Busts & Value Picks + Caleb Saves Chicago? - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/21

But it's from the heart. I just want you to know that. There are a number of things that I will point to on Jason that are concerning. And I feel like the only way to really believe in Jason is excuse making to a large degree. It is either leaning on Collegiate Production. It's leaning on a change in offensive philosophy and coordinator and head coach. But it's not leaning on the signs that we saw in the football field last year. And what we saw in the field was concerning. Not even drawing attention to Weeks 1 through 6 where Terrace Marshall and Jonathan Mingo and Cadarius Tony and Alan Robinson had more fantasy points than he did because he was hurt. And I'm willing to allow that beginning of the season to be a bit of a washout. You would have loved to have seen him do more, but banged up. So we'll give you that excuse. Let's check that one off the box. Thank you. The problem is that he didn't make.

the kinds of splash plays over the duration of the season that I wanted to see beyond that point. And I genuinely believe that there are two wide receivers on the team that today are better wide receivers. They're better route runners. They're better, they have a better history of production. Tyler Lockett is still a better wide receiver. They went out and they gave Tyler Lockett more money. He's still a part of this offense. We are just tired of him in the fantasy world, so we want to move on to JSN. Over the last decade, and mind you, he averaged 37 yards per game last year. Over the last decade, here are the first round rookie wide receivers to average fewer than 40 yards per game with 10 games played. J.S.N's one of them. Quentin Johnston, Prashad Perryman, Devante Parker, Henry Ruggs, Nelson Aguilar, Jalen Rager, Corey Davis, Philip Dorset, Mike Williams. That's a bad list. It's not good company. What was the guards?

That was just if you played 10 games as a rookie or more and averaged less than 40 yards a game. That was the list. And you were a first rounder. And you were a first round pick. I didn't hear. Did you say Jameson Williams? Jameson Williams? Yeah. He didn't play 10 games as a rookie did? No. No. I think that's why he's out. I'm looking at 23. My apologies. And for whatever reason, like we have to make leaps with J. And we have to say, okay, well, you're not going to use them like he did last year. That's going to change because we have to use him differently for him to be productive because.

His average up the target was 6.4 yards. Yeah, it was vomit. So, I mean, he had 29 receptions behind the line of scrimmage. We did this once. And I'm not saying they're the same player. But the draft capital isn't that insanely far apart. Like, Rondale Moore, we kept saying, like, dude, this guy's great down the field. We need to use them that way. He got boxed in. And I'm worried about Jason getting boxed in when you have a better talent in D.K. McCaff on one side, a better talent in Tyler Lockett on the other side. a dependency on Gino Smith, who may or may not be the future. You don't have to pay a ton for JASN, but this is a bust. This is a bust section on the show. This is a bus segment. I think Jason is not going to deliver on the promise this year. And this is not something that, like eventually the first round draft capital becomes a fun factoid about a player, like Corey Coleman or John Ross or Johan Dotson or Cadarius Tony. Like those were first round picks and they got boxed in and they didn't pan out.

So it's not like there's a guarantee that just because he was drafted or dominated in college that his future is set to, you know, Devante Parker eventually had some good years. Like some of those guys, Mike Williams. Fifth year breakout, baby. Like it's not impossible. I'm not saying Jackson Smith and Jigba is a lifetime bust, but I do think there are two better wide receivers on this football team. That's all I'm going to say. Yeah, I mean, I hear some of your arguments. And it is upsetting from an emotional standpoint. because I still believe that he is very talented. And the utilization, the way they used him, Shane Waldron, it was just so gross. It was so nasty. And you're right. Obviously, if he gets boxed into that role, that's not going to work. Part of what we've talked about this offseason, the new grub system coming over, you saw so much success from the slot players. You know, Jalen Polk, you know, was in that role that JSN has now.

for this system. And I think the way they utilize him, you know, you can have a lot of value from the slot, but not if you're getting 29 catches behind the line of scrimmage. It's actually a point that I wanted to bring up was effectiveness in the slot. Like you have to be really effective. Like historically speaking in fantasy. If that's your full-time role. If that's your full-time role, you really have to do a lot. You can be an amazing asset to the team. and not deliver for fantasy. Sure. From the slot. So it just feels like maybe we're asking too much this year. I'm not sure, but that is, that's what I wanted to bring up. And moving on to the values. Not yet, sucker. Can I leave the room? No, you need to listen. You of all people need to listen. Mike, Mike doesn't need to listen. I don't know, probably. Can you hit the boo button for yourself? Yes, I can.

My bust pick is Marvin Harrison Jr. Rookie wide receiver from the Arizona Cardinals. Yeah, I know. Look, this pains me as much as anyone. I love Marv. He is not going to be a bust in the NFL. He is not going to be a bust in his career. He is the most surefire prospect I can ever remember. This is not about whether he is good or not. He's great. This is about whether where he's being drafted in fantasy football during his rookie season is a good pick. That's all this is. And I don't believe it's a good pick when I look at the opportunity cost that you can, you know, the shots you can take on him. And really it's almost more, when I look at my strategy, it's like the wide receivers here at the break, at that one two turn. Like I think he would be a good pick at the two three turn, but that's not where he's going. He's going.

ahead of a lot of guys and right around guys that I feel like there's a big tear break, the Devante Adams, where it's like, ah, he's older, you know, he wasn't consistent last year, he's got a bad quarterback, okay, Chris Olavi, you know, he's the one, but he's got Derek Carr, Drake London could break up, but he hasn't done it yet, and then that's why Marv is going super high because you're like, well, what if he is? the next greatest player and you get that top five breakout rookie season. I'm not saying that it's impossible that that happens, but the odds are that that doesn't happen. So when we look at drafting, you know, first of all, he's the highest drafted rookie wide receiver of all time. There's never been anyone close to this. The second highest was a fourth round draftic. In fact, the second highest is Malik neighbors this season when you look at average draft position of a rookie wide receiver. He's going as the wide receiver nine. And if you look at the

The opportunity costs, the expectation over the last six years, a top 10 wide receiver has averaged 148 targets, over 100 receptions, 1,366 receiving yards, 9.6 receiving touchdowns. That's what you're going to need for this pick to pay off, for him to be a top 10 guy. Right now, his Draft King's Sportsbook line for receiving yards is 1,000 and a half yards. Not 1366. 9.6 touchdowns as a rookie. You sure 1,000 and a half is than 1,500 yards? I'm sure. Okay. 1,000.5. It's a high bar to reach. It's a high bar for a rookie. And if he comes out and hits 1,100 yards and 7 touchdowns on 80 receptions, that is an amazing rookie season. You will absolutely.

not have made a good draft pick at the one-two turn, getting that kind of a production. So when I look at it, you've got to put names into, okay, how else could you play? Are you taking him over Kyron Williams? Look, I was going to say there is a piecemaking that can happen right here. And it's not selecting a different wide receiver. Right. It's selecting the opportunity costs at running back, which more often than not I would do despite loving Marvin. I feel like the bust pick for me really here. is the beginning of the second wide receivers. I feel like those are mistakes because when I look at the wide receivers you can make up in rounds three through five, there are names we just look, Malik neighbors in the fourth, Cooper Cup, D.K. McKaff. I mean, maybe they don't. Would you take Pacheco over him? Over Marvin? No, no, just because of the ADP game. I'm really, that was, purely for our League of Record mock draft they did last night. I know you've got the fifth pick.

And I want to know if you're taking Marvin, honestly. So I just think if you go a different route, there's a couple running backs there that I think are more valuable. And then there are chock full of the waddles, Devante Smith's rounds later that I think are going to produce pretty similar to similarly to Marvin Harrison Jr. So it pains me as a Cardinals fan, but I think where he's going in drafts is a bad. Yeah, it's unfortunate that, you know, bust. Four letters, very powerful word. But it means something different in fantasy. He's my wide receiver 14. So it's like, is that a bust of a rookie season for Marvin Harrison Jr.? No, that's awesome. I do. But if you draft him as the wide receiver 9, he finishes as the wide receiver 14, you aren't going to be happy. Do you agree, Mike, or do you think that Marvin might just, maybe the 1,000 and a half will be what I defined it as? I agree that the risk is.

tremendous. And this is not the risk on the player of all three of us, despite how our projections, our feelings of evaluating the situation. Andy, you're at 10, at least with the most recent projections. That's still a spot behind his ADP, which that's not a ton, of course. But when you're in the top 10 of a position, that is a gap. I have him right now at 11. where he's being drafted as the wide receiver 9 on Sleeper. So it's, it just comes down to how much risk are you willing to take on because it is. The numbers when you actually see them laid out of what he has to hit to pay off at that or even, even exceed your expectations, it's a gigantic season, gigantic. All right. I'm going to take a break, come back with some values.

One final thought on Marvin Harrison as we jump into the values is there is a, I think one thing going into the equation is fun, enjoyment. Yeah. The type of player you want to put on your roster that you don't want to miss on. Nobody wants to take, I don't know, somebody going back behind him and miss out on that special year, especially in keeper leagues where the potential is to hold that guy. Oh, yeah. I mean, a Keeper League is, is, that, that does ring different because where you're going and those other wide receivers around him, you know, are you going to want Devante Adams in a Keeper League or Marr, for sure? All right, let's jump into some values. Values. Well, we'll, we'll go in the same order, Mike. You can kick it off and follow up my hungry for more with the starter. Yeah, the current starter from the Cleveland Browns. It's Jerome Ford who.

I don't understand the ADP. I do not get it. Jerome Ford last year had to step into a big time role because Nick Chubb went down to the devastating injury very early in the season. And then it was Jerome Ford time. And while it was not, this isn't the real sexy. Oh, man, I'm getting weak winning performances from Jerome Ford. He was in the top 24. The bar that we need people to be in 11 times. That's one more time that Brees Hall was in the top 24. Again, not saying they're the same player, but just that he averaged nearly 16 opportunities per game. He is a good pass catcher. He was third on the Browns in targets per route run, 44 receptions. That's more than Sequin Barclay had this past year. He had five receiving touchdowns. That could be a bar that could be definitely harder to hit.

Again, but only Christian McCaffrey had more among the running back position. He is a competent player, and he is going to be the starter on the Cleveland Browns for at least a chunk of the season. Maybe it's only four games. I don't care. Those four games, that's a good percentage of the season. Should you build your team heavy with wide receivers and some onesie positions, Jerome Ford is sitting in here just as a Christmas gift. to someone that can be your RB2 for the first quarter of the season while you try and figure out more guys. Or Nick Chubb is older, has had the same knee destroyed multiple times, and Nick Chubb really never gets back to the player that he was, that you would hope he could get to. And it's just Jerome Ford's time for half the season, 75% of the season. So it's just, like, the fact that you can get.

Someone who's going to see that many opportunities for, I don't know that I'm as bullish on the Browns as Andy is, but I think they're going to be a good offense. Like, Stefansky has given us good stuff, even with that, even with bad quarterback play. So getting him at running back 40 is, it's an absolute value and a steal for me. Like, Trey Benson. Trey Benson is going right around Jerome Ford, Blake Corum. They're going around Jerome Ford. What are we doing here? We are seeing the dismissal of the boring. And Jerome Ford, I had him on my roster last year. Watching him play is mostly boring. He's effective, but he's boring, which is what my pick is here. I'm going boring as well in a lot of people's minds. But so very much the number one on this team that I think will be better than people think on offense. And I'm going Brian Robinson, Jr.

I'm going Brian Robinson as my value pick. I've been talking him up this offseason. Brian Robinson is boring. Boring. And he was so boring that he was the number, he was the RB4 in fantasy football for 11 weeks to start last year on the highest passing volume team in the National Football League. That's what Brian Robinson was for your team. And this is a guy that can catch the football. That's been the evolution of Brian Robinson. He can catch it. He will catch it. He'll be a part of what we've seen with Cliff Kingsbury and effectiveness on the ground. Like Kingsbury's pass rate in Arizona was much lower than people thought. He ran the football a ton. And Brian Robinson was super effective. He had a hamstring injury at the end of the year. But this was a, this was one of the biggest MVP's of fantasy that you found late in your draft last season that you started plugging him.

in every single week. He's been drafted in the late ninth round as the RB 34. So the efficiency went up in year two. I like what I see on film every time I watch Brian Robinson. He brings you the intangible factors of an every downback that coaches love, clearly, that got him play ahead of a spunkier Antonio Gibson that's going to give him play in front of a... older Austin Echler, and that's going to get him an opportunity to catch the football. They're still searching for a wide receiver too on this roster. So to me, Brian Robinson is the most boring late round running back that you should take on your team. And every comment that I've seen out of Cliff Kingsbury in this roster and the way they've played it in the preseason, you know, this has been very, very good under Cliff Kingsbury when you're a running back. Kenyon Drake, James Connor, 10 rushing touchdowns was the average.

Brian Robinson loves the end zone. I was going to say the, we know about Cliff Kingsbury is, look, he loves the Route Bush for when he has superstars like DeAndre Hopkins, got to keep him close to the line of scrimmage. And number two, what we know about Cliff Kingsbury is his favorite play to call. For sure. Of all time is when you get close to the goal line, no trickery, no shenanigans. We are higher tea than you. We're going to run up the middle. It's going to be a handoff. to that running back that you see and he's going to go nowhere but straight. Yeah. Did it work? No. Do it again. It's going to work this time. Did it work? No. It's going to work this time. You want to see how many totally at the next season we're going to talk about Brian Robinson and how many carries inside the five he received simply because they'll do it three or four times in a row. We lived that Cliff Kingsbury experience and it actually ended up working. I mean, James Carter had a lot of rushing touchdowns.

from inside the one. If these guys are on the board at the same time, Mike, are you looking Brian Robinson or are you looking Jerome Ford? Better offense versus better player. I mean, if it's the two of them together, I'll go with Brian Robinson. They're separated by about a round. So you can get both of these guys. But Brian Rob, like Jerome Ford, I still think he's a rental, but it's just how long does that? How long before your landlord comes in here and evicts you from the building? Brian Robinson should be the starter all year. I think some of the years of my past, when I look at values, they're easy to pick. They're guys that are going to beat their ADP, but they're not really guys that necessarily help you win a fantasy football championship. I worry a little bit with both these guys that it's like, I totally think both these guys beats their ADP.

They're better than the running back 34. They're better than the running back 40. But are they good enough to really like truly change the landscape? And that's part of the roster construction. I think these guys are good if you loaded up on wide receivers. If you're going zero running back and then you can find guys that are just going to give you enough points to hold those positions while you dominate elsewhere. But that's why my value pick. To jump on that, I am in full agreement. I think, like, if you're riding the whole year and Brian Robertson and Jerome Ford are your running backs, no, that's not going to be strong enough to win the championship. But it's, it's, you need depth at the position. And these are guys that help you in the meantime. They're Band-Aids. That you can get really, these are not expensive at all. You just put the Band-Aid on. They help you out for a couple weeks throughout the season. Like maybe you're waiting on.

insurance running backs to turn into starters because of injury. In the meantime, while those guys are getting five opportunities a game, Brian Robinson and Jerome Ford are going to be seeing 15 plus opportunities a game. Yeah, yeah, it's an interesting discussion, but it was neat to see last year that Brian Robinson didn't just have, you know, he had the high upside games to finish number one on the week, to finish number two on the week, to have some performances that were. because of the receiving work way higher than people expected. Yeah, that was what was so surprising was his receiving work. I just worry with Austin Echler there now, is he going to lose some of that receiving work? It was a concern to me, but Gibson's a great pass catcher, and he was part of that offense last year, and all the commentary has been so positive about his past catching chops. I look at it as neutral. It's so funny, because I don't feel like he came into the league as some past catching extraordinary talent, but he has been used that way.

since he's been in the NFL. And scoring through the year. Four touchdowns through the year. But go on. Yeah, my value pick is a guy I do think can help you actually bring home a championship. And he is undervalued. In fact, he's the lowest. He has ever been drafted since his breakout. And this is a guy I've been off of the last couple of years from the boom bust potential. It's the tight end. for the San Francisco 49ers, George Kittle. You're going to call him a wide receiver? I was. But, I mean, he's got enough receiving yards to be a wide receiver. He is, you guys have, I think you guys have persuaded me towards Kittle or taking another look at Kittle. Over the last month or so, we did the ranking show. Mike, I think you have them really high, or maybe it's Jason. But I think you, you had me take another look, and it was, it was juicier than.

than I remember. Yeah, I mean, this is a guy who has been a top five tight end in five of the past six years. So it's like to say he should be a top five tight in this year seems like that's way in the range of outcomes. And, you know, he's, uh, it worked, it worked both ways in those years. Like to finish top five, but also the ride was bad sometimes. Well, and you were usually drafting him, you know, as the, as the Titan two. Right. As the Titan three. You were chasing that 2018. Oh, that one record breaking year. He had 215 fantasy points that year. And then since then it's been 180, one, a down year where he only played eight games, but then 162, 170, 170. So it's, it's about your expectations of what George Kittles. He's not going to give you the 215.

Unless, look, he has paths. Yeah, if Iyuk gets traded and he becomes more of a number two, number three target in this offense. But even in 2023, last year, he let all tight ends in receiving yards. He had the most. He had the most 20 plus yard plays. His yards per route run were the best in the league. He's a super good player. And it's easy to label him as a boom, bust, and move on. But I want to highlight two things. his draft capital, and his splits with Brock Purdy. Because that's who he's playing with now. He's got 23 games so far with Purdy. 12 of the 23 are 10 plus fantasy points. 52%. That's a pretty solid floor for a tight end. To give you a frame of reference, that is a higher percentage than DJ Moore, who was a wide receiver won last year. In terms of 10 plus point games? Yes, 10 plus point games. He had nine of those 23 with 15.

plus points. Those are the weak winning performances from a tight end. When you get 15 plus, you're like, oh, man, good luck dealing with that. That is an awesome boom potential. We've known he's got that. Only Kelsey is better in the last two years of the percentage of real true weak winning performances. And then if you look at the bust rate, fewer than seven points, real bad games. He has 10 of those, which sounds pretty bad, 43%. But the more I looked into it, all the elite tight ends busts. Sam Leporta, last year had 36% bust rate. He had six games where he busted. Kelsey was at 27%. So I think where he's going, because his positional draft position, you know, used to be the Titan 2, Titan 2, Titan 3. He is the Titan 7 right now. He's being drafted oftentimes behind, you know, Kyle Pitts and other people that we're just got named fatigue with George Kittle. And he does have a path for superstardom.

Should Brandon I. You not end up being on this roster, which any minute, he's probably going to sign a long-term deal. I mean, it's not just that. It's Brandon I. You could be on this offense. He gets hurt. Debo, it's kind of his favorite thing to do is to miss games. So there are paths. And it's, well, even CMC is like, it's like a race to get him ready for week one. Yeah. And I think it's the fact that you are drafting him a. appropriately and not still chasing the dragon of 2018. I'm with you, Jay. I think that he is a great value. Yeah, I think you guys have kind of opened my eyes on Kittal a little bit in terms of where I have him ranked and maybe making some tweaks. So those are our individual value picks on today's episode, following up those bus picks. And one more reminder, head over to megalobole.com or Jason will explode. He'll explode either way.

But really fun to come and play in the largest fantasy football league in the known universe. Megalobole.com is all the details on how the league is played and the rules and how many people make the playoffs and how the draft times go because we are drafting from the 31st of August through September 4th, I believe. The day before kickoff will be the last draft. Lots of times to choose from to pick something that you... prefer and the three of us are in uh i think different time slots yes so you got a chance to play with us even this year a gentleman never tells his draft slot yes okay so where are you then oh okay boom roasted you're the scoundrel okay that's it we're done for now but don't worry a brand new segment tomorrow you do not want to miss oh man take swap goodbye

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