Top 10 Running Backs + Late Round Steals - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/8

That's interesting to me. Like you really do need some foundation of the getting into the end zone. And 1,589 total yards, not rushing yards, but total yards. You're involved in the passing game more often than not because not a lot of guys rush for over 1,500 yards. That's normally the, what, Derek Henry, Nick Chubb last year, Josh Jacobs. Not a lot of them get up over that. Mark, all right. At number 10. And we'll talk about him. He's on an excused absence right now. Oh, man. Who is now already our number 11? Yeah, that's true. Because between yesterday's showing today, with the adjustments we make daily on our rankings, he actually fell out. So, I mean, you could just omit him because he's living in the like, right. He's living in between shows. Between shows, like in the upside down. He would have been on yesterday's show. Ranking purgatory. He's in between shows is Jonathan Taylor.

Who is, you got to get me out of here. Potentially in between teams. I mean, we don't even know right now, but it's excused absences to now be away from the team when you already weren't practicing with the team. Like, this is good. He's like, I can't even be around you. It's getting scarier and scarier. I can't even be on the footballer's podcast. He's saying, I'm in between shows, guys disappear. Smoke bomb. So, I mean, Jonathan Taylor right now is a step one, super talented, highly productive, potentially dominant. League winning style running back. And it's coming off an injury late in year on a team that doesn't, we don't know if he's going to return off an injury that, look, we've been told he's rehabbing his ankle, which, hello, that was the injury from last year. I can't even hear Jonathan Taylor an ankle in the same sentence without getting like sweaty. It is super scary to me because I genuinely don't know whether or not this is the ankle because, you know, it's an excused indefinite, you know, amount of time. So it sounds like it's money.

It sounds like it's like they're having contract issues. That ankle would feel better. Yeah, the ankle would be fine. If, you know, he signs an extension, all of a sudden he'd be back in practice. But also they're saying, you know, it's the ankle. And if it's the same ankle that he had surgery on this offseason and that put him out last year, the timeline says he shouldn't be having ankle issues. So it's hard to know what to believe here, but it scares me. Like my risk meter. goes up with Jonathan Taylor because if he's still dealing with this ankle, I mean, we're four weeks away from the start of real NFL football. Oh, baby. That's just, that's not a great situation. We saw what happened to him last year with that injury. So if he's not ready to go, very, very scary. Obviously, the talent enormous, but we've talked a little bit about how it's difficult to have a running back with a super mobile quarterback. Absolutely. It changes things.

Look at the running backs for the Baltimore Ravens. It's not that they're inept at catching passes. It's just, what's Lamar Jackson going to do? Is he going to dump the ball off or is he going to use his superpower and go run the ball, potentially gaining 10 to 15 yards? Jonathan Taylor is such a difficult player to gauge because... He has basically all the red flags that we could think of right now. Injury, contract dispute, mobile quarterback, rookie quarterback. On yesterday's show when talking about Miles Sanders gave the stats of the starting running backs for rookie quarterbacks, if a rookie plays the entire time, it is historically terrible for these running backs. So I am just, I am so freaked out by Jonathan Taylor.

And he's getting closer and closer. Of course, maybe you're in a draft, you're in your home league, and somehow he falls into the second round, and then, okay, maybe I'm going to take a shot here. But he is rapidly approaching that I'm just willing to be wrong. And I expect Jonathan Taylor to have a great season, but I'm not going to inherit that risk on my team while there's other players that I feel far more confident in that range that he is going. If you want to mess around with those variables, I'd rather do it in the fifth, sixth, seventh round with a player or not. The cost is so high. So we all have them below ADP. I mean, you're staring down Jonathan Taylor or Nick Chub. Well, what are you doing? I'm going Chuck for sure. Derek Henry. Give me Henry. I'm going Derek Henry. And then honestly, like, I'll take Josh Jacobs with his risk right now over, over Jonathan Taylor, because at least if he comes back, he's not dealing with any injury. And he's in a system and a head coach that you already are familiar with.

And he was highly productive in. Pollard, I'll probably go that direction, too, over Jonathan Taylor. You started to get a little bit more upside, mindful when you get around ETIN and Gibbs and maybe nausea. But yeah, it's bad vibes. That's why he's in between shows. He's in between ranks as well. At nine, Romandre Stevenson. I've got him at 12. Mike has him at three still. Still, we're still there. I feel like this is Hodor. Like you got the Hoh! Like, how are you keeping this rank? I haven't seen anyone sign yet. I just, it's a wild ranking. Mike and I, or not Mike and I, Jason and I have him at 11 and 12 and I feel like this, that's totally like, that's a lot of respect. That's tons of respect. We're giving him so much respect. He's really, really good. And I understand where Mike is coming from in the sense that you've got a workhorse roll, a depth chart with nobody there. He's a player that can actually catch the ball very, very well, which is rare for someone that is 225 plus pounds. 17% target share.

17% and the New England Patriots offense should be better. It's a pretty big should, but you're going from coaches who don't know how to run an offense to Bill O'Brien who knows offense. He's not really a head coach guy, but he knows what he's doing. Let's talk him in and Monroe is going to be great. Let's talk him in and moving him before. I've got a point for it. Philly to start the year. Then Miami. Tough defense, in my opinion. Tough front seven. Then the Jets on the road. And then you play Dallas's front seven. Can I talk you into moving them to four? Maybe five. Okay. Well, let me try, Mike. All right. You're turn, Jason. If you watched the horrifically.

putrid stinky offense last year of the Patriots. It was Ryan by... That was very generous of you. That was very kind by Joe Judge and Matt Patricia. You would watch Mack Jones screaming on the sideline that he wants to be allowed to throw the ball down the field, but every single play developed underneath and he had to check the ball down over and over and over. And while Ramandre has the ability to be a real good pass catching back, I think that part of the reason that he was just... constantly targeted with these little targets is because the offense was not good. I think an offense that opens it up more, we'll throw the ball more to the wide receivers, less to the running back here. So I, that is one, you know, systematic difference I see in the Patriots offense that scares me about Ramandre Stevenson keeping that level of a target share, let alone. And that's while he's alone, not just, not just if someone else comes and signs. Yeah, someone else could sign and.

Sure, maybe they're going to try to go. Did I get you the four? No, but maybe they're going to try and go down. I've got another strategy. Maybe they're going to try and go down the field. Right. Okay. Devante Parker. I'll give you Devante Parker. Now who? Juju. Down the field to Juju. Tyquan Thornton Thornton may not ever see the field this year. The vibes for Thornton out of camp have been horrible. Quick detour. Hunter Henry underrated. Go on. Sure. I know I'm okay with that, but I'm saying like they just they don't have the people. To be truly a vertical passing game. I got a new strategy. Okay. You're a liar. I think you're a dirty liar. I'm looking at your rankings. There's no way you're taking them over Austin Eccler. No, I don't, but just because they're ranked here, that doesn't mean I have to draft them that way. I'm still going to be, I'm still going to use the 80. No, no, no, no.

I'm still going to use the ADP because I know that... Because you can get Romandre in the third. I know that chumps like you are like, Romandre is the RB12. I'll be like, yeah, you're right. You guys are sure right. Don't, don't you, you better draft him as the running back 12 because I'm going to get a host and Ackler and then things are going to come back and I'm still going to get Ramandre. Okay. That's a fair point. Look, I do think they're going to add a back to this team. If they don't, Remandre has the potential to finish.

higher than where I have him ranked. I'll put it that way. Look, we're at ADP. Jason and I are full respect, third round pick, top of the third. It is harder to stare that name down than it is Chubb Jacobs. Yes. Yeah, and I'm not, I have him projected to finish there, but again, we're not out. We're only out compared to Mike. You need to be smart about where you are drafting guys. And then my final here. for Remandre Stevenson, Jason to talk you in moving him up. Oh, okay. Oh, all right. I'm listening. I'm listening. The round mound of touchdown. I love the name. He's going to 10. He's going to that's all it took. That's all it took. We're fickle people. All these great arguments were making. That can't move the needle. But round mound? Yeah. The round mound of touchdown. Yeah. I like it a lot. Like it a 17%. If you're saying Remandre Stevenson could potentially hit.

a 65% market share on the ground and a 15% target share, those are sensational numbers. If you give him 70 receptions, we'll be wrong. Yeah, 100%. Which is what he was on pace for during the back half of last year. Tony Pollard. Coming in at number eight. Tony. Tony. 26 years old, darling of the fantasy underrated. world for a couple of years. He's great. He's not underrated anymore. Thank you, Jason. Tony. Oh, yeah, no, we got you. Okay. Got you. How's the 40, how your 40's treating you? Pretty good. Pretty good. Am I, uh, you're talking about my time? Uh, no, no, I'm not. Uh, RB 9 by ADP. I got him at 7, Mike at 6, Jason at 9. Um, he is explosive.

He is valuable. They have not added more backs. They have really subtracted this offseason. Malik Davis. What did you get? Kyle put Deuce Vaughn's name in in like size four font, man. Everybody else's name is normal. And Deuce Vaughn's written in like size. Let's check this out. Oh, man. That's real small. Ronald Jones suspended. Will Tony Pollard really get this amount of work? Does it make any sense to give him this amount of work? Because his efficiency will inevitably go down. If he's the guy that's going to get the fourth and one, if he's the guy that's going to be in on goal line, you're not going to see the yards per carry. You're not going to see those numbers as high, but he would still be very valuable. I know we have the fears of the Lamar Miller efficiency change that happened. He was the most dynamic back in the world in Miami, and then he goes to Houston, and he's a starter, and it's different.

We know they're going to throw the ball a lot. We know that that's kind of the MO for Mr. Kellan Moore. So, you know, if Tony Pollard is who he has been and you just proportionally move up his opportunities, he's the RB1, okay? I mean, that's the sure. That's the truth. Like, he'd be the RB1 if you just. took his efficiency and just gave him twice as many opportunities. Yeah, if he stays, you know, carrying at 5.2 a clip and getting almost 10 yards per reception and then you just take the volume and you move it northward, absolutely. He's an electric back that's going to get a lot of opportunity. The easiest way to articulate that is to say last year with Ezekiel Elliott getting a ton of work, Tony Pollard finishes the running back seven and he missed a game.

So he should be better than that this year. But that's just not how football works. We've seen this situation plenty of times in the past. And when he is now the dude, I have no doubt that he will get more work because he only had, what, 193 carries last year? He'll be in the 200s. Is it 220 or is it 250? You know, it's probably closer to the 220. I don't think Tony Pollard is built. It's just fine. Yeah, that's fine. If his passing work stays the same. I mean, obviously, he's on this top 10 show because we think he's a really, really good back. But I am skeptical that he will be able to keep the efficiency for a team that I think will be worse on offense, worse, you know, offensive coordinator-wise. You know, it's one of those things where I was really, really hot for Tony Pollard at the beginning of this offseason. When it looked like when they let Zeke go.

And it seemed like he was going to have the show to himself. I was like, this is a top five guy locked in. And the more I've thought about it, the more I realize like he's probably a back half running back one. Let me correct something I said earlier. I inferred Kellan Moore is there this year. Calamore is departing. Correct. And this offense is going to be potentially, like you said, you don't like the output as much moving to Schottenheimer defensive oriented. But. But Pollard is still the guy in the offense. He's still the guy. He's incredibly talented. He's explosive. He's the type of running back that can hit a 50-plus yard touchdown, and that's not every single running back in the NFL. If we get the numbers from 193 to that 220 area, and then, like, last year, Zeke was about a 5% target share. I mean, and Tony Pollard was sitting in at 11%.

If that 11 bumps up just a couple percentage points, you know, 13, maybe we get that 14, but just up to 13% or so, looking at the depths of where it is right now, that seems like a, like, I don't think that's a wild proclamation to say Tony Pollard, who was the number two behind Ezekiel Elliott, gets 30 more carries and gets 2% higher in the target share. I don't think that's a crazy thing to say. Yes, he won't be as efficient if he is the main guy each and every single week, but he's just such an incredible player that I think that Tony Pollard has, he has top three upside, and that's what we want. We want guys who can actually finish in the top three, I want to take the chance on it. He does definitely have that upside.

And when you're taking him, and he's what, at the back of the second round right now? So where he's going, I think there is value to go northward. But if he goes from 11% target share to 13% target share, it's still possible he doesn't go northward in total targets because the pace of play for this team and the passing volume could be down. There have been 10 running backs with fewer than 650 touches in the first four years and had the opportunity. to make the jump. Only one of them really made the jump. Austin Echler had a fantasy finish. His best one was six. He jumped up to two. The rest, Kenyon Drake and Tevin Coleman and C.J. Anderson and Mark Ingram and even Jamal Charles, his first year going up in opportunities. You don't generally see a fantasy finish higher. I think what you said there, I think he's going to stay around the same finish, which is where he's being drafted. And I think that that's a good year from Tony Pollard. Yes. I mean, that is delivering on draft value. And he gives you.

It's going to say he gives you actual spike weeks. This won't just be a consistent. Oh, he's pretty good. No, he will give you week-winning weeks. But back to Tony Pollard. It's the Bejohn Minute. Number seven, Bejohn Robinson being drafted now as the RB3. Yeah, baby. Jason and I have him at five. Mike at nine. I'm too low. Three might be right. here with Bijon. I mean, the equation with Bejohn Robinson is pretty simple for fantasy. There aren't many that get to do what he'll get to do. So, you know, you've got to be the, you've got to be Sequin, right? Historically, you've got to be McCaffrey. You know, that's, the list is not long. I mean, because when you start to look at it and you go, okay, well, it's not a chub situation because he's going to catch a ton of passes. It's not Henry who's been ranked up there. It's not.

Alvin Camara even from days gone by where he was the top three because Camara had, you know, there's always 181 carries. Yeah. 182 carries. Maybe 200. This is 250 carry potential with 70, 80, 90, 100 target potential. That's just worth the investment. Jason is getting a little bit. I'm so excited. Is it the climped? I've, is it hot in here? Look. I was obviously a massive fan of Bijon pre-Nefel draft. We had the whole Bijon minute, the Bijan watch for the NFL draft. I was so excited. Loved where he landed. And then I spent some time really thinking people are going a little too nuts here for this rookie that we haven't seen, taking him third off the board. That's too high. And I have since changed. If you want to take him one, you take him one.

I agree with that. I think that's fine. I believe he's a player that is as good a pure running back as there is in the league. I mean, the Chubb and Henry's style is different and better in a bruising way. But he is as good a running back as there exists. And he is Christian McCaffrey levels of past catching as a running back. He's elite in both. He has the draft capital that says they're going to feed him the rock. You look at this team last year, and the biggest knock is, well, they're probably not a great team, a great offense. Desmond Ritter is he really going to be able to support a lot. But you just look at last year with potentially an even worse Marcus Marietta and team-wise, the Atlanta Falcons running game was awesome. You put Cordero Patterson and Huntley and Algeria together, and they were excellent.

I don't have any problem. Like I've got him ranked at five. That's probably around where I will draft him. But if you want to take him ahead of anyone, I don't mind it because I think he has the potential to be the number one player in fantasy this year. The schedule is really nice. The schedule's good. You don't have like, you know, I was trying to look at the back half of the season because if you combine, generally rookies coming out of college, like there's a potential when they get the opportunity from week one. It's a long season in the NFL. It's longer than the college game. And you'd say, okay, sometimes these guys tire out a little bit. Maybe the schedule at the end of the season has a bunch of tough matchups combined with him having a lot of work. I mean, that is something that happens. But it's pretty juicy. You're not busting. Like it's a busproof pick.

And we've got them at seven. Like we're below ADP. So the reasons for that, it's, you know, part of it's the confidence in the offense and those opportunities. We don't know how they're going to work in the other backs. Sometimes you do that when you've had the kind of success that they have had on, you know, they were a great running team last year. Alger over a thousand yards. Like, you know, there's some unexpected variables because we haven't seen it yet. Mike, you're the lowest. So I just, give me the. Oh, I just, I said, I'm too low on him.

I just went and looked. I gave him, you know, just a couple more percentage points on the ground in a, you know, points or two for the target share. What can go wrong? A bunch of three and outs all year long. To me, that's a concern. And the other thing that could go wrong is Tyler Alger and Cordero Patterson are used just more than we want. Right. That's really the outlet. It's not a talent. And he's not going to, he's not going to be bad. Like if Alger is involved, this isn't going to be like, oh, he's the running back 23.

I don't see a world where he's outside of the top 12. Josh Jacobs comes in at six now. I've recently moved him down a little bit because of the variable factors. He's the RB8 by ADP, so we're still a little bit above that. He was completely unstoppable last year. You can go watch the film. It wasn't an isolated play here or there. It was every down, every play all year long, better than you. Fifth most rushing yards over the last decade at the position. Those are those kind of numbers, that kind of efficiency over that many touches is not an accident. I don't know why some people seem to think it is. You can't rush for 4.9 of carry on that many chances. 340 rushing attempts. Yeah, and have 1653 rushing yards.

and it's a fluke. Like that's not a, that's not possible. Not that it's like going to change your view or fantasy ranking because it's just, this is a list for fun, but you know, the NFL does their top 100 players every off season, players vote on this. Josh Jacobs was number 12, as in the player said he was the 12th best player in the NFL last year. I'm running back. Right. Player, not offensive player. All positions. In fact, one spot in front of his teammate, Devante Adams. So that's how much respect the players had for him. We've talked a lot about these guys. I'm trying to find different angles to discuss them than we have in the past. So for Josh Jacobs, his ADP right now is the back of the second round and he's the RB8. Scoop him up, man. Scoop him up. That's my opinion is he is absolutely going to play as a Raider this year.

I'll just be surprised. And if that's, if that is your belief, as it is my belief, then the back of the 12th is a screaming value. Because if that comes to fruition, and he is the starting running back week one through week 17, barring injury, they're going to just do it again. They're not, they're not going to be like, hey, I want to split time with Zamir White because you're having a good camp. He's on a franchise tag. He's not their long-term future. And he's the best player to win games. They're going to put him out there. They're going to put him out there. They're going to throw the ball to him. They're going to let him carry the ball. I mean, you look at the snap percentages last year. It was like, 60%. You know, he was like the lead back. And then they're like, let's just have him be out there 85, 90% of the snaps. He's really good. I think they do it again. Which, I mean, you almost are forced to if you're Josh McDaniels because you are potentially going to lose your job again as a head coach.

I was going to ask the question, Mike, real quick, that other angle of tomorrow he's in camp. What happens to his average job position? I think it goes up slightly. I don't think that it will skyrocket by any means, because despite him having a great season, and historically, he's been really solid for fantasy. He was the RB8 in 2020, but this was the first elite. season we've ever seen from Josh Jacobs. So you're going to have a lot of the fantasy football population that's like that was a one-off. He won't be as good this year. And like I have seen even more extreme. I've seen he sucks. Well, that's a silly thing to say. Because like I have my concerns that maybe that was just a magic season because that that does happen in the NFL.

Players who are good, they just have one outlier, incredible season where everything bounced their way, you know, stayed healthy for the entire 17 games, stayed healthy despite that workload that he was getting. And to play devil's advocate, Jason, I think that Josh Jacobs not being in training camp, it really is giving Zemir White a huge opportunity. The notes have been strong on him. He was a, I believe, Kyle was a fourth round. Fourth round rookie last year. So that's a day three pick. Generally, that's nothing to be scared of, especially as a rookie. But now it's another year in the system, and he's getting all of the opportunity to shine and try and convince the coaches. You've got to get this guy on the field. So I think that is a potential red flag here for Josh Jacobs. I think Jacobs is great.

I'm starting to, the longer he holds out, the more concerned I will be, that Zemir White will factor in way more than he did last year. He's got to look a lot better on the field than he did last year. Yes. That's got to be the difference. And they have Abdullah and company. Number five, Saquan Barkley. He is in camp. He is back on the franchise tag wink, wink. RB4 by ADP, Jason, you're the highest at number three. Don't really blame you there, but why do you love Sequin? Well, I just love any player that, you know, he doesn't have question marks. Now that he's in camp, he signed that contract. He has no competition. He catches the ball. He's very talented. Good head coach. Yeah, I mean, he's going to touch the ball 350 plus times for sure. Like, that's just a gimmy outside of being injured. And if you know you're going to touch the ball 350 times, you go, okay, well, is a player talented?