Early Breakouts & Busts - Fantasy Football Podcast

Okay. I mean, every running back gets hurt. So this, I think we could get this report from every running back coach about their running back. They're like, well, actually, he was playing through a back and a knee injury all year. That's true. I mean, it's true. They get beat up. So any other news you guys want to talk about? No. All right. Let's go. Breakouts. Almost gotcha. So.

The Ultimate Draft Kit has a number of what we would call consensus breakouts from the three of us. This show is about some individual early breakout in bust picks. So we're sitting here in the middle of June. We have some of our favorites. I'm sure we will not agree on all of these names. That is for sure. Especially because Jason, I know. I've scanned this show document here.

And I know you've taken some shots at players that... Hey, this is my opportunity to say what I believe the truth is. That's true. So let's start with our early breakout picks. And we'll go right into that Shanahan offense. I'm going to go with running back Rahim Mostert. Okay. If you look at the identity of this team...

You talk about what Kyle Shanahan does best and has proven he can do in the NFL. It's run the football. The 49ers last year, they had the second most rushing attempts in the National Football League with 498 attempts. That was behind Baltimore. Baltimore has an extra running back built into that quarterback, and that's why they led the way. But from a running back perspective, nobody really does it quite like San Francisco.

You had Matt Breda in the mix last year. Rahim Mostert, did he break out at the back half of the year? I would say he had breakout games, still had a couple disappearing acts, and you still have Tavin Coleman to deal with. But Rahim Moster is in a position here with Matt Breda leaving 123 carries that he had last year. He's in Miami now. He has a great opportunity to have a much larger workload in one of the best rushing offenses in football. So I think he's not being valued that way.

in fantasy drafts right now. Interesting stat about Rahim Moster last year. Some people like the yards per carry metric. Some people hate the yards per carry metric. Player profiler goes a step further with what they call their true yards per carry, which basically gets rid of those monster runs and looks at a more averaged.

number. Rahim Moster was number one in football last year in that average number. Now, he still had 12 breakaway runs that put his yards per carry at 5.6. But when you kind of normalize it, it was still 5.3, best running back in football by that metric. A lot of that has to do with the system. It's taken Rahim Moster at a long time to get to this point. But this was a 95th percentile speed guy, 442. This was a 96 percentile burst score.

So Rahim Oster, we saw it on the field last year. He was their best running back. And I think he's going to have every opportunity to be that guy again this year. Tevin Coleman will have his games. But Tevin Coleman, if he showed me anything over the last five, six years, is that he disappears. He's the Amari Cooper of the running back position. Sometimes he shows up and you go, oh, I mean, in Atlanta, you'd be like, oh, Tevin Coleman, that guy is going to be the, you know.

A superstar on a franchise. And then, yeah. Injuries, things like that. Do you worry about the Kyle Shanahan roulette wheel where? I know that that's the worry that's been brought up on the show a lot. That roulette wheel lost one of, you know, its pieces in Matt Breda. So, yeah, I get concerned around the goal line on any of these teams that all of a sudden, it's same thing that would happen with Alvin Camarie, you'd be like, crap, Mark Ingram got that carry.

this player's on the field for that down. But I think Moster was given the opportunity. He earned that opportunity last year, and the teams moves in the offseason say they're very comfortable going forward with those two guys. If you have 498 carries, they're not coming from Garoppolo. So you distribute those across a couple of players. To me, they gives you a great opportunity to be a top-tier guy, and they're going to score a lot of points. They're going to move the football. So for me, Rahim Moster is one of those players that is being...

drafted behind where his true value could be. I like it. What's interesting is players like Mostard, compare it to the hype that you get on a player like Clyde Edwards-A-Layer. These are two great offenses in football. But Clyde-Drews-Layer, we see creeping forward and forward and forward in drafts, may have a slow start, doesn't have an established role. Mostert feels a little bit older, a little bit of ambiguity.

I don't know if people see the upside of Mosterd is kind of why I'm surfacing him today. The breakout potential of him is great based on where he's going in a draft. You're not drafting a guy who has to break out in order to capitalize on his value. Which is what Clyde Edwards-Layer would be right. But you're drafting a guy who still can break out and he doesn't even need to to return value on that spot. Weeks 12 through 19 last year, RB7. And second most rushing yards of all time in a playoff game. We saw it on display.

So I think he will have every opportunity. There's the hype train stuff in the off season, adding 10 pounds so you can take more carries, all of that stuff. But I just like what I saw in the field. Part of it is the eye test, and he passes that for me. Yep. You want to go ahead, Jay? Sure. Sure. I'll hop in here with a guy that, you know, I've talked about a few times and not just on this show. But I believe in Marquis, Hollywood Brown. And I think he is a genuine breakout.

player this season. Not only do I think he can be, I believe he will be a breakout candidate. He's a great wide receiver. Go look at reception and see how he fares. He's not a one-trick pony deep ball, you know, just because he's so fast and, you know, he's got one of those true, you know,

cards in his pocket that's just like, I'm faster than you. I beat you. You look at next gen stat numbers and you see the amount of space that defenders give Marquis Brown in his rookie year. It's, you know, near the top of the league. There's a reason for that. But then he's also a good route runner. He's got good hands. He's just a really solid wide receiver. Look at last year comes into the league as the number one drafted NFL wide receiver, even though he was injured because of that talent. And he's on a team.

that has, you know, the last year's MVP for quarterback, unlike, you know, the common breakout candidate of Terry McLaurin. We all love Terry McLaurin. But he's got Dwayne Haskins throwing him the ball, whereas Marquise Brown has Lamar Jackson. And you could say, okay, well, there's, there's touchdown regression coming for Lamar Jackson. That outlandish 9% of his passes went for a touchdown. Okay, that's not going to happen. Well, he also only threw the ball about 400 times. That,

is also likely to not repeat. I mean, that is so far beyond, that's lower than any other quarterback that played even 11 games. I mean, he was almost the same as Drew Brees, who missed a huge chunk of the season. Let me, let me ask you a question on him. When he was with Kyler Murray in his junior year, he put up 75 for 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns. In 12 games. College. What about, yeah, in college, yeah.

What about that line? Do you think that line is feasible in the NFL? Is that a ceiling line for Markey's Hollywood Brown? 75 receptions. I think 16 games, yeah. I mean, I have him statted for 74 receptions this year. You know, I've got him well over 100 targets because if you look at the target market share that I think he will actually command somewhere north of 20%. Last year it was 16%. I mean, you're talking about...

John Brown last year was like 23%. You know, it's like he's, he is going to be one of the two main targets there. And I'm not worried about Miles Boykin and Willie Sneed. So it's a smaller pie, but he's going to get a large slice of it. And he's extremely talented. Look at the first five weeks of last year. Then he got injured. He got that ankle injury in week five. Those first five weeks, he was on a 16-game target in his rookie year for 125 targets.

I mean, if he got 125 targets, he's an absolute breakout star. And when it comes to the touchdown opportunities, the real thing that makes a guy breakout in fantasy football, they're there. He had seven touchdowns.

in limited time where he's averaging like 59% of snaps, that's going to go up this season, and you can get tap passes with him. You know, you're around that goal line. Just give him a little in-round tap pass. He can also get an 83-yard touchdown like he did last year. I mean, this is a guy who I think has everything in his corner. They drafted him to be that guy. They want Lamar Jackson to grow as a passer as well. So I think passing volume goes up, his snap percentage goes up, him getting better in year two.

is there. There's no competition for targets outside of Mark Andrews. He's awesome. I'm a genuine believer that he's going to break out this year. Last year at the trade deadline in fantasy leagues, I didn't target anybody as much as I did Hollywood Brown in leagues that I had keeper opportunities. He seemed like the kind of player that due to the injury, what you see on film is an elite player.

Much like Tyree Kelly forces the defense to play him a certain way, which gives him that kind of space underneath. He won more on curl routes and out routes than he even did on nine routes because of what he makes the defense do. If I'm playing devil's advocate from Hollywood Brown, which I think is important, it's injury is a concern. He is not built like Des Bryant. He is a player that is built like Deshaun Jackson. That is a...

who has struggled with injuries at times as well. A lot of these speedsters do, and last year, Hollywood Brown did. So that would be one risk factor. The other one is just what do they need from him? The recipe for success last year did not require Hollywood to do that. So will they continue, you know, I think Lamar loves throwing him the football. If you watch when he's active, it's Mark Andrews, it's Hollywood Brown, as often as possible. So the breakout path is there. I think those would just be the things that jump out as.

Yeah, the injury risk is legit. Injured in college, injured. Obviously, I just said week five, his ankle injury. But I do think he is going to be, you know, when they really needed him, they eased him back from that ankle injury and played him about 50% of snaps. And then come playoffs, and you saw another crazy line, you know, 120 plus yards and double-digit targets. Brooks, look up his current average draft position for me. And if you don't have it, you got it. I want to know where he's going right now. He's not being drafted as a breakout.

Then that's what I love. Just like Rahim Moster. He's not being drafted as top. Wide receiver 29 in best ball. Yeah. Wide receiver 29, I'm happy to take him there because I think his ceiling is a wide receiver one. All right. Before I get to Mike's, percentage chance that you think Hollywood could be a wide receiver one this year. Percentage chance, I would say 20% as a wide receiver one. That's about where I'd have it. Yeah. It's pretty good. Before we move into. Mike didn't want to give his percentage. I would put it at.

10, maybe 10%, but a top 20 wide receiver, I think that to me is 65%. Cool. Before we move to my break, I pick, I want to thank today's sponsor. Simply Safe, fellas, what is the number one sign of a bad home security system? Answer, a home security system that is so complicated, you just never use it. And then that is exactly the type of security system that Simply Safe has spent a decade fighting against.

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