Early Top 10 RB Rankings + Conspiracy Theories - Fantasy Football Podcast

Those are not exercise. But I feel like it is. I feel when I go around the block that I am exercising. And it really is. The wind's blowing in my face. It's a mental exercise. But I am so sad that I can't burn calories doing that. Can you pretend when you're using it? Can you pretend you're using your foot to push yourself? Can't you foot push a electric scooter still? I mean, you can, but why would you do that? You'd probably get hurt. All right, Alvin, back to Alvin Camara. I do have my, you know, obviously last year.

a disappointing five touchdowns on the ground. That was the story. But he only had four goal line carries, which was insane, 37th among the running back position. And, you know, when we headed into last year, it was a very rumored statement, but I had heard it said that, look, they can't trust Alvin Camara alone. Words about him being a little weak, and they needed a Latavius or an ingram behind him came out.

Kind of saw it last year. Don't really know why the team would want to put everything on him going into the new year, which is why he's a little bit lower on my rankings. Obviously, the team is great. We've talked about Drew Breeze, how set up they are. Still like Alvin Camara, but I do have, I just don't know if the consistency you get with Alvin is going to be the same as other running backs.

Yeah, I mean, you saw over the, you know, the first few weeks of the season, some of the same Camara that looked unbelievable. Just you can't tackle him like you can't other guys. And he catches the ball so naturally. You know, he had the third most running back receptions and he missed a couple of games there in the middle. I also buy into the leg issues for both him and Saquan. I said this several times through the year. When they got that high ankle sprain, they came back.

after a couple missed weeks, they didn't look the same for another four or five weeks. And, you know, Sequin was even talking about it was very difficult mentally to trust the leg for certain moves. And then at the end of the season, both Sequin and Alvin Camara looked great again. It was like they were championship, you know, league winners in those final weeks. And so maybe it really was the leg issue.

You brought it up already, Andy, the five touchdowns. You know, his touchdown rate was unsustainably high the previous year. And the pendulum swung way to the other side. I expected to be right in the middle this coming year. And so because he has less volume in the running game, that's why I've got him at number five behind Dalvin Cook and the top three. Cook and Camero were very close as to who I would put ahead.

That's kind of the second tier for me, these guys who do catch the ball but carry a little bit more risk. You know, but I still think he's... 171 carries last year. Yeah, that's... What's wild about Alvin Kamara is two years ago when we talked about and he was elite, he was averaging just under 59 rushing yards per game. Last year...

He averaged just under 57 rushing yards per game. He has finished with 81 receptions every year of his career. You just saw a big downturn. 81 on the dot? 81 on the dot. That's just all they book them for. That's crazy. That's crazy. But you saw the efficiency. You saw the big plays in the passing game go down where two years ago was 81 receptions and 709 receiving yards. Last year, 81 receptions, only 533.

receiving yards. And then it's like that's the down tick in Alva Camara is big plays in the past a game and only five rushing touchdowns compared to 14. That's the difference to me. And to me that's the injury. I'm buying completely into that. And I will be very happy with Alva Camara as my RB one. Interesting. Okay. All right. Six and seven on our consensus list. Derek Henry and then Nick Chubb. I have Henry all the way up at four.

You know, he got franchised. The entire, you know, the defining characteristic of this team is finding a way to get Derek Henry 20 carries a game. I like that. It's a good thing for fantasy. 303 last year, 1,540 yards. We talked about the buying or selling of Henry or Chubb in, you know, up above 1,400 rushing yards. I don't know if he gets there, but I'm pretty sure he's getting double-digit touchdowns in this offense this year. That's fair.

I know he's not involved in the passing game, but you just look at what he did from a consistency standpoint last year, regardless of the passing game work, fifth, first, third, fifth, fifth, first, seventh, third. He can still finish at the very top on a weekly basis without the receiving game work. So I'm expecting more of the same from Henry. That's why I meant four. My questions for Derek Henry completely come down to are they right about Ryan Tannahill?

I mean, that's the biggest question to me because last year, Derek Henry was the running back 14 with Marcus Mario, which is still solid. I mean, running back 14 is nothing to be upset about, but he jumps all the way up to the running back two in the games where he was playing with Ryan Tanyhill. So that, because snaps went way up, rushing attempts went way up with Ryan Tanhill because they're winning games. So that's the biggest question. And then.

the offensive line with Conklin going to the Cleveland Browns will, and I know it's just one piece. I totally understand that, but an offensive line, it's, they need congruency. They are, they have to work as one. When you change in just one player, sometimes it screws up the entire chemistry of the offensive line. So will they be able to maintain that and still give him the protection he needs or the,

the running lanes that he needs to be the elite fantasy runner. Yeah, I mean, I think if the expectation was that he's going to just continue to do what he did with Ryan Tannahill, the, you know, the last, you know, two-thirds of the year, then he would be the running back one. Right. I mean, he, he would be on, you know, 20 touchdowns and 2,000 rushing yards. Who cares if he.

catches a pass all season. I don't think that is the expectation. You're right. Conklin was big to the right side of the line. They ran Derek Henry more to the right than to the left, and he was most successful going around Conklin, but that doesn't mean he wasn't successful to the left or, you know, he was always running to the right. To the left. Not to mention this team. This team doesn't want to disrupt what they're paying Derek Henry franchise money. So there's obviously it can disrupt it.

But you have to imagine that they believed it wouldn't to do it, you know, to let him go. Yeah, when I looked at the running back rankings, because I think Derek Henry is an outlier, a beast. We've talked about that. He's going to succeed and be awesome. He's going to have monstrous games.

I know he can disappear if the game script were to go the wrong direction for him. Thankfully, I think that the Titans are a good team. And I think they're going to be at the very least in the majority of games, if not outright winning a lot of them. And so he's safe to me. But after that tier, those first five guys, that's where I felt comfortable putting the great running backs who aren't pass catchers, that being Derek Henry. And for me, Nick Chubb, those two guys who I worry about the receiving work,

You know, they're not listed as the best fantasy back. And this is where I'm comfortable spending that pick on a guy who might have game script worry. Yeah, really, that was the hardest challenge for me was deciding to put Henry up above Alvin Camar because of the dynamics of, you know, PPR, half-point leagues. We talked about Henry in the off-season last year. What can you expect? But when you have a guy getting 300-plus carries, who certainly enter the outlier category, Nick Chubb, we've talked about him.

Last year, 298 carries, 1,494 yards, and 8 touchdowns. We've talked about the dynamic with Kareem Hunt, Kevin Stefanski coming over. You know, I think Chubb's going to be solid. Conklin? Yeah, Conklin. Yeah, I think Chubb is going to be a solid running back this year. Jason and I, or I'm sorry, Jason has him at 7. Mike and I have him at 8, but look, he's a great runner.

He's a great runner. And so, you know, led the league with seven games of at least 100 rushing yards. Big playability. You know, he could disappear and then all of a sudden break off a 55-yard run. And, you know. I like when we just intentionally use the number. I didn't. It was a total accident. Oh. All right. So do you guys have anything you want to talk about with Chuck? I.

I just wanted to bring it up because if you following us on social media, I had tweeted this out a little bit ago, just researching. And if you had Nick Chubb, you certainly felt this. If you were watching the Cleveland Browns games, you certainly saw it. But his efficiency at the goal line specifically carries inside the five comically bad. 15 carries for negative 14 yards inside the five.

He only had... And still had a year where he finished at seven. Yeah, he had two touchdowns. Number one. Two touchdowns on his carries inside the 15. Of players who had double-digit carries inside the five zone, they averaged a touchdown on 46% of those attempts.

And Nick Chubb was down at 13%. And that 46% that includes Nick Chub bringing down the average. I'm not putting that on Nick Chubb. That's where offensive lines go to win or lose is on that goal line. Yeah, I'm not putting it. Line was losing. I'm not putting it all on Chubb. No, you look, the eyeball test matters here. Nick Chubb is awesome. Like as a running back, he's great. He's strong. He's everything. The fact that. He is mighty.

The fact that he didn't get those touchdowns but did get the opportunity, he's not going to lose that opportunity. That's his. You know, he's going to succeed more than that percentage just by looking at NFL averages because he's not a bad back there. So I think that his touchdown volume could go way up. He's at eight rushing touchdowns, you know, each of the last two seasons. So I think he's...

certainly in a good position to be worthy of a high pick, even though he's not really the past catching guy, and he's going to be splitting a little bit more time like he did the second half of the season with Kareem Hunt. Now, do you have concern that that split could actually increase in Kareem Hunt's favor? I think it could. They have an entire off season to plan of, we know that Kreme Hunt is going to be on our team, week one. It's not where we have this system that we built.

and spent all this time on an offense when we know we can't even use it until halfway through the season. It's possible that Hunt is in there more than he was last year. It is possible he's in there a little bit more. But even with Hunt was pretty involved last year. Hunt wasn't just some, you know, throwaway piece that came in, you know, for a couple of plays here and there. He was in there. And during that time, Nick Chubb was still on pace for 1,382 rushing yards. So, okay, maybe he only gets.

1,250 rushing yards, but his touchdown based on that previous conversation goes up. So I'm not worried. Kareem Hunt isn't scaring me off of Nick Chubb here at running back. All right. In number eight, our consensus, number eight running back, Aaron Jones of the Packers. I've got him the lowest at number 10. Jason has him at 9. Mike at 7. I'm weary. I'm worried. The franchise record 23 touchdowns and 18 games, including the playoffs. Obviously, those touchdown numbers were outlandish. 16 on the ground last year.

No doubt that Aaron Jones is a great dynamic player, but the way he put up this number two overall finish was not the way that, you know, Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott, Dalvin Cook put up their seasons. You had weeks, weeks one, six, nine, 12, 13, where he was outside the top 36. And then you had other weeks that he absolutely smashed in one new weeks. Number two overall in week two.

Number one in week five, number one in week eight, number two in week 14. You know, the Aaron Jones experience overall was very good, but you did have a different kind of production that was very touchdown dependent. Only 236 carries in 16 games. So I have them a little bit lower expecting those touchdown totals to come down a little bit. You know, the dynamics of this Green Bay offense, the trend of that Green Bay offense. I'm curious about where it's going to head.

So I'm a little more leery than you are, Mike. Talk to me why you have him at seven. Sure. Compared to some of these other players. So I went in when we were doing our overreaction show, I actually went in with the mindset of, okay, I'm going to disprove Aaron Jones and say why you shouldn't spend a really high pick on him. And then after going through all the research that I ended up looking at, it was I think that Aaron Jones can.