened with Sam LaPorta a little too long. The rookie, the rookie year was sensational. And then his ADP was. out of control. Like he felt like the easiest, uh, do not draft player of 2024 of taking, uh, a player who did what he did on the targets in the second round is like, do not, do not do this, do not do it. And then for the whole, you know, through week nine, he gave you a couple good games. So it was a complete slam dunk victory for the show of saying do not draft him.

But then the second half of the year, it was way, way better. I mean, to the point of 14 points, 8, 14, 12, 15 in the championship weekend. So do you, the question about Laporte is not as a good player. It's was that a, was that caused by the Detroit Lions defense falling off in the second half? And all of a sudden now they have to put up way more points. Look, they were an amazing offense. I think what it just comes down to is that his price is not. There's no real steel here happening with Sam Laporta. I think he's going to be a crucial part of the offense. Like if you look at when it mattered last year, weeks 11 through 17, he's the tight in five, right? Like he's outperforming the Mark Andrews run at the end of the year, David Najoku. He was that good, better than Kelsey. The problem is he's being drafted as the tight in four right now in the fifth round. Maybe in part because a lot of the old heads, like people are letting those guys fly by Andrews and Kelsey.

And Laporte is still exciting on a really good offense. But, you know, I just think from a value perspective, it's not there. From a performance perspective, I think it will be there. I think it'll be around 10 fancy points a game. So if he slipped, if I could get Sam Leporta in the sixth, late sixth round, I'm all over it. Yeah, I mean, I am the highest of the three of us statistically on Sam Leporta. draft strategy wise. I'm probably the lowest of the three of us on Sam Laporta. And in fact, I'm not going to bring up too much now because we're going to talk a little bit more in depth about him on Monday's episode. A little tease. That is a professional tease. Yeah. You want to tease it further? Is it going to be good stuff or bad stuff? Well, it'll be cold. It'll be on Tuesday. A little freezing. Well, then on Monday I can tease it again, Mike. You don't understand how deep I tease.

Number five. Travis Kelsey is number five, Mike. Yeah. And he is 60 years old of 60.1. No, he is almost 36 though. That's wild. That's too close to my age. You know what I mean? Yeah, yeah. It's just too close to my age to, I don't know what that means. I don't know if that means he shouldn't be playing. I think it means you should be playing or should have been able to play. But this is, this is quite the run. And what's even more crazy right now is that I think I'm kind of becoming more into first half of the season, Travis Kelsey, because, you know, Rashi Rice. Which we still don't have word on that about Rishi Rice. Yeah, we don't have the suspension figured out.

Hollywood Brown banged up again. Xavier Wither would be fine. He has a concussion. But you just look at the offense and everything coming out about Travis Kelsey is that he's in much better shape. He definitely lost quickness last year. You can say what you want about the disappointing season. He was still better than Sam Laporte on a per game basis over the course of the year. He ended up at tight-in six. But guess what? He's being drafted there now. Now he's a mid-seventh-round pick. Yeah. So it's a whole new discussion. He got a big bump when we're assuming that that rice will get a suspension and a decent one. But here we are, you know, at least at the time of this recording, we've not heard anything about it. And it's still just an assumption that it's going to happen. What, I guess the question then because what is your Kelsey outlook should the rice suspension not happen?

The rice suspension will happen. I think we need to approach it as it will happen. However, if it wasn't, my rice to me makes all the difference. What if it pops? Because they're in the same exact area of the field. They're the same like first read type of target that they often go to in that system. You look at the first three weeks when Rushie Rice demanded all those targets last year. Travis Kelsey comes out scores 4.9 points is the tight in 14. Next week, one fantasy point. Yeah, because Rice has the juice. The next week, five fantasy points. And then Rushie Rice gets injured.

Right after that, Travis Kelsey is the tight-in five, the tight-in seven, the tight-in four, the tight-in two, the tight-in one on a weekly basis. It was like, oh, okay, because that's where Patrick Mahomes throws the ball to. So I do believe that Rashi Rice will be suspended to start the year. It's not happened yet. I'm not the commissioner, so maybe it doesn't happen. I mean, six, seven games seems like it's an inevitability. Yeah, I'm not going to disagree with that, but it's like, because that's the whole conversation to me. Like, if right. When Rice, would it seem like the suspension was getting pushed to next year? Travis Kelsey was off of my draft board. So let's say. That's why I'm just, I think it's better to presume. Right. But what if it doesn't happen until week? Then everything we said before our show about Rice will just be the true stuff.

But right now it's not that situation. I'm saying, are you drafting Travis Kelsey? I am willing to draft Travis Kelsey. Let's say our League of Record is tomorrow. Of course, yeah, tomorrow. Okay, that's I'm drafting with confidence that Rushie Rice will be suspended this season, even if it happens to be week four before the suspension comes. I think where Travis Kelsey is being drafted in the seventh round, it doesn't sound like much of a difference. You go, oh, the fifth round, seventh round. It's not about what round number. it's about who are the players and where are those tier breaks at running back in wide receiver. And the difference between who you're still able to get in the fifth and who you're able to get in the seventh is monumental. So I will take Travis Kelsey in the seventh and enjoy a first half run and then I will trade him after a month or two. It's very weird to have him at this spot in fantasy drafts. So yeah, if he slips there. If he's in round seven, that works for me. And I think it could work really, really well. Like there's a world where of Rashi Rice, which he should be suspended.

and no Hollywood Brown. Kelsey could end up the tight end one after the first five weeks. How many targets do you think Travis Kelsey was on pace for weeks four through 17? Basically it had to be over 110? 158. Yeah. This is just, this is how they roll now. They don't throw it down the field. Yeah. And if he's in a lot better shape, I mean, this is the best shape of his life period. I don't care about that narrative, but. You don't think he worked out with Luca? I don't think that you get in the best shape of your life at 36 versus 35 when you are a professional athlete. He definitely looked too heavy last year. So you think maybe it was a Swifty problem? Like you let himself go a little bit. You win two Super Bowls. You have a few bruskeys. That's all I'm saying. Yeah, I think you get your behind whooped in the Super Bowl. And it changes. He is a competitive dude. Especially when you're like after that Super Bowl, it's, hey, Travis, are you retiring?

Maybe. I feel like if you're not going to retire, you better get in, you better make this. You come. It's a chip on his shoulder season. Do you think that's real narrative, but just genuine question. Do you think he's motivated to be better this year because like we're higher in sports podcast than his podcast now? Oh. Oh. Because last year, Travis Kelsey, the Kelsey's were beating us in the rankings. Not this year. Not this year. You cannot control this man right now. More like, it's just the truth. I'm just saying the truth. You talk about old heights. I'm, oh. Get wrecked, Kelsey's. Oh, that's. I ain't scared of you. Kind of scared of your mom, but I'm not scared of you too.

Full disclosure, I am scared of you. But yeah, I'm just saying he's more motivated now. That's all. He's motivated for this evening. He seems like an amazing. He's a competitive guy. Amazing time for an ad break. We'll be back with our top four. Back into the tight end rankings. Number four. Do we remember how good this guy was? T.J. Hawkinson comes in at number four. We're giving him the respect in the rankings and he is being drafted as the tight end five in the late fifth as of right now. You know, Minnesota, we're talking about J.J. McCarthy. We're talking about this offense. And T.J. Hawkinson, you know, he came back last year, limited snap counts. Definitely didn't look like the player he was the previous three, four years. But I think we know what's there when you can have enough time to recover and how important he could be into this offense. You're going into the season just to lay the foundation.

Addison likely to miss two or three games to start the year as a result of the DUI settlement. Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. No, no, no. It was a DUI settlement, which was settled as a, I mean, it's still a DUI. Is it? I thought the whole point is. You still do, I mean, he's still, well, I know, I almost said performed. No, it's still a DUI. No, it's still a DUI. I don't think it is. That was, that was what he was arrested for. Yes, you could be guilty to being wet reckless. Being wet reckless, yeah. Was he driving under the influence, Jason? We'll never know. Okay. This is not the point. He's going to miss time. Jefferson's got the hammy. First part of the year, Hawkinson should be a great best buddy to a young quarterback in McCarthy. Didn't score a touchdown last year after returning. Do you throw most of last year's performance out, and it seems like you do with your ranking? Yeah. Hawkinson is a very valuable player, especially to a young quarterback.

You know, the only downside to Hawkinson to me is I do think he fits kind of that Evan Ingram role where it's at this point in his career coming off the injury, you're not going to be necessarily going super far downfield, you know, 14, 15 yards of reception or anything like that. So I don't know what he was last year. So he was, I guess he was at 11. Man, Evan Ingram sucks, but, you know, the issue is he did what he was asked to do. You're still, I would have asked them to break a few more tackles. But if you don't want that, you don't want that. Oh my gosh. You know, the issue is just where you draft him. He's that comfort blanket that not only for JJ McCarthy, but for the fantasy football drafter. Like when those top guys are gone and you're like, ooh.

I want, I still want someone good. You end up with Laporta and Hawkinson, those in some order. You still have to spend a decent price. And that's the issue. But there's a risk that comes with Hawkinson and just the fact that, you know, last year. I mean, to be fair to him, he only played about 60% of snaps. His career, he's been an 80% snap guy at least. But, you know, you have to expect him to be back in form, have a rapport with the young quarterback. These are things we don't know for sure. And that's part of the risk with the selection. It is nice that he's cheaper than where LaPorta is right now. But which offense do you trust more? Like I think we're all bullish on the Vikings, but the risk for that is, you know. He ended up going, Hawkinson went 7-Eleven in our mock yesterday. Oh, that's a great thing. But that was also a full three-wide, three-wide situation there. I'd expect him to drop a little bit. Kelsey at 7-12 in yesterday's mock draft.

So I guess the question is do you just believe that that Hawkinson is going to be super important to the offense? I tend to think he will be. I tend to think that too. That's where my median projections ended up. But he makes me a little nervous. He feels like he's sitting right in that middle tier tight end who you're like, okay, I feel good. I got a guy. I can just leave in there. every single week i don't have to go stream and you're just going to get disappointed over and over and over he's played seven games when jefferson missed time in the last couple of years and he was outrageous in those games so like if you if you don't have addison like those first three weeks or anybody goes down like he he went up to like almost 10 targets a game 76 yards a game super valuable but um