Top 10 Things to Remember + Second Year Studs - Fantasy Football Podcast for 2/24

That seemed like just, I mean, he probably likes prunes. That was the viewpoint on the internet. Even though he's not very old, the viewpoint was like. He's in plumage. Yeah. So there are opportunities there.

And I'm going to lean a little bit on evidence that we've seen for some of these guys. Yeah, it's so sometimes we outthink ourselves. You look at all these advanced statistics and we dig as deep as we can to find the diamonds in all the rough statistics. But the reality is the greatest indicator of future success. Yep. Is previous success. So yeah. Yeah. So I'm going to try to remember that going into 2022. Number five. Calling this one rookie QBs.

Give wide receivers. The hebe-jeebies. Okay. Jason doesn't have any commentary on that one? There was no food involved. You like jujubis? No. Go on, Mike. I just, you know, sort of. There was a rhyme. Yeah. It's in there somewhere. I mean, you were the last one to come up with your names. I don't hold it against you. Since 2004, 70% of the time a rookie quarterback fails to produce a top 36 wide receiver.

That single sentence is very powerful. Full stop. Number four. Say it one more time. Since 2004, a rookie quarterback fails to produce a top 36 wide receiver 70% of the time. Top 36 isn't even that great. Correct. And we can look at this last year. Let's get more specific about it because last year that was.

If you're newer to football, like say you've only been diving in the last handful of years or so, that was an outrageously touted quarterback class. Like the first three picks were quarterbacks. There's always, usually a quarterback in the top 10, sometimes too, but for the first three picks to be a quarterback, and then you had Justin Fields and Mack Jones in...

I think there were both top 15 picks. I don't remember where Mac ended up. Yeah, Mac was like 12, I think. Oh, was it 15? Okay. But this was an outrageously touted quarterback class of this is the new crop that will set the standard moving forward as we lose Rivers and Brady and Rogers and Rogers of these players. These are going to be the guys that step up. Well, in Jacksonville, Marvin Jones finished as a wide receiver 34. So, I mean, he made it in the threshold, while Leviska-Cenault on that team had the worst.

season ever for someone who's seen 95 or more targets. Looking at the analytics and metrics of Levisca Chanel, he breaks all math of how bad it was. In New England, Jacoby Myers, supposed to be a PPR machine born in Aguilor, high value free agents. Me.

Elijah Moore was the one who flashed with a rookie quarterback. With a rookie quarterback. So that gives me even more confidence that Elijah Moore is about to break out and be the real deal. In Chicago, Alan Robinson vanished into absolute nothingness. Darnell Mooney flashed, but when you go back and really look, the majority of his big games, it wasn't actually Justin Fields who was the quarterback. He was hurt at the time. Brandon Cooks here and there with Davis Mills and Houston, but they just, the rookie quarterbacks.

are alluring. It's the new shiny toy. What can someone do with this player? But you just have to remember a place like Carolina, a place like Washington. Those have, they have, it's not like we're complete fools. It's generally a situation where you have a player that you love or you really, really like. Maybe it's Denver with Judy.

or McLaurin in Washington or DJ Moore in Carolina. There's always an alluring fantasy option at the wide receiver position that tempts you. And every fantasy player at a certain point has value. So it comes down to your opportunity cost. So be informed and be judicious when you're going in on these wide receivers in the draft of realizing.

Just because it's a rookie quarterback, or I should say because it's a rookie quarterback, the likelihood that this player is that you had the hope for is going to actually take the leap to be a superstar. It's very low because they aren't good for fantasy football because they're rookies. They're just learning how to play in the NFL. I am curious now that you brought up those numbers.

what like a last third of the year looks like for some of those players. Sure. Versus the whole year because, you know, if, for example, Trevor Lawrence got it going in the back half, maybe Marvin Jones is relevant then. Elijah Moore is later in the season. Yes, and that definitely can happen. And the issue we get is outliers pop up. Justin Herbert came, put his Superman cape on and supported Keenan Allen and was.

like was fantastic as a rookie, had good options around him. And then you think, well, Justin Herbert did it. So all these other guys can do it. He is the outlier. He is not the standard. You said 70% fails. That means 30% do produce a top 36. But do you want to bet on the 70 or bet on the 30? You take, that's a, that's an easy bet. Yeah. And there's a lot of situations where it's not even the quarterback's fault, right? As a rookie, you are protecting a rookie.

Sure. You know, the coach is protecting. It's all part of it. So like Herbert had this ability. They gave him carte blanche to just like chuck it as a rookie, which is rare. Like Mac Jones's Justin Fields. I mean, Justin Fields, we kept begging them to let him throw the football. So it's an interesting thing and something we should remember because that is a bad bet early in drafts to go the 30% route on somebody you think you really need.

And fantasy football is a game of numbers. We're playing probability and range of outcomes. We had thought about this going into last year. Alan Robinson is the perfect name to say, let's move him down five or six spots. We probably will not get him because other people will draft him ahead of us because of the we all like Justin Fields. Like we all were believers. He was such a trap too with how bad his quarterbacks had been. Yeah. Robinson? Yeah. That was why people liked it. But that would have been a.

A perfect tip to help avoid the biggest trap in fantasy this year. Number four. I call this one, tight ends, more like loose stools. You got them. There's that first oppression. Yeah, you're welcome. Still going. Oh, they're not here. I liked it. These are our people now, Mike. Here's a reality. Tightens still suck. And tight ends are always going to suck. Draft one.

early. That's my big takeaway here. T.J. Hawkinson was good. He was like a win this year and he sucked, right? Like, like he was good. Painful to roster. But painful to roster. Dallas Goddard this last year. Man, he was going to be so good if, oh no, Zach Hertz came back to the team. He was going to just, he was going to take off. Oh, wait. Then Zach Kurtz left. Dallas Goddard still sucked. No offense. We was going to hit that.

third year leap. He's an athletic freak. His profiles off the charts. He sucked. Oh, but Higby. It's a strong language. Higby going to Hig beast without Gerald Everett there. They're going to throw to, Higby sucked. Robert Tunian, he broke out and he's playing with the MVP of the league who can keep up that touchdown pace. That's true. Robert Tunion sucked. Oh, man. Gassiki, Jano.

Ingram, everyone sucked, just like every single year. Tight-ins suck. They all suck. He's so mean. Well, but that's not a mean. That's on the tight ends. Oh, come on. Or should I call them loose stools? So look, draft Kelsey, draft Mark Andrews. If you want to try Pitts or Kittle, sure. All the other guys, they're going to suck. So draft a tight-in early or just punt. Punt forever. Agreed.

Don't draft these middle tight ends. They're all going to suck. I feel like the joke is loose caboose. Yeah, I get it. But loose caboose. Like you're making a butt joke into a poop joke. You can't see the leap to get from a butt joke to a poop joke. I'm just trying. One literally comes out of the other. I mean, I'm just saying it's pretty on the nose. How are we doing, producers? You guys still proud of. Working here? Oh, yeah.

Yeah. My mom's not. That's understandable. Number three. All right, I'm going to call this New Laundry, New Problems. What's your favorite detergent? Oh, gosh. Tie. You're a tied man? Yeah. Do you use the pods? Yeah, the pods. The pods are delicious. Oh, we're back to eating. No, no, no. No, no, no, no. Don't eat the pods. No, no, no, no, no. We know our audience. They would eat the pods. They look delicious, though.

Kyle, you probably, yeah, he's nodding. He's eating some pies before. Don't eat them. They do look delicious. Yes, don't do it. That's their fault. I can't name these anymore. That's the truth. New laundry, new problems. I'm talking about crafting a narrative as to why a free agent pickup will always work in their new destination because the narrative writes itself, right? When you are signed to a new team, guess what? They wanted you. That's built into it.

So that's part of the narrative. They were pursued. They were chosen by that team. They were given money. They were given capital. The local fans are excited. They're buying the jerseys. It's all built into changing teams, putting on the new laundry. Well, here were the 2021 free agents who changed teams with the most money by position. The running backs, Kenyon Drake, Jamal Williams, Mike Davis. Wide receivers were Goloday, Corey Davis, Curtis, Samuel, Nelson Aguilar, Kendrick Warren, Marvin Jones, Will Fuller, AJ Green.

AJ Green was the best of that group. That is accurate. Man, the free agents got hurt. Tight ends. Johnny Smith, Hunter, Henry, Kyle Rudolph. Look, it rarely works and you hope it will work and you can write the story as to why you think it will work. You're stuck in that reality. But guess what? Every single free agent signing has zero snaps with their new offense, zero rapport with their coaches.

They've moved their families to a new home. They've got a new routine. And they're signed without your fantasy team considered whatsoever. You know, I think Johnny Smith might have been the best example of this. Paid a bunch of money. Immediately. And I know that there's NFL criticism for the signing. But the plan for Johnny Smith wasn't built out of your fantasy production. It was built on the other things he can do on the field, running these two tight-in sets.

It's more often than not, and we've said it a little bit, especially with wide receivers. We're like, just don't paint too rosy a picture because it just doesn't work out that often. But this year really showed across all positions that like the rose color glasses, they just didn't produce any fantasy production. So please temper that story that is being told.

And it might take time on a new team. It might never happen on a new team because the roles are just, they're changed. Yeah, when Mike Williams signs a $70 million deal this offseason and to be the dude, now he's not going to be in Keenan Allen's shadow, it's probably not going to be an upgrade for him. Yeah. Yeah. And it's it definitely, and like Mike said, everybody has a price in the draft, but it's probably not going to be the price that people are paying.

Like he's not going to produce up to that ADP level. Number two. Take something for that rookie fever. Because this is a reminder. If you are new to the game, what Jamar Chase just did and what Justin Jefferson did a year ago, that is not normal. You can't stop me, Mike? I'm going in. And rookies are, like, we're in this, we're in Dynasty time. Like, I'm watching the tape.

Burks? I'm watching Burks in college. I'm going, man, this dude's going to be an absolute stud. But you got to try and pull it back, calm down, and remember the odds of these players turning into real difference makers. It is low. You're talking receivers. Rookie wide, yes, okay. Thank you. Rookie wide receivers, running backs, they go right in. Outstanding. But rookie wide receivers, and this is an ADP, this is draft related. Everyone has their value.

at certain points in the draft, but don't get out of control. Looking back at rookie wide receivers drafted in the first round, this is all the way back to 2002, 77, 77 wide receivers drafted in the first round. Four of them were top 12 wide receivers. Now it's been in recent history of you had Chase and Jefferson before them was Odell and Evans. But other than that, you're talking a complete goose when it comes to predicting that of,