The TRUTH About Fantasy RBs: Part 2 + Javonte Hype - Fantasy Football Podcast for 1/27

pretending that Kevin James is Sean Peyton. Like, I just couldn't do it. I couldn't make that leap. Okay. Yeah, I mean, that makes some. Stung by some bees. All right. Back into the truth of the running back position. If you missed the last episode, we went through the top 10 running backs by Fantasy Finish. We looked at the percentage of games that they had 21 or more points. That's what we define as a great game. 11 or more is good. Seven or fewer is bust.

And we don't count miss games against their consistency score. We're looking at games that they were actually out there on the field. What did they give you when you counted on them, when you put them in your fantasy lineups? And so we went through Jonathan Taylor and Joe Mixen and Echler. And you can go listen to that. Today we're going to go from number 11 on down the list. And we'll start with Nick Chubb, who ended up at 11. His consistency rank was actually 15, which is, I think, a huge disappointment compared to what people expected.

First half of the year, 11th, second half, 21st. This was not what you, really, this is not the season you wanted from Nick Chubb if you drafted. No, it's not the season you wanted from the Browns. And when we're talking about what is the truth of Nick Chubb of Kareem Hunt, I believe that the truth is you have to look at the beginning of the season and project that forward more than the end of the year. It was week seven when Baker Mayfield missed with the shoulder injury that happened in week six. So really.

The first five weeks of the season were the Browns as you would hope going into next year if Baker is healthy and the team is playing well. And at that time, Nick Chubb was pretty good. You know, three of those five weeks were top ten running back performances. And during that same time, Cream Hunt was dominating. So the run game was working. The offense was working. They were a much better team before that shoulder injury to Baker. Chubb.

kind of represents the non-pass-catching running back scenario for your fantasy team. He had a higher percentage of great games than everybody except for Mixon and Jonathan Taylor. But, you know, 36%. But then you look at the other games, and he had the ability to disappear. He only had 20 receptions on the year. We know the story with Nick Chubb. So you got these games that won you weeks when you had him, but then you had disappearing acts when the offense wasn't functioning, like you said.

Yeah, and that's the worry with anyone that doesn't catch the passes is they're not game script proof. There can be games where they completely let you down. You will have that with Nick Chubb. And the worst that the Browns are as a team, the more that those game scripts are going to be bad and they need to throw the ball and it's not Nick Chubb's forte and he's off. You know, he was on a 17-game pace of 276 carries and that's not what you want.

from a true ground and pound. You're saying you want more? Yeah, you want 300 plus carries for someone that's not going to catch the ball. 1259 yards, eight touchdowns. There's no debate that he's one of the best pure runners in the game. I mean, from a running back perspective, there aren't, you know, you put him in the Indianapolis behind that line this year in that system. You get the same production, I think, is Jonathan Taylor.

Yeah, sure. I agree. He's got every bit of the talent. However, in this offense and the way they utilize him, I think I would rather draft Kareem Hunt next year. Not for the same value, but for where Kareem Hunt's going to go in the draft. Kreme Hunt had 187 carries, 803 yards and five touchdowns. He was 45th, fantasy-wise, 34 receptions, missed a ton of games, obviously.

I mean, before he went out to injury, the first six weeks of the season, there was only one game where he wasn't an RB2 or better. And he had a couple monster games. So then do you want to live in, like just philosophically as a fantasy player? Do you want to live in this world? Or like, would you be comfortable with Nick Chubb is your one? No. Okay. And then do you want to even mess around with this universe, this dual back universe? I would rather have.

Cream Hunt for a value later in drafts than Chubb. Are you fine with Hunt as a two? Your RB2. Yeah, I am fine with Hunt as my RB2. He is still extremely talented, consistent, much more game script proof because if they're down, he's going to be catching the ball. And if they're up, he could be part of the reason why. Yeah, consistency-wise, Cream Hunt was 22nd. Chubb was 15th. And despite missing a ton of games.

You still ended up with 34 receptions. All right. Aaron Jones came in at 12. This is another season that needs reviewing. 17th inconsistency. Got better in the second half of the year was 11th in the second half. Pretty much the same against good and bad defenses. Same at home and on the road. Six most running back receptions. Ninth most red zone touches.

How do you feel about this season from Aaron Jones? This season feels like he kind of pulled a rabbit out of the hat to me. I feel when I just think about Aaron Jones, you drafted him, you relied on him. I feel extremely disappointed, which is crazy because he was the running back 12. He wasn't terrible, but I think, you know, you were hoping you had. He's drafted as the running back seven. Yeah, I mean, you were you were hoping that you had.

You know, the previous two years, he was top five running back, really dominant seasons. And what happened this season was really an A.J. Dillon problem. If it was, if he did the same season, but A.J. Dillon wasn't coming strong onto the scene. I think the outlook for Aaron Jones would be better. But I worry that as time goes on, it's going to be more and more split.

Yeah, I think that's the right worry to have. And this is a devil you knew versus devil you didn't know situation. People weren't twisting the departure of Jamal Williams into, well, Iron Jones is just going to be a monumental pass catching running back. He's going to take over a lot of third downs. They're not going to trust Dylan. And what really happened is Dylan got almost, I mean, Dylan got more carries on the year than.

Aaron Jones did. So that's step one of evaluating the situation is AJ Dylan ended up with more total carries, more total rushing yardage, more total rushing touchdowns. And the second half of the year, they started using AJ Dylan in the passing. He had 47 targets. That's, or that would, that would be his pace from the second half of the year. I think it was, I think the real season was worse than the outcome. I think.

Aaron Jones salvaged the entire year with six receiving touchdowns compared to two for Dylan. Otherwise, you could argue Dylan had a better year. And you certainly got better value drafted as the running back 34. Where does Aaron Jones go in next year's draft? This year he was a first round selection back of the first. How far does he fall going in? How far would he need to fall for you to confidently take him given the fact that the changeover

the new incumbent getting more carries and more work, where would you feel comfortable grabbing Aaron Jones? This is obviously assuming Aaron Rogers is back as a Packer because otherwise he tumbles forever. I actually don't have as much concern. Like I'm comfortable taking him right around RB 10. Really?

Yes. Because I don't think anything's going to change between this dynamic. I don't think you go into next year. I don't think A.J. Dillon did anything that's going to take more work from Aaron Jones. What I actually would be concerned about as a fantasy player is weapons beyond Devante. If the team adds past catching weapons beyond Devante that the general world thinks are good, that will siphon the work that's valuable for Aaron Jones. You just looked at this last game. It was...

whatever, 11 targets for Devante Adams, 10 for Aaron Jones, one for everybody else. That's the valuable asset that Aaron Jones represents is the five or six receiving touchdowns. I'm not concerned about, like, I don't think we're going to go into next year and AJ Dylan is going to further dwarf the rushing work of Jones. I think he does. I think AJ Dylan has proven himself as the season went along and coming into year three, I think he gets more rushing work.

You know, that's just how that's how I view it. So I would be really scared to take Aaron Jones in the top 10. Obviously, he's very, very talented. They just paid him a ton of money. And I didn't see anything on the field. No. This wasn't Aaron Jones, we don't like you. So we're putting.

AJ Dillon out there to me. Correct. This was just finding the balance. And he still looked great. I mean, Aaron Jones is a very talented running back. He didn't look like he's old busted. I just worry if his opportunities keep going down, it's very difficult for, you know, to draft a guy at 10 who had 171 carries. You're not even hitting the 200 number. Yeah, I mean, that's the Alvin Camara formula. He's getting, what, he missed a couple games this year, Aaron Jones did.

So you're probably close to that number. What's his career high in carries? We should look that out. His career high is 236. So he had over 200 the previous two seasons and then was down at 171 this last year. Alvin Camara is definitely the comp. And ironically, it's always been that, you know, they had, Alvin Camer had the better. So is Austin Eccler. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So, but maybe these situations mirror themselves where you're going to be more comfortable with the Cream Hunt and A.J. Dylan. Then you will be with Nick Job.

in Aaron Jones. Yeah. I think you are completely correct. I would rather have the past catching specialist in both, but one of them is cheaper and one of them is more expensive in Aaron Jones. So I. A.J. Dillon will be more inflated ADP-wise under this narrative than Kareem Hunt will be. Great. Kareem Hunt situation has been there for a while.

Agreed. And Cream Hunt was injured the second half of the year. Cream Hunt, I think, will be a really good value next year. I don't think there's anything you can say to change that. I think you're absolutely right. The Browns were bad. They dealt with injuries. Baker looked bad. Nobody's going to be clamoring over themselves to get Cream Hunt, and I'll happily scoop him up. He drops to the sixth round. I would love to grab someone that is as talented as him.

as good a pass catcher in the sixth. Now, it'll be a whole different story of Aaron Rogers leaves, which he did say that, like you said on yesterday's or Tuesday's show, well before free agency, we will know. That's what his quote was. I'm going to hold you to that, Aaron. Right. Yeah. We're going to get into number 13 on the list, Damien Harris momentarily. We want to thank our friends at Code Academy for supporting this podcast. Maybe out there you're listening. It's been a...

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