Early Breakouts & Busts - Fantasy Football Podcast

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Just for the sake of the show. But I guess 60s more than 55. That is a mathematical fact. All right, Mike, you have a breakout candidate that will be very polarizing for our audience. It will be. We had a very impassioned listener of the show right in. I'm staring at his email. Right into the show to say, how can we possibly think that Daniel Jones is going to be a breakup fantasy football player? He's a Giants fan.

A lot of capital letters in this email, Mike. And he brought it. He brought the fire. But I still believe in Daniel Jones as a fantasy breakout quarterback. And the reason I am going with that one, to me, when I'm watching Daniel Jones play, yes, he made a lot of mistakes. He's a rookie quarterback. Rookie quarterback make a lot of mistakes. Those fumbles, that's unforgivable.

What he did in the fumble department. Number one in the NFL in turnover worthy plays per game. In a season where James Winston did that. Yes, because he fumbled the ball. However, he only threw 12 interceptions, which as a rookie, that's not too bad. But here's what I want to highlight about Daniel Jones. The last 10 years, rookie quarterbacks that have played at least 10 games, they've started those 10 games and averaged 250 passing yards per game, Andrew Luck, Baker Mayfield,

Cam Newton, James Winston, and Daniel Jones. That is it. He is in there with elite category. He put up the 10th best fantasy season for a rookie quarterback. And he started 12 games. In 12 games, he threw 24 touchdowns.

That's the fourth most for a rookie quarterback of all time. That put his pace at 32 touchdowns, which would have blown Baker Mayfield's rookie record out of the water. It would have been the only rookie quarterback to ever throw for 30 touchdowns. Now, I get it. He didn't do that. But still, the fourth most touchdowns in 12 games. That's very impressive. He joined Deshaun Watson as the second rookie quarterback ever to have three games with four plus passing touchdowns.

That's a very impressive feat. And that's if you're discounting the game, his first start where he had two passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns. He put up monster games. He was inconsistent, yes, but he was a rookie. And he runs the ball. I was going to say in 12 games, 279 rushing yards, two touchdowns. Yes, he put up, he was on a pace of 365 rushing yards. That's not, yes.

I get it. That's not Lamar Jackson numbers, but... It's helpful. No one is Lamar Jackson. That's what I'm saying. Old Alex Smith numbers. Those are like Alex Smith numbers where you're averaging over 20 rushing yards a game. That eliminates one mistake right there, and we know he is working on his ball security. Then Daniel Jeremiah recently tweeted out something that caught my attention because it's something you kind of know inherently, but you didn't realize this. In each team's projected 11 personnel, so one running back, one tight end, three wide.

Based on the 40-yard dash, the giants have, as a group, the fastest ensemble of weapons, even faster than the weapons in Kansas City. He is surrounded by speed. Like, Daniel Jones is willing to throw the ball down field, but he doesn't have to. He can just trust the players to run five yards in front of him and take it to the house on top of everything where the numbers are trending in a very positive direction.

Their defense stinks. They are really, really bad. The game scripts are going to be in favor of Daniel Jones. Last year, the Giants 30th best, as we would call them. Their free agency additions, James Bradbury, the 75th ranked corner, according to pro football focus. Blake Martinez, linebacker, ranked 58th, according to pro football focus last year. These are not...

awe-inspiring additions to the defensive side of the field. Daniel Jones is going to have to throw the ball a lot, and he is surrounded by talent. I think Daniel Jones is a breakout quarterback. You worry about Jason Garrett? I don't. I do not worry about Jason Garrett. Do you think that Daniel Jones had to do too much in a way? It almost seems like he is training himself to be the next James Winston, which for fantasy owners out there, by the way, don't hear what we're not saying.

Mike, to my knowledge, has not predicted the Giants to be Super Bowl contenders. No, and I don't care. There's a differentiation between fantasy success and NFL success. Clearly, that could not be better illustrated than James Winston, who broke records and was dismissed. He was great in fantasy football and literally couldn't get another gig in the real NFL. Yeah, 5,000 yards.

can't start for another team. So Daniel Jones last year had four games where he was either the number one or number two fantasy quarterback. The rushing yardage helps. My question to you, Mike, was just going to be, Sequin struggled to stay healthy last year. Did Daniel Jones have to do too much? Sequin wasn't able to do as much. Did that inflate some of those rookie touchdown totals? It's certainly possible, but I would counter that by saying this. Daniel Jones put up those 24 touchdowns that I talked about.

games that Daniel Jones played with his three starting wide receivers, four. That's four games. Yeah, I know Evan Ingram. And, yeah, I'm not even counting anger. I'm just saying games that Golden Tate, Sterling Shepard, and Dary Slayton were all on the field together four times. Like this, I really, really believe that Daniel Jones will be a top 10 quarterback by the end of the year. Now, he starts the season. His schedule. Pittsburgh, Chicago, San Francisco. The schedule.

Sucks. And the opening schedule is brutal for Daniel Jones. He's a D&D. I don't think it's impossible that Daniel Jones comes out and it's very surprising in these first few weeks. But even with my love and my projecting for Daniel Jones, he's not likely to be a player I'm targeting in the draft. He will be a player that I am targeting to pick up the waiver wire like week three or week four.

Yeah, that makes sense. And to speak to your question real quick, Andy, about with Sequin not there, did he have to do too much? In those games that Sequin wasn't there, he actually was on a, it was only three games, but it was a 16 game pace of 16 passing touchdowns. When Sequin came back in week seven on, that's when he had a 16 game pace of 38 touchdowns. He was much, much better when Sequin was in there. All right, you guys want to talk about some early bus? Let's do it.

Bus. He's letting him have it. Bus. All right. So again, like I mentioned before, in the Ultimate Draft Kit at Ultimate DraftKit. At Ultimate DraftKit. Tons of consensus bust picks. Also break out sleepers values. But these are our individual bust picks, early bust options. Jason, go ahead. Oh, we're kicking it off here with me. No, no, please go ahead. I will. You have, I will happily go.

I will happily go first. And this is where I knew there would be discreetment. Because you two both believe in Austin Eckler. Boo! I'm booing you. Boo! As a fantasy option, as a great fantasy option, especially you, Mike. Yes. You're in. You want Austin Echler on your teams this year. And I believe that he is going to be a fantasy bust. When I looked up the best ball drafts that are happening post-draft, I saw him as the 19th player taken off the board. Overall, not 19th running back, 19th player.

You're expecting big things. I've seen... You're talking about a great friend of the show. Austin Echler. I love Austin Echler. I think he's a super, super cool guy. You express it in interesting ways, Jason. Look, my stats are my own, and they don't paint as Rosie a picture. And what's ironic is I believe that Austin Eckler's fantasy relevance this year will come.

based fully upon his rushing attempts, that's where he's going to be good if you guys are right. If he's up there at 200 plus carries because he ends up being the clear leader of this, what I project to be a three-way timeshare, then I will be wrong and you will be right.

But my issue is that he is a receiving back. His fantasy production last year came so heavily based on the awesome receiving work. They will line them out wide. They'll put them in the slot. They use them out of the backfield. He had over 100 targets last year. That is fantasy gold. But, oh, wait, that doesn't mean that happens this year. Now, there's been a lot of talk about when people have 100 plus targets.

at running back that the next following year, you know, I've heard this about Leonard Fournette, that the following year doesn't always work out well. Well, I wanted to see because some of those numbers are misleading. You have David Johnson, Levion Bell, Danny Woodhead, Lamont, Jordan, and Alvin Camara. These are 100 plus target running backs? Those five are 100 plus target running backs who the following year played, you know, were injured. And it just ruins those numbers and it makes it look.

so devastating. So I did the math myself. I took every, since the year 2000, every running back who's had 100 plus targets, and I wanted to see what actually happens when they play the next year. How do they fare in general? So I took everybody with, you know, fewer than 11 games out. I want to make sure they're actually playing. And I wanted to see what was the, what happens? There's 25 running backs since 2000 that have plus 100.

receptions. I'm not counting this last year because we don't know the following year yet. Receptions are targets. Targets, sorry. And the average, the following year is a loss of 25 targets. 14 times they lost more than 20. 14 of 25 of those players lost more than 20 targets. 11 of those 25 players lost more than 40 targets the following season.

And now we have Austin Echler, who we know has a completely different situation. He doesn't have checked down Philip Rivers at quarterback. He's got a scrambling Tyrod Taylor. I think it is very within the realm of possibility that Austin Echler loses 40 targets. I have him losing 30 targets. And if that happens that he's not a super, you know, if he's not a 200 carry running back, then he's not going to return at the value he's being drafted at right now. That's my fear. I see the avenue.

I don't think he's a guaranteed bus. I'm not saying he sucks. I think he's a great running back. But the probability that he could not return on where he's being drafted, I think is way too high. So I've got him on my draft sheets as a guy that I'm going to be avoiding because I think that he could bust for fantasy value.

You want to take this room on me to take this, Mike? You can start. My only counterpoint to you is that, look, he's not being drafted as the RB6. That's what he finished as last year with those target totals, with the lower rushing attempts with Melvin Gordon in the backfield. So to me, it is an argument about who is integral to the offense. Great defense. I think we all agree. Los Angeles has a great defense. Yes.

Echler is integral to the offense. I don't know how much Taylor and how much Herbert we're going to get. But I'm not drafting him to be the RB6, and that's what he finished as. I have him ranked as my RB11. And so if the cost is RB6, I would be with you. He's not, I don't think he delivers on last year. I have him losing, I think, about 20 targets. Yep, as do I. And I don't have them with over 200 carries. I have them with 165.