NFC East Breakdown + Against the Odds, Hot Stats - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/25

They bring Zeke back. Okay, whatever. Michael Gallup's not a member of the team. There's a lot of stability in what they're doing. Head coach, the offensive system, the quarterback, the best players. The lack of a running game or the not elite running game, I'll say. I mean, it'll be interesting to see how they start the year to see if they still want to double down on the like, let's run it inside the red zone and see if we can score. And if they do, maybe the passing game will. take a step back. But the nice thing is with Zeke and Doubtel, this version of Zeke, I would expect that you're going to have a re-roll of last year offensively. They're going to throw the ball a lot and they're going to throw the ball in the red zone. Because, you know, to add to what you were saying about Tony Pollard of like, oh, how high would you, if you knew some of these things that were coming, like they were the number one scoring offense? What if you knew that Tony Pollard had 16 carries inside the five? Lord, you kidding me? Yeah, yeah. But he turned it into three touchdowns. It was ineffective. So I do think they're going to keep throwing the ball in there.

But just real quick on the running backs, between the two of them, I don't know. Like, Zeke looked extremely washed last year. We talked about him on the Dynasty podcast of 3% of his carries turned into a 15-yard gain. It was like the worst of qualifying running backs. Rico Dowdell's 26. He really has seen no action. But on a yearly basis, we see... eight teams or so that don't have a top 24 ADP running back. And then four of those teams have someone who finishes in the top 24. And what correlates is either it's a true workhorse. I don't think we have that situation. But you have an elite offense. And like those are the two things of these late round running back. So both of these guys, it's gross. It's, it is. But I would, I'd sprinkle.

these guys into your teams. I would bet on the Zeke side. Yeah, I'm very on the Zeke's side, but that's fine. How good of an offense was New England last year? Not good. No. Because Zeke ended the year 17th, 1st, 33rd, 10th, 23rd, 23rd. So he caught a million passes. Because in that time, he was a full workhorse. This is true, but he also showed that he can do what Pollard did last year, which was to just catch the ball. Just catch the ball out of the backfield. And if Pollard were drafted where Zeke is being drafted this year, would have been feeling like a league winner last year. Instead, he was drafted, you know, first, second round. It's not a running back room that we're looking for explosive league winning weeks, but like Mike said, sprinkle in some opportunities for a number one offense. Yes. Brandon Cooks, where are you with Brandon Cooks? Because, you know, Ferguson, that was kind of fun last year for Brandon Cooks. He had a game or two, but it was like,

If he scored a touchdown, he was top 24. Yeah, Brandon Cooks had a great stretch after the by week where he was decently consistent and pretty valuable for fantasy. But it was on the back of touchdowns. His yards per game, I mean, 49, 7, 42, 45, 37, 10, 14. But it was 14 and a touchdown. It was 45 in a touchdown. He just scored so many touchdowns where I... I think you need to look at kind of the truth of how it came about, how it came about. And I'm, I find myself early in the offseason, I was like, I was not looking as deeply into Brandon Cook's and I was kind of in. I find myself bypassing him now. Three games last year over four catches. Yeah, he's not involved enough for me to be confident in a lineup. If you're in a best ball league and you're just going to get the touchdowns fine, but I would rather, obviously C.D. Lamb is a.

is awesome. Everyone wants him. If you're at the top of your draft, congratulations. And then in the past game, I'm Jake Ferguson. I think his red zone opportunities last year were elite. Led all tight ends with 25 targets in the red zone. Best. I really like Jake Ferguson. He's my final rip cord at the tight end position. I'm more in on Brandon Cooks than you guys. Not that it's not madly in love. knocking people out of the way so I can draft him a few rounds high, but it's wide receiver 64 and 80p right now, 13th round. He caught, but he did catch eight touchdowns, like eight touchdowns in double digit range. Like when you're, there's, there's a lot of time when you're in the trenches and you're like, I have nobody to start. I think Brandon Cooks is, is a good depth wide receiver. I mentioned their schedule was part of the equation and going in on Dallas last year.

Although the run for DAC was like week six through the end of the year, so all but five weeks. But they had a better schedule. This year, the more difficult schedule, but look at the start to the season. They have got a tough one on the road in Cleveland. Yeah, okay. And they are underdogs in Cleveland in week one. But then they're favored in five consecutive games, New Orleans, Baltimore, the Giants, Pittsburgh, and Detroit. But being favored in five straight heading into the buy, Nothing about the schedule is intimidating me or talking me out of Dallas to start the year. Yeah, I can agree. I can't tell if you're thinking, Jason, or you're just head bobbing? No, I would say, like, I'm not going to, the players that I'm going after, Ferguson is basically free, so I'm not going to be talked out by schedule. C.D. Lamb and DAC are, you're going in on them, and so the schedule's not going to. But the opening schedule of Cleveland, New Orleans, Baltimore, I mean, I know they're favored in two of those three, but all three are really good defenses.

So, you know, I'm not worried about New Orleans. Not New Orleans, but yeah, Cleveland and Baltimore. Where are you guys just overall with DAC of like compared to the field? Like, if we left our draft with Dak, we're, we're happy about it. Oh, very happy. But it's like he is being drafted as the QB9. He's going in the seventh round. Yeah, like, do you have, we have him as the, Andy has him as the quarterback six. I've got him as the quarterback seven. You've got him as the quarterback eight. So I think we'd be okay with that. I'm just saying like, are you... He's not one of my targets. In mock drafts, I don't remember any of us saying, okay, in this build, I'm going to target DAC. It's just kind of you're okay leaving with him? I think the only time I would be targeting DAC is if I started the draft with CD. And I'm looking for that. In the last three years, which you can pull this up in the ultimate draft kit, we have a career fantasy finish chart. We call it the snapshot tool. Over the last three years, the top five...

Most consistent point scores at the position. Alan Mahomes, Hertz, Herbert, DAC. Yeah. So, Dak's above, you know, obviously Burrow in that stretch. He's above Lamar in that stretch. So, you know, there are only a few guys that are like, like you know that they're going to re-roll, like you said. They're going to rerroll what this offense does. So is it a vote for Zeke in the red zone or a vote for DAC? And at least in that regard, I'll be on the DAC side. Philly's 11 and 6, or was 11 and 6. They had a projected win total of 11.5 last year. This year it's at 10 and a half. You talked about a tale of two seasons. They were, you know, 10 and 1. And during that stretch, third in points per game, fourth and plays per game, fifth and run percentage. After that point, there were 20th in points per game, 18th in plays per game, 18th and run percentage. So it collapsed. And, you know, Nick Siriani, I just saw this interview. Yep.

It was, and I won't be able to tell you who it was with. It was through the athletic, one of their podcasts. But it was somebody that was really connected in Philadelphia, and they were talking about the strained relationship between Nick Seriana. It was Diana Rossini. Thank you. And Jalen Hertz. And how this was a grind. The victories were a grind last year, even when they walked out with a win. And Nick Siriano was calling plays. And now he's going to try to step back from calling plays this year. But you've seen Nick Siriani in a presser. Give me three losses in a row and tell me who's calling plays. That's all I'm going to say. Like there's going to be a heavy hand if things don't go right, in my opinion, from Nick Siriani. Because there's not patience in Philadelphia. That has never been an attribute of that city and that team. You need to win and you need to win today. So it is a, you know,

third team in three years. So I like what Killamore does. I like what his concepts are and what they bring to the table. But Dallas moved on from them, right? And it didn't work in Los Angeles, obviously. A lot of peripheral reasons you can blame. But I'm just saying if it doesn't work in Philadelphia, that's three times in three years. You're not going to be talking about Kellamore in the offseason as bringing hope to a team. Yeah, if he fails, you won't. But I do not expect him to fail. He didn't fail in Dallas. Dallas had a great offense. And that was a mutual. It wasn't like he was fired there. And then last year, if you remember, to start the season, the Chargers offense was great. Justin Herbert was one of the best in the league. You know, Keenan Allen was unbelievable. The team collapsed. Justin Herbert got injured. They lost a ton of games. Their head coaching, you know, circus show was put to death.

But now you end up, you know, Adam Gase was a great offensive coordinator when he had Peyton Manning. You know, and he turns out he wasn't a great offensive coordinator. I just think like if Kellan Moore is average and you've got Jalen Hertz and Devante Smith and A.J. Brown and you add Sequin Barkley and you've got a top end offensive line. I think he'll succeed. And so this is the slot guy is very interesting to me from a Kellynne Moore perspective. This is what I'm so interested, interested in see this training camp. If we can figure out who is that motion guy? Who's the guy in motion? Who's the guy in the slot that was last year's Keenan Allen and CD Lamb the year prior for Kellyn Moore systems? Because it could be Devante Smith.

It could, yeah. It could also be A.J. Brown, just because he's the big, strong guy doesn't mean, you know, I saw Matt Harmon talking about this. Like, Matt Harmon thinks that AJ Brown will have that role. I think it's going to be Devante Smith. Maybe that's just hopeful thinking, because I got him. But I want whoever that role is because it's hyper-targeted. Not Paris Campbell, though. No, no. Which, to put some context, last year, pre-snap motion, 11% of plays for the Eagles, by far the lowest rate in the NFL. The Chargers were eighth last year, and it really is, it's oversimplifying an NFL offense, but it's just the teams who have elite offenses use motion all the time. And it's, like, it's a hard thing to argue against. I don't know if you're a coach calling plays, why would you not look at what Miami and San Francisco and all these guys who are in L.A. And they're running up huge numbers on offense.

Why would you not see what they are doing? Green Bay, fourth, and pre-snap motion behind Dolphins, Rams, and 49ers, Detroit, great offense, Baltimore, great offense. Yeah, it sets up the defense. You get to see what they're playing a lot more if you've got something before you snap the ball for the defense to have to counter. And I guess, I'm not, I'm not trying to throw a bunch of cold water on a bunch of talented players for fantasy. But last year was the first time that we got to see the fact that you could have a... worse outcome than you expect. To go on the run that they did being as bad as they were on the offensive side was the first time we ever saw it from this perfect impervious offense. So, you know, it's kind of like for the, you know, it's just the first time that you saw it. And so that gives you doubts about it always working for Philadelphia in a division where they'll be fighting. They still have a 10 and a half win total. Their offense is really easy to draft for fantasy.

Right? Yeah, it's very focused. It's super, you know, it's Sequin. You know, I'd love to talk about him momentarily, but you mentioned Devante Smith, AJ Brown. Jalen Hertz is at the top of our list. But Sequin specifically, it should work. Right? Yeah. Yes. It absolutely should. You've got a great offensive line, a good offense with plenty of scoring opportunities. DeAndre Swift, you know, a lot's been made about the tush push and that you're not going to have the running back running in. touchdowns from the one yard line? And no, you probably won't. But you will have him running them in from the five yard line. And DeAndre Swift had plenty of opportunities inside the five. He just always got to the two or the one. And then Jalen Hertz said, thanks, buddy, I'll take it from here. Sequin should cross that plane. Yeah. So, yeah, I mean, I think there's a lot of excitement and optimism that they get the offense figured out. And it looks like what we were used to, you know, at the tight-in position, I think we're all in the ship-assailed boat for Dallas Goddard.

not because he can't have a good game or a good performance or even be a streaming tight in for a number of weeks, but the injuries and where he falls in the pecking order, it no longer gives us the confidence. Like if an injury happens during the year, I will be picking Goddard up. Sure. To be a, you know, a streaming tight end. It's just a matter of because everything is so focused, like I am, my chips are all the way in on AJ Brown this year. He's the wide receiver 6 and 80P, so that's not very bold. But it's just,

Like either Devontas Smith or Dallas Goddard can succeed with AJ Brown. I don't think both of them can. And even then for me, if Smith becomes that motion man, Jason, like you are crossing your fingers and toes and eyes and wishing for, then maybe we see some true ceiling. But it's like 95 for 1,2007. That's a great year. But then follow it up with 81 for just over 1,000. It's like... He feel, Devonzo Smith feels like he is, he's drafted like at his ceiling where so many things have to go wrong for the team for it to go right for Smith and fantasy. That's, that's my only issue with his ADP. Yeah, I mean, last year, I think he was overdrafted. He was, I think he was near the end of the second. It was like him, Jalen, and T. Higgins. The three twos last year. They were drafted.

really, really high. Right now, I don't think he's drafted at his ceiling at all. He's the wide receiver 22 in average draft position. He can definitely finish above that. I mean, he finished above that last year. And then, he was the wide receiver 10 his sophomore year. But they're saying, yeah, wide receiver 10 at 12.2 points per game. Yeah. And then that was also, I think that was like Goddard missed. Goddard missed a huge chunk. He's definitely much better when Goddard's going. That's what I mean of like something has to go wrong for the team for. Smith to come through. But I will say Dallas Goddard. He's no spring chicken. He's been in the league, what, like seven years? And I think his rookie season is the last time he's played a full season. All right. The New York Giants were six and 11 last year. They actually started one in five. They finished five and six over the final 11 games. They are projected to win seven and a half. This year it's at six and a half. Oh. I heard they are projected to win seven and a half. I was very surprised.

And then you said this year at six and a half, that feels much more realistic. Sacrificial baby. They said, hey, this 29th ranked offense needs to get rid of the one player we wanted to watch. So they did. And Sequin left in division. They did go out and spend draft capital on Malik neighbors, who were all excited to see at the 106. I couldn't help, but, you know, you talk about training camp. First video I saw today. From neighbors? Daniel Jones. No, no, no, it was neighbors. It was Daniel Jones with just the simplest five-foot screen pass. Air mailing is running back out of the backfield. I saw one of, it was funny because of the caption that came with it. I don't know if they were being fun or not, but it was like, you know, Jones throws a dot to Malik Neighbors, and Neighbors ends up dropping the ball.

but it was also like the floatiest, just drop. So it was, but not worried about that. For Malik Neighbors, just worried about the actual, like how intense the excitement is from Malik Neighbors, because from a talent perspective, coming into the NFL draft where you had Marvin Harrison Jr., who by many has looked at as this is a bust-proof pick for the NFL. A lot of people, like you heard GM saying, like, No, we have neighbors above Marvin Harrison Jr. for our particular offense. So are you, Jason, it feels like you have softened and like risen a bit on Malik neighbors because he's going at wide receiver 20. That's aside from Marvin Harrison Jr. that's tied with Amari Cooper, the second highest rookie wide receiver ADP ever. And you're relying on this Giants offense and Daniel Jones. And it's it freaks me out.

Yeah, I don't blame you for having it freak you out. I think that rookie wide receivers have oftentimes in the recent NFL history, they've been good bets. But a lot of times it's the second half of the year when you really get their value. And so you might be disappointed a little bit to start season when you start with Malik neighbors. However, the talent, the explosiveness. The comp for him, I think for a lot of people, certainly for me, was Jamar Chase in college, not just because he played on the same team. He's got the same kind of body and athleticism and that explosive ability. The depth chart of Malik Neighbors and Wondale Robinson and Darius Slate and Jalen Hyatt and Alan Robinson. Wait, what? I totally forgot. That says to me that it's like 130 targets guaranteed to neighbors. Now, this isn't a great.

prolific offense, the scoring opportunities might not be there. But because of his explosive athleticism, if you just put the ball in his hands, you know, 80, 90, 100 plus times. Yeah, I mean, this is Jaylon Waddle all over again. Not the perfect prototype, but the fact that Waddle was drafted in the top, was he pick six? Yeah, something like that. So same pick as neighbors, went to a team that no one had any confidence in the offense in Miami and finished a wide receiver 16 with a over 100 catches. I view it that way. I haven't ranked at 17, so I haven't ranked kind of in how Waddle finished his rookie year. I do think he's capped a little bit by Daniel Jones and the potential for a quarterback change to happen. Like, if they're losing ball games, I don't know, Daniel Jones survives the whole season. Sure. But so the stat is we've only seen one rookie finish in the top 30 if he is on a bottom 10 passing yards per game roster. So if Daniel Jones...

finishes bottom 10, based off of history, your probability of hitting is very, very low. And that one man was Mike Evans who had 12 touchdown. It is ironic, though. That's a little bit of a chicken or an egg stat because if Malik Neighbors is great and he finishes in the top 30 at wide receiver, then they probably won't have a bottom 10 at the end of the season. They probably won't finish in the bottom 10 of passing because maybe he took a couple to the house 70 yards and then all of a sudden their numbers are good. If you want to bend it.

positively for Giants fans out there looking for a crumb of optimism in this division. Daniel Jones has not had the weapons necessary to succeed at the NFL level nor the offensive line. Those things have not been in place for him. So this is at least like if you are stuck with Daniel Jones, which they are, be stuck with the ability to find out if it would have ever worked. Like getting Malik neighbors is a It's the ability to know definitively if Daniel Jones is your quarterback of the future or not. Like if you can't get it done this year, it's over. Andy, did you watch the hard knocks? I know Mike and I have. I've seen some of them. I'm not caught up. Okay. So, but you saw enough to what I'm saying. When they were talking about Daniel Jones, their general manager was constantly saying we've, you know, he's never had an offensive line. Instead of paying Saguat Barkley, we need to get him an offensive line.

and we need to get him a weapon if there's an offensive weapon there at six. Over and over and over, he talked about improving this offensive line. Yeah, baby, from 30 to 29 this year. Yeah, and according to Warren Sharp, dead last. Like, what, you talked a big game, man. You did nothing with the offensive line. He kept talking about, well, you'll see Daniel Jones if we get him a good offensive line, and then he didn't. So, sorry, Giants fans. Devin Singletary's the new running back in New York. I mean. Experience with Brian Dayball in his system. Very, well, how would you describe? Give me one word to describe Devon Singletary. Comoter! Okay, nice, nice. Jason, what did you say? I was going to say competent. He's very competent. Yeah, I think Singletary isn't above average running back. And he will outproduce running back 33, which is where he's being drafted in the back of the ninth. Now that could mean he's running back 29, and it's of no consequence.

But he is an interesting name of being a starting running back that if you want to bet on the Giants and Malik neighbors being able to help turn things around and get into just maybe the middle of the pack, that would be great for Singletary. Yeah, you brought up something when they first signed, which seemed kind of outlandish, but I haven't been able to stop thinking about it. This sounds almost hot takey. This isn't. This isn't a sound bite or clickbait. But it is possible for the New York Giants that Devin Singletary is almost a better back for them. Right. Because Sequin is a home run hitter. Sequin, when he was the whole offense and they had no weapons, they had no passing game. He just looked for every single play a way to score a touchdown when he got the ball. He says, if I don't do it, no one's going to do it. Exactly right. And Devin Singletary is going to get his three yards to four yards every single play. He's going to go north. He's going to.

fall forward and, ironically, he'll have easier opportunities because he's not Saquan Parkley. He's not going to just face the entire defense coming in going like, how do we stop Devin Singletary? So for the Giants in their actual offense, which leaks back to the Malik neighbors conversation, it might not be the downgrade that people might be worried about going from Saquan. Yeah, Kyle's coming in with hot stats here of. talking about scheme of man. In running, there's essentially there's man or there's zone running. Sequin ranked 49th out of 49 running mass in success rate on man gap runs. Like he was not not getting done what he needed to get done. Which offensive line factors into that, but just saying like, yeah. They're not going to be favored in a lot of games, but they do start the year against Minnesota, who could be Darnold or McCarthy. They face Washington in week two, which is another rookie.

Could be 2 and 0. And then Deshaun Watson in week three in Cleveland. That'll be a tough game. That'll be a tough one. Quick break back with Washington. All right. The manders, they went four and 13, and they're starting over. We have a new owner. We've got a new GM. We've got a new head coach. We got a new quarterback. Wow. We got an old Echler. This is really like the complete reboot. They should just rebrand the team. They actually are going to rebrand. Are they really? Is that official? Yeah, it won't be this year. I've heard rumors of what they're going to do it. There's a lot of discussion about it there. Yeah. You had this opportunity and then it's a different ownership. Yeah, yeah. Those are Snyder days, man. I know. The commanders is, it's not a good name. New offensive coordinator, Cliff Kingsbury as well.

Sweet. They had the fourth worst point differential of any team over the last five years last year. Wow. It was so frustrating because they threw the football more than any team in the league and it was a BUST bus season for John Dotson. Not an impressive, you know, Terry McLaurin always does the best he can do. In fact, I've seen some people be like, why are you not? all about Terry McLaren this year. And it's because, man, we're worn out. We're a little bit worn out. We're a little bit worn out. We also understand the ceiling. The ceiling is not there for Terry McLaren. It doesn't exist because... He can't DJ more? No. Well, here's the thing. Can he outproduce? Can he be a very good pick? Absolutely. He's the water receiver 33 right now in ADP. But if you look at his career, he's finished as the water receiver 28, 21, 25, 14, and 28.

That's like he is a wide receiver two, but he's not a wide receiver one. Now, if he finishes at the wide receiver 1415 and you draft him as 33, that's fantastic. He's still got the talent. And this is a quarterback upgrade. Rookie quarterbacks don't throw a lot of touchdowns. A mobile rookie quarterback that might end up running in a few touchdowns might even throw a, you know, a few fewer. Is that, is that how you said? You could have just said fewer. It would have worked. That would have worked? Yeah, you could have said he could throw even fewer. It's like a double negative there. So he's throwing more. You could say fewer squared. But it's one of those things where the, you know, a rookie quarterback does not usually bode well for the wide receiver. And then you combine that with just who Terry McLaurin is, which is a really good wide receiver who's not elite. He's not going to be out there finishing in the top 10 at the position. So there is that fatigue. I don't mind taking him where he's being drafted. Are you guys?

I just, I haven't been because of that, like, lacking of a belief that he can finish top 10. I, yeah, he's, he's not an exciting pick. And it doesn't feel like you're drafting to win when you take Terry. Yeah, kind of doesn't. But let's put that to the test real quick. I want to see. Give me some names around him. Yeah. So the wide receivers around him, Roma Dunzee is going ahead of him. I'd rather have Terry. Yeah. Yeah. Oh, no, Terry there. Christian Kirk or Terry McLaurin? I'll take. That's neither. I'll go Kirk. Yeah, I'll go Kirk. Behind him is, here's the three wide receivers behind him. Jaden Reed, Jordan Addison, Xavier Worthy. I'll take Reed over him. Yeah. But I'm okay with McLaren over the other two. I agree completely, Andy. So he's going about the right spot. One of the big discussions, obviously, with the wide receiver room, Johan Dotson, can he bounce back? Can he, can he serve, you know? Yes.