The TRUTH About Fantasy TEs + Reaper Returns - Fantasy Football Podcast for 2/8

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You want answers? I think I'm entitled. You want answers. I want the truth. You can't handle the truth. It's our final truth episode, is it not? It sure is because it's the tight ends and we saved the best for last. So for a tight end, we're defining a great game as more than 15 fantasy points, good games, more than 10, and bust games fewer than seven.

And we don't hold the old miss games against them. So we're just looking at when we talk about consistency for a player. Love breaking these down. Mark Andrews came in at number one. Oh, man. With a consistency rank of number two, he was less consistent in the first half of the year, but the most consistent tied in in the second half. 154 targets, 107 receptions, 13161 yards, and nine touchdowns, which...

I don't remember the exact number, but I think he's in the top five or six in total receiving yards of any player. So, I mean, 1,361 receiving yards, nine touchdowns, 35% great game, 65% good, rarely busted, third most tight-in targets ever in a season. Essentially, whatever happened on offense in Baltimore on any given week, different quarterback, different injury, different situation, different running back, who, by the way, I looked up the...

Running back after contact metrics. Surprise, surprise. Baltimore was dead last in the entire league. What? No. But the stalwart. Freeman? Yeah. Latavius? Tyson left bell. Yeah, that's the better one. Tyson really didn't get a share. But Mark Andrews was the consistency for that offense at every turn. And the recipe of just throwing him the ball no matter what always seemed to work.

Do you worry at all about how much, you know, came when it wasn't Lamar Jackson there? Do you think that next year his target share or any of those numbers comes down significantly into the offense and he becomes less of the dominant one of the offense? Yes, 100%. You do. That's why I said what I did at the beginning of the show, where it might be the time to trademark Andrews in a dynasty thing. If you could go get a Kyle Pitts and stuff.

because this is the peak opportunity for him. This was no one left. I mean, Hollywood Brown dealt with injuries again. You had Rashad Bateman on and off the field. You had no running game. You had no Lamar Jackson for a large portion of the season. So will Mark Andrews be great for a long time? Yeah, he will. But he might not be this great. At least I don't believe so. I think that he has. He was so dominant on the field. It wasn't.

getting lucky of, you know, he's, hey, he got six, he's normal six targets and he came down with the touchdown this time. No, it was the touchdown upside combined with a high reception, high total yardage. I can understand, like, I understand the argument of, well, Lamar missed a lot of games over the second half of the season. I would take that argument to try and go trade for Mark Andrews. Like, he is somebody that I want on.

my dynasty squad. I think he's easily a top three dynasty tight end at the moment. And this was a very, very big jump. It was. You're talking about a target jump from 88 to 154, nearly double the total receptions 58 to 107. I just don't think I agree with that because I know that, like Lamar has had.

He's definitely had more of a direct rapport with Hollywood Brown in the past. I just don't, I felt like it was no one left situation. Yeah, I mean, I understand that this could be one of those situations, but here's what we also know about Mark Andrews. He's been great since he's been in the league. Yeah. He's been a top five tight end every year other than his rookie year, which no rookies are good.

And now, you know, he's only 26 years old. He dominated the NFL. He is one of those bigger, stronger, faster than you tight ends that is, you know, a presence out there that you just can't cover. And while he did a lot more without Lamar Jackson than he did with Lamar Jackson during the course of this year, I also think that he proved that he can be the centerpiece.

of this offense in a way that I think going into next year, they can build this offense around him. But to illustrate it, because we're talking about what is the truth, and to illustrate Andy's point, there were four games without Lamar Jackson this year and 12 with him. He averaged 13.36 fancy points per game, half PPR, with Lamar, and 19.2 without Lamar. So he definitely did a lot more per game without Lamar.

I would just be willing to bet everything in the world that the target share comes down and that the offense can function outside of him next year. You know, J.K. Dobbins returning and Gus Edwards and another year of Rashad Bateman. He'll be a very interesting name in the offseason. So again, when you point that out, it's more what can you capitalize on? Like, can you get more for any other tied in in a Dynasty league right now than Mark Andrews? No, I think he's the number one tied in Dynasty. I think so, too. I look at him as he's still.

you more discounted than the other guys who would you draft if you were drafting uh you know a tight end um in a dynasty startup right i feel like mark andrews might be the first tight end it would be between him and pits because of youth but obviously whatever you want to say about oh maybe he's worse with lamar jackson lamar jackson throws touchdowns he's been great with lamar jackson you can't

Compare that to Kyle Pitts, and it's like, okay, you've got a maybe one year left of Mount Ryan, and then you hope that he someday finds a quarterback that can throw enough touchdowns his way. So, Mike, is your point more that he may be entering a multi-year Kelsey Peak time period? All the arguments of why this year was so much bigger than the other ones. Those totally make sense. But I just, I saw a player who, that was his, like, he took the jump.

in the NFL. He's always open, incredible hands. He's just, he's such a good player, and his situation is very stable, where he's young, has the new contract. Lamar Jackson is the guy. Meanwhile, like George Kittle, George Kittle is going to have a brand new quarterback throwing him the ball. Travis Kelsey is on the way out. Kyle Pitts is, it's not all hope and promise for him, because you saw a lot of really, really good things that Pitts is going to hit.

there still is a margin for Kyle Pitts, that is, well, you hope he gives you a season like Mark Andrews just did. Yeah, no question. I mean, you're going to have quarterback. Yes. You could have a new quarterback in a year in Atlanta. You will? Yeah. Travis Kelsey came in at number two. He was number one in consistency. He was more consistent over the course of the year than Andrews was, number one in the first half, number two in the second half. You know, he...

His margin for error, his margin for not being the great Zeus, you know, 92 for 11, 25, and 9 felt like a bad year. Oh, super disappointing. Only 1,100 yards, nine touchdowns, not even double-digit touchdowns. What a loser. And he was real close, total points-wise, with Andrews, was he not? He was pretty close, but he missed a game. So I believe he is, it wasn't a hair.

And even on a per game basis, I believe Andrews outscored Kelsey. Andrews was 14.6 and Kelsey was 13.5 per game. Kelsey still had a higher percentage of great games and good games slightly. More busts. Played much better against bottom 16 defenses, whereas Andrews performed better against top defenses, interestingly enough. And it was great on the road. Andrews was better at home. Led all tight-ins and third-down receptions.

I mean, we know what Kelsey is. The question about Kelsey, unfortunately, comes down to what he will be. Age is the only question to me. That's it. He is unfathomably talented. He's been the best tied in in the league over the last decade. He's tied to the best passing quarterback in the league. I mean, there's there is only one question, and it's when does it stop? That's it. Going into next year, you know, I feel like he.

very well should be drafted ahead of Mark Andrews. You know, we haven't seen it drop off yet in a redraft league, obviously in a dynasty league. This is where I think you should start looking to move on because he is older. I mean, you're 32 years old. This is where, you know, when I went looking at comps of other great Hall of Fame level, dominant tight ends who played a long time like Tony Gonzalez, 32 years old was kind of their.

Well, peak. Think about a player that Mike, who's the player Mike has traditionally despised on the show at tight-in position? Who said he was old busted? Who was old busted tight-in? Jimmy Graham? No? I mean, there's a lot of them. Yeah. Well, you have spent, we have all spent time speculating on Zacherts's demise, right? Ah, he's old busted. That was a phrase associated. No, it was washed. Okay, washed.

Well, Zacherts is younger than Travis Kelsey, is my point. Yeah, because he's a year younger than Travis Kelsey. So I'm illustrating that that is the time period in which it is fair to question. Now, Kelsey is as much of a unicorn at the tight-in position as Derek Henry is at the running back position. But I got to interject here. I'm looking at this great website, the fantasy footballers.com.com. And I just pulled up. Keyword.

Travis Kelsey's profile page. And I have never seen Travis Kelsey look like what he looks like on our profile page. I posted it in the Slack too. Is that what? Or did you find it independently? I found it totally independently. So we both found it both had a chuckle and had to share it. This is the mustache version of Travis Kelsey. Travis Kelsey short hair mustache. And but like a mustache that resembles it's split in the middle. It's it is split in the middle. It looks like a very finely manicured.

pair of eyebrows. It does. I mean, this is Eugene Levy's eyebrows on this fan's lip. This picture's unbelievable. Go to the fancy footballers.com. Look at the Travis Kelsey. Hopefully doesn't enjoy yourself. It does not look like him at all. I was like, wait, is this the right person? And he's also very confused in the picture. Is this picture hurt or help his dynasty stuff? It definitely hurts. I mean, you can't look at this and be like, that's the guy I want. He had a couple of those unforeseen games this year where he was absolutely a bust.

which were maybe small glimpses. I mean, we know you guys talked about it when you talked about Tyreek Hill and the wide receiver, the truth of that position and, you know, the average yards downfield. Like some things changed in the Kansas City offense by necessity. They had to adjust. It almost got them back to the Super Bowl. But whatever happened, whatever adjustments were being made left a bigger window for.

a bad game from Travis Kelsey this year than had been in the past. Yeah, 100%. He definitely had a couple of bad busts, but he also, I mean, in week 15, if you were in the playoffs, you played in week 16. Yeah. Is he still worth a second round in redraft? Yeah. Okay. Yeah. There is a huge point gap between the top two. Mark Andrews and Travis Kelsey and the next tight end on the list.

which last year there was a huge gap between Kelsey and the third. Yeah. Dalton Schultz. What? The doctor. The doctor. How did he get here? Sixth and consistent. He did it the Jason Wittenway. Consistency. Sixth in consistency this year ended up 24% great, 47% good, 29% bust. He also got here by sneaking in a number three overall finish in week 18 when no one cared. Ah, that's how we did it. And, um,

You know, he had a rough patch right in the middle of the year. I mean, if you had no tight end really of value, if you were planning on using Dalton Schultz from week seven, his by week through really week 11. Yeah, it was rough because it hit right when you finally bought in. Yes. Like when Dolan Schultz, the number one over on week three, you're like, oh, that's fun. Then he hits you with number six and it's.

This is a possibility that Dalton Schultz could be locked in. And then just a couple weeks later, he was destroying your soul for a month and a half. One finish inside the top 15.